Financial Digest projects a close presidential contest, perhaps the closest in the history of Nigeria, come February 16, 2019, between the major political parties, APC and PDP.

The ethnic origin of the vice presidential candidates will play a major role, especially in the South East, which research also indicated to be the most motivated in terms of increase in turnout on election day, when compared to 2015

The incumbent president, Buhari is expected to hold on to his strong hold but in a dilapidated fashion, with Atiku chopping of some of his domineering votes in the core north and North Central. The South West is projected in favor of Buhari. Professor Osinbajo and Tinubu factors , remain strong in this region. Amosun’s effort and very aggressive campaign are also major contributors in ogun state, for the presidency. We project that the crisis in Ogun would affect the outcome of only the gubernatorial and not the presidential election.

The South West voting pattern is largely affected by the cosmopolitan nature of Lagos, which constitutes about 41% of the region’s voting population and this is a major diluter of what otherwise could have given APC block votes in the region.

We consider the south-south 58% voters turnout in 2015, a very unusual event that is not likely to repeat itself. The nationwide average voters turn out in 2015 was 43%.

Our interaction and research indicated that despite the influence of the senate president, Saraki, majority of Kwara residents have no reason to vote for Atiku, over Buhari who won the state in 2015.

Donald Duke would be largely responsible for other parties’ performance in the South- South region.

South East is for PDP and remains a no go area for Buhari/APC, whilst some improvements are projected for the later, in South-South.

Buhari/APC is expected to retain the presidency at a projected minimum score of 52% of total valid votes cast, as against Atiku/PDP’s maximum score of 46%. Meager 2% goes to other parties.

PDP’s projected performance despite controlling only 2 regions out of 6,is absolutely amazing .However this could be attributable to a cult like and very high percentage voting support in the South East(92%) and South South(71%),giving an average of 81.5%,compared to an average of just 64.25% for APC in the controlled 4 regions.

Deciding Factors for Voters:

Based on our findings, the following major factors and or attributes have shaped the direction of decided voters:












https://www.financialdigest.com.ng/blog-post/buhari-projected-to-win-2019-presidential-election-by-at-least-52/

Thes guys should just forget about prediction. Few days to go and eyes go clear.

Beautify your ideas and business this year with a colourful website/blog/software. Be an early riser! Check my signature for contacts.

E go be like film for APC eyes when e go happen. Feb 16 is few days from now.

AtikuObilated.

The most scientific and data driven prediction so far .

When the tie is close the incumbent wins.

This is the closest to the reality. However, the analyst is too generous for PDP in his/her analysis.

PDP cannot get that number in South East except they rig the election ( which will not happen easily).

PDP cannot get the number given to it in the North East eg winning Plateau, Nassarawa and Adamawa is impossible.

PDP having 2.8M in South West is a mission impossible. Where is the PDP in the SW? Dead in Ogun, dead in Oyo, dead in Ekiti, dead in Ondo and struggling in Lagos.

Buhari will have 60%

Atiku 35%

Others 5%

most data focused and objective prediction so far. however I have issue with the turn out in South East.

rusher14:
When the tie is close the incumbent wins.

You guys have moved from landslide for buhari to close tie yet, incumbent wins. February 16th reality will hit buharideens into ICU. #presidentElectAtiku2019.

paq1:

You guys have moved from landslide for buhari to close tie yet, incumbent wins. February 16th reality will hit buharideens into ICU. #presidentElectAtiku2019.

This is a statistic driven prediction.

If you cannot contribute to the discourse via the basis of statistics, it's best you buzz off.

continue to give the lifeless one hope when doura na him sure for am pass

Predict warever you want. Buhari will win, it's sealed!

You can keep on analysing ...we the real voters with PVC no sabi your analysis.... All we know na ..Said Buhari, NextLevel Straight!

Near accurate predictions even though I don’t think PDP will get as high as 92% in south east and 71% in south south. I also think APC figure for north west should be around 75% and north east 60%.

