₦airaland Forum

tuniski:
You don't get it!
Every election is uniquely different by its undercurrents. Buhari was hanging around 6m+ till 2011 when the clamor for power remaining in the north, after the demise of YarAdua did he get 10m as the north began to rally!
In 2015, the north simply rallied almost in. Totality against GEJ. Now 2019, it will be a failed Buhari Versus another hausa fulani. The northern votes will be shared right thru the middle that is why the sudden gimmick of igbo Presidency by2023 is being played to gain hopefully some leverage in the PdP deep zone of SS and SE!

You can bank it, Buhari will be defeated by the same political class that brought him in 2015!

Watch the events after Apc Primaries on June 23rd.

Should as expected saraki leaves Apc, kwara,kogi and sokoto will be out of bbuhari/apc's column. Kwankwaso will reduce significant the buhari's Votes of 2015.

Take the swing states one by one and stop. Your simplistic analysis. Buhari is in a race against time!

senatordave1:
Your not getting it rather.your facts are hearsays and base on happenstance while mine are what happens during elections.yours are theories,mine are clear practicals.
Yaradua won because buhari concentrated in the north alone,pdp was far stronger and obj was determined to rig him in.up till now,inec has never released details of that polls.didnt yaradua also admit to the massive rigging?

Saraki leaving will only affect kwara state which doesnt produce much votes.saying buhari would lose sokoto is like saying gej would lose delta,your a clown,a very annoying one.buhari cant just lose or share votes with another hausa fulani except hes mors popular.buhari's popularity started right from 2001 not now.only kwankwaso comes close distantly.but most of kwankwaso supporters are in kano and are first ly buharists.shekarau defeated him twice but buhari thrashed this same shekarau in the north in 2011.
Dankwambo is popular only in gombe,atiku has no cult following,only close to elites.
Another factor that always plays a big role is the support of governors.buhari is friendly to almost all the governors except wike,dankwambo and fayose.majority of pdp governors are in good terms with him and wont decampaign him.in 2015,most governors were against gej.
All your premises is based on that buhari hasnt performed,most people are angry and the ongoing killings in benue plus political re allignments.this works mostly in developed nations not here.this is nigeria,the stronger politician wins most times not the one with mass support.

tuniski:
Which part of Nigeria do your reside?
You clear don't get it and you Sound like someone new to political culture and voting patterns!
Bye.

tuniski:
You are too myopic. Anyway it okay chatting you ciao!!!!!!!

CyynthiaKiss:
Keep deceiving yourself with epistle.
Come 2019, Buhari will go back in winning North east and North west as usual. Even though, he won't get much support from these two regions like he got in 2015 because they have tested him and they have seen that Buhari has nothing to offer other than hunger and misery. Remember that Southern Kaduna which is in the north west is a no go area for Buhari


Then in north central, Count Benue, Platue and Taraba out. These three places are no go area for Buhari. Then in Kogi state, Yaha bello has given bad name to APC due to his unbearable character
Buhari has only Kwara ( If Saraki does not defect) and Niger state.
Then in SW, our votes are always divided , some of us that voted for Buhari in 2015 voted him because he had Pastor Osibanjo by his side whom we thought will checkmate the excesses of Buhari's dictatorial tendency against Nig Christians. But we have realised that Osibanjo is just a spare tire who does not care about the killing of Nigerian Christians as long as his family members are not involved.
Come 2019, we Christian Yorubas won't vote for someone who is killing our Christian brothers in Benue and other North central statates because after 2019 if Buhari wins (God forbids), he will open the chapter of Southern Christians. Buhari has lost supporters in SW

I don't want to discuss about SE and SS. Those two regions are no go area for Buhari, even those that gave him 5% from those regions are biting their fingers.

senatordave1:
Your the one that is myopic,your very short sighted and blinded by hatred for buhari.i am clearly telling you how elections would pan out while your simply talking of nonsense like saraki leaving apc,apc primaries,a hausa fulani sharing votes with buhari not minding the badic realities.what do you take the northerners for? Why didnt ojukwu divide obj votes in 2003? So if pat utomi or soyinka contest against gej,his votez would be divided abi? Behave please.

tuniski:
You know nothing about nigeria especially the northern demography and voting history.

