₦airaland Forum

GenBuhari:
Buhari policy is to eventually stop fuel imports.

These guys are simply speeding up the attainment of that objective.

Bevista:
40m litres/day is the figure PPPRA has been quoting for some years now as our daily consumption. However, during the Ministerial screening, Ibe Kachikwu said that he believes the proper number should be closer to 30m than 40m.
---
Most industry people believe that the 40m figure was used merely to profit unduly from the subsidy regime.

Chukzyfcb:
Well I deal with the statistics on ground, in the oil sector there's lots of confusion there based on numbers. During jonathan's era, when talks of subsidy removal arose. Different people were quoting different Figures on how much Oil nigeria produced daily, so coming to a conclusion on numbers is a long thing in the oil sector. However, the agreed and available stats put our demand @ 40m, anything else is just mere opinion/suggestions

wirinet:
It is possible that we consume up to 40 million litres a day. I consume close to 100 litres weekly to run both office and home as PHCN is yet to resume for Christmas break in my area. So imagine what lagos alone with over 2 million homes would be consuming just on generators. If I am assume Nigeria has a minimum of 15 million households with our estimated 170 million population, majority without electricity, then If even 5 million households consume 4 litres daily with " i better pass my neighbor" generator, then only generators would consumption at least 20 million litres daily. We have not even started talking about cars and artisans like barbers, welders and small businesses.

What i am trying to say is that we cannot solve our fuel problems without solving our electricity problem. Having constant electricity can reduce our fuel consumption by up to half.

Bevista:
You Call the opinion of the NNPC GMD / Minister of Petroleum "mere"?

wirinet:
I asked a simple question and you are rambling. You are saying that president Buhari lacks and i asked, who can you name that possesses the birthdaysoundness of mind to proffer innovative cutting edge ideas to a complex Nigeria? Name that person you know that knows how to pilot this ship.

wirinet:
Can you tell us that person you know that possesses the soundness of mind to proffer innovative cutting edge ideas to a complex Nigeria. I hope you do not mention Goodluck Jonathan.

Bevista:
I appreciate your contribution in trying to enrich the discussion. Though I have not quoted your full comment (because of space management), be rest assured I read it fully.
---
Though I supported PMB in 2011 and 2015, I have to say that I am somewhat disappointed with his handling of the economy till now. I am most unimpressed with the delay in appointing ministers, the budget controversy and the tight FX policy controls.
---
I also want to admit that, in retrospect, it does appear OBJ was the best manager of the economy in the last 16 years. He paid off $12billion debt to the Paris Club, left over $60b in Foreign Reserves and over $20b in Excess Crude Account. The banking consolidation and telecoms revolution all happened during his tenure. All this happened with an average oil price of less than $45 over his 8yr tenure.
---
Having said that I think it is completely uncharitable to discredit PMB by comparing the current economic realities with that of OBJ in 1999. Even though oil was $16pb in 1999, do you know what our Federal budget was by then? I'll remind you - it was ~N300b. I admit that the exchange rate was ~N98/$ by then. However, using an inflation rate of 9% over 16yrs, PMB would need oil price at ~$63pb and a meagre budget of N2tn to be on the same economic footing with OBJ in 1999. Sadly, the old man needs to fund a N6tn budget with $28pb oil price. Add that to the fact that our population has grown from 120m to over 170m now, and you will appreciate the weight on the shoulder of the old soldier.
---
It is my candid view that, economically, the Jonathan era was the worst in our democratic history. The average oil price during GEJ's 5yr reign was over $90pb, yet the country was left with less than $30b in FR and ~$2b in ECA. One cannot even point to any major economic activity that happened under him. Our power generation stood at less than 4,000MW in 2015, which is about what he inherited in 2011.
---
Now, this is not an exercise in blame as that would be an effort in futility, but this is just to offer some perspective to your earlier assertions. As @janellemonae noted earlier, president Obama inherited a collapsed economy from president Bush, yet today, the American economy has witnessed unemployment lower than it has ever been in its recent history (5%). The Stock Market made new all time highs under Obama. President Buhari has a similar situation to turn around the country and write his name in gold. History will not remember what made you fail but simply your success or failure.
---
I still firmly believe that, in spite of all his inadequacies, PMB is still a better option to run the economy at this present time. With all the revelations of financial mismanagement, GEJ would simply have been an economic catastrophe with such low oil prices.

Nigerian GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) has almost tripled from $170 billion in 2000 to $451 billion in 2012, although estimates of the size of the informal sector (which is not included in official figures) put the actual numbers closer to $630 billion. Correspondingly, the GDP per capita doubled from $1400 per person in 2000 to an estimated $2,800 per person in 2012 (again, with the inclusion of the informal sector, it is estimated that GDP per capita hovers around $3,900 per person).

Culled from Wikipedia

LordAdam:
Yes. GEJ will be a better manager than PMB of our current economic relapse. However, Nigeria does not have a leader in the polity that fits this description at the moment "possesses the soundness of mind to proffer innovative cutting edge ideas to a complex Nigeria."

My support for GEJ stems from the fact that he is a better evil than PMB.

-Lord

LordAdam:
I am not going to compare OBJ to GEJ (OBJ spent 8 years and GEJ spent 5 years). Still, OBJ paid off debts and left billions in the reserves because he did far less than he could have done. All the major sectors under his administration were majorly stagnant.

Even his top 2 achievements are questionable:
1. Telecommunications would have entered Nigeria at one point or the other. That it entered under OBJ is not an achievement. Should we also applaud the Shagari regime for bringing in computers? Did OBJ not oversee the colossal failure of NITEL? Was OBJ MTN, Econet, or Glo that spearheaded the widespread development of the telecommunication sector? What exactly did OBJ do other than sell licenses at exorbitant costs and wasting the government revenues?

2. Nigeria's financial sector is a joke. It has always been. Soludo's market recapitalization did not stop Sanusi from exposing the rot in the sector that led to famous "Sanusi tsunami" that saw several bank executives (most notably Cecilia Ibru) having to vacate their lofty positions. Even Soludo's begrudged "20 to 25 banks supporting the whole nation" is BS. There are over 5000 commercial banks in the US [although the figure has consistently fallen almost exclusively due to market forces and stricter fiscal policies (note not monetary policies)]. Over a quarter of those banks have just one office. They have national, regional, and local banks; a move that Sanusi gravitated to when he became CBN governor.

