₦airaland Forum

WITH a month to the inauguration of an All
Progressives Congress (APC) federal government,
the street partying to celebrate the sweeping
success of the nation’s most successful opposition
party in history is winding down. Now is the time
to tackle the challenges of success.
The question on our lips today is: can the APC
survive the two tests of its manhood which lie in
wait for it? Between May 29th 2015 and May 28th
2019, the incoming ruling party will be sorely
tested with two challenges: (1) power sharing at
the outset of its reign and (2) the struggle for the
party’s tickets towards the end of the tenure. How
will the APC fare?
The party’s supporters and enthusiasts will answer
right away by saying the APC has already
conquered the biggest obstacles of forging a
successful merger of parties and unseating the
ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But it
needs to be noted here that capturing power is
one thing, keeping it is yet another.
PDP collapsed because it could no longer maintain
the internal cohesion necessary for continuation as
a ruling party. It had little or no problem with
power sharing, but the integrity could no longer be
maintained in the struggle for its tickets in 2015. If
the APC wishes to last long as a ruling party,
these two elements must be satisfied, in addition
to good governance, of course.
There are some danger signals that, once you see
them manifesting within the APC, then you can
start a mental countdown to the end of its reign.
One of them is political greed.
That was one of the factors that led PDP to failure.
The Party thought that the larger its size the more
invincible it would be at the polls. This was the
factor that made former President Olusegun
Obasanjo to ensure that the opposition was not
allowed to stand on a firm footing. Eventually,
many opposition party leaders dumped their
parties, jumped into PDP and some of them even
got prestigious posts at all levels. PDP was
reduced to a free-for-all bazaar.
The upshot was that there were too many interests,
and once they could not be satisfied, they
automatically turned around to constitute internal
opposition in the PDP.
If you check the history of the PDP as a ruling
party, especially at the Centre, it was the PDP
National Assembly members that stood in the
forefront of opposition against the Executive
Branch. The Presidency under Obasanjo fought and
changed the leadership of the National Assembly
led by its party men.
It was PDP Senators that prevented President
Obasanjo from using the constitution amendment
of 2004/2006 to grab an extra term of office. The
APC only became a living threat to PDP when five
states controlled by the Party moved over to APC.
All these were traced to internal power struggles
occasioned by too many selfish interests clashing
against one another.
Preying on PDP’s remains
The APC is large enough to stand in the same
danger, unless it opts to learn from the foibles of
its predecessor in the presidential seat, the PDP. It
must resist the temptation of preying on what
remains of the PDP. It must also ensure it does
not interfere in the affairs of the party.
Though a political party is like a church which
never rejects new members, it must not give away
coveted posts to opportunistic newcomers. In fact,
the party should place all newcomers on probation
for at least four years to prove their genuine
commitment to the APC before they qualify for its
privileges. Giving away plum positions to
newcomers will create ill feelings among those
who fought and endured for the APC to become
the ruling party.
Rather than putting emphasis on increasing its
size, the APC will do itself – and our democracy –
a favour by firming up party principles and policies
and keeping members within its ideological
bounds through discipline and internal democracy.
The PDP should also pay attention to creating a
new ideological character for itself. What we need
within the next four years is to able to choose
between the party of the Progressives and the
Democrats. Solid ideological grounding, not mere
ephemeral size, is the only thing that will ensure
the longevity of both the APC and PDP.
The second issue that will determine APC’s fate as
a ruling party is how it manages its ethno-regional
differences. Put it in another way, how it handles
the political interests of its principal leaders:
President-elect, General Muhammadu Buhari, and
its erstwhile National Leader, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola
Tinubu. That these two gents were able to forge an
alliance that successfully saw off the mighty PDP
is a great feat which has become a milestone in
the nation’s political history. However, that is
where the problem starts.
Right now, the APC is still a gang-up of seventeen
states of the old Northern Region and four states of
the old West Region, with one vassal state each
from the old Eastern Region (Imo, whose fate is
still hanging) and old Mid-West (Edo). The PDP
has been completely shut down in Northern
Nigeria, save for Gombe (and Taraba, which is still
hanging).
The APC revolution in Northern Nigeria even put
away the issue of “Middle Belt”. The Minorities of
the North went with their Hausa/Fulani Majorities,
just as the Southern Minorities (except Edo) went
with their Igbo Majority neighbours. How will four
states of the South West cope under the
deadweight of seventeen states of the North in the
APC? It is more like a master-servant partnership
– what a partnership!
How will Tinubu continue to be the “National
Leader” of the APC with his power bloc forming
such a miserable minority in the partnership?
Though it is agreed that Tinubu’s South West
made Buhari’s victory possible (just as the South
East did for President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011)
how will that stand when an all-out power struggle
ensues?
This question becomes even more germane when
we realise that under our presidential system, the
president is the Leader of the ruling party. Buhari
is now the Leader of the APC. What becomes of
Tinubu, since two captains cannot command one
boat?
Buhari and regional supporters
A lot will depend on the mental attitude that Buhari
and his regional supporters are coming into this
dispensation with. If they are coming with the old
mindset of Northern domination and Southern
dependency, then we are in for a rough ride, just
as I have always warned. Will Buhari and his
Northern support group resist the temptation of
seeing this as a dispensation of the North having
“snatched” their power back with their might?
Or have they learned from the history of their past
attitude which made the idea of the North’s return
to power unpopular in the South in the past sixteen
years? Has Buhari put aside the mentality of
North’s alliance with the West with which he once
ran this country along with the late retired Major
General Tunde Idiagbon, whereby the entire East
and its Minorities were virtually shut out of
national relevance? That was why they refused to
vote for him, apart from the President Jonathan
factor.
Buhari can still surprise many of his critics by
seeing himself not just as Muslim/Arewa president
or even as a president of a North and West alliance
against the rest of the country. If he is able to
carry every section of the country along, not only
in the selection of top government officials but also
in the distribution of the benefits of good
governance, the entire nation will embrace him.
His Party will also benefit. Everything now depends
on Buhari.

