MrMou: You & Bloomberg are talking trash! Why 2014? Why didn't they compare the data right before Ebelemi handed over which is May 2015 to where he met it in 2011 & where it is now? They won't cuz they know GDP growth was left at just 2.35% in May 2015 as against the 7.68 that Ebelemi met it They won't tell you because just before hand over in May 2015, FDI & foreign reserves were plunged (they're higher now than where Buhari met it). Why didn't they also tell you what oil prices (which your economy is practically based on) was from 2011 to 2015 & that it plunged to just $29/barrel within Buhari first 6 months?
Plunged because they knew an incompetent barawo was taking over. Was it not because your Bubu knew about the plunging oil prices since 2013 that made him promise to fix oil prices Blames, blames and blames instead of doing what he was employed, by Nigerian voters, to do. Which kain integrity person dey do that?
Collynzo9: Among all the clueless diatribe he spewed in his interview with Channels TV, this one caught my attention most.
Channels Presenter: How do you intend to manage the economy in the face of dwindling oil price.
Buhari: first we will stabilize the oil market and run an accountable govt.
MrMou: You & Bloomberg are talking trash! Why 2014? Why didn't they compare the data right before Ebelemi handed over which is May 2015 to where he met it in 2011 & where it is now? They won't cuz they know GDP growth was left at just 2.35% in May 2015 as against the 7.68 that Ebelemi met it They won't tell you because just before hand over in May 2015, FDI & foreign reserves were plunged (they're higher now than where Buhari met it). Why didn't they also tell you what oil prices (which your economy is practically based on) was from 2011 to 2015 & that it plunged to just $29/barrel within Buhari first 6 months?
2014 has better economic index indicators yet world bank ease of doing business and economic forum perception index appeared to be better under President Buhari with all his negative economic indexes, evidence that 2014 indexes was rigged against Jonathan, yet, it has become worst under this administration.
I don't think it's as simple as the article would like us to believe. We simply are not competitive enough to operate without some form of protection. You really think the average Nigerian manufacturer paying through his nose for diesel to power his gen, and as well as 911 trucks to transport his goods (no thanks to poor road network) can compete against far more efficient systems elsewhere?
Take rice for instance. With the banning of importation, I'm not sure anyone would doubt there's been a remarkable improvement in local production (though the actual increase is in contention). At least I was in Ebonyi and can testify to upsurge in abakaliki rice.
Unless and until we deal with infrastructure problem that is seriously hampering business environment here, any attempt to open our borders to unrestricted imports would lead to immediate collapse our local manufacturers. That's for sure
Thanks for your reply.
I did appreciate some points you made but noticed a fundamental contradiction when you mentioned rice.
Nigeria has no comparative advantage in rice production. Only 3 countries have that comparative advantage and they are Thailand, Vietnam and India hss they have large acreages of the best land for rice production.
Nigeria should focus resources on goods it has comparative advantage in. Shea butter has the ability of generating up $2bn in export. That alone can cover the amount expended on rice imports if the duty on it was low.
Countries do best when they focus resoitces in areas they have comparative advantage. Opening the borders to trade will compel the country to do just that as companies will be run out of business if they did otherwise
Facts don't write themselves, there's been no increase in non-oil revenue between 2014 and 2018, yet the country has tanked on all positive indices, if you as much as complain their minions will be shouting rice farming, where does it reflect here?
History will record this period as Nigeria's Darkest Ages. Viva Buhari
spectroscopic: Bloomberg compares Nigeria 2014 and 2018-hard data
Nigeria is a much more important country than most people in the U.S. probably realize. With more than 190 million people, it’s Africa’s largest country by far (Ethiopia, the second-largest, has a little more than half as many). And with a fertility rate of about 5.5 children per woman, among the world’s highest, Nigeria is only going to grow in importance — by the century’s end, the country is projected to have almost 800 million people, almost twice as many as the U.S. by then.
But as things stand, this African giant is failing to create the prosperity that will sustain that future population. Its oil-dependent economy has struggled after oil prices plunged five years ago. The number of Nigerians in extreme poverty — generally defined as living on less than $1.90 a day — is estimated to be increasing by six every second.