This is a near accurate prediction. I will sure mark this prediction.

From a neutral pov, Buhari is likely to win by around 60%

seunmsg:
Near accurate predictions even though I don’t think PDP will get as high as 92% in south east and 71% in south south. I also think APC figure for north west should be around 75% and north east 60%.

Worst case scenario, that is why Buhari's victory is put at minimum of 52%.

50 % rigging I'll say.

Nonsense so Atiku won't win any south west states abi?

Ondo,osun and Lagos is sure for him

rusher14:


This is a statistic driven prediction.

If you cannot contribute to the discourse via the basis of statistics, it's best you buzz off.

There are dozens of statistic driven predictions out there. And majority forecast an Atiku win yet, buharideens only cheery pick.

February 16th national restoration day.

Even ibb said Niger state is an easy ride for atiku

Kogi and Kwara, Atiku has already won there

MR INTEGRITY...
* 15 SANs Defended BUHARI On A Certificate He NEVER Had and There was no call for Buhari to Resign. Yet Buhari is fighting corruption!
* Buhari has forged WAEC certificate on 2 different occasions; in 2015 and 2018, and there are no calls for buhari's resignation. Yet buhari says he is fighting corruption. Is forgery not a crime? Is forgery not corruption? Why are there no calls for buhari's resignation?
* Buhari lied under Oath that his Certificate was with Military Board, which the Military denied and There was no call for Buhari to Resign and Buhari says he is fighting corruption.
* Buhari claimed to have sat for the Cambridge Syndicate Exams in 1961 and in 2018 Buhari turned round to Present an Attestation certificate for another Exam body WAEC that has no relationship with Cambridge. Yet no one called for Buhari to Resign and Buhari says he is fighting corruption.
* Till this day Buhari has Presented NO WAEC Certificate to INEC, even after receiving an Attestation, and his supporters find nothing wrong with that or .......the Mobs calling for CJN’s resignation. ....and Buhari says he is fighting cortuption.

Atiku own zamfara and jigawa

Kano and Kaduna is too close to call

The only prediction that i say 85 percent accurate i have seen.
However i dont agree with the predictiom for Adamawa, plateau, nasarawa, imo, edo and rivers.

paq1:

There are dozens of statistic driven predictions out there. And majority forecast an Atiku win yet, buharideens only cheery pick.

February 16th national restoration day.

Oya show us links to any of them,as scientific as this

Atiku will definitely get up to two or three states in south west.

E go be like dream when atiku looses in the entire region
Atiku ko...abubakr in
No way
Obi should decamp and join okorocha for 2023 race otherwise... Relegated

This is the closest to what to expect from results next week.
However the flaws are:
South East: Ipob members boycotting the elections means lower turnout in the SE.
Voters turnout in the SE will be around 40% or less. And I expect to see APC get around 15% while PDP gets 80%, others including APGA...5%.

South South: APC will do far better than 19%. APC will get at least 30% here.
No GEJ on the ballot so APC might win Edo.
Akpabio is on the ballot on the same day, while Uyo has always been an APC stronghold. APC should get at least 40% in AKS.
Omo-Agege is on the ballot in Delta Central, Udughan is on the ballot in Delta South, both on the same day. APC should get at least 30% in Delta.
If Rivers court cases is finally sorted out, the current senators will be on the ballot apart from Magnus Abe. Plus, Rivers elections are always about federal might and control of security. Amaechi will likely repay Wike and APC should get 50% or more.

North East: Atiku will lose Adamawa. At best he'll get 45%.

Extra: Nasarawa, Plateau....too close to call.

Lagos has cosmopolitan voters so Others - Sowore, Muoghalu and Durotoye should score 15% put together while APC gets 45% and PDP 40%.
Apart from Lagos; Sowore, Muoghalu and Durotoye will get Jamb scores in the remaining 35 states.

Very plausible and credible.its the worst case scenario for buhari.