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My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction - Politics - Nairaland

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My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 12:52pm On Feb 20, 2019
It's no more news that the Presidential Elections earlier scheduled to hold on the 16th of February 2019 has been postponed and is now billed for Saturday 23 of February 2019. A whole lot of political experts have dropped predictions about who they think will win the Elections. Each of these individuals have premises on which their predictions are based and I won't dispute any of such predictions.
In the Spirit of the season, I have also sat down, taken some factors into consideration and come up with what I feel will most likely be the outcome of this Election.
NB: I don't claim to be a political don and I believe I might be wrong in some of my submission. I'll appreciate only intelectual discourse on this thread.
I hereby submit my predictions on a zone by zone basis

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by dlondonbadboy: 12:55pm On Feb 20, 2019
Zombie way na one way...

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Chukwurah003: 12:56pm On Feb 20, 2019
Let us pray....
Back to sender Atiku! I say back to sender Atiku!!!
Back to sender Atiku! I say back to sender with your evil plans Atiku!!!
Back to sender Atiku! Your plans to reverse Nigeria’s economic growth shall not see the light of the day Atiku!!! Your plans to improverish Nigerians again will turn you and your band of thieves into beggars in the name of Jesus!
Back to sender in the name of Jesus!! We bind you and your fellow thieves!!! Atiku back to sender in Jesus name!!! Amen!!!! Now say after me: “our future is bright because we are free from Atiku”. Amen!!! God has removed every Atiku from our lives. Remain blessed.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by dedonfranco(m): 1:05pm On Feb 20, 2019
U can't marry a beautiful girl because she can cook a Gud food.
Say No PDP
Say No Corruption.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 1:21pm On Feb 20, 2019
NORTH-EAST:
This is the home region of the PDP presidential candidate and an historical stronghold of the APC presidential candidate.
Borno : APC to garner 75-80% of votes cast. Reasons: Apart from being one of the states that Muhammadu Buhari had always banked on in previous elections, the fight against the Boko Haram insurgents coupled with PDP's near zero presence in the state makes me feel that PMB will take such high percentage in the state.
Yobe : APC to get 75 to 80% of valid votes. Reasons: The same factors I feel will lead to an APC victory in Borno state also applies to Yobe state.
Gombe : APC to get 55 to 60 percent of votes cast. Reasons: Having won in this state in 2015 coupled with PMB's modest achievement in agriculture through the anchor borrowers scheme and the fertiler revolution, I feel the APC will still take the day in this state.
Bauchi : A neighbouring state to Borno, Muhammadu Buhari has always been popular in this state. Coupled with the gale of defections that saw individuals such as Ex PDP chairman Adamu Muazu, ex Governor Isa Yuguda and other big players in the state's politics defect to the APC, and results from bye elections conducted last year, I predict the APC to get between 60 to 65 percent of valid votes in the state.
Taraba : This is one state that has always been problematic for President Muhammadu Buhari. It's largely christian population, the defection of Mama Taraba from APC and inter-tribal clashes between the Fulanis who are minority and the main indigenes of the state will all combine to deny PMB majority of votes in this state. In all, I don't think the APC will get more than 25 to 30 percent of votes in this state.
Adamawa : This is one state that throws up a whole lotta headaches. While the PDP presidential candidate is from this state, the APC has a lot of chieftains from this same state. From Nuhu Ribadu to Boss Mustapha (The SGF) and Babachir Lawal (The ex SGF), Jibrilla Bindow and Aisha Buhari (The first lady). In spite of the afore mentioned names and the decimation of the Boko Haram menace that once plagued this state, I see Alhaji Atiku Abubakar getting at least 60 percent of votes in the state. One reason for this submission is the infighting that trailed the APC primary elections in the state and the fact that this is Atiku Abubakar's home turf