www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/can-buhari-tinubu-share-power/

Many don't still understand the type of person Buhari is, once Tinubu tries to overstep his boundary, the real man in him will emerge.

Princecalm:
Many don't still understand the type of person Buhari is, once Tinubu tries to overstep his boundary, the real man in him will emerge.

can buhari afford to step on Jagaban's toes

Princecalm:
Many don't still understand the type of person Buhari is, once Tinubu tries to overstep his boundary, the real man in him will emerge.

Tinubu will surely come for his pound of flesh, He's was the main architect that facilitated APC victory. That is where the two (Buhari and Tinubu) may not agree.

Princecalm:
Many don't still understand the type of person Buhari is, once Tinubu tries to overstep his boundary, the real man in him will emerge.

Its as if u don't know who Tinubu is too!

This is civil rule. So don't go thinking its the Era when people were dflogged and nobody to ask why. God will make have a good balance.

SeverusSnape:
Tinubu will surely come for his pound of flesh, He's was the main architect that facilitated APC victory. That is where the two (Buhari and Tinubu) may not agree.

Tinubu should know Buhari well enough and so will not do anything silly.

HolyHero:
can buhari afford to step on Jagaban's toes

if Tinubu can keep his cool, there will be no problem at all.

Princecalm:
Tinubu should know Buhari well enough and so will not do anything silly.

So you think he did everything he did for "National interest"?
Do you know if an agreement was signed?
Let's face it, Tinubu will be one of the key decision makers in this dispensation. Watch and see.

deltalife:
Its as if u don't know who Tinubu is too!

This is civil rule. So don't go thinking its the Era when people were dflogged and nobody to ask why. God will make have a good balance.

let us not blab too much, let event plays itself out.

SeverusSnape:
So you think he did everything he did for "National interest"?
Do you know if an agreement was signed?
Let's face it, Tinubu will be one of the key decision makers in this dispensation. Watch and see.

surely argreements were signed it all depend on whoever decides to go against it.