QuotaSystem:


You're right.

Honestly the ignorance and clueless state of some in the south regarding political realities in the north is just mind-blowing

southwest is not apc strong hold in any way unless you're relyng on nairaland propaganda..
both parties will split the votes almost equally.

ozento:
atiku will stil win weda u like it or not.

For sure, Atiku will win Adamawa state.

Shuku0kukobambi:


I'm afraid you're being too optimistic. This is Nigeria and it's real. In fact, even in USA, the 'mistake' of an Obama presidency will never happen again. Why do you think Trump in spite of all still retains the maximum support of evangelical Christians?

Most Igbos want the VP ticket of the PDP and they've earned it

Egbon visit the facebook post.
This isn't just about Igbos but Naija if PMB had been good enough who will complain
You guys keep shouting Igbos haven't recovered from GEJ's loss not knowing that most Igbos knew GEJ messed up and want him replaced but was scared of PMB cos he is an extremist.
PMB is president doesn't make all Hausas richer than me.
Lagos is Yorubas ancestral home, governed and everything Yoruba doesn't diminish my uncle owning a business and having 12 Offin, Isale Eko indigenes working for him.
Everyone just needs good life, even Naija Christians won't mind migrating to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Dubai or even Libya where life is betted

QuotaSystem:


Unfortunately you failed to discount for the electoral strength of the regions. SE & SS combined are just 15 million voters strong (assuming 100% turnout).

Even with the 60% victory you've accorded to Buhari in the NW, that's 11 million votes already from the North west alone which has neutralized the entire votes of the SE (7 million) and over half of the SS votes which are Atiku's only strongholds. Remember that with Oshiomole, Amaechi, Akpabio et al the SS will be shared with President Buhari.

With a SE VP, just forget the southwest as Atiku will struggle to get 25% in most of the SW States which adds another possible 10 million votes to Buhari's kitty.

For the reasons I stated, PMB will also sweep the NE but I don't expect a fact-lacking person to agree. In fact, we haven't even accounted for federal might and the extra million votes PMB will get in Boko haram freed regions where people couldn't vote in 2015 due to PDP's corruption and incompetence in battling the insurgency .

The only states where votes will be significantly shared are the 4 states in the NC already mentioned. Clear victory for PMB to the discerning.

2019 is pregnant .

OMG!
@atiku will struggle to get 25 percent across southwest..
you are a zombie who should not be taking serious..
lol.. Atiku will get a minimum of 49 percent across SW and a maximum of 50 percent here..
both apc/pdp are so strong in SW..
you are really deluded. sitting in your village in jigawa qnd spouting baseless shi...
oh, you are being carried away by nairaland Yoruba zombies..lol..
come down to SW yourself, your delusion that Atiku can not get 25 percent in sw will quickly be cured.
I'm from osun state, I can tell u authoritatively that APC will loose in osun in the presidency.

Cherez:

Egbon visit the facebook post.
This isn't just about Igbos but Naija if PMB had been good enough who will complain
You guys keep shouting Igbos haven't recovered from GEJ's loss not knowing that most Igbos knew GEJ messed up and want him replaced but was scared of PMB cos he is an extremist.
PMB is president doesn't make all Hausas richer than me.
Lagos is Yorubas ancestral home, governed and everything Yoruba doesn't diminish my uncle owning a business and having 12 Offin, Isale Eko indigenes working for him.
Everyone just needs good life, even Naija Christians won't mind migrating to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Dubai or even Libya where life is betted

It's obvious you are a man of high intellect and i salute your reasoning but i still insist you're being too optimistic.

How many Nigerians do you assume think like you? Anyway, you've made your points forcefully and soundly.

Atiku's choice within the week will answer some of our queries

otuekong1:
I Love Your Write~up but its one sided,you should take note that these following factors will play against pmb in d core north 1) dasuki issue ,2]shiites issue 3}d economy of d core north 4] he is contesting against a fellow northern fulani muslim.

Then you don't know the north. Nobody cares about Dasuki in the north, some are even happy because he is under detention. The hate the north have for shites is a concentrated one. You talk of economy I will agree to that. But religion? Buhari is considered by the majority as God fearing than Atiku

PassingShot:
SE - Atiku 70% PMB 30% SS - Atiku 65% PMB 35% NW - Atiku 30% PMB 70% NE - Atiku 35% PMB 65% NC Atiku 55% - PMB - 45% SW Atiku 40% PMB - 60%
It promises to be tough for both but I see PMB edging it.
Watch out for my analysis on it in due course.