So what exactly was his achievement in the sector. Despite Nigeria having a larger economy than South Africa, can our banks compete with SA banks? What we need in the banking sector in Nigeria is strict policing of activities over successive regimes not terming one regime a better regime over the other because of myopic furtherances.

How many naira denominations did OBJ introduce?
What about the coins Soludo introduced whose inherent value were more than the face value they held?

===========================================================================================================

wirinet:
Oboy see phd thesis. I give you huge credit for taking out time and effort to write out such long and detailed argument, it betrays your intellectual and physical depth. I do not have the physical strength and time for a detailed rejoinder and i hope bevista can take on the enormous challenge of a detailed response. Even though i agree with many of your submissions, on the performance of OBJ and Soludo, i disagree vehemently with your conclusion that GEJ performed better than OBJ, that is if GEJ performed at all.


Paying up $12 billion and leaving such huge amounts in our foreign reserve and excess crude accounts is a major feat, giving that crude averaged $40 per barrel during his tenor.
What you fail to put into consideration is that under OBJ, Nigeria was just coming out of economic doldrums. Under Abacha/abdulsalami Nigeria was a pariah nation, nobody was ready to do business or invest in Nigeria, so OBJ spent a lot of time traveling to restore relationships with other nations and invite foreign investors. So to say major sectors under OBJ was stagnant is charitable considering where we were coming from.

I also do not credit OBJ with bring GSM to Nigeria. GSM was a revolution going around the world, so it would have come to Nigeria whoever the president was.

Although i disagreed with the way soludo was sleeping in bed with the banks instead of regulating them, i still think OBJ government did quite well in the financial sector, as you said he reduced inflation rate to 6% before he left, he stabilized the naira, he almost eliminated the gap between the parallel and official exchange markets, he increased the capital base of banks and made them bigger, etc.

Have to go and prepare for work. Might continue later when i have time.

kenny987:
Stop fuel imports with what alternatives in place? Functional or new refineries? What are u talking about? Don't be such a doofus hell bent on supporting obvious problems borne out of sheer cluelessness and stupidity of d current govt just because Buhari is ur idol please!

PreyingMantis:
Common sense should tell you that we can only stop importation of refined petrol when we develop capacity to refine locally. It's not a policy decision. Right now, it's not possible. We don't refine anything

wirinet:
I strongly disagree what GEJ would have been a better manager than PMB. As i pointed out earlier GEJ had the highest earnings in the history of Nigeria and his management of these earnings was at best poor. GEJ did not introduce anything new into the polity , his policies were simply a continuation of OBJ's policies carried over by yaradua, which is mainly hinged on privatization of state asserts.

As for PMB, we have to wait a bit more to see his policy direction. At the moment he is more occupied with the war against Boko Haram and corruption.

Bevista:
I will not dignify him with a response.
---
First of all, he questions my intellect and my decision to support PMB for the Presidency. Secondly, he used the terms "silly", "senile", "dictator", etc when describing the president. Thirdly, he was obviously desperate to defend GEJ, and saw nothing wrong in his "hero".
---
He cannot drag my personality into an economic debate just to have some cheap emotional leverage. And calling the president derogatory names does validate his points or raise his self esteem. I cannot be dragged into such a lowly playground. When he is ready to stick with issues, devoid of personal sentiments & abuses, then, maybe we can have a decent discussion.
---
In fairness to him, he raised some sound economic points, which, on another day, and I would have been glad to take him on. Most of the issues he raised are valid but many others are complete bullocks and very refutable.

Goke7:
I suspect the Nigerian banks are in trouble, there were rumors of this late last year but was quickly dispelled, it looks like the banks don't have the liquidity or cash to support some of these transactions any longer, the forex retrictions here and there I suspect are just measures to cover up for the banks who are in trouble, I have asked a cbn guy about this but no one wants to speak up.

If you consider the bad debts that some of these banks have especially when they were naming and shaming their debtors last year, will give an indication to this. It could be that to avoid panic among Nigerians about the banks, that's why we can't have an effective communication from any quarters.

wirinet:
Utopic idea. Where will the states get the money to build the refineries when they can hardly pay salaries? A small 24,000 BPD capacity refinery is estimated to cost $250million, and that is even without putting into consideration the NIGERIAN FACTOR.


Then how will the refineries in each state get access to raw material - crude oil? Is the FG to lay pipelines to all 36 states in Nigeria? or the refineries will transport crude oil by road using tankers?

Then which state institution had ever succeeded in Nigera?

porka:
‎Enjoying your brilliant analysis on the sideline but have to quickly drop this intervention. 

Please note: BUHARI's so-called experience is a very horrible one. If that's what the APC is depending on at the federal level then they have made an extremely grievous mistake. 

It's everything [ENTIRELY and ALL have] to do with Buhari himself. His idea about governance STARTS and ENDS with corruption. It's his mind set. To Buhari, everyone is corrupt and everything is corrupt. That's not a pleasant personality to rely on. 

Even at that, his strategy in‎ combating that corruption is to JAIL everyone. Just jail. How do you even go about the jailing? What's the method? What prosecutorial strategies have you developed for 35 years? NONE! Nothing! 

No new laws have been brought to NASS on the perceived or real lapses identified in the fight against corruption over the years. No new strategy. It's the old strategy of shouting 'THIEF, THIEF' at every passers-by to encourage LYNCH action. And the Vice President is a PROFESSOR OF LAW. 

Buhari's two interventions in our national life as head of government have been in the period of low energy prices. One would think that the so-called first experience after the Shagari administration was toppled would have taught Buhari one lesson or another in dealing with the economic shocks arising from crude oil prices volatility. But NO, he didn't bring any lesson to the table. Neither during the campaigns nor after taking office. 

