Nowenuse:


First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

I wasnt wrong in any way, of course I was referring to the SE and SS; a lot of people from the SS and SE were diehard passionate about GEJ in 2015 and that passion drove people out to vote far more than the hatred for Buhari or APC. Now that passion is certainly no more, and I dont see PDP in 2019 fielding any charismatic candidate that can drive such passion in the SS and SE. Imagine PDP fielding Atiku or Dankwambo or Lamido? You really think these northerners can pull the same GeJ enthusiasm in the SE or SS? Never! However you look at it, there would be serious voter apathy in the far south, except PDP puts its house in order quickly and fields a person like Duke etc.

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

The same people who voted Buhari from the north would most likely still vote for him again; of course Benue and plateau and southern kaduna are excluded (when I even say north, I dont mean the middle belt).

The 2019 election will once again be greatly driven by the two extremities; i.e. the far south (SE SS) and far north (NW, NE and a chunk of the north central). The SW would still be divided almost 50-50 just like it happened in 2015 (Buhari only won the SW with an insignificant margin). Nothing much has changed in the dynamics in the SW especially since the PDP hasnt put its house in order. I dont see the SW tilting to PDP if PDP fields people like Atiku, Dankwambo or Lamido.

Nowenuse:


Now I know that I have discussing with a politcally ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015? My own state?

Oga Goodluck won Buhari in Plateau state with around 100k votes. Go and check the records again! Buhari hss never and can never win in Plateau & Nasarawa states in the NC. APC only won in the governorship elections. Pls don't misinform people here and disgrace yourself!

he's an APC person and a solid sycophant,everyone except the sycophants is waiting for next year election to vote him out.

Nowenuse:


Now I know that I have discussing with a politcally ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015? My own state?

Oga Goodluck won Buhari in Plateau state with around 100k votes. Go and check the records again! Buhari hss never and can never win in Plateau & Nasarawa states in the NC. APC only won in the governorship elections. Pls don't misinform people here and disgrace yourself!

Okay that's an oversight on my part, but that doesnt make me politically ignorant. With 100k votes difference, thats almost 50-50, and you really think whoever PDP fields in 2019 would miraculously make APC unable to secure up to 25% of votes in 2019?... We will soon know who is the political toddler here

Bizibi:
he's an APC person and a solid sycophant,everyone except the sycophants is waiting for next year election to vote him out.

I guess you are then a PDP sycophant? Silly reasoning. We are talking simple number addition and sumple logic based on political dynamics, but an empty vessel only knows how to vomit sentimental arguments.

For your info, I dont even want Buhari to return in 2019, but common sense should tell you that he doesnt seem to have any viable opposition so far. Common sense and not stinking sentiments please.

obailala:
I guess you are then a PDP sycophant? Silly reasoning. We are talking simple number addition and sumple logic based on political dynamics, but an empty vessel only knows how to vomit sentimental arguments.

yea,simple number additions......

Bizibi:
yea,simple number additions......

Yes, simple number additions and application of common sense logic... I can see you are incapable of contributing any sensible logic, only sentimental blabbering seems to be your forte.

"Everyone is waiting to vote him out", with you logic, that also includes millions of people in the north too right?

For your info, I dont even want Buhari to return in 2019, but common sense should tell you that he doesnt seem to have any viable opposition so far. Common sense and not stinking sentiments please.

obailala:
Yes, simple number additions and application of common sense logic... I can see you are incapable of contributing any sensible logic, only sentimental blabbering seems to be your forte.

For your info, I dont even want Buhari to return in 2019, but common sense should tell you that he doesnt seem to have any viable opposition so far. Common sense and not stinking sentiments please.

oh!!!! Please!!! This is February.....infact no one should even argue until all political parties have conducted their primaries then your simple mathematics can come in Mr political analyst.....you can argue from now till tomorrow, as long as it is a northerner vs northerner battle ground buhari will lose that election thanks their region level of illiteracy.