Buhari will not get up to 60% in southwest and you know the truth yourself.. how can people be making useless assumptions, is it not the same SW i am?

Self deception all your allusion is true before Buhari performance was put to test. Immediately Atiku won.my northern PDP Facebook follower was divided into three one Buhari die hard, Artikulated mass and those sitting on the fence.

It is now open to everybody that Buhari lack the capacity to lead and he does not have the health

Sap0:

Buhari will not get up to 60% in southwest and you know the truth yourself..
how can people be making useless assumptions, is it not the same SW i am?

I guess you're the only one living in the SW.

Kids everywhere!

Baseless thrash, Shagari won the presidential election with a SE VP. Trying to goad Atiku to dump the East and pick a yorubas who will never vote him and then he fails is a trick that even a kid in kindergaten can see through.

Dead analysis.

Mohayaks:
someone said that the votes in the north will be splitted 50:50

For more jokes text PDP to 419

ModsareChevres:


Wake up bro.

Atiku is clearing the middle belt including his home state Adamawa and Taraba.
That leaves Buhari with 11 core northern states which Atiku will still tightly contest with him.

All the same, Atiku needs a SW VP win the SW.

Nope he doesn't, if he picks SW, he'll lose SESS region. He can't pick 1/3 over 2/3. SW will always share their votes regardless, they can't be relied on.

Sirjamo:
Whoever think that SW would vote for Atiku, and abandon its 2023 ambition after labouring so hard to bring Buhari to power is obviously sick.

you're deluded and sick...
how popular is osinbajo even among his own ijebu people, if he contests among the ijebus today, Buruji kashamu will beat him black and blue.. talk less of general popularity among all the Yorubas...
nobody worship Osinbajo in SW, and as far as most people are concerned in this region, they are indifferent about him..
Osinbajo na food abi

Buhari's win is a lost for Nigeria.

No country is governed by someone as starkly illiterate as Buhari on the dynamics of Socio-Political/GeoPolitical and Socio-Economic Dynamics of Sovereign Nations. We have the worst President since Adam impregnated Eve.

And I have nothing against him personally, because a man can only operate to the limit of his understanding, and his understanding of Democratic Economy is very limited so he can not engineer a positive change of a mass of people who are totally mal-educated, indoctrinated and abused both physically, religiously and spiritually. Buhari has reached his glass ceiling, which actually was too low for a basic Graduate with a BSc. Nigeria's problems can not be solved with limited knowledge gained by basic graduates yet he is worst educated. A celebral illiterate with egocentric knowledge derived from Islam is a time-bomb and I have a copy of the Koran, as well as the Bible. I love both religious the way the cat loves the mouse.

Nigeria needs at least a mind who understands the Operabilities of AIs, Vulnerabilities of MK Ultra with Access to Public Keys of Diabolicals of Religious Spiritualism in order to cross the bridge and meet up the UN Millennium Goals which was set forth as Checklist towards the One World Government as promoted as the New World Order.

A vote for Buhari is an insult to sanity and humanity. We must begin to ask ourselves where Humanity is heading to, technologically and otherwise and choose a better candidate who will galvanize growth in that direction.

Buhari is not that man, and even Atiku is not that man, but with Atiku, we can begin to make progress towards a new kind of leadership. He is the only force that can upset this present system where the 'ignorant unemployables' are lording over the intellectual entrepreneurs.

Who ever wins, Water remains my best drink.

QuotaSystem:


My friend this is not an arena for your igbo superiority delusions.

Your assertions are totally baseless. Next.

The truth pain this zombierudeen sha.

IbrahimDamola:


Nope he doesn't, if he picks SW, he'll lose SESS region. He can't pick 1/3 over 2/3. SW will always share their votes regardless, they can't be relied on.

VP or no VP, SE stand to lose a lot and gain nothing if they don't support Atiku and Buhari wins in 2019.

PassingShot:

I guess you're the only one living in the SW.

Kids everywhere!

arindin eniyan..
history has shown SW will never give block votes no matter your popularity.. Osun and Ekiti are recent examples and that will play up again in the presidential election.
Buhari is not getting 60% percent and you know it yourself, at the height of the Buhari fever in 2014 when pdp reputation was in total shambles, Apc could only beat pdp by really a small margin less than 600k in all the states combined, talk more of now when pmb has proven to be a lifeless president.
of course, you're a paid internet zombie and you have to justify your pay.
how old are you?
it takes a kid to know another kid.
when bmcs can't counter you, they resort to abuses.