And you think electoral pattern of LGA has any bearing on InEC elections.

I haven't seen shallowness like this in a long time are you upto 30yrs?

SamuelAnyawu:
My Brother Buhari cannot lose in 2019

meromero11:
You listen to the few Northern elites who have always been against Buhari. Buhari is a Demi god in the core North. A 100% cult followership. It will be absolutely impossible for Buhari to loose in the North. Tinubu has SW on pin down for PMB while SE and SS is being integrated for national spread. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are the only battle ground I see here. Power of incumbency would be brought to prevail.

All these sef no concern me, nah come 2023 for the SE presidency nah im be the main project.

senatordave1:
On a final note inorder to further floor and rubbish tuniski's claim of any northerner dividing buhari's northern votes,let me write a little on all possible northern candidates and compare them to buhari.


ATiKU:the only election he ever won was the 1999 guber poll in adamawa before he became obasanjo's vice.in 2007 polls,he came a distant 3rd behind yaradua and buhari with 2 million votes and couldnt win his own state.he lost in the 2011 pdp primaries to gej and came third in tge apc primaries of 2015.he struggled to control his state poltically and has not been able to install a governor since boni haruna.hes not a grassroot mobilizer or close to the masses,hes elitist and all his friends are elites.he has never done anytging for the masses,all his investments are private/profit oriented and only for the rich.the road to his lga and village are untarred.finally,hes not a fulani but claims to be one for political convenience.his antecedents shows that he cant win his state against buhari talkless of dividing northern votes.

KWANKWASO: hes a hausa fulani born in 1956 from madobi lga.he narrowly won the guber polls in 1999 and lost to an unknown civil servant shekarau who was backed by buhari.in 2007,he couldnt even win the pdp ticket and a buhari backed shekarau was re elected.in 2001 after buhari fell out with shekarau,kwankwaso managed to win sagir takai of anpp by just 60,000 votes.buhari won kano in that year by 1.6 million votes while pdp had 400,000.kwankwaso only added 300,000 votes to give bubu 1.9 million in 2015.his kwankwasiyya movement has heavily been subdued and neutralized by the gandujiyyas backed by buharists.most kwankwassiyas are firat and foremost buharist before supporting rabiu.he can only share kano votes with buhari.

Governor Dankwambo: he was a career civil servant before contesting as governor im 2011.in 2011 and 2015,buhari won gombe state.he was narrowly reelected in 2015 due to disagreements beteen senators bayero nafada and goje of apc.he will not defeat buhari in gombe nor share any northern states.his largely unknown in the north but hes performed well.hes more of a technocrat than a politician.

LAMIDO SULE: upon his influence in jigawa and his vast experience in politics,buhari has always won heavily in jigawa.infact,the candidate of lamido lost to badaru abubakar backed by buhari.him and his sons have cases bordering on sleaze with efcc.hes largely unknown outside jigawa.upon his being in politics beford buhari,hes not loved by the talakawas and almajiris outside jigawa just like kwankwaso.

TAMBUWAL:he was in the house of reps from 2003 before he became governor in 2015.his popularity was only confined to his constituency even after becoming speaker.he owes his political rise to tinubu,wamakko and wike partially.tinubu convinced wamakko to make him governor in 2015 and he rode on the buhari tsuami to win.he owes his allegiance to senator wamakko who can unseat him at any time.going against buhari will rendet him irelevant in sokoto like attahiru bafarawa.he may rather go for a 2nd term.

