₦airaland Forum

Buhari may not get re-re-elected in 2019. I have just 7 reasons why he woukd lose uf he contests.

1. The Northern Factor:
Since 1999 when Nigeria commenced the current democratic process 3 regimes have been in power. Obj southerners and Christian (1999 - 2097), Musa Yardua - Northern muslim (2007 - 2010), GEJ southerners and Christian (2010 - 2015), PMB Northern muslim (2015 - hopefully 2019). Now, Nigerian politics cannot be divorced from ethnic-religious tendencies. You can argue with your shadows if it pleases you.
Simply put the Southern Christians have held power for 14 years and the Northern muslims only 6 years (assumed PMB competes his 4 years term next year). Now, if PMB is re-elected, then the Northern muslims will be out in 2023. That would mean that while the Southern Christians would have held power for 14 years, the Northern muslims would be 10 years. The Northern oligarchy perceive this as a shortchange hence the best bet is to shove out an aged Buhari for a younger and healthier candidate who can do another 8 years before power returns to the South again.

2. PMB Age and health
This is obviously a course for concern for the North. With the experience from Yardua's demise and long medical vacation Buhari had in 2016 and 2017, many Northern leaders are skeptical in supporting him for another 4 years. They would rather look towards a younger and healthier person from the North than risk another 48 months of uncertainty.

3. Fulani Herdsmen factor
No matter what APC will do between now and February 2019, the perception that Buhari is party to Herdsmen menace cannot be easily whitewashed. The NC will definitely reply with their PVC

4. Gale of defection
No matter how APC wants to pretend, rAPC have destabilised the party in the run up to 2019. This factionalisation will ruin APC in 2019. You can console yourself with whatever. No genuine politician will defect to a party without future, except those running from prosecution by EFCC. In fact, those are not to be trusted even because their main reason for being tgere is to evade the law. Commitment us zero. If you argue check what impact Chime is making in Enugu state.

5. Squandered goodwill and failure
The present APC government is arguably the worst regime since independence. They threw the economy into recession in less than a year of taking power. The economy is still struggling today. All the political leaders who supported them to gain power are now against them. The goodwill the people showered them with have been squandered on the ignoble alter of propaganda and deception. They created the biggest hunger ever experienced in Nigeria that we are now seen as a country of the poorest of the poor. We have been reduced to the same level as war ravaged countries. Having created massive hunger in the land, Buhari and APC have now resorted to vote buying. Not sure how far this will go in 2019.

6. Political with-hunting
Well, I know you will argue this, but history is full of examples of people who become heroes because the power that be hounded them to popularity. This government thinks that by forces of coercion they csn silence opposition, rather, they are emboldening them and making them popular. This will definitely create more enemies for Buhari.

7. Nothing to show for the promised made
Prior to 2015 elections, APC made about 81 promises. Ranging from 3 million jobs, steady power supply, elimination of fuel subsidy, stabilisation of exchange rates, N5000 monthly cash transfer to 25m poor, extermination of Boko Haram in 3 months, post NYSC allowance for 1 year, free meal for all primary school pupils, no more medical tourism, etc. They created an Eldoraldo in the mind of voters. 3.5 years down the line, they are still blaming past regimes and have borrowed trillions with not a single project to show for it.

You can add your own points or fault any of these, but lets be civil and well mannered in our discussion.

God bless Nigeria. Amen!!!

Before 2015 Buhari contested 3 times and lost 3 times.
Those heavyweights that joined Buhari in 2015 have all left him. How can he win?

Presidency always go the direction the middle belt vote

Buhari has lost the middle belt and will lose 2019

No. 5 is the major koko

Amitez:
Buhari may not get re-re-elected in 2019. I have just 7 reasons why he woukd lose uf he contests.

1. The Northern Factor:
Since 1999 when Nigeria commenced the current democratic process 3 regimes have been in power. Obj southerners and Christian (1999 - 2097), Musa Yardua - Northern muslim (2007 - 2010), GEJ southerners and Christian (2010 - 2015), PMB Northern muslim (2015 - hopefully 2019). Now, Nigerian politics cannit be divorced from ethic-religious tendencies. You can argue with your shadows if it pleases you.
Simply put the Southern Christians have help power for 14 years and the Northern muslims only 6 years (assumed PMB competes his 4 years term next year). Now, if PMB is re-elected, then the Northern muslims will be out in 2023. That would mean that while the Southern Christians would have held power for 14 years, the Northern muslims would be 10 years. The Northern oligarchy perceive this as a shortchange hence the best bet is to shove out an aged Buhari fot a younger and healthier candidate who can do another 8 years before power returns to the South again.

2. PMB Age and health
This is obviously a course for concern for the North. With the experience from Yardus's demise and long medical vacation Buhari had in 2016 and 2017, many Northern leaders are sceptical in supporting him for another 4 years. They would rather look towards a younger and healthier person from the North than risk another 48 months of uncertainty.

3. Fulani Herdsmen factor
No matter what APC will do between now and February 2019, the perception that Buhari is party to Herdsmen menace cannit be easily whitewashed. The NC will definitely reply with their PVC

4. Gale of defection
No matter how APC wants to pretend, rAPC have destabilised the party in the run up to 2019. This factionalisation will ruin APC in 2019. You can console yourself with whatever. No genuine politician will defect to a party without future, except those running from prosecution by EFCC. In fact, those are not to be trusted even because their main reason for being tgere is to evade the law. Commitment us zero. If you argue check what impact Chime is making in Enugu state.

5. Squandered goodwill and failure
The present APC government is arguably the worst regime sincr independence. They through economy into recession in less than a year of taking power. The economy is still struggling today. All the political leaders who supported them to gain power are niw against them. The goodwill the people showered them with have been squandered on the ignoble alter of propaganda and deception. They created the biggest hunger ever experienced in Nigeria that we are now seen as a country of the poorest if the poor. We have been reduced to the same level as war ravaged countries. Having created massive hunger in the land, Buhari and APC have now resorted to vote buying. Not sute how far this will go in 2019.

6. Political with-hunting
Well, I know you will argue this, but history is full of examples of people who become heroes because the power that be hounded them to popularity. This government thinks that by forces of coercion they csn silence opposition, rather, they are emboldening them and making them popular. This will definitely create more enemies fir Buhari.

7. Nothing to show for the promised made
Prior to 2015 ekections, APC made about 81 promises. Ranging from 3 million jobs, steady power supply, elimination of fuel subsidy, stabilisation of exchange rates, N5000 monthly cash transfer to 25m poor, extermination of Boko Haram in 3 months, post NYSC allowance for 1 year, free meal for all primary school pupils, no more medical tourism, etc. They created an Eldoraldo in the mind of voters. 3.5 years down the line, they are still blaming past regimes and have borrowed trillions with not a single project to show for it.

You can add your own points or fault any of these, but lets be civil and well mannered in our discussion.

God bless Nigeria. Amen!!!

Op you deserve a dirty slap from SARS.

We are ready to even allow the North do 12 years straight as long as Buhari leaves that seat for a more sensible and fairer northerner

5. Squandered goodwill and failure

The present APC government is arguably the worst regime since independence. They through economy into recession in less than a year of taking power. The economy is still struggling today

yazach:
Op you deserve a dirty slap from SARS.

Wetin I do? Truth is better eeeh!

You are just disturbing yourself. Buhari wil still win

nnofaith:
You are just disturbing yourself. Buhari wil still win

..do not mind him
They said more than this in 2014
Sai baba till 2023