₦airaland Forum

Come Saturday, the curtain will be drawn on the
2015 polls with the conduct of governorship and
State House of Assembly elections across most
states of the federation. The outcome of the March
28 presidential contest is expected to have an
effect and alter projections in the gubernatorial
race in many states. In others, with the contest
between President Goodluck Jonathan and General
Muhammadu Buhari resolved, local issues would
determine the outcome this weekend. Yusuf Alli,
Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam
Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan,
Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo, Assistant Editor
and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the
gubernatorial and assembly polls and project likely
outcomes.
One week is a long time in politics. Seven days
ago General Muhammadu Buhari was just the
presidential candidate of the All Progressives
Congress (APC). Today, he’s Nigeria’s President-
Elect. Although he’s not on the ballot in the
gubernatorial contests that would play out
across the country this weekend, his influence
looms large over the whole affair.
Expectedly, APC and its candidates would benefit
from association with his name in the North
West, North East and North Central. In the South
West and South South, many are increasingly
consideration whether they want to belong to the
opposition in the new dispensation.
It is going to be battle royale in the 19 Northern
states where the
APC will slug it out with a depressed Peoples’
Democratic
Party (PDP). Other parties in contention in some
states are the Social Democratic Party (SDP)
and the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).
The battle in the North is unique because of the
following factors: strong party affiliation; gale of
defections; the likely bandwagon effect of the
victory of Buhari; ethno-religious configuration;
the personality of the candidates; zoning / power
shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy.
NORTH WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi,
Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding,
the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-
Buhari. Many candidates are expected to ride to
victory on the president-elect’s coattails.
KEBBI
Seventeen candidates want to be governor in
Kebbi State but the odds favour the APC’s Sen.
Atiku Bagudu. His closest rival is Gen. Sarkin
Yaki Bello of the PDP. Although APC earned
567,883 votes to PDP’s 100,972 at the
presidential poll, its leaders are working round
the clock to seal victory on April 11. One of the
party’s leaders said: “We are not taking things
for granted at all; we want to make it a finished
business.”
The imposition of the PDP candidate by outgoing
Governor Saidu
Dakingari triggered the defection of many party
stalwarts to APC. They include ex-FCT Minister,
Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu
Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleiman Mohammed
Argungu and the APC governorship candidate.
It was not surprising that APC had a clean
sweep last Saturday. Barring last minute game-
changer, the internal wrangling in PDP has laid
the foundation for APC’s victory.
Verdict: APC to win
KATSINA
This is the home state of Buhari. His image
looms large over it and the bandwagon might
dictate the outcome of the governorship
election. The gubernatorial candidate of PDP,
Musa Nashuni needs to do something
extraordinary to match the hurricane support of
the APC candidate, ex-Speaker Aminu Masari.
Verdict: APC to win comfortably.
KANO
This is safe political terrain for APC where it
polled a massive 1,
903,999 votes against PDP’s 215, 779 last
Saturday. The landslide victory of has sent jitters
down the spine of PDP members who appear
resigned to fate. The contest would be mainly
between APC’s Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and
Salihu Muhammad Sagir of the PDP.
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
KADUNA
Having lost the presidency last Saturday, the
only hope left for Vice President Namadi Sambo
is to win the governorship slot for PDP in Kaduna
State. His political godson and incumbent
governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero faces a
Herculean electoral contest against the
candidate of the APC, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the
former Minister of FCT.
For APC to have garnered 1,127,760 votes at the
presidential poll against PDP’s 484,085, Sambo
does not need a soothsayer to tell him that his
party’s prospects for this weekend are bleak.
Although APC is working against complacency,
other strong things in its favour are the Buhari
factor; the poor performance of Yero and the
desire for change; the choice of Barnabas Bala
Bantex, who is loved in Southern Kaduna, as
deputy governorship candidate; and the
defection of many stalwarts of PDP to APC.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
This is an APC stronghold. In the presidential
election, the party floored PDP with 612, 202 to
144, 833 votes. Nothing substantial may change
during the governorship poll because the masses
are still behind ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his
political godson, Abdulaziz Yari. Since 1999, PDP
has not won the governorship election in
Zamfara State. There are 19 other candidates
trying their luck against Yari – among them ex-
Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of PDP.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
During his visit to the Presidential Villa on Friday,
Governor Sule
Lamido was quick to acknowledge that the PDP
was rejected at the polls last Saturday by
Nigerians. He was also forthright in setting the
template for the governorship election when he
said: “There is a tendency for bandwagon effect
but it is up to us to work very hard.”
The battle in Jigawa is between the APC
candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and
PDP’s Mallam Aminu Ibrahim Ringim.
Others are Sardauna Yaro (APGA) and Murtala
Musa Galamawa (NCP). The race is a litmus test
for the political survival of Lamido who has
developed Jigawa in an unprecedented manner in
the last eight years.
As a grassroots mobiliser, Lamido might not go
down without a good fight. But the Buhari factor
might just prove too much for him.
Verdict: APC to win
SOKOTO
The governorship contest is also a family affair
in Sokoto where the leading candidate, Speaker
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (APC) is pitched against
his political mentor, Sen. Abdalla Wali of the
PDP. When Wali was elected a Senator in 1999,
it was his lot to search for a competent
legislative aide and he found one in the young
Tambuwal. The rest is now history. Having been
inspired by his time working in the Senate, he
took a plunge into politics and rose to the peak
as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