Meanwhile, the country’s economic institutions are failing, with rising unemployment and debt levels. A recent Bloomberg Opinion editorial laid out the grim numbers:
In the long run, Nigeria needs to wean itself from dependence on oil by spending energy revenues on education, health and infrastructure. But that plan might take decades to bear fruit in the best of circumstances. In the short run, Nigeria needs jobs. One of the best way to create those jobs would be to increase international trade. And the quickest way to boost trade would be to join the African Continental Free Trade Area, the planned free trade zone of the African Union (an organization dedicated to forging closer cooperation between African states). The AfCFTA now includes 52 countries and more than $2 trillion of economic activity. Entering that agreement, which would eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods, would open up plenty of new markets for Nigerian-made products.
But Nigeria’s manufacturers see the AfCFTA as more of a threat than an opportunity. Frank Jacobs, president of the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria, recently declared that “When they open our borders for all manner of products to come into this country, most of our industries will be out of business.” The Nigeria Labor Congress, an umbrella organization of trade unions, called the AfCFTA an “extremely dangerous and radioactive neo-liberal policy initiative.” As a result of this political opposition, Nigeria has balked at joining the agreement. There is some justification for reluctance. Though the current accord is mainly about reducing tariffs between African member states, the AU plans to follow it up with a push for a customs union and a single currency. This latter step would be a bad idea. As Europe discovered so disastrously in the financial crisis, a currency union can exacerbate local recessions, since it makes it impossible for countries with weak economies to depreciate their currencies and become more competitive. A monetary union without fiscal integration makes sovereign-debt crises like the one in Greece much more likely and damaging. Africa should avoid making the same mistakes that Europe made. And Nigeria, especially, should be wary of a currency union — its natural resource exports tend to push up the value of its currency, the naira, making non-oil exports less competitive, meaning the country needs to push its currency down in order to restore balance. But signing on to the AfCFTA wouldn't oblige Nigeria to adopt the later stages of the AU plan. For now, the priority should be opening the country to trade. Nigeria now is highly protectionist. Its list of prohibited or restricted imports is long, including items such as carpets, shoes, handbags and most types of furniture. The government also makes a large number of imports, such as textiles and clothing, ineligible for foreign exchange at the central bank’s official window, making it harder to import these items.
In her book “The Next Factory of the World: How Chinese Investment Is Reshaping Africa,” McKinsey & Co. researcher Irene Yuan Sun argues that these import restrictions have damaged Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. The obstacles to importing textiles have made it difficult for Nigeria to develop a competitive clothing-export industry of the type now growing in Ethiopia. And the impediments to importing labor-intensive manufactured goods like furniture, shoes and carpets, though it has shielded Nigeria’s manufacturers in the short term, has had the long-term effect of preventing them from learning how to compete in international markets. This is a drag on growth. Labor-intensive manufacturing is still almost certainly the best and quickest path for nations to escape mass poverty. Journalist Joe Studwell argues in “How Asia Works” that exporting raises productivity and encourages the import and adoption of advanced foreign technology. And Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik argues that promoting exports helps countries to discover what they’re good at doing, allowing them to invest with confidence and to establish a stable niche in the global economy. Maintaining an insular, protectionist stance is often tempting for a country as large as Nigeria, whose manufacturers are always clamoring for the prize of a captive domestic market. But this approach merely provides a crutch that ultimately preserves industrial weakness. Instead of hiding behind trade barriers, Nigeria should focus on aggressively promoting manufactured exports. Gaining access to nearby African markets would be one step toward doing that. Courting foreign-direct investment, depreciating the currency and pushing companies to export are other important steps. And in the long run, investments in education, health and infrastructure will make Nigeria an attractive platform for labor-intensive manufacturing. This is the giant African country’s best hope for escaping a looming tsunami of poverty.
plaindealer: Look at the silly and goofy writer, this is his solution, we should build aircraft carrier
Why I'm I even taking this Bloomberg loser seriously ?