Comparing Obasanjo's experience with Buhari's is like matching USAIN BOLT with a PREGNANT WOMAN ‎on a 100 meter dash. 
‎
Obasanjo was fast enough to propose two laws within weeks after taking office as a demonstration of his resolve to tackle grafts and financial crimes. But he was ‎smart enough to realize that the economy was in a dire strait and needed urgent actions. 
‎
Crude OIL SOLD for $16‎/bl in 1999. Nigeria was heavily indebted to London and Paris Club (bilateral and multilateral creditors) with the consequence of an acute debt overhang. External reserve was almost non-existent. Unemployment was a CURSE back then. The financial institutions and markets were terribly underveloped. Infrastructure was in a very bad shape. Industrial capacity utilization was down to 30 something percent while unsold manufactured goods filled up the warehouses of our conglomerates due to fierce competition from import/smuggled items from Asia. We had more than 70 toothpaste brands in the market at the time, for instance. Power generation was hovering around 1000mw to 1300mw.
‎
What is more? The media was very hostile to Obasanjo at the time‎. A section held Obasanjo responsible for the political fate of some persons in the past while others simply couldn't bring themselves to trust a military man in a civilian apparel so soon after Abacha's highhandedness.

But he rose to the occasion. ‎He didn't spend 7 months consulting marabouts on the formation of his governments. He took the bull by the horn and tackled challenges as they emerged.

Fast forward ‎to 2015-16. The groundwork has been done. The heaviest stones have been lifted leaving only pebbles to be picked along the way. The critical media [FOR ONCE] for one reason or another has surprisingly been friendly (docile). The state of infrastructure has improved - financial infrastructure at least has improved greatly.‎

Buhari and APC just needed to focus on the economy that has largely been modernized for them. They met a technology driven economy which would have made the work much more easier - even for the so-called corruption fight. Unfortunately, the experience after 8 months is extremely horrible. ‎

The earlier we put the blame where it is, the better. This is not the first time CRUDE OIL was selling for less than $30/bl, it sold for $16/bl in 1999 and $8/bl during Shagari's presidency in the early 80s.‎
‎
If the Buhari and APC could not even prepare an ORD‎INARY BUDGET document, then it's not likely they have the answer for anything. 

Right now, NIGERIA'S ECONOMY is under ‎DOMESTIC SANCTIONS. The sanctions have been imposed on Nigerians by Buhari just because he and his party don't know their right from their left. All we hear is that they want to LIFT PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY [with 5000 naira]. Some terms they read up on the internet but have no single idea what it means. 

Bevista:
I appreciate your contribution in trying to enrich the discussion. Though I have not quoted your full comment (because of space management), be rest assured I read it fully.
---
Though I supported PMB in 2011 and 2015, I have to say that I am somewhat disappointed with his handling of the economy till now. I am most unimpressed with the delay in appointing ministers, the budget controversy and the tight FX policy controls.
---
I also want to admit that, in retrospect, it does appear OBJ was the best manager of the economy in the last 16 years. He paid off $12billion debt to the Paris Club, left over $60b in Foreign Reserves and over $20b in Excess Crude Account. The banking consolidation and telecoms revolution all happened during his tenure. All this happened with an average oil price of less than $45 over his 8yr tenure.
---
Having said that I think it is completely uncharitable to discredit PMB by comparing the current economic realities with that of OBJ in 1999. Even though oil was $16pb in 1999, do you know what our Federal budget was by then? I'll remind you - it was ~N300b. I admit that the exchange rate was ~N98/$ by then. However, using an inflation rate of 9% over 16yrs, PMB would need oil price at ~$63pb and a meagre budget of N2tn to be on the same economic footing with OBJ in 1999. Sadly, the old man needs to fund a N6tn budget with $28pb oil price. Add that to the fact that our population has grown from 120m to over 170m now, and you will appreciate the weight on the shoulder of the old soldier.
---
It is my candid view that, economically, the Jonathan era was the worst in our democratic history. The average oil price during GEJ's 5yr reign was over $90pb, yet the country was left with less than $30b in FR and ~$2b in ECA. One cannot even point to any major economic activity that happened under him. Our power generation stood at less than 4,000MW in 2015, which is about what he inherited in 2011.
---
Now, this is not an exercise in blame as that would be an effort in futility, but this is just to offer some perspective to your earlier assertions. As @janellemonae noted earlier, president Obama inherited a collapsed economy from president Bush, yet today, the American economy has witnessed unemployment lower than it has ever been in its recent history (5%). The Stock Market made new all time highs under Obama. President Buhari has a similar situation to turn around the country and write his name in gold. History will not remember what made you fail but simply your success or failure.
---
I still firmly believe that, in spite of all his inadequacies, PMB is still a better option to run the economy at this present time. With all the revelations of financial mismanagement, GEJ would simply have been an economic catastrophe with such low oil prices.

wirinet:
It is possible that we consume up to 40 million litres a day. I consume close to 100 litres weekly to run both office and home as PHCN is yet to resume for Christmas break in my area. So imagine what lagos alone with over 2 million homes would be consuming just on generators. If I am assume Nigeria has a minimum of 15 million households with our estimated 170 million population, majority without electricity, then If even 5 million households consume 4 litres daily with " i better pass my neighbor" generator, then only generators would consumption at least 20 million litres daily. We have not even started talking about cars and artisans like barbers, welders and small businesses.

What i am trying to say is that we cannot solve our fuel problems without solving our electricity problem. Having constant electricity can reduce our fuel consumption by up to half.

Chukzyfcb:
Yes, its just a mere opinion. If there's nothig tangible to back it up. That was how sanusi, a CBN Governor at the time said 20billion dollars is missing, only for pwc audit to prove otherwise. So my friend, so long no document can prove such statement, its just a mere suggestion. That's how we roll in 9ja

jpphilips:
PWC submitted an inconclusive report under Jonathan, the Buhari administration has ordered for a fresh Audit, why are you pre-empting the report?
Where did PWC say that no money was missing? even the inconclusive report compelled NNPC to vomit $1.3b are you not aware?

LordAdam:
Believe it or not, I have read most of your posts in several economic issues and I must say I am impressed by your insight and honesty.

I maintain that it is okay for people to have divergent views, so do not see my reply as anything like a bashing of sorts.

With that said, I want to reply you because from me understanding of the tone the discussion in this thread is going, it appears there is an acceptance that PMB currently lacks the insight to assuage Nigeria's economic woes. That is a position, I have held prior to the election, and I stand vindicated.

