Intelligence Analysts and political risk researchers agreed the opposition party would defeat the incumbent.

Nigeria election scheduled for February 16, 2019, will be a straight fight between the ruling All Progressive Party (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Mr. Atiku Abubakar of PDP may likely emerge as the winner of 2019 presidential poll.

Nigerians do not trust APC again because of broken promises, and President Buhari is not as popular as he was in 2015.

President Buhari seems not to have the backing of the International Community, which he had in 2015.

Insider Threat – we confirm that a significant number of people are supporting APC, and not Buhari. Most of them are government appointees, including some ministers. While PDP has remained united, stronger and has gained momentum since her presidential primaries, the outcome of APC primaries that pitched some governors against their party candidates may likely affect its fortune in those States like Rivers, Ogun, Imo and Zamfara States.

The incumbent President Buhari faces stiff opposition in the northern part of Nigeria, which has remained his stronghold for several years. His primary challenger (Atiku) comes from the same zone with him. Buhari lost out in a similar contest against his fellow Hausa/Muslim candidate (Umoru Yar’dua) in 2007.

Also, the Middle Belt of Nigeria has been a battleground and deciding factor since 1979. Whoever emerges President must show strength in Kwara State, Kogi State, Benue State, Taraba State, Plateau State, Nasarawa State, Niger State, Adamawa State, the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja), as well as the southern parts of Kaduna State, Kebbi State, Bauchi State, and Gombe.

Analysis

Nigeria had 19 States in 1979. Chief Obafemi Awolowo cleared the entire South West, Azikiwe maintained his South East as a clear leader. Aminu Kano Party won in the core North (known as NW of today). President Shagari emerged as the winner courtesy of the vote from the Middle Belt states and today’s SS (Rivers and Cross Rivers).

In 1999, Former President Obasanjo lost in the SW, divided NW and emerged strongly in the Middle Belt States, SS and SE to become President.

In 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan lost in NW and NE but won in NC, SW, SS, and SE.

In 2015, the main reason Buhari defeated former President Jonathan was because GEJ lost in Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and another part of the Middle Belt States.

As at today, monetary inducement will fail and has proved to be less effective when a candidate is not favorite in Nigeria. It will take sophisticated manipulation or forceful declaration by INEC for President Buhari to win those critical Middle Belt States.

Most importantly, some core Northern elders are suspicious SW support for President Buhari, known his state of health. They would not want the repeat of Yar’adua/GEJ scenario that will make the North relinquish power to SW. They are passing this message silently to their people.

Overall, we project Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as the winner of the February 2019 election with 55%.

http://casaonline.org/2019/02/09/opposition-candidate-favored-to-win-nigeria-presidential-election-on-february-16-2019/

God will help Nigeria, even on Nairaland PMB is loosing!

That's not news anymore. Atiku would win. I can bet it with any amount

awelekiti:
That's not news anymore. Atiku would win. I can bet it with any amount

Without rigging PMB is gone,even people's opinion on the street

You did not include the 101% votes he got in Kano State which at the moment, is impossible.

Omooba77:


Without rigging PMB is gone,even people's opinion on the street

even with rigging, Atiku will still win. This coming election will be though. Non residents in kano are even planning to flee ahead of polls. It's in the news for doubting thomases to read. All parties are ready to monitor their votes this time, regardless of the threats or attacks from any side. They know apc would want to rig at all cost and that's why the CJN was arraigned and removed within 3 days...the fastest in the world and Guinness book of world record said they'd publish it in their next edition. Did they not k know the CJN didn't declare asset before his appointment? Lol. Apc knows Nigerians aren't happy with them so, they're trying all they could to win but hey. Its gonna be tough cos people are ready to defend their votes . Unfortunately, those who won kano for PMB had left the party. Ganduje isn't a popular politician in kano cos it was kwakwanso who put him there. The dollar bribe is another setback for him.

Continue deceiving yourselves. PMB will win comfortably. You guys better accept it is PMB till 2023 and get on with your lives.

awelekiti:
even with rigging, Atiku will still win. This coming election will be though. Non residents in kano are even planning to flee ahead of polls. It's in the news for doubting thomases to read. All parties are ready to monitor their votes this time, regardless of the threats or attacks from any side. They know apc would want to rig at all cost and that's why the CJN was arraigned and removed within 3 days...the fastest in the world and Guinness book of world record said they'd publish it in their next edition. Did they not k know the CJN didn't declare asset before his appointment? Lol. Apc knows Nigerians aren't happy with them so, they're trying all they could to win but hey. Its gonna be tough cos people are ready to defend their votes . Unfortunately, those who won kano for PMB had left the party. Ganduje isn't a popular politician in kano cos it was kwakwanso who put him there. The dollar bribe is another setback for him.

That is true, I was around Surulere today, people were just collecting 5k plus face cap, many didnot bothered to enter Teslim Balogun.
Ebi npa awon enyan!

God will give us peaceful election in Jesus name

awelekiti:
even with rigging, Atiku will still win. This coming election will be though. Non residents in kano are even planning to flee ahead of polls. It's in the news for doubting thomases to read. All parties are ready to monitor their votes this time, regardless of the threats or attacks from any side. They know apc would want to rig at all cost and that's why the CJN was arraigned and removed within 3 days...the fastest in the world and Guinness book of world record said they'd publish it in their next edition. Did they not k know the CJN didn't declare asset before his appointment? Lol. Apc knows Nigerians aren't happy with them so, they're trying all they could to win but hey. Its gonna be tough cos people are ready to defend their votes . Unfortunately, those who won kano for PMB had left the party. Ganduje isn't a popular politician in kano cos it was kwakwanso who put him there. The dollar bribe is another setback for him.