The APC, ably coordinated by Governor Aliyu
Wammako, remains the party to beat in Sokoto.
The party’s vote haul of 671, 926 at the poll on
March 28 was a signal that the PDP might not
go far at the governorship level. Its lingering
internal squabbles occasioned by the
shortchanging of Deputy Governor Mukhtar
Shagari may make the defeat of the outgoing
ruling party a fait accompli.
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
NORTH CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP
controls the state governments in the zones four
other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi.
What used to be a PDP stronghold has been
devastated by Hurricane Buhari. However, the
results this weekend may still be determined by a
complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is
never far from the surface in this zone.
BENUE
Watching Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue
State on the television on last Friday revealed
the amount of pressure he’s been under since he
was humbled by Senator Barnabas Gemade at
last Saturday’s senatorial contest.
With the PDP losing two out of the three
senatorial seats in the state, the governorship
election could be slipping from its grasp. At the
time of writing this report, the momentum was
clearly on the side of APC with several PDP
heavyweights billed to defect to APC in the days
before the governorship election. The loss of
these big names could prove psychologically
devastating for the demoralized PDP.
The top candidates are ex-Minister Samuel
Ortom (APC) backed by Sen. George Akume,
former PDP national chairman, Sen.Barnabas
Gemade; ex-Minister Audu Ogbeh among others.
Suswam’s anointed candidate is Prince
Terhemen Tarzor.
Verdict: APC to win.
PLATEAU
For the first time since 1999, the fortunes of
PDP in Plateau State dipped last Saturday
pointing to the significance of the crack in its
fold. At the presidential ballot, the party secured
549, 615 votes to defeat APC which garnered
429, 140 votes. The demand for power shift and
other issues like the imposition of PDP
candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok might make the
governorship poll tougher. The people of
Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the
imposition Pwajok from Plateau North on them
after the eight-year tenure of Governor David
Jang.
Out of the 17 local governments in the state,
Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is
left with five. Motivated by the urge for power
shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau
have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in
PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon.
Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his
deputy is the immediate past
Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof.
Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part,
the PDP picked its candidate from Plateau North
and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau
Central.
The outgoing Governor Jang is locked in the fight
of his life because Pwajok loss will overshadow
his political legacy. He is likely to take
advantage of the high population strength of
Plateau North, the church and Berom ethnic
nationality to upstage the APC candidate.
Verdict: PDP to win
KWARA
There are 16 governorship candidates in Kwara.
The crowd notwithstanding, the real contest is
between incumbent Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed
(APC) and Sen. Simeon Sule Ajibola of PDP.
A coronation is likely in the state going by the
mood of voters at last Saturday’s presidential
election where they voted massively for APC
with 302,146 votes compared to PDP’s 32,602.
The problems with PDP in the state are wrong
choice of candidate; restriction of the political
influence of its candidate, Ajibola to only Kwara
South Senatorial District; the recourse to
religious and ethnic politics by Ajibola;
abandonment by other PDP governorship
aspirants except Prof Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem
(the DG of Ajibola Campaign Organization) as
well as the sudden loss of support from the
centre and PDP financier in the state, Hajiya
Bola Shagaya.
On its part, APC has gained more supporters with
its ability to keep the state united; the strong
platform of the late Wazirin of Ilorin,
Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki; the political support
from Sen. Gbemisola Saraki; the religious factor;
and the bandwagon effect of Buhari’s victory.
Verdict: The state is 70-30 in favour of APC.
KOGI
There is no governorship poll in Kogi State but
the struggle for control of the State House of
Assembly will be between APC, PDP and Accord
Party. Last Saturday, APC won all the three
Senatorial seats in the state across 21 local
government areas. While Accord is stronger in
Yagba West, APC and PDP will slug it out in 20
others.
Verdict: APC to win majority in the assembly
NASARAWA
The results of the presidential election in
Nasarawa State have shown that the
governorship poll is an even fight between the
APC candidate, Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura
and PDP’s Yusuf Mohammed Igabi. Last
Saturday, PDP garnered 273, 460 while APC
secured 236,838 votes. But a huge number of
votes that could have gone either way were
voided.
The indices which will shape the race are
ethnicity; religion; godfathers; coalition of forces
and performance in office.
The other candidates in the governorship race
are Hajiya A.
Mbaka (LP); Labaran Maku (APGA); Tanko
Malami (PPA); Zakka Zaggi Rabo (ADC); Stanley
John Mamud (Accord) and Haruna Shuaibu
Iliyasu (ID).
Findings reveal that if there is an alliance
between Maku, who is
from the influential Eggon ethnic group and
another candidate, the governor may walk on
tight rope. The selling points of Al-Makura are
his humility, sterling performance in office, ability
to resolve the incessant crises between the
natives and Fulani herdsmen; and earning the
confidence of the peasant.
Verdict: Battleground
NIGER
The humiliating defeat of Governor Babangida
Aliyu in last Saturday’s Niger East Senatorial
District election foretold what may happen in the
governorship election in the state. Apart from
Babangida, most PDP leaders are yet to recover
from what one of them described as the “Buhari
Tsunami.”
The battle in Niger State is purely that of former
Army
Generals and officers whose children are
contesting. The APC candidate, Abubakar Sani
Bello is the son of a former Army chief and a
key stakeholder in MTN, Col. Sani Bello (retd).
The PDP candidate, Umar Mohammed Nasko is a
scion of Gen. Gado Nasko’s family. Investigation
also confirmed that the APC candidate is
married to the daughter of a former Head of
State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar.
At last Saturday’s election APC received 657,
678 votes to PDP’s 149, 222. The gap may prove
too big to bridge before this weekend’s contest.
Verdict: APC to win