Kabiru tanimu turaki: born in 1957 in gwandu,kebbi state.he was a minister under gej.he started politics during his university days.hes the first senior advocate from kebbi.he was in anpp where he couldnt secure the guber in 2003 before moving to Acn and finally pdp in 2011.even though he was the deputy director of gej campaign office,he lost his booth ,ward and lga to buhari.hes largely unknown in kebbi and cant even with stand abubakar malami.it would be suicidal going against buhari,it would be a harakiri,a political massacre/rout.

MAKARFI.he managed to become governor in 1999 by deceiving southern kaduna voters.he managed to deliver kaduna to obj in 2003 but he was defeated in 2011 senatorial polls before the election tribunal restored him.he lost heavily in kaduna north in 2015.he was in political wilderness before being made pdp caretaker chairman and has little or no influence in kaduna or even the north.

Shekarau;became governor by virtue of buhari's support in 2003 and 2011.his candidate lost in 2011 to kwankwaso without bubu's support.in 2011 poll,gej even got more votes than him in kano state.he failed to get much votes in other northern states and has being relegated in kano politically.
saraki:he can only win in kwara which doesnt produce much votes,will get sympathy votes due to me melaye in kogi in gombe because of goje and plateau because of lalong and would be thrashed everywhere else including the south.
Ribadu,yerima,shettima,goje:they will all lose even before election day.


The only person that defeated buhari was late yaradua who was popular,had the structure of his late brother to work with,had the total support of obj,was an incumbent and performing governor,was popular among the talakawas.

tuniski:
I am a northerner, a moslem and live in the north. I am currently in zaria and I can tell you for free, buhari is losing voters daily!

tuniski:
You are too far away from reality especially the political dynamics of northern Nigeria. Buhari's base remains the conservative north essentially 12 states of 7 NW,1 NC (Niger state) and 4 NE. The remaining 7 states of plateau,benue,nassarawa,kogi,kwara,taraba and adamawa are PDP states that only took a risk on buhari in 2015.

If you are grounded with happenings in those states, Buhari will be floored again like before come 2019 cos the gamble on him of 2015 has been disastrous!

Again, the 12 states of his traditional strength won't vote sak in 2019 cos the chanji has been a monumental failure. Buhari shoud win the states but with lesser margins!

Even if an unknown northern stands against him on PDP platform such will have better showing than GEJ.

I am a northerner, a moslem and live in the north. I am currently in zaria and I can tell you for free, buhari is losing voters daily!

Stop this your illusion 2019 will be better than 2015 as the integrity of the electoral process is continually being improved.

The electoral reforms were the best legacies of GEJ. Dismiss this and you will cry on 17th February!
If you know you know!

senatordave1:
I never said buhari controls the middle belt,no he doesnt but as an incumbent he will narrowly win there just as he would in the south west.things are not really improving as you think.you seem to forget that the inec chair is related to buhari.votes in buhari strongholds will be inflated heavily.so you think that because buhari had 1.9 million votes in kano and gej had 1.4 million in rivers,it means those numbers truly came out.conduct a resarch and you will find out that all were inflations and vote padding.no state truly had up to a million turnout.read my write up on his possible northern opponents before replying.
Am here in the south were many are expecting pdp to bring a christian or any southerner.another northerner would cause electoral apathy and some opting for buhari rather.

senatordave1:
I never said buhari controls the middle belt,no he doesnt but as an incumbent he will narrowly win there just as he would in the south west.things are not really improving as you think.you seem to forget that the inec chair is related to buhari.votes in buhari strongholds will be inflated heavily.so you think that because buhari had 1.9 million votes in kano and gej had 1.4 million in rivers,it means those numbers truly came out.conduct a resarch and you will find out that all were inflations and vote padding.no state truly had up to a million turnout.read my write up on his possible northern opponents before replying.
Am here in the south were many are expecting pdp to bring a christian or any southerner.another northerner would cause electoral apathy and some opting for buhari rather.

TheKabal:
So, because your a northerner, a muslim, and living in Zaria; we should believe you without facts.

What where the results for the PDP in Kaduna recently?

