₦airaland Forum

PastorandMentor:
Thunder fire APC

And your parents.

tegrianonigltd:
Fight Wike the thug?? Wike look like someone who is ready to kill his mother for position

What can he do without don wanny and martins mannah? He does not have the resources to fight apc on 16 and 2nd.

sarrki:
South-south and South-east: My Thought On PDP stronghold –

PDP have consistently won 60% or more of the total votes since 2003 in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo and Rivers.

In the last election, PDP got about 50% of their total votes from these states, 6,892,762 votes. The party received 80% or more from each state; the highest was Anambra with 98.5%. But what are the chances of PDP/Atiku repeating the 2015 feat next week in their stronghold?

Personally, I believe PDP have lost some ground in most of these states, if not all.

• In Anambra, Governor Obiano is not hiding his affection for President Buhari and not shying away from publicly promoting the achievements of the Buhari Government in the state and south east as a whole. PDP won the state with 98.5% of the total votes in the last election, I strongly believe this time around, the state could easily swing in favour of either of the two major parties.

• Imo, despite the obvious friction in Imo APC, the incumbent Governor is still solidly behind President Buhari and APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. I doubt if that support will be readily available in the Gubernatorial election especially. I believe APC have a better chance of winning this state.

• In Akwa Ibom and Delta, APC has successfully formed some great alliances and the party seem united in both states. In 2015, PDP secured 2.2 million votes from both states compare to APC 107,321. With the two states boasting 4,965,001 registered voters, an increase of over 1 million newly registered from last election, there is all to play for. I believe PDP will still win both states. I do not honestly believe APC is strong enough to win either state in this election, but I am confident the party will do exceptionally well, which will be nothing compare to the 2015 result.

• No doubt APC have gained some ground in Abia, cross river, Enugu, Bayelsa and Ebonyi, they are not significant enough for the party to win any of those states. PDP will still retain these states but not in a way they will want to. In the last election, PDP had about 90% of total votes in all these states, I don’t see that happening in this election. APC will comfortably secure at least the required 25% in all, and looking at the voting record of these states, it would be considered a decent outing for APC.

• Rivers state, the crown jewel of PDP stronghold with 3,215,273 registered voters. In the last election, PDP had 95% of total votes (1,487,075 votes) compare to APC 4.4% (69,238 votes). Thanks to Amaechi, Abe and co, they have successfully made a mess of APC’s chances in the state. Even though I do honestly believe PDP will win the state, I also believe APC will perform far better than they did in 2015.

At the end of the day, south-south and south-east will remain a PDP stronghold, at least the time being. Though PDP is still firmly entrenched in these two regions, but with Imo state out of their grip, and both main parties having a 50-50 chance of winning Anambra state, this is enough to worry PDP. It says a lot on how deep APC has encroached into their territory. APC secured only about 5% of total votes in SS and SE in 2015, and they still won the election. If they manage to secure about 35-40% in this election, which believe they will, it would be considered a great success. If I were PDP supporter, I would be worried.

You have good analysis but you haven’t dwelled on the muddle belt which APC won last time but have lost grounds a bit to PDP. And the core north which would be difficult for APC considering now the battle is between two core Muslims. Secondly the northerners see it as a gain of PdP wins cause that means 8 years more of power in the north than of APC wins which is just 4 years. Whoever wins favors them.

sarrki:
South-south and South-east: My Thought On PDP stronghold –

PDP have consistently won 60% or more of the total votes since 2003 in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo and Rivers.

In the last election, PDP got about 50% of their total votes from these states, 6,892,762 votes. The party received 80% or more from each state; the highest was Anambra with 98.5%. But what are the chances of PDP/Atiku repeating the 2015 feat next week in their stronghold?

Personally, I believe PDP have lost some ground in most of these states, if not all.

• In Anambra, Governor Obiano is not hiding his affection for President Buhari and not shying away from publicly promoting the achievements of the Buhari Government in the state and south east as a whole. PDP won the state with 98.5% of the total votes in the last election, I strongly believe this time around, the state could easily swing in favour of either of the two major parties.

• Imo, despite the obvious friction in Imo APC, the incumbent Governor is still solidly behind President Buhari and APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. I doubt if that support will be readily available in the Gubernatorial election especially. I believe APC have a better chance of winning this state.