NORTH-EAST
The critical factor in the North-East is the
insurgency and how the Jonathan administration
has handled it. That clearly weighed heavily in the
minds of voters as they punished the president and
his party at the polls last weekend. That pattern is
expected to be repeated this Saturday. However,
ethnic and religious factors could also affect
outcomes in Adamawa and Taraba.
BAUCHI
The earning of a paltry 86, 085 votes by the PDP
in Bauchi State during the presidential election
compared to APC’s 931, 598 votes has left other
parties with a little hope in the governorship poll.
Unless a miracle happens, the battle is over
because the bandwagon effect of the poll
success of the President-elect would be to the
advantage of the APC governorship candidate,
Muhammed Abdullahi Abubakar. If it is true that
Governor Isa Yuguda installed both the APC and
PDP
candidates, it must be a deft political move
which may see him winning wherever the
pendulum swings.
The other nine candidates include Danladi Musa
(MPPP); Mukhtar
Haladu (AD); Bello Ibrahim (APGA); Salisu Musa
(UPN); Mato Musa (UPP); Bala Musa (PDC);
Abdullahi Adamu Usman (KOWA); Jatau
Mohammad Auwal (PDP); and Musa Yakubu
Wanka (ACPN).
Verdict: APC to win comfortably
GOMBE
Despite placing Sen. Danjuma Goje under house
arrest, APC still won the presidential election
with 361, 245 to PDP’s 96, 873 votes. The
tension in the state accounted for the low
turnout of voters. Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo
of PDP is in dire straits because of the
formidable forces arrayed against him.
He has an acceptable opponent in Mohammed
Inuwa Yahaya of the APC, but the decisive
factor would be the Buhari phenomenon. The
rest of the field are Hassan Kidda (LP);
Muhammed Ibrahim (AD); Ahmed Modibo Wali
(APGA); Abdulhamid Sadiq (UDP); Yusuf Haruna
(NNPP); Jafar Abubakar(ADC); Umar Ardo (PDC)
; Abubakar Hashidu (Accord); Gidado Hashidu
(ACPN) and Muhammad Yelwa Daudu (SDP).
Verdict: APC victory.
TARABA
Although ex-Minister of Niger Delta Affairs,
Darius Dickson Ishaku of the PDP is the leading
candidate, Sen. Aisha Jummai Alhassan is
closing in on him.
The outcome of the presidential election in
Taraba State suggests a tight governorship poll
on Saturday because while PDP scored
310, 800 votes, APC was able to get 261, 326.
This trend left a
difference of 49, 474 votes between the parties.
With more hard
work, the table could turn against PDP at the
governorship level unless the ruling party in the
state is more circumspect in tackling the Buhari
bandwagon effect. The factors that may
ultimately determine the winner include ethnicity,
religion, and the disposition of former Minister of
Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma. The PDP
candidate is Danjuma’s boy and that guarantees
him the edge as far as funding is concerned.
Others seeking the office are Kabiru Umar (PDM)
; Hamman
Mohammed (PPN); Razak Umar (LP); Gambo
Usman (UDP); Bello Mohammed (PPA); Charles
Buri (AA); Umar Arabi (DPP); Kabiru Bala
(ACPN); and David Sabo Kente (SDP).
Verdict: PDP to win
BORNO
The declaration of Gambo Lawan as the PDP
governorship candidate in Borno State by the
Federal High Court, Abuja has thrown the party
into disarray. The decision saw a former
Governor of Borno State, Sen. Modu Ali Sheriff
losing out in his bid to install his godson as
governor of the state. The development has
forced many PDP members to stand aloof and
watch how Lawan will weather the storm.
Thus, Lawan is going into the governorship
election as a political
orphan. With APC’s huge votes of 473, 543 in
Borno State during the presidential election and
PDP’s paltry 25,640 votes, the outcome of the
governorship poll is predictable.
Verdict: APC victory
YOBE
The APC is already in celebratory mood here
following its overwhelming victory at the
presidential election where it earned
446, 265 votes and left PDP with 25, 526.
Governor Ibrahim Gaidam(APC) is leading other
contestants like ex-Minister Adamu Maina Waziri
( who is becoming a veteran governorship
candidate); Buka Abba Isa (AD); Muhammad
Musa Lawal (APGA); Alli Gunsama Jallaba (NCP)
. The fact that the APC family had been united is
strength for the party. On the other hand, the
PDP has been battling divisions within its ranks
since it concluded its governorship primaries.
Verdict: APC to win
ADAMAWA
It is a tough fight among four strong candidates
in the state. They
are the APC’s Senator Jibrilla Bindow; the SDP
candidate, Marcus Gundiri, who narrowly lost to
ex-Governor Murtala Nyako in 2011; the PDP
candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (a former
chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC) and the candidate of the
PDM, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo.
With the backing of the Christian community,
especially in Adamawa North, Gundiri is set to
give APC candidate, Bindow a good fight. The
APC’s leadership at the national level needs to
intervene by prevailing on ex-Vice President
Atiku Abubakar to forgive Bindow the political
sins he had allegedly committed or else Gundiri
might have a slim win.
Already, there is pressure on the PDM candidate,
Modibbo to step down for Gundiri in what
appears to be a last minute accord. Although
APC secured 374, 701 votes during the
presidential election against PDP’s 251, 664,
Ribadu is facing opposition from within his party.
Some influential leaders of the party are behind
the campaign for a protest vote against Ribadu.
Verdict: Adamawa is too close to call.
SOUTH SOUTH
As projected by this newspaper, President
Jonathan won last weekend’s polls comfortably in