In a nutshell Atiku is more acceptable across the lenght and breadth of the country than the lifeless bigot called Booharri the malu.

Buhari is too sectional, ethnocentrist, bigotted, and clannish. He knows it, and everyone knows it.

Where Buhari is loved (north), Atiku is also loved.

Where Buhari is not accepted (SESS aka better south), Atiku is very much accepted.

Next time when nigerians want a pan-nigeria president instead of a divisive bigot, they won't choose a known extremist and nepotistic tribal bigot killer like buhari the Ayatollah of daura.

Atiku is pan-nigeria, booharri is just pan-boko haram.

majority of those commenting on these thread have no feeler and understanding whatsoever regarding the political mindset of an average core northerner , most of these political analyst perceptions and opinions are base on emotional tendencies, ignorance and hatred for Buhari, rather than any logical and rational disposition

its baffling and perplexing when I see a southerner that has never stepped out of enugu state, arguing and analysing political nature and mentality in the core north, the audacity and confidence!! these are kind of people you can't debate with, because they are full of emotions and ignorance..its only an nyamuri that will fabricate a lie, convince himself and then feel good about it

it's only nyamuri flat.head on this forum that will claim political awareness in your state more than you

Buhari is like a demi-God in core north, his name has been embedded and ingrained within us since birth, I doubt if even Othman dan fodio has as much followers as he does

North West 18m votes
Buhari will most definitely clear the whole state of NW, and with over 18m votes, he will get nothing less than 70%..taking care of whatever votes Atiku will get from SS/SE even in the likelihood of ATIKU getting 100% votes

North East 10m votes
the only state I don't see buhari winning here is Taraba, but he will get a margin of 60% votes here

North Central 7m votes
Buhari will probably win atiku in kogi, Niger and kawarra..whatever the scenario is, he will get 50%

ModsareChevres:


VP or no VP, SE stand to lose a lot and gain nothing if they don't support Atiku and Buhari wins in 2019.

They are too republican to think like that. They believe in getting appreciated for their effort. They kept the party afloat while yorubas laboured to destroy it. A SW VP, will be an insult to Eastern nigeria.

SW are already very much accomodated in PDP even though they've derided the party for too long. They have the post of Deputy Nat. Secretary, National treasurer, and DG campaign of PDP. That's more than enough compensation for a SW region that kicked out PDP out of its region.

Monkey cannot work for baboon to simply come and chop. E no go happen. The VP is going East. No emotions just facts.

Awol1:
You are telling me Atiku will loose in Adamawa as well?

Are You OK?

Dont mind d OP,he is expressing fear.Lagos is d only state in SW with large votes and half of d population r nt SW people.In d event of credible election APC will lose.Already u can see what transpired in Ekiti and Osun,votes buying.This time around Atiku will contend favorably.SWHas large votes but in actual sense these votes r fought for.Last election,GEJ fought PMB side by side with slight margin of defeate frm APC even though rigging and votes buying, and PVC belonging to non SW ppl were hijacked by Tinubu and his men.This time around it will nt be so.Kwara will go for Atiku.The core North mentioned by d OP is only Kano,Jigawa,Zamfara which will be a battle ground. Amana is a deception,d masses in d north r hungry and controlled by d elites. When If nt for Atiku,Saraki in 2015,PMB would still be contesting election by now.

FriendNG:


Then you don't know the north. Nobody cares about Dasuki in the north, some are even happy because he is under detention. The hate the north have for shites is a concentrated one. You talk of economy I will agree to that. But religion? Buhari is considered by the majority as God fearing than Atiku

Bro I Stay In D North, D Average Core Northerners Are Suffering and d aides of pmb are doing a bad job

IbrahimDamola:


They are too republican to think like that. They believe in getting appreciated for their effort. They kept the party afloat while yorubas laboured to destroy it. A SW VP, will be an insult to Eastern nigeria.

SW are already very much accomodated in PDP even though they've derided the party for too long. They have the post of Deputy Nat. Secretary, National treasurer, and DG campaign of PDP. That's more than enough compensation for a SW region that kicked out PDP out of its region.

Monkey cannot work for baboon to simply come and chop. E no go happen. The VP is going East. No emotions just facts.

What is the essence of appreciation that ends at the polls and in a loss

Wike, Fayose, FFK and co sustained PDP while SE PDP politicians were revamping to APC left right centre.