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 1:53pm On Feb 20, 2019
NORTH WEST :
Kano The beautiful bride, This state was a game changer for the APC in 2015 and with over 5 million registered voters, it is a big fish in Nigerian politics. A lot has however changed since 2015; one of these changes is the fact that unlike in 2015, Muhammadu Buhari is not vying for the presidency against a southern christian but rather, he's up in arms against a fellow northern muslim. Apart from that, 2018 witnessed the defection of one of the most popular(if not the most popular) politician in the state (Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso) to the PDP..... The Ganduje dollar video also haven't done the APC any favors in the state. Having said that, one question that is prevalent is: Can Kwankwaso deliver Kano state to the PDP? From history and feelers on ground, the answer is NO. From history, Kano state has always been a stronghold of Buhari and in 2003, his party the ANPP even defeated Kwankwaso (Who was an incumbent governor).... And in the 2011 presidential elections, a newly formed CPC also defeated PDP.... A platform under which kwankwaso was vying for a governorship position. Again, from feelers in Kano state many of Kwankwaso's supporters hold no grudge against Muhammadu Buhari and have no scrupples against voting for him as their grouse is against the state Governor. In light of all these, I think Buhari will still win Kano state.... Albeit without such large margin as witnessed in 2015.... I'll say a 65 to 75 percent of valid votes in Kano will go to the APC
To the Other North Western states : Katsina : The home state of the APC presidential candidate. Expect no upset here and the question should be APC's margin of victory in the state. In this respect, I predict the APC to get 75 to 80 percent of votes in this state.
Jigawa: The homestate of a PDP big wig, Alhaji Sule Lamido, he'll want to send a message about who really is 'owns' the state politically. In spite of this, Jigawa being a mainly agricultural state has benefitted immensely from the president's policies in agriculture and I believe this is one of the reasons why the APC will garner 55-60 percent of votes in the state.
Kebbi : If there's any state that can be regarded as the rice capital of Nigeria, I think it's Kebbi state. The people of this state has benefited immensely from PMB's ban on importation of foreign rice. This coupled with the his other agricultural policies and the governor's modest achievements is one reason why I'm tipping the APC to get between 65 to 70 percent of votes in this state.
Sokoto : Seat of the caliphate, this state is one state where the PDP can actually expect to give a strong showing in the North West. The above assertion is thanks to Governor Aminu Tambuwal's defection from d APC in 2018. On the other hand, Aliyu Wammako claims to be the most popular politician in the state... This is a battle of who really owns Sokoto state. Is it the godfather or the godson? Well, The Wamako influence coupled with the Buhari factor should be enough to give the APC at least 55 percent of votes in the state.
Kaduna : Mr. President's state of residence, this state also boasts of being the state of a foremost PDP chieftain Alhaji Ahmed Markafi and ex vice president Namadi Sambo. While the APC remains popular in Kaduna north and Central, it is almost absent in Southern Kaduna. This owes much to the frequent inter tribal issues in that part of the state and Governor El-Rufai's policies and actions which are said to be devisive. Another major question is the Shiites. Will they vote? If yes, with PMB's incarceration of their leader, you can guess who they'll be voting for. The popularity of PMB and the party in north and central Kaduna is the reason why I feel the APC will get between 55 to 60 percent of votes in the state
Zamfara : A traditional APC state. Despite the self inflicted inability to present candidates in this state, the PDP has almost no presence here. This coupled with the popularity of PMB, I think the APC will get at least 70 percent of votes here

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 2:18pm On Feb 20, 2019
South-South :
Rivers: Rivers has always been a traditional PDP stronghold and the infighting within the state APC chapter hasn't done any good to the party. Forget the crowd at PMB's campaign rally in Port Harcourt. I don't see the APC securing more than 2-5% of votes in this state.
Delta : Delta state has always been a PDP stronghold and prior to 2018, U won't be wrong to give d APC no chance of getting even 5 percent of votes. However, 1 day is more than enough for alignments and realignments in politics and d decamping of several popular figures in Delta politics to APC has somewhat futhered their cause. While Buhari is a persona non-grata in Delta state, Individuals such as Great Ogboru and Ovie Omo-Agege enjoy much goodwill and followership in Delta states. Another factor in Buhari's favor is the fact that unlike in 2015, he ain't up against who the Deltans refer to as ''our Pikin''. In view of all this, I believe the APC will secure between 15 to 25 percent of votes in Delta state.
Akwa Ibom : Personally, I don't like Godswill Akpabio and his being in APC gnaws at my heart. But, no one can argue that this guy transformed Akwa Ibom and his entry into APC has somewhat changed the game in d state. Prior to his defection, APC stood no chance of getting more than 5% in the state but with him being in APC, [ No politician in Akwa Ibom] has his followership and I expect this followership to translate into votes for the APC. I'm tipping d party to get at least 25 percent in d state.
Bayelsa: No much talk here. Bayelsa is PDP and PDP is Bayelsa. Buhari will struggle to get 5% in this state.
Cross Rivers: The election in this state will have less to do with the popularity of the candidates but the popularity and structure of the party and in this regard, the PDP trumps the APC and this will be fully reflected in the results where I expect the APC to not get more than 5% of the votes

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 2:23pm On Feb 20, 2019
BafanaBafana, Investbrooker, Nadheer15,APCsupporter, Deomelo, BiniKingdowm, papiforreal, senatordave1, orishetimi, tuniski, 7lives, OAUTemitayo, Ganduri, hmuhammad, BabangidaHamza, seeto, Asshurbanipal, donphiilopus, kahal29, Aquariann, Watcha think?