• In Akwa Ibom and Delta, APC has successfully formed some great alliances and the party seem united in both states. In 2015, PDP secured 2.2 million votes from both states compare to APC 107,321. With the two states boasting 4,965,001 registered voters, an increase of over 1 million newly registered from last election, there is all to play for. I believe PDP will still win both states. I do not honestly believe APC is strong enough to win either state in this election, but I am confident the party will do exceptionally well, which will be nothing compare to the 2015 result.

• No doubt APC have gained some ground in Abia, cross river, Enugu, Bayelsa and Ebonyi, they are not significant enough for the party to win any of those states. PDP will still retain these states but not in a way they will want to. In the last election, PDP had about 90% of total votes in all these states, I don’t see that happening in this election. APC will comfortably secure at least the required 25% in all, and looking at the voting record of these states, it would be considered a decent outing for APC.

• Rivers state, the crown jewel of PDP stronghold with 3,215,273 registered voters. In the last election, PDP had 95% of total votes (1,487,075 votes) compare to APC 4.4% (69,238 votes). Thanks to Amaechi, Abe and co, they have successfully made a mess of APC’s chances in the state. Even though I do honestly believe PDP will win the state, I also believe APC will perform far better than they did in 2015.

At the end of the day, south-south and south-east will remain a PDP stronghold, at least the time being. Though PDP is still firmly entrenched in these two regions, but with Imo state out of their grip, and both main parties having a 50-50 chance of winning Anambra state, this is enough to worry PDP. It says a lot on how deep APC has encroached into their territory. APC secured only about 5% of total votes in SS and SE in 2015, and they still won the election. If they manage to secure about 35-40% in this election, which believe they will, it would be considered a great success. If I were PDP supporter, I would be worried.

My friend you have tried to analyse it but all these will happen in the governor ship election not in the presidential election...

sarrki:
South-south and South-east: My Thought On PDP stronghold –

PDP have consistently won 60% or more of the total votes since 2003 in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo and Rivers.

In the last election, PDP got about 50% of their total votes from these states, 6,892,762 votes. The party received 80% or more from each state; the highest was Anambra with 98.5%. But what are the chances of PDP/Atiku repeating the 2015 feat next week in their stronghold?

Personally, I believe PDP have lost some ground in most of these states, if not all.

• In Anambra, Governor Obiano is not hiding his affection for President Buhari and not shying away from publicly promoting the achievements of the Buhari Government in the state and south east as a whole. PDP won the state with 98.5% of the total votes in the last election, I strongly believe this time around, the state could easily swing in favour of either of the two major parties.

• Imo, despite the obvious friction in Imo APC, the incumbent Governor is still solidly behind President Buhari and APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. I doubt if that support will be readily available in the Gubernatorial election especially. I believe APC have a better chance of winning this state.

• In Akwa Ibom and Delta, APC has successfully formed some great alliances and the party seem united in both states. In 2015, PDP secured 2.2 million votes from both states compare to APC 107,321. With the two states boasting 4,965,001 registered voters, an increase of over 1 million newly registered from last election, there is all to play for. I believe PDP will still win both states. I do not honestly believe APC is strong enough to win either state in this election, but I am confident the party will do exceptionally well, which will be nothing compare to the 2015 result.

• No doubt APC have gained some ground in Abia, cross river, Enugu, Bayelsa and Ebonyi, they are not significant enough for the party to win any of those states. PDP will still retain these states but not in a way they will want to. In the last election, PDP had about 90% of total votes in all these states, I don’t see that happening in this election. APC will comfortably secure at least the required 25% in all, and looking at the voting record of these states, it would be considered a decent outing for APC.

• Rivers state, the crown jewel of PDP stronghold with 3,215,273 registered voters. In the last election, PDP had 95% of total votes (1,487,075 votes) compare to APC 4.4% (69,238 votes). Thanks to Amaechi, Abe and co, they have successfully made a mess of APC’s chances in the state. Even though I do honestly believe PDP will win the state, I also believe APC will perform far better than they did in 2015.

At the end of the day, south-south and south-east will remain a PDP stronghold, at least the time being. Though PDP is still firmly entrenched in these two regions, but with Imo state out of their grip, and both main parties having a 50-50 chance of winning Anambra state, this is enough to worry PDP. It says a lot on how deep APC has encroached into their territory. APC secured only about 5% of total votes in SS and SE in 2015, and they still won the election. If they manage to secure about 35-40% in this election, which believe they will, it would be considered a great success. If I were PDP supporter, I would be worried.