Bizibi:
oh!!!! Please!!! This is February.....infact no one should even argue until all political parties have conducted their primaries then your simple mathematics can come in Mr political analyst.....you can argue from now till tomorrow, as long as it is a northerner vs northerner battle ground buhari will lose that election thanks their region level of illiteracy.

Northerners vs Northerner, you obviously do not know how those people you term illiterates worship Buhari. The SE and SS are the only areas that would vote sharply against Buhari and APC; but considering the fact that the only alternative would be 'another malam', you simply fail to note the severe level of voter apathy that would take place in the far south which is supposed to provide the much needed weight to push Buhari out.

For you to even assume that people down south would troop out of their houses, under the sun and in the rain, enmass like it happened in 2015 to go vote in an election with 2 northern candidates, you must be a dreamer.

Brother, if PDP doesnt get its candidate extremely right, Buhari is going to die in Aso rock.

obailala:
Okay that's an oversight on my part, but that doesnt make me politically ignorant. With 100k votes difference, thats almost 50-50, and you really think whoever PDP fields in 2019 would miraculously make APC unable to secure up to 25% of votes in 2019?... We will soon know who is the political toddler here

Yes, Buhari got much votes from Plateau in 2015 because many of us fell for the change slogan and we were dissapointed in GEJ... But now we know better, so he ain't getting shittt.
In 2011, don't forget that we gave GEJ more than 1 million votes in Plateau and Buhari did not get up to 25%.

Nowenuse:


Yes, Buhari got much votes from Plateau in 2015 because many of us fell for the change slogan and we were dissapointed in GEJ... But now we know better, so he ain't getting shittt.
In 2011, don't forget that we gave GEJ more than 1 million votes in Plateau and Buhari did not get up to 25%.

Permit me to borrow your exact strong words:
"Now I know that I have been discussing with a politically ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015did not get 25% of the votes in Plateau in 2011? My your own state?"

Buhari in 2011 got 356,551 out of a total of 1,411,117 votes in your state; and from my calculations, that's exactly 25%. Now let's go back to the little details of that time; Plateau was a PDP controlled state in 2011 and PDP controlled Abuja and INEC and the CBN. Furthermore, Buhari was running under the umbrella of an unknown 1-man party which had no single grassroot structure anywhere; yet he was able to pull 25% in a largely PDP state. Today the dynamics have changed, Buhari runs with APC which isn't just a national party with grassroot structures, it's also the national ruling party in Abuja and also the party controlling your state and controlling INEC and the CBN. But yet you feel APC cannot get a meagre 25% of the votes from Plateau in 2019 because of what exactly?... Now I truly know I've been arguing with a political neophyte.

Nowenuse:


First of all, you are wrong by saying Abia is one of the least populated states. Aba is the most populated city in the SE.

Do you think that the North did not rig elections for Buhari? How come there were no cancelled votes in the entire Kano state? What about the almajiris and underaged voters in the north?

The Card reader malfunctioned in many parts of the SE/SS..... Many areas of the SS quickly started manual thumbprinting but the SE areas did not. This was why their votes were lower.

Please talk with fact. Abia has just 2.3 million population. It is number 28 on the list of states population. It is less populated than Edo State.

Kano and Lagos have 9 million each. Oyo 6 million. All these using last census figures.

So how can Abia have more votes than Oyo? If to check well, all the states with 2 and 3 million population have similar number of votes. Card reader exposed the rigging previously done in South East.

Suplexx:


Please talk with fact. Abia has just 2.3 million population. It is number 28 on the list of states population. It is less populated than Edo State.

Kano and Lagos have 9 million each. Oyo 6 million. All these using last census figures.

So how can Abia have more votes than Oyo? If to check well, all the states with 2 and 3 million population have similar number of votes. Card reader exposed the rigging previously done in South East.

So you are relying on that sham of a 2006 census for facts? I thought you would honestly know better. A census that claimed that Kano was more populated than Lagos state? A census that claimed that Katsina was more populated than Oyo, Delta & Rivers states? A ceneus that claimed that Jigawa was more populated than Ogun & Edo? A census that claimed that Zamfara was more populated than Plateau & Abia? What a joke!