Sauka lafiya mallam, your own craze no one in town.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/7259477_selection005_png4aeb11ee6f0b5dbaba938d30f1dbf1a1

tuniski:
No genuine. PDP supporter is expecting a southern presidential candidate rather that PDP should reclaim governance!
The middlebelt has always been the neutralizer of Buhari's conservative north till we gambled on buhari in 2015. A state like plateau usually would have almost a million votes for PDP with buhari having 300k below. In 2015, though PDP won, it was with about 100k votes. That will be reverted in 2019, you can bank it.

3 times buhari's conservative north voted massively for buhari thrice he lost! Only when the middlebelt and by extension SW voted him did he win!

2019, middlebelt will vote massively against buhari and SW remains close to call. The June 12 and gimmick of igbo presidency are the desperate moves of buhari to get leverage. They won't work he has now been tested and certified failure!

The apathy in SS and SE of 2015 is now replaced with renewed vigour to oust buhari. By the time the dust settles and candidates emerge, buhari will know the might of the people's resolve not to reinforce failure!
#buhariitoDaura2019 irreversible! The cry of buhari's apologists like you asking for who that candidate will be is practical fear! It doesn't matter the candidate buhari will be floored!!

senatordave1:
You see where you lost the argument again.am on ground here in ph,south south.majority are against buhari bUt a lot lack political literacy.many are mobilizing to vots out buhari for a christian or a southerner like duke not any northerner.any mention of another disinterests them.most voters are still not aware of the geopolitical politics and zoninf of power in nigeria.
Middlebelt always vote against buhari because pdp were in power and had resources to rig and buhari concentrated in the core north alone leaving other areas prone to pdp.he had little or no allies in the middle belt.bur in 2015,he spread his tentacles to the south and middle belt,made more alliances and morw than half of the elites in that zone were for him.
Anywhere buhari loses in the north will be by a margin of not more than 100k votes.buhari will not even allow pdp to lead to lead by more than a million votes in any southern state.if pdp lead plateau by a million,be sure that buhari will have 900,000.it seems your not aware of electoral close marking of votes deflation.
I now know your problem.you think that if one million people vote against buhari,that is what inec would record.you think because a lot are against buhari it automatocally means he will lose.you dont seem to understand the enormous powers of buhari or inec.you havent participated in any elections.you dont also understand the term rigging.

tuniski:
So in PH the majority will now vote buhari cos people like you think Buhari must win abi?

Wake up!
You ain't making sound submissions. Rivers will vote PDP irrespective of the candidate. Buhari can't win with only the conservative northern votes. He needs the middlebelt and SW to vote him massively for him to win. That won't happen cos my midlebelt will vote massively against him.
Banking on rigging is an admittance that buhari has been rejected! Rigging won't work you can bank it!
You shall see in Ekiti and Osun that rigging is no longer fashionabe!

SamuelAnyawu:
Buhari will lose 2019 election?

tuniski:
Which part of Nigeria do your reside?
You clear don't get it and you Sound like someone new to political culture and voting patterns!
Bye.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Same way this ur Samuel Anyanwu is behaving like a snake,is the same way you are behaving like a snake in Nairaland,IMO is on a long thing

SamuelAnyawu:
Truth Hurts bro

HIGHESTPOPORI:
The guy is a BMC,check his posts

Curlieweed:
Madam,

You harsh oh!

However, I am not as optimistic as you are.

Mumuharri is no GEJ, so forget about any truly independent INEC ( apparently led by the Animal’s close relative). His record of misusing the armed forces and police shouldn’t inspire any confidence, either. In summary, it’s more prudent to expect a heavily rigged election.