It's either this guy is overestimating Nigeria's present capabilities or he's just trolling. Nigeria which currently can't build a simple conventional boat is the one to build an aircraft carrier? I can see he's joking. As for this thread, I don't expect Buhari supporters to agree with the fact that Nigeria is worse off at present. Like I've always spoken; it will only get worse. When the foundation is faulty, what can the builder do? Nigeria needs her system to be changed entirely or she's broken down into bits for better management since we can't continue like this.
spectroscopic: OIL, the reason for some wanting Nigerians to stick together for life, is finite. I propose that if necessary, as an incentive, a formula to share oil revenue among the separated countries for 10 years can be arrived at, with international support and agreement. This will allow every group to financially develop themselves internally during the interlude. After 10 years, oil revenue reverts to the owners of each oil well.
Thankfully, we now know that oil is not the biggest deal in NIGERIA. Funds From Nigerians living overseas surpassed Oil & Gas earnings in 2018 at $25b against $18b from Oil.
Who are the Nigerians living overseas and sending these billions back to Nigeria? Igbo, Yoruba, Edo and the rest, in that order. You see, with this fact, Igbos will do well in their own country.
Igbos (South East) should exclude non-Igbo and unwilling Igbo South South people from their desired Biafran State, and make a strong case at the UN level for their own country.
It is a win-win for each region to live separately as independent countries. Assuming it is a ''Nigerian factor'' holding the country down. Separately, the North will do well with their massive land and agricultural potential. With Lagos, the West is easily the most developed part of Nigeria and will potentially keep that going. The Igbos are the most resilient Nigerians and have great human resource and acumen to survive and potentially develop themselves. The SS has oil as well as human resources to potentially develop.
spectroscopic: 800 million people in Nigeria in 2099 (century’s end)
For a country as extremely poorly managed as Nigeria, that will be the melting pot of poverty and disease
Thank God I will be long dead and gone by then.
Anybody who loves Nigeria should be asking for one thing, now: a STRONG LAW to curb childbirth to no more than 2 per family.
Otherwise, and in fact, it should be divided so that each group can manage their population growth and chart their own economic course at their own pace, peacefully for some. Nigeria is too intractable and unwieldy to manage. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know nothing will change anytime soon. It does not matter whether APC or PDP.
If they don't wanna change, restructure or divide then LET IT BURN!. I personally have accomplished my plan to birth my offspring outa this shitty Nigerian shores.
Guestlander: Every subject is an opportunity to advance your separatist agenda. If the rain is too much today, separate us. Palm wine is not available at the joint, separate us.
You don't want separation? Can't you see the handwriting on the wall? Balkanization of the shithole is the only viable way forward.
I have never historically been an advocate of separation (look me up here on Nairaland) and really don't care if you separate or not. I am PERSONALLY not affected in any way with what goes on in Nigeria. But recent developments and my gut tell me that separation is better than what I am seeing now and what is being predicted for the future. Hence, I am changing my mind. I have proposed a formula that could be agreeable and less rancorous to everyone, since oil appears to be the issue militating against reasonable and peaceful separation. I even proposed the SE not include any non-SE region in their proposed country. I believe individually the different regions will be better off. I assume you are Yoruba. Why do you not want to manage your own destiny yourself?
If you hav brain and very conversant with economic report in 2018 and 2019 you will realize that only 2 states in Yoruba land is financing over 22 states in Nigeria that includes some of ur potopoto states despite not even producing oil
Let me quickly bust ur bubble, SW is the most rich and self sufficient nation in Nigeria,
In term of Agriculture we have vast of arable land etc Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo
In term of Natural resources we are massively endowed beyond reasonable doubt e.g Ogun,Lagos nd Oyo nd Ekiti
In term of Industry we ar d only region Nigeria depends on so need to even mention anything as yu already know that SW dominate industry power of Nigeria
SW is not in all ramifications in same class with any Regions in Nigeria
Ur potopoto is b nothing to us thats we dont rush to settle in polluted potopoto region nd ur people rush in masses to settle where they can hav a better life
plaindealer: Look at the silly and goofy writer, this is his solution, we should build aircraft carrier
Why I'm I even taking this Bloomberg loser seriously ?
It is clear you are grossly ignorant and have no idea how nations develop. You only needs to sit back, get some history books and read.