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Investbrooker: 2:32pm On Feb 20, 2019
I dont think Atiku will will Adamawa. The state is tight.
For kebbi, Bihari will get at least 75 percent of the state.
I have people that live there so I know this

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by senatordave1(m): 2:32pm On Feb 20, 2019
handie:
BafanaBafana, Investbrooker, Nadheer15,APCsupporter, Deomelo, BiniKingdowm, papiforreal, senatordave1, orishetimi, tuniski, 7lives, OAUTemitayo, Ganduri, hmuhammad, BabangidaHamza, seeto, Asshurbanipal, donphiilopus, kahal29, Aquariann, Watcha think?
Am coming.buhari wont have less than 90% in katsina,80% in kebbi,70% in jigawa,70% in sokoto,80% in zamfara,75 in kano and 60% in kaduna.post for the other regions.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by bender79: 2:35pm On Feb 20, 2019
Every credible poll and analysis reveals buhari to win but the frenzy around social media will not allow pdp supporters realize. That is why they will cry foul after the election because they base their analysis too much on Southern votes which are prominent on social media.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by concordetz: 2:41pm On Feb 20, 2019
Question Beware of atiku,a thief is always a thief!!
Answer Beware of your language. He was not a thief when he contested apc primary and when he was with tinubu, Obasanjo, buhari bankrolling their campaign . Which court convicted him? You shall reap whatsoever you sow.
Question Neither has he challenged "my watch" in court for defamation of his character
Answer. Must he challenge it in court. You have not heard that silence is golden?. Has buhari challenge Obasanjo in court over open letters on him or are you accepting corruptness an incompetence of buhari government.?

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by APCsupporter: 2:41pm On Feb 20, 2019
This is a well thought prediction but i think i disagree with you on four states:

Bauchi

Gombe

Jigawa

Sokoto

I see no reason why Buhari won't get 70% in these states. His popularity in those areas are very high. I don't stay there though but when i check their hausa groups and ask some of my guys there thats what they tell me so i am not 100% sure

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by dlondonbadboy: 2:43pm On Feb 20, 2019
Actually Buhari would get 100% in every state in this country...He would get 110% in Abuja. grin

Saturday would be funny...

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 2:46pm On Feb 20, 2019
APCsupporter:
This is a well thought prediction but i think i disagree with you on four states:

Bauchi

Gombe

Jigawa

Sokoto

I see no reason why Buhari won't get 70% in these states. His popularity in those areas are very high. I don't stay there though but when i check their hausa groups and ask some of my guys there thats what they tell me so i am not 100% sure
Well, to err on the side of caution is recommended when making predictions.... That's why I gave such percentages

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 2:47pm On Feb 20, 2019
grin
Buhari can never ever get even 5% in south south..

Ogun kill whoever vote. Buhari

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 2:47pm On Feb 20, 2019
handie:
Well, to err on the side of caution is recommended when making predictions.... That's why I gave such percentages
nice analysis, what do you think about Edo State?

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by PresidentAtiku(m): 2:52pm On Feb 20, 2019
"Atiku needs to start preparing his acceptance speech and forming his cabinet, there is no time to waste".
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by APCsupporter: 2:52pm On Feb 20, 2019
handie:
Well, to err on the side of caution is recommended when making predictions.... That's why I gave such percentages

No one knows bro. You may actually be right. Lets see what happens

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 2:59pm On Feb 20, 2019
North Central :
Kwara : How effective is the Otoge movement? Will Abubakar Bukola Saraki survive this war? These are some of the questions that crop up when Kwara state comes to play. While the APC must be commended for the Otoge movement, and from the result of the last bye election conducted in the state, I feel Saraki's influence in Kwara state has considerably whittled. But is it whittled enough for a Buhari victory in the state? I don't think so. I predict an Atiku victory with no more than 55percent of the votes.
Benue : A state of two tales. One is the farmers-herdsmen crises that has bedevilled the state. Another is the governor's non performance in virtually every aspect. In light of the above, I think this state will be a battleground with the winner not having more than a 5 percent winning margin.
Kogi : A case of another non performing governor. Yahaya Bello's performance is a shame. This is someone that got his position on a platter and should've done everything possible to show he deserves being governor. But this guy would rather spend his time galivanting to Abuja(Abeg no vex for my rant.... The guy really dey f up). Having said that, Yahaya Bello and the APC still control Kogi central. Kogi west is an entirely different ball game. Yahaya Bello's non performance in Lokoja(The state capital) and Dino's influence in Okun land gives the PDP an edge there. Now to the East... Prince Abubakar Audu's structure is still surviving despite his demise and with them still aligning with the APC and Buhari's popularity, I am predicting the APC having about(but no more than) 55 percent of votes in Kogi state
Plateau : This state has always been a tough nut for Buhari and his cause hasn't been helped by the Farmers-herdsmen crises in the state and neighboring states. I expect Buhari to get no more than 35-40% of votes in this state.
Nasarawa : Who'll Labaran Maku support between PDP and APC? While the frontrunner for governorship is Labaran Maku, the presidency is seeming to be harder in predicting. One way or the other, I don't see the APC securing less than 40 percent and more than 45 percent of votes in this state
Niger : Buhari to get 50-55 %
FCT: APC and Buhari to get 45 to 50%