the South South zone. He is not on the ballot as
the states choose their governors this Saturday.
His loss could dampen the enthusiasm of his party
men. The prospect of life in opposition could also
affect the way some states vote. But in the final
analysis local issues of power shift and balancing
could prove decisive.
CROSS RIVER
Going by the results posted by the PDP in the
presidential race, its governorship candidate,
Senator Ben Ayade, should be awaiting mere
coronation next Saturday.
Voters massively chose PDP above other parties
at the presidential election. It scored 414,863 to
APC’s 28,368. Such a wide margin makes any
upset unlikely for the APC or any other party.
The incumbency factor is also in favour in
Ayade. His party has always won the state and
has seemingly impenetrable structure in all the
nooks and crannies.
But politics is never as simple as ABC. Things
are not always what they look. A seemingly
innocuous incident can upturn things in politics,
turning a dominant party into an opposition in no
time. While Ayade remains the clear favourite to
grab the votes owing by the victory of his party
in all local governments of the state at the
presidential poll, the emergence of Gen
Muhammadu Buhari as President-elect could
sway votes in the direction of the APC.
Its governorship candidate, Odey Ochicha, is no
means a push-over. The staff of National
Petroleum Investment Management Services
(NPIMS) has deep pockets and wide network. He
is considered approachable and accessible but
critics say he lacks political experience and has
never won any election.
There is talk that voters could look his way so as
not to be in the opposition with APC in power at
federal level but that remains to be seen. Except
that and the unthinkable happens, Ayade might
be on his way to winning the election.
Verdict: PDP to win
AKWA IBOM
As far as many members of the APC in Akwa-
Ibom are concerned, the 953,304 votes scored
by President Jonathan in the state were just
concocted. They claimed there were no elections
in Akwa-Ibom. Some who accepted elections
held alleged the exercise was marred by
irregularities and manipulations.
The 58,411 votes for Buhari, they said, were just
allocated to the president-elect. Realistically
speaking, no one expected Buhari to win Akwa-
Ibom going by the traditional voting pattern and
mood of the state. But the massive margin
enjoyed by Jonathan convinced people there was
more to the poll than meets the eyes.
Come April 11, APC’s governorship candidate,
Umana Umana, will be out to prove the large
margin in Akwa Ibom by PDP was a fluke. He is
from Uyo district with the largest voting
population in the state. As former Secretary to
the State Government (SSG), he has a wide
network that could be handy.
His candidature is boosted by the support of
former Governor Victor Attah and former
Petroleum Minister, Don Etiebet, to the APC. The
duo has scores to settle with Governor Akpabio
and prove their relevance in local politics. With
them, Umana is a stronger candidate.
But he is up against formidable forces in the
PDP led by Akpabio who is bent on installing
Udom Emmanuel as his successor. Akpabio is a
major financer of national PDP so shouldn’t have
challenges spending to enable his anointed
candidate win.
Verdict: Battleground
RIVERS
The April 11 governorship election promises to
be an epic battle between the two major
opponents, Dakuku Peterside of APC and PDP’s
Nyesom Wike. The election, from all indications,
would be a battle of egos, money, the political
future of the dramatis personae and much more.
For the state governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who is
rounding up his second term in office, this is one
election that would define his place in the
political history of the South-South state.
And for his opponents, this is one ‘battle’ that
nothing would be spared to reclaim the state
from a man who, in the last two years, has
proved a real handful.
Riding high on the back of his endorsement by
the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP
candidate is telling everyone that he is a man to
watch out for.
But of great concern to PDP leaders in the state
is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy by
influential opinion leaders in the state including
former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas and
Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a
few.
Their grouse is not unconnected with the failure
of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning
agreement dating back to1998 regarding the
governorship seat. It provides for rotation
between the Upland and the Riverine areas of
the state.
Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland, the same
ethnic nationality as the incumbent governor,
whose predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who
governed from 1999 to 2007 was also from the
upland.
The agitation for power shift favour Peterside.
From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician
was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro
area in the House of Representatives in 2011.
Peterside’s emergence, sources say, was a deft
move by his political mentor, Governor Amaechi
to rally the support of the Riverine people behind
the APC in the battle for the political soul of the
state.
With the Riverine people expected to queue
behind Peterside in the election, political
observers are of the opinion that the support by
the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or against
the two major candidates would go a long way to
determine who wins the election.
