Bloomberg compares Nigeria 2014 and 2018-hard data

Nigeria is a much more important country than most people in the U.S. probably realize. With more than 190 million people, it’s Africa’s largest country by far (Ethiopia, the second-largest, has a little more than half as many). And with a fertility rate of about 5.5 children per woman, among the world’s highest, Nigeria is only going to grow in importance — by the century’s end, the country is projected to have almost 800 million people, almost twice as many as the U.S. by then.

But as things stand, this African giant is failing to create the prosperity that will sustain that future population. Its oil-dependent economy has struggled after oil prices plunged five years ago. The number of Nigerians in extreme poverty — generally defined as living on less than $1.90 a day — is estimated to be increasing by six every second.


Meanwhile, the country’s economic institutions are failing, with rising unemployment and debt levels. A recent Bloomberg Opinion editorial laid out the grim numbers:


In the long run, Nigeria needs to wean itself from dependence on oil by spending energy revenues on education, health and infrastructure. But that plan might take decades to bear fruit in the best of circumstances. In the short run, Nigeria needs jobs.
One of the best way to create those jobs would be to increase international trade. And the quickest way to boost trade would be to join the African Continental Free Trade Area, the planned free trade zone of the African Union (an organization dedicated to forging closer cooperation between African states). The AfCFTA now includes 52 countries and more than $2 trillion of economic activity. Entering that agreement, which would eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods, would open up plenty of new markets for Nigerian-made products.

But Nigeria’s manufacturers see the AfCFTA as more of a threat than an opportunity. Frank Jacobs, president of the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria, recently declared that “When they open our borders for all manner of products to come into this country, most of our industries will be out of business.” The Nigeria Labor Congress, an umbrella organization of trade unions, called the AfCFTA an “extremely dangerous and radioactive neo-liberal policy initiative.” As a result of this political opposition, Nigeria has balked at joining the agreement.
There is some justification for reluctance. Though the current accord is mainly about reducing tariffs between African member states, the AU plans to follow it up with a push for a customs union and a single currency. This latter step would be a bad idea. As Europe discovered so disastrously in the financial crisis, a currency union can exacerbate local recessions, since it makes it impossible for countries with weak economies to depreciate their currencies and become more competitive. A monetary union without fiscal integration makes sovereign-debt crises like the one in Greece much more likely and damaging. Africa should avoid making the same mistakes that Europe made. And Nigeria, especially, should be wary of a currency union — its natural resource exports tend to push up the value of its currency, the naira, making non-oil exports less competitive, meaning the country needs to push its currency down in order to restore balance.
But signing on to the AfCFTA wouldn't oblige Nigeria to adopt the later stages of the AU plan. For now, the priority should be opening the country to trade. Nigeria now is highly protectionist. Its list of prohibited or restricted imports is long, including items such as carpets, shoes, handbags and most types of furniture. The government also makes a large number of imports, such as textiles and clothing, ineligible for foreign exchange at the central bank’s official window, making it harder to import these items.

In her book “The Next Factory of the World: How Chinese Investment Is Reshaping Africa,” McKinsey & Co. researcher Irene Yuan Sun argues that these import restrictions have damaged Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. The obstacles to importing textiles have made it difficult for Nigeria to develop a competitive clothing-export industry of the type now growing in Ethiopia. And the impediments to importing labor-intensive manufactured goods like furniture, shoes and carpets, though it has shielded Nigeria’s manufacturers in the short term, has had the long-term effect of preventing them from learning how to compete in international markets.
This is a drag on growth. Labor-intensive manufacturing is still almost certainly the best and quickest path for nations to escape mass poverty. Journalist Joe Studwell argues in “How Asia Works” that exporting raises productivity and encourages the import and adoption of advanced foreign technology. And Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik argues that promoting exports helps countries to discover what they’re good at doing, allowing them to invest with confidence and to establish a stable niche in the global economy.
Maintaining an insular, protectionist stance is often tempting for a country as large as Nigeria, whose manufacturers are always clamoring for the prize of a captive domestic market. But this approach merely provides a crutch that ultimately preserves industrial weakness. Instead of hiding behind trade barriers, Nigeria should focus on aggressively promoting manufactured exports. Gaining access to nearby African markets would be one step toward doing that. Courting foreign-direct investment, depreciating the currency and pushing companies to export are other important steps. And in the long run, investments in education, health and infrastructure will make Nigeria an attractive platform for labor-intensive manufacturing. This is the giant African country’s best hope for escaping a looming tsunami of poverty.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-05-15/dropping-trade-barriers-could-help-nigeria-avert-soaring-poverty?fbclid=IwAR3K4xW5bWKds91jFu5DuOQtpwdnFUTNxfH5GhqE9oQn_42AdBRwK1uDuJw