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 3:00pm On Feb 20, 2019
Excaperx:
nice analysis, what do you think about Edo State?
While the APC is more established in the north and south, d PDP holds sway in the central.... Will deal with Edo in my South-South analysis

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:02pm On Feb 20, 2019
handie:
While the APC is more established in the north and south, d PDP holds sway in the central.... Will deal with Edo in my South-South analysis
remember in 2015 when buhari was loved, he won only 2 out of 18 local government.

It is seen as a taboo to vote for him.
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 3:17pm On Feb 20, 2019
Excaperx:
remember in 2015 when buhari was loved, he won only 2 out of 18 local government.

It is seen as a taboo to vote for him.
2015, he contested against one of ours. The perception of Atiku as being corrupt also doesn't help matters... I see Buhari and d APC winning Afenmai land, Atiku winning Esan land and Edo south (Bini land) will be a battle ground that Atiku might slightly edge. But with Afenmai land having more voters than Esan land, Atiku's edge in Bini might just be offseted(Albeit slightly) by Afenmai's surplus

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:19pm On Feb 20, 2019
handie:
2015, he contested against one of ours. The perception of Atiku as being corrupt also doesn't help matters... I see Buhari and d APC winning Afenmai land, Atiku winning Esan land and Edo south (Bini land) will be a battle ground that Atiku might slightly edge. But with Afenmai land having more voters than Esan land, Atiku's edge in Bini might just be offseted(Albeit slightly) by Afenmai's surplus
which one is afenmiland? Mtchew.

Buhari can only win oshiomole local government,i don't even know why Esan hate APC so much but this isn't our concern.

We hate buhari.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by BafanaBafana: 3:25pm On Feb 20, 2019
senatordave1:

Am coming.buhari wont have less than 90% in katsina,80% in kebbi,70% in jigawa,70% in sokoto,80% in zamfara,75 in kano and 60% in kaduna.post for the other regions.
At least 55% in Adamawa
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:25pm On Feb 20, 2019
Correction. Borno and Yobe 90%. PDP has no presence there. They hate everything PDP because of Boko haram.

Bauchi should be 70-75% too. If not because their governor mess up it would have been 80-90%.

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:28pm On Feb 20, 2019
senatordave1:

Am coming.buhari wont have less than 90% in katsina,80% in kebbi,70% in jigawa,70% in sokoto,80% in zamfara,75 in kano and 60% in kaduna.post for the other regions.
atiku will win Sokoto, zamfara and Kaduna, 46% in Kano and 35% in Katsina

50% in jigawa
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:30pm On Feb 20, 2019
papiforreal:
Correction. Borno and Yobe 90%. PDP has no presence there. They hate everything PDP because of Boko haram.

Bauchi should be 70-75% too. If not because their governor mess up it would have been 80-90%.
buhari haven't done much for them sha so borno is 70:30 in favour of buhari.

Atiku will win Bauchi. Yobe will give buhari 65%
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 3:30pm On Feb 20, 2019
Excaperx:
which one is afenmiland? Mtchew.

Buhari can only win oshiomole local government,i don't even know why Esan hate APC so much but this isn't our concern.

We hate buhari.
Afenmai land is Edo north. I'm from this place and APC is solidly established here.... As for APC winning only Oshiomole's LG, I can confidently tell u that Atiku won't have 40 percent in Akoko-Edo

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Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by Nobody: 3:31pm On Feb 20, 2019
APCsupporter:
This is a well thought prediction but i think i disagree with you on four states:

Bauchi

Gombe

Jigawa

Sokoto

I see no reason why Buhari won't get 70% in these states. His popularity in those areas are very high. I don't stay there though but when i check their hausa groups and ask some of my guys there thats what they tell me so i am not 100% sure

You are right. All the big wigs politician in Gombe and Bauchi have now detected to APC.
Re: My 2019 Presidential Elections Prediction by handie(m): 3:32pm On Feb 20, 2019
Excaperx:
atiku will win Sokoto, zamfara and Kaduna, 46% in Kano and 35% in Katsina

50% in jigawa
Atiku win Zamfara, and get 50% in Jigawa? Just a few more days bruh.

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