More verifiable population determing sources like the Telecoms industry has helped reasonable Nigerians and the international community to better ascertain population spread in Nigeria......

Check the list of the national bureau of statistics on telecom call subscribers to get a better picture of population spread in Nigeria.

http://www.nigerianmonitor.com/list-of-states-with-the-highest-number-of-phones-and-internet-subscribers/amp/

Compare the population of active call subscribers in Abia with that of Jigawa, Bauchi & Zamfara, then compare how many votes did Jigawa, Bauchi & Zamfara give to Buhari with what Abia gave to GEJ in 2011. .....Then come back let us talk.

obailala:
Permit me to borrow your exact strong words:
"Now I know that I have been discussing with a politically ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015did not get 25% of the votes in Plateau in 2011? My your own state?"

Buhari in 2011 got 356,551 out of a total of 1,411,117 votes in your state; and from my calculations, that's exactly 25%. Now let's go back to the little details of that time; Plateau was a PDP controlled state in 2011 and PDP controlled Abuja and INEC and the CBN. Furthermore, Buhari was running under the umbrella of an unknown 1-man party which had no single grassroot structure anywhere; yet he was able to pull 25% in a largely PDP state. Today the dynamics have changed, Buhari runs with APC which isn't just a national party with grassroot structures, it's also the national ruling party in Abuja and also the party controlling your state and controlling INEC and the CBN. But yet you feel APC cannot get a meagre 25% of the votes from Plateau in 2019 because of what exactly?... Now I truly know I've been arguing with a political neophyte.

Ok, my bad in the calculation of Buhari's percentage in 2011. I guess I made a mistake in my own calculation and arrived at 23%.


See, pls, let me make one fact clear to you.. In Plateau, we do not rig elections for parties. We hardly do that! So, a party being on seat does not mean that they will or can influence elections to their favour, no, it would be resisted. What you are worth is exactly what you will get in Plateau state. Chikena.

This was why you could see that in 2015, PDP won in the presidential elections while APC won in the governorship. This hardly happened anywhere else in Nigeria apart from Gombe.


Also, don't forget that in 2011, Buhari had a somewhat clean record and many people were still willing to give him a try. My own father was one of such, I think he even voted Buhari that time and urged others to do same......
This is typically unlike now when most people are highly dissapointed in Buhari and have seen that he has nothing to offer!
Lalong who is our governor has also made us regretted voting APC in. See the way he is disgracing us. He is packing his bags too next year. I bet he will not even win in his LGA Shendam next year. .....There is a very strong anti-Buhari sentiment in my state.....

No reasonable Plateau indigene will vote Buhari next year and the settlers/muslim minority who vote based on religious sentiments are not up to 25% in the state to deliver such.

The people that will throw Buhari under the bus are still with him. In APC deceiving him. It's not about his fans or who loves him. Elections are still far ahead.

Many APC states will switch to PDP. If Buhari survives the election it will be very narrow, and he'll be subsequently impeached.

Nowenuse:


Ok, my bad in the calculation of Buhari's percentage in 2011. I guess I made a mistake in my own calculation and arrived at 23%.


See, pls, let me make one fact clear to you.. In Plateau, we do not rig elections for parties. We hardly do that! So, a party being on seat does not mean that they will or can influence elections to their favour, no, it would be resisted. What you are worth is exactly what you will get in Plateau state. Chikena.

This was why you could see that in 2015, PDP won in the presidential elections while APC won in the governorship. This hardly happened anywhere else in Nigeria apart from Gombe.


Also, don't forget that in 2011, Buhari had a somewhat clean record and many people were still willing to give him a try. My own father was one of such, I think he even voted Buhari that time and urged others to do same......
This is typically unlike now when most people are highly dissapointed in Buhari and have seen that he has nothing to offer!
Lalong who is our governor has also made us regretted voting APC in. See the way he is disgracing us. He is packing his bags too next year. I bet he will not even win in his LGA Shendam next year. .....There is a very strong anti-Buhari sentiment in my state.....