800 million people in Nigeria in 2099 (century’s end)

For a country as extremely poorly managed as Nigeria, that will be the melting pot of poverty and disease

Thank God I will be long dead and gone by then.

Anybody who loves Nigeria should be asking for one thing, now: a STRONG LAW to curb childbirth to no more than 2 per family.

Otherwise, and in fact, it should be divided so that each group can manage their population growth and chart their own economic course at their own pace, peacefully for some. Nigeria is too intractable and unwieldy to manage. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know nothing will change anytime soon. It does not matter whether APC or PDP.

hmm...... An BUHARI is still planning to take us to Next Level.......
who bewitched Nigerians like this?.....

Oh my God, sivia pain for Zombies this week

OIL, the reason for some wanting Nigerians to stick together for life, is finite. I propose that if necessary, as an incentive, a formula to share oil revenue among the separated countries for 10 years can be arrived at, with international support and agreement. This will allow every group to financially develop themselves internally during the interlude. After 10 years, oil revenue reverts to the owners of each oil well.

Thankfully, we now know that oil is not the biggest deal in NIGERIA. Funds From Nigerians living overseas surpassed Oil & Gas earnings in 2018 at $25b against $18b from Oil.

Who are the Nigerians living overseas and sending these billions back to Nigeria? Igbo, Yoruba, Edo and the rest, in that order. You see, with this fact, Igbos will do well in their own country.

Igbos (South East) should exclude non-Igbo and unwilling Igbo South South people from their desired Biafran State, and make a strong case at the UN level for their own country.

It is a win-win for each region to live separately as independent countries. Assuming it is a ''Nigerian factor'' holding the country down. Separately, the North will do well with their massive land and agricultural potential. With Lagos, the West is easily the most developed part of Nigeria and will potentially keep that going. The Igbos are the most resilient Nigerians and have great human resource and acumen to survive and potentially develop themselves. The SS has oil as well as human resources to potentially develop.

Only a mad person will counter this.

The question would be if Nigeria would be in existence by then .

meccuno:
The question would be if Nigeria would be in existence by then .

Unless something drastic happens (such as a big disease outbreak, stronger and more nationally spread Boko Haram and Fulani killings, etc), Nigeria will likely remain the same in 2099. The citizens are too stupid to assert themselves, coupled with pervasive tribalism and religiosity.

spectroscopic:
OIL, the reason for some wanting Nigerians to stick together for life, is finite. I propose that if necessary, as an incentive, a formula to share oil revenue among the separated States for 10 years can be arrived at, with international support and agreement. This will allow every group to financially develop themselves internally during the interlude. After 10 years, oil revenue reverts to the owners of each oil well.

Thankfully, we now know that oil is not the biggest deal in NIGERIA. Funds From Nigerians living overseas surpassed Oil & Gas earnings in 2018 at $25b against $18b from Oil.

Who are the Nigerians living overseas and sending these billions back to Nigeria? Igbo, Yoruba, Edo and the rest, in that order. You see, with this fact, Igbos will do well in their own country.

Igbos (South East) should exclude non-Igbo and unwilling Igbo South South people from their desired Biafran State, and make a strong case at the UN level for their own country.

It is a win-win for each region to live separately as independent countries. Assuming it is a ''Nigerian factor'' holding the country down. Separately, the North will do well with their massive land and agricultural potential. With Lagos, the West is easily the most developed part of Nigeria and will potentially keep that going. The Igbos are the most resilient Nigerians and have great human resource and acumen to survive and potentially develop themselves. The SS has oil as well as human resources to potentially develop.

Every subject is an opportunity to advance your separatist agenda.
If the rain is too much today, separate us.
Palm wine is not available at the joint, separate us.