Had Saraki and co not joined PDP, it would have been dead by now.

As it stands, SW has no stake in PDP. The VP slot will give us the confidence to ditch Osinbajo.

Have you guys gotten tired of 'Buhari till 2023, Igbo presidency' already

POP's showing in Osun shows Yorubas are tired of APC.

otuekong1:
Bro I Stay In D North, D Average Core Northerners Are Suffering and d aides of pmb are doing a bad job

If you really stayed in the north you won't be talking of Dasuki or Shites being a threat to Buhari reelection or you just want to be biased. 90% of Shites don't even vote because of their ideology. Economy I agree with you.

Talking on religion I disagree with you because the average northerner still consider Buhari more upright than Atiku

Sap0:

OMG!
@atiku will struggle to get 25 percent across southwest..
you are a zombie who should not be taking serious..
lol.. Atiku will get a minimum of 49 percent across SW and a maximum of 50 percent here..
both apc/pdp are so strong in SW..
you are really deluded. sitting in your village in jigawa qnd spouting baseless shi...
oh, you are being carried away by nairaland Yoruba zombies..lol..
come down to SW yourself, your delusion that Atiku can not get 25 percent in sw will quickly be cured.
I'm from osun state, I can tell u authoritatively that APC will loose in osun in the presidency.

Sap0:

southwest is not apc strong hold in any way unless you're relyng on nairaland propaganda..
both parties will split the votes almost equally.

The SW people kicked out PDP in Ondo, rejected them in Ekiti, they lost Osun. Stop drooling like a moro.n and mention a single state in the SW where the APC is not in power, otherwise keep shut and fall back in line while you learn some manners.

ModsareChevres:


What is the essence of appreciation that ends at the polls and in a loss

Wike, Fayose, FFK and co sustained PDP while SE PDP politicians were revamping to APC left right centre.

Had Saraki and co not joined PDP, it would have been dead by now.

As it stands, SW has no stake in PDP. The VP slot will give us the confidence to ditch Osinbajo.

Have you guys gotten tired of 'Buhari till 2023, Igbo presidency' already

POP's showing in Osun shows Yorubas are tired of APC.

You took your bath in river osun, you cannot expect to pick your towel in river niger.

The PDP have done everything to accomdate the SW but the SW schemed out itself from the PDP. Everybody is aware of that.
During GEJ era, PDP as the ruling party presented mulikat Adeola from Oyo to take over the Speakership position which was rightful theirs, but tinubu the power monopolist became threatened and ordered yoruba politicians who were mainly of the opposition to vote against the PDP yoruba speakership and for tambuwal north voted their own and tambuwal emerged speaker. Tinubu and Tambuwal were congratulated for selling yorubas stake in PDP. Yorubas effectively displeased themselves to please tinubu the power monopolist and PDP were ridiculed. The records are there.

PDP have done enough for yorubas but yorubas want it dead, giving them the SW ticket is like loading a machine gun and giving it to your enemy. It will be fatal.

Once VP is zoned to SW, the yorubas will mock SE and SS, cause disenchantment in the East, and vote apathy which will make Atiku lose Eastern support even when we all know SW won't give him bloc votes.


His best bet is to choose an Eastern VP, consolidate in the SESS region, in the SW he will do well because of the population of non-indigenes their and some yorubas who genuinely want Booharri out for destroying the economy.

On the baseline, Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Ngozi, will score at least 40% in SW, due to non-indigenes and those yorubas who are tired of Booharri's fake change.

QuotaSystem:




The SW people kicked out PDP in Ondo, rejected them in Ekiti, they lost Osun. Stop drooling like a moro.n and mention a single state in the SW where the APC is not in power, otherwise keep shut and fall back in line while you learn some manners.

you're the drooling mor.on here.. spouting Bs from your jigawa village.
you call that charade in osun a winning?
oponu aboki,
southwest even if you're popular than angel Gabriel can and will never give anyone a block vote of 60/70% ..
it's not just possible.
Both apc/pdp will contest every votes here keenly and the winner in SW like 2014 will only be by a really tiny margin.

IbrahimDamola:


You took your bath in river osun, you cannot expect to pick your towel in river niger.