February 16th...
The reality of your perfidy will hit...

Atiku will win this election, all things being equal.

DrGoodman:
Atiku will win this election, all things being equal.

Pendulum is swinging towards him, may God help us. Oluwaseun for this crucial week!

Omooba77:


Pendulum is swinging towards him, may God help us. Oluwaseun for this crucial week!

Self deceit!

DrGoodman:
Atiku will win this election, all things being equal.

Are you sure you are awake?

It's here already. Let them keep their predictions .


Ranar haihuwa cibiyar bata buya( meaning the day a child will be born, the navel cannot or does not hide).


Atiku go lose excellently by God's grace.

AlhajaChinyere:


Are you sure you are awake?

I'm sure the guy is in coma .

The Buhari government make claims to have saved trillions of Naira in the TSA. Still, they kept gallivanting around the world in search of foreign loans.
Too many of his close relatives were recruited into his government. For instance, Mamman Daura (nephew), Chief of Staff (nephew), Minister of state for Aviation (nephew), his ADC ( in-law), his Personal Assistants (nephews), Minister of State for Trade, Industry and Investment (niece), etc.
He removed the Chief Justice of Nigeria without following constitutionally defined due process.
Buhari dominates the heads of security agencies with Northerners: NSA (Borno); Chief of Army Staff (Borno); National Security Adviser (Borno); EFCC (Borno); Minister of Defense (Zamfara); Chief of Air Staff (Bauchi State); IG of Police (Nassarawa); NSCDC (Niger); DSS (Kano); Nigeria Immigration Service (Jigawa State); Nigeria Customs Service (Bauchi State); Nigeria Prison Service (Kebbi State).
At the early stage of his administration, Buhari’s relatives and children of his aides were allocated 91 positions in an illegal and secret CBN employment exercise.
“Budget padding” entered the Nigerian lexicon after federal lawmakers spotted inflated cost of projects and items in Buhari’s National Budget proposal.
Buhari vowed to punish “budget-padding” culprits in his government. He never did.
$43 million cash was found in an Ikoyi apartment. It is already more than a year since a probe panel was instituted, yet nothing has changed.

AtikulatedNaija:
The Buhari government make claims to have saved trillions of Naira in the TSA. Still, they kept gallivanting around the world in search of foreign loans.
Too many of his close relatives were recruited into his government. For instance, Mamman Daura (nephew), Chief of Staff (nephew), Minister of state for Aviation (nephew), his ADC ( in-law), his Personal Assistants (nephews), Minister of State for Trade, Industry and Investment (niece), etc.
He removed the Chief Justice of Nigeria without following constitutionally defined due process.
Buhari dominates the heads of security agencies with Northerners: NSA (Borno); Chief of Army Staff (Borno); National Security Adviser (Borno); EFCC (Borno); Minister of Defense (Zamfara); Chief of Air Staff (Bauchi State); IG of Police (Nassarawa); NSCDC (Niger); DSS (Kano); Nigeria Immigration Service (Jigawa State); Nigeria Customs Service (Bauchi State); Nigeria Prison Service (Kebbi State).
At the early stage of his administration, Buhari’s relatives and children of his aides were allocated 91 positions in an illegal and secret CBN employment exercise.
“Budget padding” entered the Nigerian lexicon after federal lawmakers spotted inflated cost of projects and items in Buhari’s National Budget proposal.
Buhari vowed to punish “budget-padding” culprits in his government. He never did.
$43 million cash was found in an Ikoyi apartment. It is already more than a year since a probe panel was instituted, yet nothing has changed.

They have gullible supporters, though learned still ignorant!

AlhajaChinyere:

Self deceit!

It is just 7.days to go sir, eyes go clear.

I have stopped arguing with zombies this days. 16th February will vindicate everything. Atiku has [won already]

BIAFRONIGERIAN:
I have stopped arguing with zombies this days. 16th February will vindicate everything. Atiku has [won already]

Yes ooo
Lalasticlala

Opposition in Uganda I guess?

Feb 16 Nigeria presidential election is already done and dusted. We are only waiting for the formality on Saturday.

Just 6 days to separate boys from men

helinues:
Opposition in Uganda I guess?

Feb 16 Nigeria presidential election is already done and dusted. We are only waiting for the formality on Saturday.

Just 6 days to separate boys from men

Only God controls the affairs of men

Omooba77:


Only God controls the affairs of men

And who controls the affairs of women?

By this time results would have been flowing in. Kano red already!!!

awelekiti:
That's not news anymore. Atiku would win. I can bet it with any amount

Hope our votes count

Atiku will win with wild margin ask from street. ask from churches . From mosques from school's from maket. Maybe from hospital Atiku is mtn everywhere you go

Timatayo1:
Atiku will win with wild margin ask from street. ask from churches . From mosques from school's from maket. Maybe from hospital Atiku is mtn everywhere you go

Your head dey there, Let them go to streets and see how vexed people are with PMB

When PMB wins and Atiku loses, I'll love to hear the next song Igbos would sing