The country have no future. Simple. Only time will tell.

Guestlander:


Every subject is an opportunity to advance your separatist agenda.
If the rain is too much today, separate us.
Palm wine is not available at the joint, separate us.

I have never historically been an advocate of separation (look me up here on Nairaland) and really don't care if you separate or not. I am PERSONALLY not affected in any way with what goes on in Nigeria. But recent developments and my gut tell me that separation is better than what I am seeing now and what is being predicted for the future. Hence, I am changing my mind. I have proposed a formula that could be agreeable and less rancorous to everyone, since oil appears to be the issue militating against reasonable and peaceful separation. I even proposed the SE not include any non-SE region in their proposed country. I believe individually the different regions will be better off. I assume you are Yoruba. Why do you not want to manage your own destiny yourself?

Guestlander:


Every subject is an opportunity to advance your separatist agenda.
If the rain is too much today, separate us.
Palm wine is not available at the joint, separate us.

Nigeria should be divided so that each group can manage their population growth and chart their own economic course at their own pace. Nigeria as it is today (given tribal, religious and nepotic sentiments, as well as gross incompetence at all levels, pervasive corruption and unproductive and one-sided population growth) is too intractable and unwieldy to manage. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know nothing will change anytime soon. It does not matter whether APC or PDP.

spectroscopic:


Unless something drastic happens (such as a big disease outbreak, stronger and more nationally spread Boko Haram and Fulani killings, etc), Nigeria will likely remain the same in 2099. The citizens are too stupid to assert themselves, coupled with pervasive tribalism and religiosity.

relax. No matter how the north and the British would try but eventually Nigeria can never exist for a long period. It would definitely happen . No matter how long it would take. That's change

meccuno:
relax. No matter how the north and the British would try but eventually Nigeria can never exist for a long period. It would definitely happen . No matter how long it would take. That's change

I hope that time comes sooner than later. Thank God for establishing death as a means to take mankind away from this ''wicked'' world

Buhari failed all round when compared to 2014 GEJ yet wicked mean people like Tinubu and co supported such a man for selfish reason

Non oil revenue to GDP still 4% in both periods....

Where is the impact of the Agricultural innovations and benchmarks we have been hearing and obtaining?

I only focused on the Transparency Index, since Buhari no free me hear word
I'm pightin kworaption

spectroscopic:
OIL, the reason for some wanting Nigerians to stick together for life, is finite. I propose that if necessary, as an incentive, a formula to share oil revenue among the separated States for 10 years can be arrived at, with international support and agreement. This will allow every group to financially develop themselves internally during the interlude. After 10 years, oil revenue reverts to the owners of each oil well.

Thankfully, we now know that oil is not the biggest deal in NIGERIA. Funds From Nigerians living overseas surpassed Oil & Gas earnings in 2018 at $25b against $18b from Oil.

Who are the Nigerians living overseas and sending these billions back to Nigeria? Igbo, Yoruba, Edo and the rest, in that order. You see, with this fact, Igbos will do well in their own country.

Igbos (South East) should exclude non-Igbo and unwilling Igbo South South people from their desired Biafran State, and make a strong case at the UN level for their own country.

It is a win-win for each region to live separately as independent countries. Assuming it is a ''Nigerian factor'' holding the country down. Separately, the North will do well with their massive land and agricultural potential. With Lagos, the West is easily the most developed part of Nigeria and will potentially keep that going. The Igbos are the most resilient Nigerians and have great human resource and acumen to survive and potentially develop themselves. The SS has oil as well as human resources to potentially develop.

Hehehehe

That last comment on the industriousness of the Igbos is the main reason ‘one Nigerianists’ don’t wanna let go of Ndigbo! It’s not just the oyel and gas that makes them rabid defenders of the status-quo; they want to continue tapping into the industriousness and resources of Ndigbo and other ethnicities in the Niger-Delta to develop their own regions....enter Forbes wealthiest...and generally shine as Nigerians joined at the hip like conjoined twins!

richidinho:
I only focused on the Transparency Index, since Buhari no free me hear word

I'm pightin kworaption

Each new country separated from Nigeria will likely fight corruption better than it is being fought now because for one, the intervening variables such as tribal and religious sentiments would have been whittled down, if not eliminated. For example, if there is corruption in Biafra country (Igbo only; almost Christians), they cannot blame it on anything else but the corrupt individuals.