The PDP have done everything to accomdate the SW but the SW schemed out itself from the PDP. Everybody is aware of that.
During GEJ era, PDP as the ruling party presented mulikat Adeola from Oyo to take over the Speakership position which was rightful theirs, but tinubu the power monopolist became threatened and ordered yoruba politicians who were mainly of the opposition to vote against the PDP yoruba speakership and for tambuwal north voted their own and tambuwal emerged speaker. Tinubu and Tambuwal were congratulated for selling yorubas stake in PDP. Yorubas effectively displeased themselves to please tinubu the power monopolist and PDP were ridiculed. The records are there.

PDP have done enough for yorubas but yorubas want it dead, giving them the SW ticket is like loading a machine gun and giving it to your enemy. It will be fatal.

Once VP is zoned to SW, the yorubas will mock SE and SS, cause disenchantment in the East, and vote apathy which will make Atiku lose Eastern support even when we all know SW won't give him bloc votes.


His best bet is to choose an Eastern VP, consolidate in the SESS region, in the SW he will do well because of the population of non-indigenes their and some yorubas who genuinely want Booharri out for destroying the economy.

On the baseline, Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Ngozi, will score at least 40% in SW, due to non-indigenes and those yorubas who are tired of Booharri's fake change.

Stop lumping the SE with the SS.
Most southerners supported Tambuwal to be speaker just as they supported Dogara.

If Atiku can win 40% of SW votes without a SW VP, don't you think he will do even better with one

What will Igbos gain/lose if Atiku loses Nothing!

Compare it with what Yorubas will lose if Buhari loses and we have no representation on the PDP ticket.

QuotaSystem:
To put it plainly, apart from Taraba, Benue, Plateau & Nassarawa States, President Muhammadu Buhari is poised to sweep the votes of the remaining 15 northern states, for the following reasons:

1. The "Amana" factor.

A lot of southerners often wonder the basis of the cult-like following PMB commands in the North - the reason is not far fetched.

The Hausa-fulani people in particular, place a huge value on the concept of "Amana" (trust/to hold in trust), a value which Buhari's track record of integrity (whether disputed or not) is clearly aligned with. Despite media propaganda, most of these people who are more politically informed than their average southern counterparts, are aware that not a single charge of corruption has stuck on their revered PMB, amidst corruption allegations among his cronies. Atiku loses massively in this respect because of his track record of corruption (BPE, Haliburton, $16b power scam, unexplained source of wealth etc.) which presents him as an untrustworthy leader to most northerners.

Furthermore, PMB's seemingly north-centric agenda regarding appointments, infrastructure projects (roads, rails, ports) and focus on agriculture assures most northerners that their interests would be well protected under his administration, in contrast to Atiku who is perceived to be likely to make concessions and appeasements to the East whose support he is mostly riding on going by recent trends. Atiku also loses big in this regard.

2. The South Eastern VP Factor

If Atiku gives in to the clamor for his running mate to emerge from the East, then he stands to lose massive votes from the core north for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the deep political antagonism and anti-north stance from Igbos, which has characterized the national space and been amplified since the defeat of Jonathan and rise of IPOB/Nnamdi Kanu and their hate speech, will deeply hurt Atiku's chances because not only will it mean the North would be taking the extreme bigotry, insults and political antagonism from the East right on the chin with no consequences, it would also mean the possibility of an Igbo successor to Atiku - a people known for their contempt for Nigeria's unity and secessionist aspirations.

In addition, a SE VP will also cost Atiku significant SW votes - a sub-region with the second largest number of registered voters (14 million).

3. The Boko Haram Factor

In sharp contrast to the generally held notion among some in the south that Atiku would sweep the NE because it's his home region, the strides recorded by PMB in the fight against Boko Haram heavily neutralizes that effect. I am not talking about social media noise, but the perceptions of people directly affected by Boko Haram activities and are experiencing a gradual return to normalcy since PMB took office.

Yola (Adamawa) for example, Atiku's own home capital, has experienced peace since PMB's onslaught on BH like they never saw since Boko Haram emerged under the past PDP administration - this was formerly a ghost town that used to suffer deadly BH attacks daily with dusk-till-dawn curfews, which has since been lifted and attacks reduced to suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, which are reducing on a monthly basis. This was a state that had several LGA's under Boko Haram's rule during PDP's administration and the people aren't quick to forget the corruption that marred the fight against BH in Dasuki fashion.

Maiduguri is back to it's bustling state with dozens of NGO's providing humanitarian services to help with the ongoing rebuilding efforts, people are now free to watch El-Kanem FC matches in the township stadium, and trans-border economic trade (mostly fish) is gradually being restored. The return of the Chibok and Dapchi girls also adds points to PMB's profile in the sub-region. If by God's grace the FG is able to secure the release of Leah Sharibu then that would be a hat-trick. I personally spoke to a "Kube" (traditional hausa cap) dealer from Borno recently and these were the exact sentiments he expressed as he professed support for Buhari's candidacy.