A few posers would suffice here: can Amaechi
convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre
(Wike) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved
PDP governorship aspirants and key stakeholders
like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others
work against Wike who is the anointed candidate
of the Presidency?
In the Ogoni axis, Peterside, sources say, is head
and shoulders above Wike in the battle for votes.
His high rating is not unconnected to the
influence of the Senator representing Rivers East,
Magnus Abe, who though lost his return bid on
March 28, remains a loyal member of the APC.
With the victory of President Goodluck Jonathan
in Rivers State still a subject of controversy, the
Rivers APC is reportedly girding his loins in order
to prevent a reoccurrence in the governorship
election.
Against this backdrop, the party is not leaving
anything to chance in its preparations for the
coming polls. The victory of the APC in the
presidential election, sources say, has galvanised
members of the party to deliver the governorship
seat for the party come April 11.
This is however not the case in the PDP camp.
The defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan in
the March 28 polls, sources say has greatly
dampened the initial enthusiasm in the party.
In the last one week, a palpable gloom has
gripped the rank and file of the party who fear
that the people of the state will likely pitch their
tent with APC in the governorship election in line
with the political history of the state which
usually prefers to be in the country’s political
mainstream.
The pattern of voting in the governorship
election, sources posit, would significantly reflect
in the state House of Assembly which would hold
on the same day.
Verdict: APC to win
DELTA
Still riding hi gh on the crest of its victory in the
presidential election, the Delta State chapter of
the PDP is confident of recording a similar feat
in the governorship election.
Its candidate, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who
started his political career as a councilor,
appears to be the odds on favourite in the
election in which his major opponent, Olorogun
O’tega Emerhor, cannot be considered as a push-
over.
A few major factors are working in Okowa’s
favour. First, is his deep understanding of the
political environment owing to his almost two
decades in politics.
A former councilor, ex-local government
chairman, former commissioner and ex-Secretary
to the State Government (SSG) and currently a
senator, Okowa also enjoy the support of many
political stakeholders in the state on account of
the zoning formula, which favours the Delta
North where he hails from.
The intimidating structures of the PDP due to its
16 years of dominating the political landscape of
the state since 1999 would also come in handy
for Okowa, who currently chairs the Senate
Committee on Health and is credited with the
passage of the National Health Act, which was
his initiative.
For the APC candidate, Olorogun Emerhor, an
Urhobo, an ethnic group which unarguably
controls the largest population in Delta Central,
all hope is not lost despite the poor showing of
his party in the presidential election.
The businessman turned politician, sources
disclosed, is banking on the huge population of
the Urhobos in the state to clinch the
governorship seat.
But his aspiration is not helped by his party’s
lack of structures in the state coupled with his
political inexperience. Though many Deltans
believe that the APC candidate has all it takes to
take the state to the next level if elected as
governor, the division within the leadership of his
ethnic group, many of whom are allegedly pro-
PDP may work against him at the polls.
Despite the heavy odds stacked against the APC
candidate, many party members remain upbeat
on Emerhor’s chances. Their optimism, it was
learnt, stems from the party’s victory in the
presidential polls and the likely bandwagon effect
this would have on the governorship elections.
Another governorship candidate many people
seem not to be looking in his direction as
capable of making any impact in the polls is
Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party.
An Urhobo, Ogboru gave the incumbent governor
a run for his money in the 2007 and 2011
governorship elections, and this fact that is not
lost on political watchers of the state who argue
that the LP candidate has the lion heart and
popularity to pull an upset in the governorship
polls.
However, the heavy depletion of Ogboru’s
resources which he expended on the prosecution
of his 2003 and 2007 governorship campaign
may hamper on his chances of realising his age-
long ambition come April 11.
In the event that Okowa and Emerhor wins the
majority votes in their respective senatorial
zones, the battleground would be in the South
senatorial zone where the incumbent governor,
Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri comes from.
Sources say when the chips are down, the PDP
candidate would win this zone barring any last
minute upset. In the Ijaw speaking area of the
zone, Okowa appears the candidate to beat, as
influential opinion leaders in the area including
Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark and ex-militant,
Government Ekpemupolo popularly called
Tompolo, are backing him to the hilt.
In the worst case scenario, the Itsekiri votes
would likely be split among the two major
candidates thus putting Emerhor at a
disadvantage.
And for the House of Assembly election, the PDP
may win majority of the seats leaving a handful
of others for the APC and LP.
Verdict: PDP to win