SarkinYarki:
Buhari failed all round when compared to 2014 GEJ yet wicked mean like Tinubu supported such a man for selfish reason

Well they got the VP position...Lagos-Ibadan rail line.....and a new terminal at Lagos airport, so they’ll be looking at you like, ‘what is this one talking’! The fact more of them are smoking garri and groundnut and doing 1-0-1 is completely besides the point!

FG introduces austerity measures ON NOVEMBER 17, 2014

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/11/fg-introduces-austerity-measures/

...but in 2014, GEJ introduced austerity measures even though we earned more oil money in the history of Nigeria under GEJ and it still did not prevent him from declaring austerity measures in 2014 when oil was $77 per barrel.

So, what was the result under GEJ? We were still in darkness, no completed project, no road, no bridges, no quality healthcare, no railway, no stable electricity, nothing. Nothing but abandoned projects all over Nigeria, now we are completing projects that they abandoned for 30-40 years.

Today, Nigeria is starting and completing rail projects in less than 3 years, what they couldn't complete in 30 years.

Useless report without context and realities.

spectroscopic:


I hope that time comes sooner than later. Thank God for establishing death as a means to take mankind away from this ''wicked'' world

those who are in power are gradually pushing us to that area.

plaindealer:


...but in 2014, GEJ introduced austerity measures even though we earned more oil money in the history of Nigeria under GEJ and it still did not prevent him from declaring austerity measures in 2014 when oil was $77 per barrel.

So, what was the result under GEJ? We were still in darkness, no completed project, no road, no bridges, no quality healthcare, no railway, no stable electricity, nothing. Nothing but abandoned projects all over Nigeria, now we are completing projects that they abandoned for 30-40 years.

Today, Nigeria is starting and completing rail projects in less than 3 years, what they couldn't complete in 30 years.

Useless report without context and realities.

People like you who lack objectivity are the problem with Nigeria. What has this got to do with GEJ? Today, is Nigeria, overall, better than it was in 2014? NO.

If PDP takes over in 2023 will Nigeria be overall better then than now? I am not sure it will be. It is neither PDP nor APC. It is the nature of Nigeria to flounder and fail repeatedly. What's the solution? Break it into manageable bits.

spectroscopic:


People like you who lack objectivity are the problem with Nigeria. What has this got to do with GEJ? Today, is Nigeria, overall, better than it was in 2014? NO.

If PDP takes over in 2023 will Nigeria be overall better then than now? I am not sure it will be. It is neither PDP nor APC. It is the nature of Nigeria to flounder and fail repeatedly. What's the solution? Break it into manageable bits.

Being objective is stating the facts like I did. Counter my facts with your own facts if you can, obviously you can not.

Btw, was GEJ not the president of Nigeria or Nigeria did not earn more oil money under him in the history of Nigeria?

Objectivity is stating facts, not motions or sadness because they mentioned GEJ

plaindealer:




Being objective is stating the facts like I did. Counter my facts with your own facts if you can, obviously you can not.

Btw, was GEJ not the president of Nigeria or Nigeria did not earn more oil money under him in the history of Nigeria?

Objectivity is stating facts, not motions or sadness because they mentioned GEJ

My ''facts'' are all in the first post, as I concur with Bloomberg. This is my thread, remember? If GEJ was removed for poor performance and Buhari his replacement is giving Nigeria even poorer performance as indicated in the post, how is that a good thing for Nigeria?
I don't care about GEJ, Buhari, PDP or APC. I care that Nigeria is a failed state that needs to be fixed, including by separation if possible.

Just look at unemployment rate rising from 6% to 23%. A good amount of the population increase in Nigeria as of today is in the North.

That level of unemployment is directly correlated to increase in kidnapping, armed robbery and other violence that we now see in the North.

plaindealer:




Being objective is stating the facts like I did. Counter my facts with your own facts if you can, obviously you can not.

Btw, was GEJ not the president of Nigeria or Nigeria did not earn more oil money under him in the history of Nigeria?