Final Note

It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S

This is a very pragmatic and massive post you've contributed, QuotaSystem; well done.

[BTW, I give it up to you... you're a darn good writer.]

Regards.

........
P34c3
.....
...

IbrahimDamola:


You took your bath in river osun, you cannot expect to pick your towel in river niger.

The PDP have done everything to accomdate the SW but the SW schemed out itself from the PDP. Everybody is aware of that.
During GEJ era, PDP as the ruling party presented mulikat Adeola from Oyo to take over the Speakership position which was rightful theirs, but tinubu the power monopolist became threatened and ordered yoruba politicians who were mainly of the opposition to vote against the PDP yoruba speakership and for tambuwal north voted their own and tambuwal emerged speaker. Tinubu and Tambuwal were congratulated for selling yorubas stake in PDP. Yorubas effectively displeased themselves to please tinubu the power monopolist and PDP were ridiculed. The records are there.

PDP have done enough for yorubas but yorubas want it dead, giving them the SW ticket is like loading a machine gun and giving it to your enemy. It will be fatal.

Once VP is zoned to SW, the yorubas will mock SE and SS, cause disenchantment in the East, and vote apathy which will make Atiku lose Eastern support even when we all know SW won't give him bloc votes.


His best bet is to choose an Eastern VP, consolidate in the SESS region, in the SW he will do well because of the population of non-indigenes their and some yorubas who genuinely want Booharri out for destroying the economy.

On the baseline, Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Ngozi, will score at least 40% in SW, due to non-indigenes and those yorubas who are tired of Booharri's fake change.

no matter who emerge the VP.. it will hardly change anything in the SW.. people who will vote pdp will do so here no matter who the VP is...
Yorubas no carry all those tribal stuff for head in elections, otherwise 90% of us in Yoruba land will be voting for one party, if u check our voting pattern, you will quickly see votes are usually well spread.
However you igbos mocking Yorubas,making unnecessary enemies for Atiku already is a problem.
The aim is to send the lifeless one away.

alhassanyusuf29:
majority of those commenting on these thread have no feeler and understanding whatsoever regarding the political mindset of an average core northerner , most of these political analyst perceptions and opinions are base on emotional tendencies, ignorance and hatred for Buhari, rather than any logical and rational disposition

its baffling and perplexing when I see a southerner that has never stepped out of enugu state, arguing and analysing political nature and mentality in the core north, the audacity and confidence!! these are kind of people you can't debate with, because they are full of emotions and ignorance..its only an nyamuri that will fabricate a lie, convince himself and then feel good about it

it's only nyamuri flat.head on this forum that will claim political awareness in your state more than you

Buhari is like a demi-God in core north, his name has been embedded and ingrained within us since birth, I doubt if even Othman dan fodio has as much followers as he does

North West 18m votes
Buhari will most definitely clear the whole state of NW, and with over 18m votes, he will get nothing less than 70%..taking care of whatever votes Atiku will get from SS/SE even in the likelihood of ATIKU getting 100% votes

North East 10m votes
the only state I don't see buhari winning here is Taraba, but he will get a margin of 60% votes here

North Central 7m votes
Buhari will probably win atiku in kogi, Niger and kawarra..whatever the scenario is, he will get 50%

Igbos know the north more than most Northerners

ModsareChevres:


Stop lumping the SE with the SS.
Most southerners supported Tambuwal to be speaker just as they supported Dogara.

If Atiku can win 40% of SW votes without a SW VP, don't you think he will do even better with one

What will Igbos gain/lose if Atiku loses Nothing!

Compare it with what Yorubas will lose if Buhari loses and we have no representation on the PDP ticket.

Facts are stubborn, this is not emotional. The Eastern region have always voted as one, so I'll lump them. If there is discontent anywhere in Aba, it will reverberate in PH which is 20 mins way. If there is discontent in onitsha it will reverberate in Asaba which is 5 minutes away.

The VP have to be from the Eastern bloc so he consolidate on the 2 out of 3 southern region and then share votes in the SW and keep his battle in the north. A SW vp will threaten his support in the better south and yet yorubas will play the spoiler for him as they have not been reliable in voting pattern since 1999. He can't take that gamble.