Even without the rigging, Nigeria has a seemingly inexhaustible supply of mumus. Mumus should be expected to vote for The Mumu-in-Chief.

senatordave1:
Barring any last changes,i foresee buhari winning next year polls massively based on current political indices between now and next year.most of the factors of electoral victory are in his favour.they comprise power of incumbency,funding,support of governors,mass popularity,performance,rigging power,spread of influence,inec support,die hard support base and mobility,media reach,campaign power,support of security forces,structure of political parties,rural penetration,international support,support of elites and businessmen,voting capacity of strongholds etc.most of the aforementioned factors are overwhelmimgly in buhari's favour.lets now look at th votes from each states and zones.

In 2015 polls,buhari had over 7 million votes in the northwest while gej polled over a million.in kano,buhari may get 2.5million votes with or without kwankwaso's support,2 million in katsina,1.5 million in kaduna.Sokoto will deliver 1 million,jigawa 1.5 million,zamfara and kebbi will give 1.5 million together making 10 million votes from the north west which has over 18 million voters.the votes of pdp will be suppressed and deflated,it will not be up to a million votes.
In the north east,buhari will poll 1.3 million in borno,1.7 million in bauchi,700,000 in yobe,600,000 in gombe,400,00 in adamawa and 300,000 in taraba giving him about 5 million out of 11 million voters.pdp will poll 400,000 in taraba,300,000 in adamawa,100,000 in gombe and 300,000 in the remaining states giving them a million vote plus.


In the north central,it will be tight and phyrric.buhari will lose benue and may poll 200,000 while pdp gets 400,000.in niger,buhari will get 1 million votes and pdp 200k.he will get 300,000 in kwara with pdp having 200,000.he will poll 200,000 in kogi with pdp getting same figure.he may get 400,000 in plateau with pdp having 600k.He will get 300,000 in 300,000in nasarawa same as pdp and get 300k in abuja while pdp polls 200k.he will narrowly clinch thd north central by 500,000 votes or pdp may also claim here by same margin.



In ekiti,the margin of victory will be slight like 2015.buhari and pdp will get 200,000.in ondo,apc will get 400,000,pdp 300k.in osun,pdp 200,apc 500k.in oyo,apc 600,pdp 300,000.in ogun,apc,300,000 pdp 200,000.in lagos,i see both parties having 1 million votes each.Apc may be disliked in the west but pdp is hated and isnt an option.pdp is too weak in the southwest to challenge apc.

In the south south buhari knows hes hated and is also pdp stronghold.rivers,akwa ibom and delta has always given pdp the highest votez and these 3 states will be targeted and heavily marked down fo deflate and reducd their figures,a tactics obj used agsinst buhari.rivers will not be allowed to churn out more than a million votes while apc will get 300,000.the rivers legislative polls showed the true voting strength of rivers and both apc and pdp.in delta,pdp will not poll more than 1 million while apc will get 200,000.akwaibom will give pdp 800,000 apc 200,000.in cross river,it will be pdp 300,000 apc 50,000,in bayelsa pdp 300,000 apc 50,000.in edo,both parties will poll 300,000 each.it will be pdp 3.7 million,Apc 1.1 million.


In the south east which is another pdp stronghold,buhari will give pdp close marking here.again,ipob will likely declare a sit at home during the elections which will discourage many from voting.plus,the prospect of apc and pdp presenting two northerners will discourage many.finally,lack of federal might will restrict the rigging power of pdp but votijg will still take place.in imo,pdp will poll 300,000 and apc 25000.in anambra,apga might adopt apc or present a cadidate weakening pdp.pdp will get 200,00,apc 100,000.in abia,pdp wlll poll 350,000 apc,50k.in ebonyi pdp will poll 300,000,apc 10000.in enugu which is pdp strongest base in the east,pdp will poll 450k,apc 50k.


In summary,i foresee and predict that buhari will poll between 22-23 million votes and winning 22 states while pdp will poll between 11-13 million votes reminiscent of 2003 and 2011 polls in the reverse this time.sdp,adc and other parties may also spring a shocker and upstage pdp.up buhari,up apc.

MichaelSokoto:
22-23 million votes indeed!

senatordave1:
I triex