₦airaland Forum

Tolahinges:
You mean the crowd that is currently being imported from Unilorin and Kwasu for the token of 2k per head. We know your way.

TonyeBarcanista:
You de see arrival you de shout crowd. Wait make event start una go begin say na Congo we import them

myboy2111:
“You can imagine that a party that was in power for 16 years with a candidate that was vice-president for eight years are unable to point to concrete projects or achievements to convince the electorate with. If after previously holding office for 16 years, all PDP can do is to make more promises of what it will do if elected instead of showing what it has done to be re-elected, then there is something capitally wrong with the party and its candidate"-Areas Youths

quickberry2:


See crowd!!!!

Awon weyrey

quickberry2:
Have you been to Kwara state before?

Any crowd you see there today are there because of the token they will receive from Atiku.

jpphilips:
Wasn't for you bro!! minimum IQ requirement to digest that piece is 100 not 5.

jpphilips:

IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES?

A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance?
Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered.

Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock
it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth.

What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies?

Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession.

Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession.

Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford.
In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation.

Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency.

Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate.
The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy.
Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages.

Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html
If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship?

Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone?
The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves,
It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings).

Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS.
This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings.

Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team.


Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings?

Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself

Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg
They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's
Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago.



Borrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/

Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016.
https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate


Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday.
Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously.

Poverty in Angola
According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million.

I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $194b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock.

Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014.

Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014.

My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free!

Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016

Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why;
We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock.

If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices,
read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years

So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels.

Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow?


The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model)

The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018.
This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt.

Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country.

By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently.
This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy.

Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model)
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/

As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own


https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/


We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery.


In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity.

Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything.

We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place.
leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished?

Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners?

Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time.

Fraudulent Leadership that wants to sell 90% of NNPC robbing us of 74% of our forex needs, Leadership that wants to spend $90b annually building infrastructures when Nigeria earns less than $30b annually.

It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works.

In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest.

Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once
bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies?
When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US.

May God help us!!

Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis

https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264

jpphilips:
What you forgot is that we lived through Atiku's privatization, money laundering & bribery incompetence for 8yrs, perhaps you hadn't pubic hairs then. Atiku running against Buhari is like a prostitute gang rap3d by 3 horses. You know that feeling right?
Buhari as a private contestant was deadly enough let alone with power of incumbency and heart of charity for the poor!! Atiku's defeat will not even make headlines it will be so easy that Nigerians will forget the contest in a week.
Only the IPOB & Jubril Kanu gang will continue their noise afterwards, Buhari and Atiku are not popularity mates, one is a god, the other is a mere mortal!!

seunlly:
Ode!!
What you wrote was crap, so why would I waste my time reading it.
Some with an IQ of 100 wouldn't waste his IQ on reading crap on politics, he will be using it to change the world. That is what I am doing kid!

Yyeske:
Step up kid, the 'crap' he wrote wasn't meant for kids of your IQ level, why not just read and pass

modath:
Were alaso ponbele

Walehelt:
stfu, I was there,

TonyeBarcanista:
Why are you bringing ethnic coloration into the mix?

Meanwhile, it is Buhari Vs Nigerians (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Makarfi, ordinary man etc) and we are determined.

You can't ask what a VP did for Adamawa as VP, however, the government he served achieved a billion of what Buhari can never achieve even if given 100 years.

Since you have admitted he not only failed Nigerians with his infamous privatization heist, you agree completely he failed Adamawa his home state, so who are these "WE" you refer to?
The guys that want to buy 90% of NNPC when Atiku sells it? please show seriousness young man, Atiku has no geopolitical block to call his own, it is one thing to share 2k in all universities for a political rally, it is another to have people that will make sacrifice, leave their comfort zone to vote you in, in the Buhari team since 2003, I learnt a pattern, they are strong, they defend buhari with their blood, they make sacrifices for him, once buhari gets a chance to power, he remembers them immediately, here is a typical example, Buhari started PINE even before he decimated Shekau's Boko haram, that will give you an idea what Atiku is dealing with.

You cant compare such a godlike figure to a reprobate like Atiku that has never rem. his Adamawa for a day, make no mistakes about this fact, or do you expect SW to vote an Obi when an Osibanjo is on the ticket?
PDP miscalculated that the hunger in the land baseless lies will brighten their chances, what they do not know is that an elite like me does not need buhari to tell me the hunger is not his fault because I have all my parameters to arrive at a logical conclusion, again, they banked on the illiterates to consolidate their lies, but from the pedigree of buhari, I can tell you that the day Buhari stands in person in the north and opens his mouth to say "Its PDP's fault" that day, the SAI baba ring tone will return, lastly, the average poor northerner, does not even believe that an Atiku will remove the hunger because Atiku hasn't the pedigree, he has never remembered them, with buhari, they have hope. They can trust a man that reintroduced school feeding program more than a man that flies over their heads with promises. Buhari carries the Aura of a god in the north, his word is law, one word on that campaign podium, this buhari brought hunger nonsense will end.

Atiku will be dealt a severe blow that he will shout, "is this me"? forget all those igbo noise makers on social media deceiving Atiku, in their geopolitical zone, Jubril Kanu control the people more than Atiku, most of them are not even registered in their home states, some are abroad making noise, why do you think they are saying buhari is a double?
They want to sow doubt on his godlike figure, next will be to shout rigging, they dont really get it, do they? I have met with Buharists as much as I have met Atikulators, the determination of buharists is scary, determination brings success, forget it, Atiku doesn't stand a chance against buhari, If were Atiku, i would've contested against osibanjo or Fashola definitely not buhari, that was a mistake, only an over fed bird will challenge his god to a duel.

BuhariCow:
Gathering of failures.
Seems they havent learnt from the Bye election. The op must be a clown to say Kwara is PDP

san316:
But the supporters are supposed to be eagerly waiting or them at the venue now. Na them go enter venue before supporters

TonyeBarcanista:
Let's get Nigeria working again

godox2:
Was Nigeria working before？ If after 16good bumper harvest years of PDP Nigeria did not work, how will you expect Nigeria to work very well during APCs 3years of little resource and recession？ T are you also atikulating with those only intrested with our yam？Pls you should know better by now. I know APC perform below expectation, but 3 years is not good enough to compare with 16 years, at least lets give them half ie 8 years

TonyeBarcanista:
Greatest Atikulated Nigeria

TonyeBarcanista:
Bros make Buhari go house first so we cab restart Nigeria again

quickberry2:
Paid urchin.....go and eat your banana

Walehelt:
no wonder people called your lots zombie, how much can they pay me?

docadams:
Just tuned to AIT now. There is quiet a motley crowd enveloped by an eerie feeling. Melaye the MC bursting his vocal cord trying hard to make the crowd repeat a derogatory comment he made against APC. But the crow aren't bulging. Even attempts to make the crowd spell S.A.R.A.K.I fell flat.
In summary, a lifeless show.

quickberry2:
Google is a friend.....o se enu bi ape tuwo..oya, gerarahia mehnnnnn!!!!!

jpphilips:
Is dis a presidential rally or a sec. school inter house sports competition? can't you see that Nigerians have rejected those who squandered our reserves so bad dat dollar scarcity wanted to kill us in 2015? buhari has saved $42b, scarcity stopped, u want to come bak? pity us naa!! na beg we dey beg,
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