No reasonable Plateau indigene will vote Buhari next year and the settlers/muslim minority who vote based on religious sentiments are not up to 25% in the state to deliver such.

Hmmm... you speak so highly of your people, of their collective focus and undiluted unity in taking decisions; you have so much trust in your people that they all share your sentiments and would all vote out Buhari and you also have so much faith in the infallibility of the electoral process in your state, wonderful!

Would really be interesting to witness how an incumbent governor with national backing would not be able to secure up to 25% of votes for his party.

Nowenuse:


So you are relying on that sham of a 2006 census for facts? I thought you would honestly know better. A census that claimed that Kano was more populated than Lagos state? A census that claimed that Katsina was more populated than Oyo, Delta & Rivers states? A ceneus that claimed that Jigawa was more populated than Ogun & Edo? A census that claimed that Zamfara was more populated than Plateau & Abia? What a joke!


More verifiable population determing sources like the Telecoms industry has helped reasonable Nigerians and the international community to better ascertain population spread in Nigeria......

Check the list of the national bureau of statistics on telecom call subscribers to get a better picture of population spread in Nigeria.

http://www.nigerianmonitor.com/list-of-states-with-the-highest-number-of-phones-and-internet-subscribers/amp/

Compare the population of active call subscribers in Abia with that of Jigawa, Bauchi & Zamfara, then compare how many votes did Jigawa, Bauchi & Zamfara give to Buhari with what Abia gave to GEJ in 2011. .....Then come back let us talk.

Abia has one of the least number of registered voters. It is number 25 on the list of highest registered voters. It has 1.3 registered voters. Only higher than Bayelsa, Ekiti, Abuja, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Kwara, Kogi, Gombe, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers. The number of voters in each state almost mirrored the states population table. So the census are even kind of correct.

Every census from time, even before 1960 have always had it that the North is more populated.

Just look at every census from beginning.

The question is how did Abia have 1.1 million votes in 2011? Are they saying everyone who registered in 2011 voted? Had had almost 100% turnout where states in North and South West were having 30-40% turn out.

When card reader was used, the percentage turnout of voters from SE and SS aligned with the rest of the country.

Nowenuse:

Currently Lagos has about 6m registered voters

Kano has about 5 million

Abia has 1.3 million

How did Abia record near the number of voters in Lagos or Kano in 2011?

One major reason why Buhari will still win is that most southerners will choose not to vote on that day

I doubt

North central will be the reverse in 2019

Abegiii -- make we hear word.

Suplexx:
Nowenuse:

Currently Lagos has about 6m registered voters

Kano has about 5 million

Abia has 1.3 million

How did Abia record near the number of voters in Lagos or Kano in 2011?

Where did u see it?

Buhari will win only because he is going to rig the elections. I pity Nigerians. Your suffering is about to continue.

Harrynight:
I always fear he doesn't run cos if he does, sadly he will will against all odds. ...
Our Nightmare continues

Don't say he will win against all odds. The likelihood of Buhari losing is high

Nowenuse:


First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

...come to the north and u would understand better

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

These are real facts

obailala:
Lol... very wrong assumptions, Buhari actually WON in those 2 states in 2015 even with the Christian population. Whilst it would be near impossible for him to win those states again in 2019 (especially Benue), gaining 25% would be a walk in the park (might be slightly difficult in Benue though).

Buhari Did Not win Plateau in 2015 and
would not Win it in 2019.
If he gets 10℅ he is very lucky loooool
Trust me if you stay Here in Plateau U would have know those Few who fell for the SCAM are now back to their senses.

Awoo88:

Don't say he will win against all odds. The likelihood of Buhari losing is high

Is it coz of what you read on social media? My oga shine your eyes

4kDdullard:
E go do the dullard like magic

just chill, it’s just one year away, we go know who he go do like films trick

I don't agree! You know why?

Because so may Nigerians will be correcting their mistakes come 2019

There is no region which doesn't vote based on Sentiments.


First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

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