What the fellow was trying to put across in no uncertain terms is that this country needs a big, themed, national, industrial focus that will kick start the economy just as the second world war coalesced the will of the American people around industrialization and made them a super power just a decade after the 'Great Recession' but like most Nigerians these things are just too compkex for you to understand. You rather live in a world of sentiment. The sentiment that makes this country worse every passing year.
The dangerous and costly space race of the 50's, 60's and 70's and the technologies derived from it has ensured that America has been the dominant technological power for 50 years when it was not always so. Silicon valley owes its existence to the battles with the Russians back then. Today America is a magnet for every technological visionaire, a place where their ideas and dreams can come true. Every one with an idea wants to go there to implement them because of the possibilities unlocked since the 40's and 50's.
Today a South African, Canadian immigrant called Elon Musk has set his signts to dominate the internet by proposing to launch 4,000 sattelites into low earth orbit over the next few years. When this people speak, just shut it and listen. When the fellow talks about building an aircraft carrier, better sit back and think deeply about all what he says and what it means in the larger context. It may be the only way out for this tragedy called Nigeria.
It's either this guy is overestimating Nigeria's present capabilities or he's just trolling. Nigeria which currently can't build a simple conventional boat is the one to build an aircraft carrier? I can see he's joking. As for this thread, I don't expect Buhari supporters to agree with the fact that Nigeria is worse off at present. Like I've always spoken; it will only get worse. When the foundation is faulty, what can the builder do? Nigeria needs her system to be changed entirely or she's broken down into bits for better management since we can't continue like this.
Well, everyone has a different view when they describe the elephant but the essence of what he is saying is that for a country to develop it must seek to outperform itself by organising society around near impossible taskings as a basis for its survival. That is the way I see it. America did not wake up, strolled to the supermarket to get their first carrier. They were in a recession when the second world war started and needed carriers to survive the Japanese invasion. But through bonds and the sheer will of the people built an awesome industrial capacity which spurred them to economic prosperity and world dominance long after the war ended.
What he is saying is that hardship should not be terminal and defeatist but by identifying big prospects, leadership can galvanize and motivate the people into development way beyond their capacity and this can potentially be definitive for generations to come. Ask yourself what great task or demand has your government put on you that would transform your country for good and make it great..... none. They demand nothing because they have nothing to offer. No ideas, no inspiration, no vision.
Today, Nigeria is for all intents and purposes in a recession and needs for example, electric power to spur industrialization. What does leadership do (as we have heard)... take a 1 billion dollar loan to finance a dam. Can you say this is visionary leadership. Can you say this is inspirational leadership. Can you say this is leadership that can get things done. What if China becomes an enemy/adversary tomorrow, what happens.
But do we have the capacity to provide power on our own, yes we do. Do we have the resources, yes we do. But it is up to leadership to extract these from the country and to do that you have to be visionary, passionate and enlightened. It is not easy, but the process of development was not easy for any nation you dare to envy today.
If you hav brain and very conversant with economic report in 2018 and 2019 you will realize that only 2 states in Yoruba land is financing over 22 states in Nigeria that includes some of ur potopoto states despite not even producing oil
Let me quickly bust ur bubble, SW is the most rich and self sufficient nation in Nigeria,
In term of Agriculture we have vast of arable land etc Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo
In term of Natural resources we are massively endowed beyond reasonable doubt e.g Ogun,Lagos nd Oyo nd Ekiti
In term of Industry we ar d only region Nigeria depends on so need to even mention anything as yu already know that SW dominate industry power of Nigeria
SW is not in all ramifications in same class with any Regions in Nigeria
Ur potopoto is b nothing to us thats we dont rush to settle in polluted potopoto region nd ur people rush in masses to settle where they can hav a better life
He's clamouring that every region manage their resources. If you're financing the entire country, wouldn't you prefer to use those same resources to manage only your region? Why are you pushing to remain in this unholy union?
Esseite: Non oil revenue to GDP still 4% in both periods....
Where is the impact of the Agricultural innovations and benchmarks we have been hearing and obtaining?