However, my reason for replying you is the perceived acceptance that OBJ performed and GEJ did not.

That is unequivocally untrue.

I am not going to compare OBJ to GEJ (OBJ spent 8 years and GEJ spent 5 years). Still, OBJ paid off debts and left billions in the reserves because he did far less than he could have done. All the major sectors under his administration were majorly stagnant.

Even his top 2 achievements are questionable:
1. Telecommunications would have entered Nigeria at one point or the other. That it entered under OBJ is not an achievement. Should we also applaud the Shagari regime for bringing in computers? Did OBJ not oversee the colossal failure of NITEL? Was OBJ MTN, Econet, or Glo that spearheaded the widespread development of the telecommunication sector? What exactly did OBJ do other than sell licenses at exorbitant costs and wasting the government revenues?

2. Nigeria's financial sector is a joke. It has always been. Soludo's market recapitalization did not stop Sanusi from exposing the rot in the sector that led to famous "Sanusi tsunami" that saw several bank executives (most notably Cecilia Ibru) having to vacate their lofty positions. Even Soludo's begrudged "20 to 25 banks supporting the whole nation" is BS. There are over 5000 commercial banks in the US [although the figure has consistently fallen almost exclusively due to market forces and stricter fiscal policies (note not monetary policies)]. Over a quarter of those banks have just one office. They have national, regional, and local banks; a move that Sanusi gravitated to when he became CBN governor.

So what exactly was his achievement in the sector. Despite Nigeria having a larger economy than South Africa, can our banks compete with SA banks? What we need in the banking sector in Nigeria is strict policing of activities over successive regimes not terming one regime a better regime over the other because of myopic furtherances.

How many naira denominations did OBJ introduce?
What about the coins Soludo introduced whose inherent value were more than the face value they held?

===========================================================================================================

Now let us talk about the OBJ versus PMB scenario.

Did OBJ contest for four times before getting the presidency?

Who asked PMB to increase national budget by about 40% when he knows Nigeria does not have the funds to finance the budget? Every sane country hit by the oil price fall is reducing government spending and PMB wants to increase his. What is his rationality? With a weak reserve, weak currency, and dwindling revenues, PMB is doing exactly the same thing the stupid military leaders (himself included) did when we had oil price fall in the 80's that led us to pile the debts that OBJ canceled. Can the senile dictator not learn from past mistakes.

And come to think of it. This man inherited the exact same situation in his first stint. What do you say about a man that cannot learn from his mistakes or fails a second time for the same condition that he couldn't solve in his first stint?

Before you compare Nigeria's 300b budget in 1999 to 6t budget in 2016, can you for a moment compare the size of the Nigerian economy between 1999 and 2016?



Nigeria's GDP in 1999 was $35.87b
Nigeria's GDP in 2013 was $521.8b
How many percent increase is that?

Look at this graph and see how much of it expanded between 2010 and 2015 compared to 1969 to 2007.

Don't make excuses where there are none. Let's not talk about population. You didn't factor population in your GEJ analysis.

PMB is a failure. He is a disaster. And that you supported him twice (in 2011 and 2015), proves that you believe in fairy tales. At no point during PMB's time as a presidential candidate did he make an enlightened and concrete economic criticism of the government, unlike Atiku. Why did you believe he would have something to offer if he magically held the nation's piloting chair?

His best was that he would stabilize world price and make $1=N1, and an educated person like you voted him? I can stand uneducated illiterates saying they support him because they want to see their hated politicians in jail and that nothing else matters, but when an educated mind (who is able to make sound analysis) picks a man without a high school certificate, who has repeatedly goofed on economic policies to manage the 21st largest economy (by GDP) in the world, I have valid reason to question the sanity of your mind.

===========================================================================================================
To Jonathan, I don't believe a post would be enough to describe his achievements (actual concrete achievements) but I would try to be abridged.

1. Facilitating a relatively better environment to run a business. I use the world relatively, so that I can compare pre-GEJ days to GEJ days. Let us talk about the Inflation Rate, under OBJ, inflation rate rose from 6% in 1999 to 18% in 2001 (a 300% increase). When NOI took over in 2003, Nigeria's Inflation Rate was 14%, when she left in 2006, Inflation Rate had fallen to 6% (a more than 200% fall). OBJ left the nation with an Inflation rate of 5%, which rose to 13% when GEJ assumed government in 2010. Under, GEJ for the first time in 16 years, Inflation Rate fell continuously year over year to 8%.

Do you know how long it takes to register a company with CAC now compared to 2010?

Every other challenge in running a business in Nigeria now precedes GEJ's regime, and much of it is out of his hands. The National Assembly has repeatedly refused to wade in on how businesses are exploited by state and local governments. Challenges like vandalism that are endorsed by host communities are also out of his reach and the civil service has largely been characterized by an unholy plague of disservice.

Nigeria's GDP per capita increased by over 50% between 2010 and 2014, from approx $2,300 to $3,203. In related terms, it means that our spending power has increased. And is backed by the huge retail sector (malls, brands like shoprite, e-commerce stores like Jumia)...

2. Let's talk about infrastructural challenges since that is where you will gravitate to...

A. Power: Unenlightened people are quick to point out that power only improved marginally under GEJ. What I would want to ask you is if the vision for power under OBJ and GEJ was the same? OBJ believed in government spending, GEJ did not. OBJ invested circa $20b in Power in 8 years and all you can boast of is an increase of around 2000 MW and you are jubilating. GEJ's major plan was to involve private partnership and unbundle the sector because the vested interested of the power/diesel generator cabal made it difficult for any government-sponsored efforts to prosper. You can read up on the Roadmap on Power he unveiled in 2010.

Under Barth Nnaji, much of the reforms were instated and for the first time in Nigeria's history, millions of dollars were pumped in by private interests into the power sector. In 2013, the discos emerged. An the roadmap effect was felt.