SOUTHWEST
With the presidential election settled, the
gubernatorial contests in three South West states
would be determined by totally local issues and
personalities. However the Buhari factor could
come into play as the people of the region as
excited at the prospect of being in the same boat
as the party that controls the center. This could
have a bearing on Saturday’s polls. Governorship
elections would hold in only Lagos, Ogun and Oyo
States. In Ondo, Ekiti and Osun only state
assembly polls will hold.
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan, ahead of the
March 28 presidential elections, made
tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in
Lagos in favour of his party, the PDP, it is
doubtful if his political maneuvers now guarantee
a victorious outing for Jimi Agbaje, the PDP
gubernatorial candidate.
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP in the
state to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded
as the electorate in their majority gave the state
to Gen. Buhari and his party during the last
electon.
Although the PDP pulled some surprise victories
in some erstwhile APC strongholds like Oshodi-
Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin and
Surulere, pundits say the ruling party will still
outshine PDP at the polls during next weekend’s
state elections. It is also believed that the bloc
votes by non-natives that gave Jonathan a good
performance last weekend may not be there for
Agbaje and other PDP candidate next week, thus
exposing the party to massive defeat.
“We all understand the role played by the vote of
the non-natives in the victories of the PDP in
those areas. We all know why they voted PDP in
that election. Now that Jonathan is not
contesting next Saturday, these people will vote
their conscience freely without any ethnic or
religious bias,” Jimi Benson, the House of
Representatives member-elect for Ikorodu
federal constituency, said.
While some talk about a keenly contested two-
horse race between the APC and the PDP, for
who will become the next governor of the state,
others insist Agbaje’s candidature will not add
any value to the party’s chances as it will still be
defeated.
Those optimistic about Agbaje’s performance in
the polls are citing the fact that the structure on
which he contested the 2007 election has now
been collapsed into the PDP. With this, they feel
the party is further strengthened to tackle the
APC in next month’s election.
But there are those who feel that with PDP as
his party of choice, Agbaje should not bank on
the support he enjoyed in 2007. “While Agbaje
may be well loved by Lagosians in a way, his
candidature is not enough to change how the
people of Lagos feel about the PDP.
Also, months after his controversial victory at
the primary election, Agbaje is still battling some
serious issues within his party. And with these
critical issues still unresolved, pundits say his
aspiration to rule Lagos may remain mere wishful
thinking.
Issues like the need to reconcile the several
factions of the party and how the party will
coordinate the governorship campaign slowed
down the progress of the party towards preparing
adequately for the all-important February
election.
“We prepared seriously. But up till this moment,
some leaders are not ready to work with others
to ensure Agbaje’s victory. Even after all the
aspirants pledge their supports to him, some
leaders remained aggrieved even after the
candidate himself met some of them and
pleaded for their understanding. Majority of them
claimed they are not angry with him but with the
leaders who imposed him on the party.
There was also the problem of how to run the
campaign. This was a serious problem. Some
people wanted the structure established before
the primary election to promote Agbaje retained.
But several others made frantic calls for
harmonisation to accommodate all interests in
the party.
Feelers, however, indicated that the Bode
George/Ogunlewe faction of the party remained
unwilling to accommodate other interests and as
such, shut many chieftains out. A member of the
state executive committee, who preferred
anonymity, while speaking to The Nation, said
the party realized the danger of the situation.
APC’s control of political structures in the state
is massive – from state to local council levels.
This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out
the votes on polling day. Pundits say the party is
already making good use of this advantage to
correct some political mistakes in areas it lost
last weekend.
By the time all of the above are placed side by
side with the unending crises that have rocked
the PDP in the state for years, Akinwunmi
Ambode, the APC governorship candidate, may
most likely emerge as the victor in next
Saturday’s political contest.
But unlike in 2011, when it was a clean sweep
for the ruling party, the PDP is expected to win a
handful of assembly seats, especially in zreas
like Amuwo Odofin, Oshodi-Isolo and Ajeromi
Ifelodun where its candidates won some national
assembly seats last week.
In 2011, Babatunde Fashola of the then Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN), now APC, won re-
election as governor of the Centre of Excellence
by a total of 1,509,113 votes to beat Ade
Dosunmu of the PDP to a distant second with
300,450 votes. The ACN also won all the 40
House of Assembly seats in the state back then.
Verdict: APC to win.
OGUN
Before the March 28 presidential election, an
array of PDP chieftains, including Buruji
Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo,
Adewale Osinubi, Doyin Okupe, amongst others,
was working round the clock to deliver votes in
the state to the PDP. They were determined to
beat APC to second place. They campaigned
against the wide acceptance of Governor
Ibikunle Amosun. It was a huge task for
Jonathan’s men and at the end of last
Saturday’s presidential polls, they learnt their
lessons. PDP lost the presidency and could only
win a senate seat and two House seats.
Consequently, observers say the support base of
the party in Ogun State is daily being depleted
ahead of the governorship election, giving an
impression that Gboyega Isiaka, the PDP
governorship candidate may soon be alone and
fighting a lost battle.
While rumours are rife that Buruji is already
negotiating with the leadership of the APC for a
soft landing following Jonathan’s loss of the
presidency, Okupe and Fadairo are said to be
less interested in what become of Gboyega’s
aspiration as their interest in the entire process
had all along been hinged on the presidency.
More shockingly, Osinubi, who is the candidate
of the PDP for the House of Representatives for
Ijebu Central Federal Constituency, on Thursday
defected to the ruling APC, and vowed to
support Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s re-election.
This is just as the PDP is worrying its head over
the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like
former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker
Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of
other aggrieved PDP leaders amidst fears that
they may work against its victory on Saturday.
Analysts are also of the opinion that winning the
2015 governorship election in the state for PDP
may be a tall order. This is because, to majority
of the people of the state across political party
lines Amosun has performed well in his first
term.
Verdict: APC to win.
OYO
In Oyo state, the failure of Jonathan’s party to
make any appreciable impact at the March 28
election confirmed earlier permutations that
Governor Abiola Ajimobi may be looking good for
another term in the Government House. With the
poor performance of the PDP and Rasheed
Ladoja’s Accord Party, the Adebayo Alao-Akala-
led Labour Party (LP), is left to challenge the All
Progressives Congress (APC) in Saturday’s
election.
While the APC clinched all senate seats and
majority House of Representatives slots, the LP
won two House of Representatives seats. This
signals the decline of both the PDP and the
Accord Party in the politics of the state. The
development also reinforced the readiness of the
APC to continue in office beyond 2015.
Incumbent governor, Senator Ajimobi, who is
seeking for a second term in office, is up against
old familiar foes in the battle for the political
soul of the pace setter state.
Lined up against him are his predecessor,
Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party (LP);
another former governor, Rashidi Ladoja
representing Accord Party (AP); former Senate
Leader, Teslim Folarin, the candidate of the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a youthful
politician and wealthy businessman, Seyi
Makinde, the flag bearer of the relatively new
Social Democratic Party (SDP).
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide,
Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator
Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are still
of the opinion that the people will vote for their
party, indications that this may not be so are
numerous. The daily defection of party leaders
from the PDP, which started with the exit of
former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and
continued after Jonathan’s loss, remains an
issue.
With APC determined to hold on to the state,
enjoying the support of all the first class
monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of
Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, as well as
its recent victories across the state in the
national assembly elections, Ajimobi may have
little or no problem pushing over Akala on his
way back to the Government House.
Interestingly, the four leading candidates –
Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde are from
Ibadan, the state capital. While Ajimobi hails
from Ibadan South, Ladoja comes from Ibadan
North, with Folarin and Makinde both from Ona
Ara. Akala is an indigene of Ogbomoso.
Against this backdrop, earlier permutations were
that the votes from Ibadan would be shared
among Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with
none of the contenders having a clear cut
advantage. Not a few are also ruling Akala out in
the scramble for Ibadan votes. The former
governor was optimistic of posting a good
showing, banking on the fact that his running
mate, Sharafa Alli, a former Secretary to the
State Government (SSG), hails from Ibadan.
But the massive support given to the APC last
weekend by the people of Ibadan, with the party
clinching all available positions, has may
rubbished such calculations. If last election
results are anything to go by, Ajimobi will mop
up the votes in his native Ibadan and enjoy
support from all other parts of the state.
Verdict: APC wins.