Perhaps if you keyed into it, non-oil revenue could be 4.0001% New Rice Mills are being set up but fewer people are going into rice farming. The reason for the initial failure of Dangote Tomoto factory was that there wasn't enough locally farmed tomato to feed the 1200 tons per day processing plant. It is PEOPLE that make a country great, not Government.
I did appreciate some points you made but noticed a fundamental contradiction when you mentioned rice.
Nigeria has no comparative advantage in rice production. Only 3 countries have that comparative advantage and they are Thailand, Vietnam and India hss they have large acreages of the best land for rice production.
Nigeria should focus resources on goods it has comparative advantage in. Shea butter has the ability of generating up $2bn in export. That alone can cover the amount expended on rice imports if the duty on it was low.
Countries do best when they focus resoitces in areas they have comparative advantage. Opening the borders to trade will compel the country to do just that as companies will be run out of business if they did otherwise
Nigeria does not have comparative advantage to produce rice abi? Yet we are the leading rice producer in Africa now. Sir you are not correct. See your economic theory is different from reality on ground Sir. Nigeria has land, has labour and so on and you are saying we can't. So the whole world should depend on the three countries alone? Even if we can't export our rice and we consume it alone within the country its better than importing. We have the potential and that's why we overtook Egypt in the production of rice. Thank God the administration has again ban textile... sooner we will the outcome. You said Buhari pegged naira against dollar... why are you against him on this? So he shud not and then get into trouble. GEJ left around $27b or so before leaving and now our forex has grown to over $40b... so what are you saying?
That statistics up there is not accurate totally. So unemployment rate is 6% in 2014 abi? We know non oil revenue give about 4% to forex but not GDP. That statistics is given a wrong info. They shouldn't put GDP with it. It should be forex. Oil contributes 10%/12% to our GDP and the rest is about 90%/88%.
Nigeria is not doing well economically simply because of these three things.
1. Electricity 2. Refinery 3. Insecurity
Fix these three and watch the country boom. If we have electricity 247, our business will boom. If we no longer import refined oil again, it will help our economy. And fixing insecurity caps it all. Good and secure environment to do business. Nigeria has every potential to lead Africa and the world if we can change our mindset and install a good leader.
Perhaps if you keyed into it, non-oil revenue could be 4.0001% New Rice Mills are being set up but fewer people are going into rice farming. The reason for the initial failure of Dangote Tomoto factory was that there wasn't enough locally farmed tomato to feed the 1200 tons per day processing plant. It is PEOPLE that make a country great, not Government.
God bless you for this.
Infact what that statistics is saying is misinforming people. They actually meant 4% of Forex and not GDP. There are many things we don't export in the country which we consume locally and there is nothing wrong with that. The only thing is that we just need to increase our production and export more. Non - oil stuff contributes like 88%/90% to our GDP.
My own is that I don't see a Nigeria by next 100 years if things continue this way. The revolution that will come will either divide the country or consume everyone. We are quiet today because many can still afford a meal in a day. When the real hunger and hardship comes, a soldiers gun will be likened to a stick and people will fear nothing again. I pray we don't degenerate to that level.
Do you know the humongous amount of ibos who own massive real estate in Lagos?
Not a problem. Igbos own humongous estates in the US too. Civilized people don't seize other people's legally acquired properties in their country when no crime is committed. They let the owners sell at market price or rent out and you give them visa to visit and manage their investments. They pay taxes as you determine for them. We are talking about a mutually agreed upon separation. Not war. Igbos will not separate from Nigeria under conditions that will bring about war and huge losses.
If you hav brain and very conversant with economic report in 2018 and 2019 you will realize that only 2 states in Yoruba land is financing over 22 states in Nigeria that includes some of ur potopoto states despite not even producing oil
Let me quickly bust ur bubble, SW is the most rich and self sufficient nation in Nigeria,
In term of Agriculture we have vast of arable land etc Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo
In term of Natural resources we are massively endowed beyond reasonable doubt e.g Ogun,Lagos nd Oyo nd Ekiti
In term of Industry we ar d only region Nigeria depends on so need to even mention anything as yu already know that SW dominate industry power of Nigeria
SW is not in all ramifications in same class with any Regions in Nigeria
Ur potopoto is b nothing to us thats we dont rush to settle in polluted potopoto region nd ur people rush in masses to settle where they can hav a better life
That's precisely the point. Why do you not want to enjoy your wealth alone in your own country? If after separation Igbos try to come to your rich Oduduwa country, you can either deny them visa or charge them high taxes than your citizens. It is foolish to have all these things you claimed and not want to use them to develop Yorubaland excludively but instead share with others. It does not make sense to me.