Power generation increased from 2800MW in 2011 to 4517MW in 2015.Electricity transmission lines increased from 4,550km in 2010 to 15,760km in 2015. The electricity distribution capacity of the power sectoralmost tripled from 3,658MW in 2010 to 9,200MW in 2014. Transmission substations[b] increased from 121 to 162, with additional 122 projects under construction[/b]. In fact, under him, the first coal-to-power plant in Itobe, Kogi, to be constructed by Zuma Energy Nigeria Ltd was envisaged. As a reference, coal accounts for 39 percent of electricity generation in the US in 2014, and 41% of global electricity distribution. What's more is that we have 2 billion metric tonnes of untapped deposits around the Anambra Basin. Why did OBJ not think of it, since he was better than GEJ? What about the special CBN intervention N210b electricity fund meant to be available for private investors to borrow? Is that not better than just throwing money in the air? In fact to find out more -- check here

B. About roads, rather than just spout figures, I will ask you, can you firmly say that the road network after GEJ left was worse (or as you imply, nothing noteworthy) compared to what it was before he came in. If then, why is Fashola actually applauding the efforts of the past administration on road construction

C. Should we talk about the rail sector? When GMB supporters say GEJ brought in used trains, I like to ask which kind of trains Fashola went to inspect. And when they come up with the FG versus State Government card, I quickly remind them that the cost of connecting Los Angeles to California with a high-speed train is taking $63b and more than 5 years to build. What is the size of Nigeria's budget that you want to the government to invest in such type of white elephant projects? How are the trains in India (5th largest economy in the world), are the Mumbai trains high speed trains or the kind of trains GEJ bought. Should the emphasis not be on fueling growth rather than try to be Japan? GEJ revitalized the rail sector in Nigeria in an amazing way.

3. Let's talk about Education. How many new universities did GEJ launch? How about the massive increase in salary he gave the tertiary institutions.

4. Should we talk about Aviation and his largely successful attempt to revamp Nigeria's foremost international airports. Someone drew my attention to the Calabar Airport and how the renovation was not successful to which I asked, the money was released, contractors were chosen, and the federal aviation agency was tasked to ensure that the project was completed, who should we blame if the contractors effed up?

5. Some say the health sector did not receive any shakeup under GEJ, but he was able to contain Ebola (that killed only 20 people). When lassa fever struck in 2012, 42 people died. Under PMB, lassa fever has struck and 68 people have died under 2 months and the minister of health is busy spreading conspiracy theories of how the states are uncooperative, how it is GEJ's fault, and how it is an act of God. You said nothing happened, but polio was eradicated under GEJ.

About the reduced reserves and depleted ECA account, how would GEJ have fueled all these monumental developments, increased salaries (minimum wage and countless others, a lot of us seem to forget how often there were strikes under GEJ because everyone wanted a cut from the oil boom), and our break-neck growth speed while accumulating a giant reserve? Nigeria is neither Saudi Arabia, Norway, or China. We live in HELL, you cannot be reshaping the country and saving money at the same time. It is virtually impossible. In 2009, after the financial crisis, reserve was around $40b. In December 2014, reserves were around $30b. ECA was shared by all arms of government. Saraki and Amaechi championed the sharing calls by NGF.

Let me stop here. GEJ is better than OBJ, Yaradua, and PMB. Quote me anywhere. Voting PMB is an unforgivable mistake and you know it.

-Lord

Even his top 2 achievements are questionable:
1. Telecommunications would have entered Nigeria at one point or the other. That it entered under OBJ is not an achievement. Should we also applaud the Shagari regime for bringing in computers? Did OBJ not oversee the colossal failure of NITEL? Was OBJ MTN, Econet, or Glo that spearheaded the widespread development of the telecommunication sector? What exactly did OBJ do other than sell licenses at exorbitant costs and wasting the government revenues?

2. Nigeria's financial sector is a joke. It has always been. Soludo's market recapitalization did not stop Sanusi from exposing the rot in the sector that led to famous "Sanusi tsunami" that saw several bank executives (most notably Cecilia Ibru) having to vacate their lofty positions. Even Soludo's begrudged "20 to 25 banks supporting the whole nation" is BS. There are over 5000 commercial banks in the US [although the figure has consistently fallen almost exclusively due to market forces and stricter fiscal policies (note not monetary policies)]. Over a quarter of those banks have just one office. They have national, regional, and local banks; a move that Sanusi gravitated to when he became CBN governor.

Who asked PMB to increase national budget by about 40% when he knows Nigeria does not have the funds to finance the budget? Every sane country hit by the oil price fall is reducing government spending and PMB wants to increase his. What is his rationality? With a weak reserve, weak currency, and dwindling revenues, PMB is doing exactly the same thing the stupid military leaders (himself included) did when we had oil price fall in the 80's that led us to pile the debts that OBJ canceled. Can the senile dictator not learn from past mistakes.

And come to think of it. This man inherited the exact same situation in his first stint. What do you say about a man that cannot learn from his mistakes or fails a second time for the same condition that he couldn't solve in his first stint?

Before you compare Nigeria's 300b budget in 1999 to 6t budget in 2016, can you for a moment compare the size of the Nigerian economy between 1999 and 2016?



Nigeria's GDP in 1999 was $35.87b
Nigeria's GDP in 2013 was $521.8b
How many percent increase is that?

Look at this graph and see how much of it expanded between 2010 and 2015 compared to 1969 to 2007.

PMB is a failure. He is a disaster. And that you supported him twice (in 2011 and 2015), proves that you believe in fairy tales. At no point during PMB's time as a presidential candidate did he make an enlightened and concrete economic criticism of the government, unlike Atiku. Why did you believe he would have something to offer if he magically held the nation's piloting chair?

1. Facilitating a relatively better environment to run a business. I use the world relatively, so that I can compare pre-GEJ days to GEJ days. Let us talk about the Inflation Rate, under OBJ, inflation rate rose from 6% in 1999 to 18% in 2001 (a 300% increase). When NOI took over in 2003, Nigeria's Inflation Rate was 14%, when she left in 2006, Inflation Rate had fallen to 6% (a more than 200% fall). OBJ left the nation with an Inflation rate of 5%, which rose to 13% when GEJ assumed government in 2010. Under, GEJ for the first time in 16 years, Inflation Rate fell continuously year over year to 8%.