Objectivity is stating facts, not motions or sadness because they mentioned GEJ

Did Buhari not borrow over 12 trillion Naira , if Buhari was working then the difference shouldn't be this wide , how do you meet a country at 6 %unemployment and throw it to 23 percent, how do you explain the slump in transparancy International rankings , how do you explain the worsening insecurity ? does that have to do with oil price too

SarkinYarki:

Did Buhari not borrow over 12 trillion Naira , if Buhari was working then the difference shouldn't be this wide , how do you meet a country at 6 %unemployment and throw it to 23 percent, how do you explain the slump in transparancy International rankings , how do you explain the worsening insecurity ? does that have to do with oil price too

I tire for that Plaindealer guy. I know he is defending this failure because he is angling for Osibanjo in 2023. I am even willing to give Osinbajo a chance to lead Nigeria in 2023. But I know that he will not make a difference because it is not even about him. It is about the foundation and structure of Nigeria, which is fundamentally faulty. For one, a president Osibanjo will not stop the North from breeding like rabbits while not matching population growth with productivity. He will not stop kidnapping and Boko Haram which Buhari has not stopped because these things have come to stay permanently, due to permanently unproductive population boom and joblessness. Did GEJ not build Almajiri schools for them? How did that fair, even under Buhari a northerner?

spectroscopic:


My ''facts'' are all in the first post, as I concur with Bloomberg. This is my thread, remember? If GEJ was removed for poor performance and Buhari his replacement is giving Nigeria even poorer performance as indicated in the post, how is that a good thing for Nigeria?
I don't care about GEJ, Buhari, PDP or APC. I care that Nigeria is a failed state that needs to be fixed, including by separation if possible.

Your opinion even though flawed and myopic. Nigeria is doing way way better and we've achieved more and scored better performance in the last 4 years with less.

Where is the sense and sane rational in saying that the administration that earned and spent more money without any meaningful achievement performed better than the one that's achieving more with less?

Where is the sense and sane rational in saying that the administration earned over $100 per barrel and declared austerity measures with $77 per barrel oil earnings with nothing to show is better than the one that survived with $27 per barrel and even achieved more?

I was actually expecting you to show us the so called performance and realities on the ground in 2014 like power, health, roads, bridges and things that really mattered to Nigerians.

SarkinYarki:

Did Buhari not borrow over 12 trillion Naira , if Buhari was working then the difference shouldn't be this wide , how do you meet a country at 6 %unemployment and throw it to 23 percent, how do you explain the slump in transparancy International rankings , how do you explain the worsening insecurity ? does that have to do with oil price too

1. I see nothing wrong with borrowing as long as it's used to beneficial infrastructures, programs and policies. We know such loans finished the projects past administrations borrowed money to complete, but abandoned the projects after stealing the funds.

2. We borrowed to start and complete Lagos Ibadan rail in less than 3 years, we borrowed to complete the ones they abandoned for 30 years in Warri/itakpe.

3. In less than 2 years in 2012 alone, GEJ borrowed N2 trillion, on top of the several trillions they borrowed, stole and diverted, but they left office without any completed major project.

4. GEJ borrowed to pay workers salary until his last days in office.

5. Abandoning thousands of projects all over Nigeria means loss of jobs, no not tackling electricity means we can not creat jobs or progress. These are the issues facing Nigeria, not getting excited over some meaningless numbers that doesn't address anything.

plaindealer:




Your opinion even though flawed and myopic. Nigeria is doing way way better and we've achieved more and scored better performance in the last 4 years with less.

Where is the sense and sane rational in saying that the administration that earned and spent more money without any meaningful achievement performed better than the one that's achieving more with less?

Where is the sense and sane rational in saying that the administration earned over $100 per barrel and declared austerity measures with $77 per barrel oil earnings with nothing to show is better than the one that survived with $27 per barrel and even achieved more?

I was actually expecting you to show us the so called performance and realities on the ground in 2014 like power, health, roads, bridges and things that really mattered to Nigerians.

plz stop, stop, stop this nonsense.

nigeria x not better now.
Its Super worse.

stop all these lies.

If Nigeria is half as goodd as you put it we wont have this Bloomberg piece nor 23% unemployment.

Stop been delusional....please