Well, everyone has a different view when they describe the elephant but the essence of what he is saying is that for a country to develop it must seek to outperform itself by organising society around near impossible taskings as a basis for its survival. That is the way I see it. America did not wake up, strolled to the supermarket to get their first carrier. They were in a recession when the second world war started and needed carriers to survive the Japanese invasion. But through bonds and the sheer will of the people built an awesome industrial capacity which spurred them to economic prosperity and world dominance long after the war ended.
What he is saying is that hardship should not be terminal and defeatist but by identifying big prospects, leadership can galvanize and motivate the people into development way beyond their capacity and this can potentially be definitive for generations to come. Ask yourself what great task or demand has your government put on you that would transform your country for good and make it great..... none. They demand nothing because they have nothing to offer. No ideas, no inspiration, no vision.
Today, Nigeria is for all intents and purposes in a recession and needs for example, electric power to spur industrialization. What does leadership do (as we have heard)... take a 1 billion dollar loan to finance a dam. Can you say this is visionary leadership. Can you say this is inspirational leadership. Can you say this is leadership that can get things done. What if China becomes an enemy/adversary tomorrow, what happens.
But do we have the capacity to provide power on our own, yes we do. Do we have the resources, yes we do. But it is up to leadership to extract these from the country and to do that you have to be visionary, passionate and enlightened. It is not easy, but the process of development was not easy for any nation you dare to envy today.
Well, I don't beat about the bush. The reality facing us today is that the priorities of those running Nigeria does not reflect any seriousness at progressing so why the possibility of harnessing the energy from the present hardship to build is there, the probability of such is close to zero. We live here and have studied the politics of regression at play. Let's see how it pans out in the next few years to come. Meanwhile, your population is increasing at a fast rate and you can't feed them. Think about the consequences of that.
...but in 2014, GEJ introduced austerity measures even though we earned more oil money in the history of Nigeria under GEJ and it still did not prevent him from declaring austerity measures in 2014 when oil was $77 per barrel.
So, what was the result under GEJ? We were still in darkness, no completed project, no road, no bridges, no quality healthcare, no railway, no stable electricity, nothing. Nothing but abandoned projects all over Nigeria, now we are completing projects that they abandoned for 30-40 years.
Today, Nigeria is starting and completing rail projects in less than 3 years, what they couldn't complete in 30 years.
Useless report without context and realities.
Still be fighting with ur conscience... U think GEJ is suffering any of these brunt.. He is just enjoying his life now... If u think life under buhari is bbetter than life under good luck... Keep on praising buhari... We are all in it together.., at least wen they eventually make fuel 200 Maura per litre... That's s price u and ur family members will buy... Or ur family that has lost his job ... So keep praising buhari and be dymystyfying GEJ that have u guys o Power on a platter of Gold.
fx45: You don't want separation? Can't you see the handwriting on the wall? Balkanization of the shithole is the only viable way forward.
Thanks for your understanding.
I spit on Yoruba Muslims...
Your forefathers created this Nigeria after tearing up the independence constitution. A constitution fashioned after the Canadian and the Australian constitution. If you want to spit on anyone, go back in time and spit on the people who tore our constitution up.
Still be fighting with ur conscience... U think GEJ is suffering any of these brunt.. He is just enjoying his life now... If u think life under buhari is bbetter than life under good luck... Keep on praising buhari... We are all in it together.., at least wen they eventually make fuel 200 Maura per litre... That's s price u and ur family members will buy... Or ur family that has lost his job ... So keep praising buhari and be dymystyfying GEJ that have u guys o Power on a platter of Gold.
Next levels...v
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I debate facts, not emotions, sentiments and tantrums.