2. Let's talk about infrastructural challenges since that is where you will gravitate to...

[quote]A. Power: Unenlightened people are quick to point out that power only improved marginally under GEJ. What I would want to ask you is if the vision for power under OBJ and GEJ was the same? OBJ believed in government spending, GEJ did not. OBJ invested circa $20b in Power in 8 years and all you can boast of is an increase of around 2000 MW and you are jubilating. GEJ's major plan was to involve private partnership and unbundle the sector because the vested interested of the power/diesel generator cabal made it difficult for any government-sponsored efforts to prosper. You can read up on the Roadmap on Power he unveiled in 2010.
Under Barth Nnaji, much of the reforms were instated and for the first time in Nigeria's history, millions of dollars were pumped in by private interests into the power sector. In 2013, the discos emerged. An the roadmap effect was felt.

Power generation increased from 2800MW in 2011 to 4517MW in 2015.Electricity transmission lines increased from 4,550km in 2010 to 15,760km in 2015. The electricity distribution capacity of the power sectoralmost tripled from 3,658MW in 2010 to 9,200MW in 2014. Transmission substations[b] increased from 121 to 162, with additional 122 projects under construction[/b]. In fact, under him, the first coal-to-power plant in Itobe, Kogi, to be constructed by Zuma Energy Nigeria Ltd was envisaged. As a reference, coal accounts for 39 percent of electricity generation in the US in 2014, and 41% of global electricity distribution. What's more is that we have 2 billion metric tonnes of untapped deposits around the Anambra Basin. Why did OBJ not think of it, since he was better than GEJ? What about the special CBN intervention N210b electricity fund meant to be available for private investors to borrow? Is that not better than just throwing money in the air? In fact to find out more -- check here

Elections are over, Jonathan privatized the power sector you said, who built the assets that were privatized OBJ!! that murders the argument right?
Here is the list of Power plants in Nigeria, subtract 4-5yrs from their completion date and tell me how Your Jonathan built them, despite huge oil windfall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Nigeria

You claimed in your post that GEJ facilitated the ease of doing business especially the CAC registration, yet you undermined OBJ's input in telecoms revolution, aren't you speaking from the two compasses of your mouth? what changed in 2000 that companies operating since 1994 elsewhere could not make a foot print in Nigeria? Don't you think that some economic parameters must have changed with OBJ for it to attract such foreign investments at the time? Or you think that foreign investors are !diots who roam the universe for fun?

After exposing the so called "rot" in the banking industry, we quickly reminded Sanusi that he was the CBN governor not the EFCC chairman, he agreed and got back to work, these are exactly what his economic Ingenuity proffered.

1) Sanusi bailed out the distressed banks, meanwhile, his predecessor he rubbished created an EDW, so tell me, what is the difference between "A bail out fund and The Extended discount window"? The last time I checked, they are both Government funds loaned to the private sector at low interest rate. Correct me if i am wrong.

2) Sanusi sold the banks, meanwhile Soludo opted for a merger that left investors fund intact, while investors lost all their Funds in Sanusi's acquisition. Intercontinental comes to mind.

3) Sanusi threw government funds at islamic banks meanwhile Soludo licenced them and tasked them to invest their own funds.

4) Sanusi gave us internet banking meanwhile, Soludo gave us ATM cards, ATM machines and Interswitch (as Economic adviser to the president), whatever Sanusi built on those are immaterial.

Can you see from the 4 examples above that Sanusi did not do anything new in the banking industry rather he rubbished Soludo then went back to reproduce his ideas, we are safe to assume that the noise making era of Sanusi is as a result of poor understanding of Soludo's strategy right? I agree with you though that he has a stint for "exposing rots" which makes him a better EFCC chairman than a CBN governor.
Comparing Soludo with Sanusi under any guise should attract a death penalty, please don't make that mistake in public again.

I agree with you on this part not without some reservations though, first the increased budget threw the big chunk on infrastructural development, it is assumed that the Govt will spend more on infrastructural rehabilitation to stimulate the private sector hence create jobs.
Countries that are equally hard hit in this oil crisis, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have unemployment rates of 5.2%, 11.67% and 5.7% respectively, Nigeria has unemployment rate of 23.9%, while the government claims 8.9% without a comprehensive database, international watchers use 23.9% with a shocking poverty rate of 71%.

You can see clearly that Unemployment in Nigeria behooves a state of emergency unlike the countries that cut budgets in the face of plummeting oil prices.

Ridiculous proposition, rebasing an Economy is done every 10yrs, Nigeria never did for a long time till Iweala deemed it fit, it was done in 2013 does not mean that all the parameters that contributed to the growth was effective in 2013.
After the GDP was rebased, the following sectors were f!ngered as the contributory factors to the growth.

1) Telecoms sector, Internet and ICT: This is without doubt an OBJ's legacy, according to FI it contributed over 35% in that GDP.

2) Nollywood: As crazy as it sounds, Jonathan made a significant investment there in

3)Banking/Finance: We know it is an indisputable OBJ's legacy. Nigerian Banks that used to fail annually before OBJ metamorphosed to multinational financial institutions after feeling the prowess of Soludo.

4) Oil and gas servicing companies: While Jonathan was busy stealing Assets with his indigenization policy and packaging "Flaring permit" in his much touted PIB, Obasanjo strengthened the PSC that saw the birth of 8 new deepwater oil fields, by 2005, that number grew to 14. According to industry watchers, the PSC is the "TOAST" of the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

5) Low debt/GDP ratio gave a boost to investors that stimulated all the other sectors : Even the devil will give OBJ credit for this.

6) real estate: Jonathan over saw the Amendment of the Land use act that he never signed to law BTW, however speculation fueled by the Bill, stimulated the Real estate sector.

7) wholesale and retail: Nobody can really claim it wholely.


You can see clearly that the economic indicators that grew the GDP is actually a vindication of the OBJ administration.

If you are really of a sound mind like you claim, you will agree its premature to draw the above conclusion at this stage.

No sound mind believed the statistics Jonathanians were churning out at the time, so it is in your interest to ignore the ruse.

Soludo made this comment about those statistics and NOI never refuted it.