Good analysis done here.
Well done Sarrki.

xpansion:
You have good analysis but you haven’t dwelled on the muddle belt which APC won last time but have lost grounds a bit to PDP. And the core north which would be difficult for APC considering now the battle is between two core Muslims. Secondly the northerners see it as a gain of PdP wins cause that means 8 years more of power in the north than of APC wins which is just 4 years. Whoever wins favors them.

It's a faulty structure for PDP to have depended for 60% of its total votes from SE/SS alone.
On top of that, everybody knows this historical figure has actually been driven by rigging. Voter turnout has never been up to 45% in the SS yet they racked up these fictitious figures that don't meet up to statistical scrutiny or even the reality of geography.

I believe the regional governors realize this and have struck deals eith Buhari to secure second terms for those of them still eligible.
Definitely, 60% of PDP votes are not coming from the SS on Saturday.

The naked truth will come open on Saturday about the historical reality of Nigerian elections.

I have friendly confessions from hundreds of youth corpses who participated in previous elections about bribery and doctoring of figures.

There is also widespread use of underage voters and aliens up North. Both parties are guilty of this as Kwankwaso, Tambuwal, Atiku and others are now in the PDP.

Expect stunning surprises. Akwa Ibom, Delta are not settled.
Lagos might go PDP.
Generally Atiku will perform more woefully than Goodluck Jonathan and only those who believed 2011 and 2014 figures would be surprised.
PDP has been rigging senselessly. Some areas we thought they were strong were only 'slight majority' areas. Their slight majority areas might change with two Fulani on the ballot.

kahal29:
LIVE FROM
Rivers state
Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

APC PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN RALLY
PORT-HARCOURT

Preparations ongoing.......

By the state chairman Hon Ojukaye Flag Amachree

#PMBinRivers

Liar, no mata wat, e no possible.
Mind u I support no party

SternProphet:
It's a faulty structure for PDP to have depended for 60% of its total votes from SE/SS alone.
On top of that, everybody knows this historical figure has actually been driven by rigging. Voter turnout has never been up to 45% in the SS yet they racked up these fictitious figures that don't meet up to statistical scrutiny or even the reality of geography.

I believe the regional governors realize this and have struck deals eith Buhari to secure second terms for those of them still eligible.
Definitely, 60% of PDP votes are not coming from the SS on Saturday.

The naked truth will come open on Saturday about the historical reality of Nigerian elections.

I have friendly confessions from hundreds of youth corpses who participated in previous elections about bribery and doctoring of figures.

There is also widespread use of underage voters and aliens up North. Both parties are guilty of this as Kwankwaso, Tambuwal, Atiku and others are now in the PDP.

Expect stunning surprises. Akwa Ibom, Delta are not settled.
Lagos might go PDP.
Generally Atiku will perform more woefully than Goodluck Jonathan and only those who believed 2011 and 2014 figures would be surprised.
PDP has been rigging senselessly. Some areas we thought they were strong were only 'slight majority' areas. Their slight majority areas might change with two Fulani on the ballot.

Lagos can't go pdp and it won't.

There are so many animal in this forum who believe that APC will win IMO. I was born and brought up in IMO and I have been around Owerri since 2yrs now, Let me tell all APC f**ck this name "buhari" is like a cancer in d ear of Imolite even APC members here will vote for Atiku cos they all knows thay buhari is a dumebi. PDP will get get above what they got in 2015.

senatordave1:
Pdp had incumbency then,had an alliance with apga.pdp had uzodinma,araraume but now only ihedioha is in pdp plus AA is supporting buhari.

well to me oo I don't see APC wining IMO with all the woes that surround them now in IMO state.another thing is even the down south of the country is naturally PDP buhari needs more campaign in this region than anywhere else.my opinion am open for correction

Askme8:
well to me oo I don't see APC wining IMO with all the woes that surround them now in IMO state.another thing is even the down south of the country is naturally PDP buhari needs more campaign in this region than anywhere else.my opinion am open for correction

I never said buhari will win imo,not possible.but he will surely get 35% there.in south south,what counts is rigging not free and fair polls.it is alien here.

senatordave1:
I never said buhari will win imo,not possible.but he will surely get 35% there.in south south,what counts is rigging not free and fair polls.it is alien here.

noooo don't say that oo anything is possible this is politics it might go the other way round u can't tell