SOUTH EAST
In spite of historical patterns the results of the
March 28 presidential and National Assembly
elections in the South-East were controversial and
intriguing. While informed observers had correctly
predicted President Jonathan’s victory in the zone,
only very few, if any, imagined the possibility of the
ruling party also claiming all the National Assembly
seats from the zone.
This situation, coupled with the victory of APC’s
Buhari, at the presidential poll, has raised the
stakes in this weekend’s governorship and state
house of assembly elections in the zone. Before
the current realities, PDP supporters in the South-
East used to joke that once you secure the party’s
ticket at the primaries; you were already on the way
to the office you were contesting for. The
permutations may have changed largely following
the victory of Buhari’s APC at the federal level and
the usual craze in the zone to be part of
mainstream politics.
ABIA
In Abia State where Governor Theodore Orji
effectively controls the PDP party machinery, the
party is very hopeful of another landslide both in
the governorship and State House of Assembly
elections.
Describing Orji’s control of the party machinery
in an interview with The Nation, Chief Udensi
Ukoma, a community leader in Abia North, said, ”
Over the years, PDP has managed to dictate the
pace in Abia State politics because of Governor
Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he
succeeded in rendering opposition parties
redundant in Abia.”
That state of inertia however changed
tremendously during the preparations for this
year’s governorship primaries as most of the
opposition political parties fielded what a
political commentator in Umuahia described as
“equally strong governorship candidates, whose
dynamism brought life to the opposition parties
once despised in Umuahia Government House.
For example, the emergence of Dr. Alex Otti, the
immediate past Managing Director of Diamond
Bank, as the governorship candidate of All
Progressives Congress (APGA) rejuvenated the
party in the state, making it one of the major
contenders.
For the All Progressives Congress (APC)
candidate, Dr. Nyerere Anyim, who is from
Agburuike Isiugwu in Obingwa LGA, the result of
the March 28 presidential election, in which APC
candidate emerged the President-elect, is a
great boost to his quest to occupy the coveted
seat at Umuahia Government House. Many
believe that this turn of events in the country’s
federal political equation will help to make APC
in the state a major contender.
Another factor that threw up the three parties
and their candidates as the leading contenders is
the zoning factor. They all come from the zone
widely favoured to produce the next governor of
the state. While his critics tried hard to dismiss
Otti’s Ngwa heritage, it seems difficult to say he
has no connections with the Ngwa race.
So, these current realities have thrown up the
three political parties; the ruling PDP, which has
Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as its governorship candidate,
APGA and APC as the major contenders in next
week’s governorship election.
While Ikpeazu’s PDP, boasting of the
incumbency factor in the state and the fact that
the party cleared the presidential and National
Assembly elections in the state, is confident to
emerge the winner, Nyerere and Otti’s supporters
believe the emergence of Buhari, as the
president-elect, has neutralized the political
temperature in the state, creating a more level
playing field. As a result, the two candidates are
equally hopeful.
Verdict: PDP to win
EBONYI
Although Ebonyi is a traditional PDP state, we
predicted that it would be a battleground in this
year’s presidential election mainly because of
the ripple effects of the crisis in PDP, which
culminated in the political coup that dislodged
control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi.
As it stands, supporters of the embattled
governor, who moved over to Labour Party from
where they have arguably taken the shine off the
PDP at governorship campaigns, are major
contenders to the Ebonyi governorship race. The
party’s governorship candidate, Chief Edward
Nkwegu, enjoys Elechi’s support and this is
widely believed to be a major advantage. He
equally enjoys the support of former Minister of
Health, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, who lost the
PDP ticket to the Deputy Governor, Engr. Dave
Umahi, in very controversial circumstances.
Umahi, who is the governorship candidate of the
ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has, since
his dramatic emergence, fought a brave battle
with supporters of Elechi. While his supporters
say he has fought bravely enough to be reckoned
as a major contender, many believe he and his
party, the PDP, will be major casualties of the
result of the presidential election and the
emergence of All Progressives Congress (APC)’s
Muhammadu Buhari as the president-elect. This
is because, Umahi’s strength had been traced to
his long connection to Abuja and Aso-Rock, but
with the imminent change of baton, it is doubtful
if Umahi and the state PDP will still get the kind
of backing many anticipated they will get in
order to win the state governorship race. Some
say even if his patrons like Senator Anyim Pius
Anyim and President Goodluck Jonathan who had
enthroned federal lawmakers in the state still
threw their weights behind him, common voters
may want to take into cognizance the reality that
APC will now be in charge at the centre.
Already, there are stories that the supporters of
Elechi in Labour may find an alliance with APC
very attractive. If this happens, they may easily
win the governorship election, if not, it will be a
three horse race.
All these will however depend on how APC
succeeds in handling the crisis that trailed its
governorship candidate struggle. It would be
recalled that in late February, some aggrieved
stakeholders of APC in Ebonyi State threatened
to leave the party if Senator Julius Ucha remains
the party’s governorship flag-bearer. They
reportedly said if they still remained in the party,
they would work against Ucha as APC’s
candidate.
Verdict: Too close to call
ENUGU
Since the dramatic reconciliation of the Deputy
Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of
PDP in Enugu State and that of Governor Sullivan
Chime, described by PDP as the major political
move that will preserve the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party in the state, the party’s
governorship candidate, Hon. Ifeanyi-Ugwuanyi,
has remained the top contender in this
Saturday’s gubernatorial election.
But the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC
in the state, is now posing a more lethal threat
to Ugwuanyi’s predicted victory because of the
emergence of APC’s General Muhammadu
Buhari as the President-Elect. Already, The
Nation gathered that many grassroots political
leaders in the state, who never gave a second
thought to APC are now willing to work for the
party. This will serve as a major boost for the
party. Dr. Kingsley Udeh in Enugu said “even if
APC failed to win the governorship race in the
state, it will get some state House of Assembly
seats and that will be a good beginning.”
Again, although the Chime/Ekweremadu rift has
been resolved, insiders say many people were
hurt in the process and such people may work
against PDP.
Also, with Enugu State’s Catholic dominated
population, there is the fear at the PDP camp
that Father Mbaka’s well publicized sermon may
still sway some precious votes to APC. This
notwithstanding, Ugwuanyi, who enjoys Governor
Sullivan Chime’s full support, according to most
people who spoke to The Nation yesterday,
remains the foremost contender in the race.
Verdict: PDP to win
IMO
The presidential and National Assembly election
results notwithstanding, Imo State is an All
Progressives Congress state, with Governor
Rochas Okorocha flying the flag of his party for
the governorship race.
Before the dramatic emergence of Okorocha,
first on the ticket of All Progressive Grand
Alliance (APGA) before the formation of APC,
the state had remained a traditional PDP state.
That explained the large number of experienced
politicians that are still in the state chapter of
PDP and the stiff political challenge Okorocha’s
APC still faces in the state. The way Okorocha
and others criticized the results of the
Presidential and National Assembly election,
gives clear impression of the stiff competition in
the state. In the said result announced by the
Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC), PDP besides winning the presidential
race, cleared the National Assembly seats.
But with the emergence of APC’s Buhari as the
President-elect, observers say the state elections
in Imo will be different. According Ikechukwu
Anyanwu, “We know we have long association
with PDP and there are many influential
politicians in the party, there is no doubt that
APC, the ruling party, will do better in next
week’s elections.”
The governorship is a three-horse race between
the ruling APC, fielding Governor Rochas
Okorocha; PDP, fielding Deputy Speaker of the
House of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha
and APGA, fielding Captain Emmanuel
Iheanacho. While the three parties enjoy sizeable
followership in the state, the incumbent
governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha is likely to
win the race. The party will also get majority in
the House of Assembly but both PDP and APGA
will also get seats in the Assembly.
Verdict: APC to win