"“What worries me is that this government is the first in our history to attempt to manipulate our national statistics under Okonjo-Iweala. When NBS published the poverty figures in 2011, she felt indicted and incensed. She called upon the World Bank to come and examine the ‘methodology’ and get NBS to ‘review’ its numbers. Oby Ezekwesili (as VP Africa Region rejected the call to try to tamper with a country’s statistics). Once Oby left, the ‘World Bank’ started talking about ‘new figures’, without conducting any new surveys.
I was told about it by a World Bank economist, and I cautioned that it was a dangerous gamble that would damage the credibility of the NBS. If you want to ‘review methodology’, you conduct another survey but you can’t change ‘methodology’ because you don’t like the published figures. No government in our history has tried it: even Sani Abacha allowed a poverty survey that put poverty at 67% under his regime.....Soludo""

Elections are over, Jonathan privatized the power sector you said, who built the assets that were privatized OBJ!! that murders the argument right?

Here is the list of Power plants in Nigeria, subtract 4-5yrs from their completion date and tell me how Your Jonathan built them, despite huge oil windfall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Nigeria

I nearly wanted to enlighten you further till I read where you claimed Polio was eradicated by GEJ, I only wish Bill gates, USAID and Emeka Ofor will read that nonsense you wrote

I do not agree. And it proves one thing, that have a flawed understanding of the English language.

I made a logical conclusion with a fact-based theory. PMB failed in his first stint as a military ruler. In his 12 years vying for the presidency, he never made a valid economic criticism. Rather he was making assertions that were economically impossible, stabilizing world oil price, and ensuring $1 equates N1. So why did you and every person that voted PMB believe that he would magically transform the economy?

Let me ask you, when a job candidate shows up with fail grading in his/her college certificate, says trash in the interview (performs poorly), do you give him/her the job?

As far as managing an economy is concerned PMB is a failure. History repeats itself. If you voted for him solely because of fighting corruption, then fine. But do not complain about the ailing economy. That is the tradeoff. Lopsided corruption fight for mismanaged economy.

So if you want to wait till 2019 to recognize you made a mistake, be my guest.
============================================================================================================

Use your brain. The billions of dollars in private investment that were entering Nigeria under GEJ believed and bet their fortune on those statistics. Unless you can show me your manufacturing complex, you can shove your opinion in the pelvic region of your body where the sun does not shine.

Soludo is an attention-seeker and technocrat cum politician who is only minded about his gains. Nigeria's poverty rate is at 71%, what does he want it to be pegged at. The World Bank is the world's leading economic body. I am not saying they can't make mistakes, but I will pick them any day over a tenured consultant. He had his opinion which he stated and was summarily debunked by World Bank officials.

Ask him if the cost of the new survey he is proposing justifies the numerical changes between the NBS figures and the possible realistic figures. If the change was not huge, of what use was organizing a new survey from the scratch.

And to cap it off, why did NOI have to reply him when the World Bank had vindicated her. What more did she have to say. Silence, they say, is the best answer to a ****.

Ok! you believed Iweala's statistics I guess, IQ test for you, show me any Country in the world with Iweala's debt profile, same debt/GDP ratio, same inflation rate with 71% poverty. Just one country if you can!!

Don't be deceived, Abacha did better with investors than Jonathan, Jonathan only attracted "middle men","percentage takers", "Racketeers" and "licensed con men". It was jonathan that taught us that a militant can jet off with a pastor's private jet with millions of dollars in cash to procure arms for a country.
NIMASA a government agency became over night ATM for militants. It was jonathan that told us that even the government can be conned in daylight through subsidies and the same Government remain helpless despite its apparatchik. All are investors by your standards, #spits#

Tell us how world bank vindicated her forged statistics? let me guess, by denying her the World bank presidency in preferance to a green horn?
No point asking you to use your brain, just borrow one.

Again, your poor understanding of the English language prove you unfit to engage in an intellectual discussion with me.

I said "GEJ's major plan was to involve private partnership and unbundle the sector because the vested interested of the power/diesel generator cabal made it difficult for any government-sponsored efforts to prosper. You can read up on the Roadmap on Power he unveiled in 2010."

Plan of which much was instated but not all and which is still on-going as we speak. I admonish you to read this page so you are better informed http://www.mondaq.com/Nigeria/x/364664/Oil+Gas+Electricity/Power+Sector+Privatisation+in+Nigeria+Opportunities+and+Challenges

If you are attempting to say OBJ should be applauded for wasting Nigeria's money with virtually nothing or little to show for it, then yes show your support for inefficiency, incompetence, wastage, and corruption. OBJ is single-handedly responsible for the glut in the power sector. We can manage the failings of the military rulers, after all they failed in every other sector so there is nothing new. But OBJ had the opportunity, the revenue, and the reason to change things but performed woefully. Unfortunately GEJ who was trying to clean his mess got roped in to take the blame.

About the projects, here is something for you to digest...

https://i1295.photobucket.com/albums/b636/LordAdam/Wikipedia_Incomplete_zpslbrmnjjm.jpg

You want me to waste my time with an incomplete article. Suck It!!!
============================================================================================================

Do you "unbundle" what does not exist? Do you "privatize" what does not exist? So Obj built, then GEJ unbundled and privatized .
The task I gave you was simple, list out the plants that was constructed during the reign of Jonathan, OBJ's speak for itself. writing Kilometers of cable that can not carry beyond 5,000MW is best read as a lullaby for your pregnant wife.

Don't amuse yourself to believe you have the mental capacity to enlighten me. I do not mean to sound disrespectful, but save your enlightenment for someone else, not me. I am above your league.

Then again, I should ask you, who do we accord the praise for ending the BH scourge (even though most of the reclaimed territories were recovered under the last administration, and that PMB did not buy any weapon until the military declared victory a few weeks back)?

Even then, you goofed by greatly misinterpreting my statement, I said "polio was eradicated under GEJ" not "polio was eradicated BY GEJ."

When I used 'under,' I demonstrated tact to show that the polio fight was not a one-man fight or a fight that happened in just one administration. Nevertheless, Nigeria was declared polio-free by WHO when Jonathan was in power after he intensified the fight. Don't be a blind hater. If I had used "by" then it suggests that "Jonathan eradicated polio all by himself, which is not accurate". So your statement is invalid. Try harder next time: Oh wait, there will be no next time.

You can as well say eradicating Ebola was the handiwork of USAID, Doctors without Borders, and many philantrophic individuals/organizations that made donations (both in public and in private). Your hypocrisy and hate stinks to high heavens. HELL has need of your services.

Time and again you have proven your inadequacy to make meaningful points. You should take a bow, re-educate yourself on how to argue points, and, I say this at the risk of sounding demeaning, check your mental status.

Nigerians of voting age should have their IQ checked before they are given Voters cards.
============================================================================================================

To every other person (including you jpphilips) that wants to take the tempting plunge of replying me with a rebuttal for any of my post in this thread, know that I will not waste my time to educate you. I have far better things to do. The only reason for my reply in this thread was to inform Bevista of certain facts he may have overlooked while making his conclusions.

Although I anticipated rebuttals from like-minded folks that unfortunately do not have his level of intelligence and insight, I made zero provisions to reply such people. So if you have an opposing opinion, go F**K yourself with it. Don't quote me. I will not reply you.

I have based all my conclusions on facts you too can find if you search hard enough, I refuse to be the one to lift you from your mental slavery.

-Lord

Facilitating ease of doing business and the telecoms revolution are not in the same league. Of course, it will be difficult for you to recognize that.

Let me put it simply. Telecoms revolution would have happened without OBJ's input. It was always coming.As a fast growing economy, we needed it, the companies registered intent and OBJ conceded. So yeah, I have every reason to downplay it.

1. The difference is in the peculiar reason why they are given the fund. You don't seem to think things through before you open your buccal cavity or let your hands do their thing on a keyboard. The entire cost of the bail-out fund for the banks was N3t--http://businessnews.com.ng/2011/09/09/n3-trillion-official-cost-of-bank-bailout-cbn/. That is half Nigeria's 2016 budget. In contrast, extended discount window is a way of telling the banks to continue what they were doing. Let me put it this way. EDW is a way to endorse what the banks are doing, giving them more leeway, and are carried out routinely. Bailouts is money wrapped with a middle-finger and accompanied with calls for reforms. Soludo is one of the major reasons (I use 'one', because the financial crises was another major reason) why we had to spend that much money. If he had done his job, Sanusi would have spent much lower, and less banks would have been affected by the 'Sanusi tsunami'. It's that simple.

2. Mergers and Acquisition is not the same as buying and leasing land, there are many dynamics at play. I am not a financial expert, but I will do my best to use my limited knowledge to prove the fallacy of your statement. Investors did not lose "all their money" during the acquisitions, their stocks were simply revalued.

3. If Sanusi really had to give money to the Islamic Banks is debatable. But the real question to ask is if he broke any laws by doing so. He did not. Don't bring your averse for a religion to a logical debate.

4. Listen to yourself. Misappropriating accomplishments. Sanusi did not give us Internet Banking, the banks did. Soludo did not give us ATM machines, ATM cards, or Interswitch; the banks did. Interswitch is a private company like Quickteller and Verve.

The Banks gave you internet banking under whose policy? Quickteller was licensed by who?
Are you saying that you don't know that internet banking operations rolled out as a result of the "Cashless policy"?
Look at a newt with negative IQ is asking me to sound intelligent.
You don't even know how Internet banking came to be?
this must be a secondary school leaver. I feel so sorry for myself.

This is the only information that will be difficult to source from Google as I expected you goofed.
I knew you were a fake when you had no analytical strength, just google, copy the article and paste. how you convinced yourself it makes you intelligent is the bedazzling part. That explains why it took you ages to respond the last time, which is very unusual for a jobless bloke like you.

When next you consult Google, ask him which medication to switch to

There is a reason why I always support my facts with researchable valid data. Let me spell it out for you.

Oshogbo local champion, hope your Bank is no longer giving you internet banking from Shagari's policies

It streamlines discussion, arguments, and theories. If you dispute the Nigeria's unemployment rate data of 9%, then you can as well dispute the figure on population, size of the economy, number of people that have been killed by Lassa fever. When it comes to data, you don't cherry-pick the ones that suit you and dismiss the ones that don't without providing reasons that hold water. You say our government's data is based on a database that is not comprehensive. And you are comparing the data with Russia that is a communist country, has the largest land-mass on the planet, with tight controls on free-speech and has been repeatedly caught pants down trying to sell a rosy situation when the real deal is much worse. Or Iran that is doing all it can to prove that the US/EU sanctions are not really affecting them that much, or Saudi Arabia that is killing citizens that dare question the regime and runs a welfare scheme that cost tens of billions dollars annually.

You really want to discuss Iran when you have no idea where internet banking came from?

When our GDP was rebased, GDP for each year was re-calculated going as far back as to 24 years back (from 2014 when the re-base was done). The rebasing, aside to show the true size of Nigeria's economy, was done to show how each sector contributed to the economy. So my previous point still stands and it also proves how shallow you reason to iterate that I opined that "all the parameters that contributed to the growth was effective in 2013".

Gentlemen, our internet nuisance is discussing GDP when he has no idea where internet banking came from, someone kind should remind him it is not an Aguiyi ironsi's policy before he says it to his wife

4. You call the PIB bill stealing? I am getting tired of replying your callousness. A bill that has been supported round the industry with very little opposition and will increase nationalistic involvement is what you call stealing? Are you high on something? Are you even Nigerian?

The PIB bill is the best thing to happen in the oil and gas sector, and that it has not been passed proves that there are many unpatriotic powers at play.

The ambitious fvctard really want to discuss PIB? Google brain.

About the deepwater oil fields. Is it the same oil fields that are been sold/offered for sale by the multi-nationals now. http://uk.reuters.com/article/total-nigeria-sale-idUKL5N0RD4ID20140916

PSC was introduced in 1993, it was edited in 2000 and again in 2005. Even with editing it two times and selling off 22 licences throughout his tenure, he did zilch to plug the rot and huge leakages in the sector. And I do not know why you should call that an achievement.

A. It was not initiated by him
B. What he did is akin to PMB restructuring NNPC. It is nice, but is not a noteworthy achievement.

Bevista:
@jpphilips - just stumbled on this thread again and noticed your banter with the other bloke. You guys seem to be making some interesting economic argument, but unfortunately, it's all getting watered-down by the personal attacks.
---
It would be nice to read comments that does not drag the personality of commenter into it. Now, I feel even more justified and vindicated that I did not respond when my earlier comment was quoted.