lalasticlala

Senator Aisha Alhassan better ask Tinubu, Amaechi and other APC stalwarts to pour money into her guber campaign, to counter Gen Danjuma's resources.
A 49,000 vote difference in the presidential election is surmountable.

Very good analysis. But some modifications from my opinion.
Imo--PDP wins
Abia--APGA wins
Rivers--PDP wins

APGA - Abia, Imo Ebonyi, Nasarawa
PDP: Enugu, Rivers, Delta, Lagos Adamawa, Akwaibom, Benue, Cross River, Kwara, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna

Lol @ APC winning Rivers.

Sweetguy25:
Lol @ APC winning Rivers.

Rivers people are not going to vote for thug Wike.

Raiders:
Rivers people are not going to vote for thug Wike.

Are you 'Rivers people'?
Between Amaechi and Wike, who is more of a thug? What about Dakuku the cultist?

Collynzo9:
APGA - Abia, Imo Ebonyi, Nasarawa
PDP: Enugu, Rivers, Delta, Lagos Adamawa, Akwaibom, Benue, Cross River, Kwara, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna

PDP is winning Abia state. APC is going to win Lagos, Imo, Rivers, Kwara, Nasarawa and Benue

Collynzo9:
Are you 'Rivers people'?
Between Amaechi and Wike, who is more of a thug? What about Dakuku the cultist?

Dakuku is better than Wike. Nobody in his right mind will vote for thug Wike. We want peace in Rivers state and we don't want to go back to the days of cultism that plague rivers state before Ameachi became governor.

Sweetguy25:
Lol @ APC winning Rivers.

lol @pdp winning lagos

[color=#1980BC] Daft analysis....Especially when you look at the multifaceted and localized back drop of the gubers...you cannot seat in your plush offices to tell or predict voting patterns in the itenerant populace of Imo,Gombe,Taraba even Niger. [/color]

Hurricane Apc

Texcoco:
[color=#1980BC] Daft analysis....Especially when you look at the multifaceted and localized back drop of the gubers...you cannot seat in your plush offices to tell or predict voting patterns in the itenerant populace of Imo,Gombe,Taraba even Niger. [/color]

Dude, you really need to get over this Election thang and stop revealing how bitter you are about the outcome.

Happy Easter!