₦airaland Forum

Gnaeusmagnus:
OK

Here is the reason why the reserve is falling, and by the way, if you think I am defending Buhari, you have missed the point of my discussion. Like most Nigerian things about the economy, Buhari is a symptom not the cause.

1.Oil prices are chronically low. And infact, they are set to keep falling with the corona virus thing happening.

2.For Nigeria to survive, we need oil to be at a certain price called the breakeven price...in brief, the price where we have paid all the production costs, and have enough left over. As at 2012, it was $120. Today it is at $139 per barrel. Oil since 2015 has not risen above $75, and is now around $60

3.Because of the low oil price, since 2015, when our Bubu took over, oil has been staying low. Infact, we have been losing anywhere between $60-90 per barrel of oil sold because the oil price has not been high enough.

4.Initally, our reserves in 2015 were at $32bn, then they went down to $28 billion. Then Bubu managed to raise it to above $40 billion.

5.The problem is, oil prices have been remaining very low. In an ideal situation, you wait till oil prices go up, with the hope that the economy stabilizes. Now, it hasn't gone up....so we have to start dependeing on the reserves.

6. Why are we taking loans...because the oil price has been below the breakeven price...which means that we must take loans...or by now we would collapse.

7. The only way out is simple

. We cut fuel subsides...money saved....reserves grow

. We cut power subsides...money saved...reserves grow.

. Hopefully investment flows in, meaning we have enough resources to fuel our economic growth...which means we would eventually, after a period of hardship, become a industrial nation, and earn FAR more than we ever earned from oil. Then things like restructuring, and even Biafra would look more feasible.

8.The truth is that Buhari, like most Nigerian leaders, cannot take that decsion because

-it means higher fuel prices, and higher power prices
-it means potential economic crisis and inflation


so, we keep on wasting money on welfare projkects, while we keep borrowing to keep our heads afloat.

Mind, most African countries are like this, which is why many of them are so broke. We rely on raw materials and share the income they bring...meanwhile, we don't control their prices. That's how it has been since 1960...and why restructuring now, and even going back to agruculture won't save us.

That is why our reserves keep on going down.

NigeriaIsDoomed:
Please never you ever in your life compare the lifeless thing with Abacha. As terrible as Abacha was Nigeria fared well unlike what we have now.
Go and read about the economy of Nigeria under Abacha.
Buhari, has always been a dull and lifeless creature right from birth.
How he was able to scam foolish Nigerians to come back to power remains a mystery till date.


Abacha's achievements:On the economic end, Nigeria attained unprecedented economic achievements with him, with an overwhelming increase in the country's foreign exchange reserves from $494 million in 1993 to $9.6 billion by the middle of 1997, and a reduction of the external debt of Nigeria from $36 billion in 1993 to $27 billion by 1997. He halted all the controversial privatization programmes initiated by Babangida his predecessor and reduced the inflation rate from the 54 percent he inherited to 8.5 percent by 1998, while oil was sold at an average of $15 per barrel.
He increased fuel price just once in his four-and-a-half years in office and set up the Petroleum (Special) Trust Fund, which was widely acknowledged to have performed well in infrastructural development and intervention programmes in education, health and water.

poiZon:
U r talking bullshit.
Cbn has stated why reserves keeps going down u r talking of oil price.
Is oil d only foreign exchange earner in nigeria?

SpecialAgent:
And when I said something similar at a state labour meeting during the minimum wage bruhaha, those comrades said I should shut up

You see ehn..that minimum wage is a real trap for what's to come, vat increase, fuel price increase & devaluation of d naira

Racoon:
Borrowing to service debts, while the naira continue to depreciate against the dollar while Nigeria's foreign reserves continued to decline.

Are the people in this senseless APC government really thinking about the forex risks associated with further increase in our foreign debts/loans?

The translation forex risk & associated crippling effects are unimaginable.It is simply the reason why our interest payments has increased yet they're not tired of borrowing.

Gnaeusmagnus:
First, thank you for your opinion about my opinion being rubbish. I am glad someone was thoughtful enough to offer his or her thots on my ramblings...

Having said that

1.CBN , according to the article is in essence spending money to buffer the naira in the wake of low revenue inflows. That's what many oil dependent countries do (Saudi went through $100 billion of its reserves just to keep its currency strong once oil prices began to fall).

2.Oil accounts for at least 80-90% of our revenues. That's a lot. (and don't be decieved by Bubu and co talking about us being uber rice producers. That can't happen until we thoroughly mechanize our farming in this country...plus science)...so oil is in essence our main foreign exchange earner...

3,Which is why the price of oil matters to Nigeria...and to many other countries, including Russia (which isn't as oil dependent...but oil is still a big part of its income)...and a host of others.

4.Back to 1...unless oil prices increase...there won't be cash to pump up the reserve.

(You think I am defending Buhari, that's why you are attacking me. The truth is...we rely on oil ..whose prices of the products we don't control...which is why any decrease in prices affects our economy badly. We were there in the 1980's ...and I'm old enough to recall how bad things were back then).

DexterousOne:
You are tacitly defending him
It's either you don't realise it
Or you pretend not to realise if.

What kind of idiot runs an economy like a cartel?

Boosting the international image and confidence in Nigeria's business space will boost our FOREX well well even without oil influence
That was the game OBJ played that paid off in his second term, but this cow lover Has no sense

CSTR2:
It would take someone in moghalu calibre to salvage this country from the damage that buhari and his administration have inflicted.

If you elect anyhow person after him, I pity una.

Izongdave:
Speaking as an APC supporter, we don't need foreign reserve, we need local ones.....

NigeriaIsDoomed:
We warned them. Abeg make them devalue again so that when we bring obodo oyibo currency come back e go plenty for naira.

Gnaeusmagnus:
Moghalu put himself forward for Nigerians...and Nigerians, even his own clansmen, said NO.
That's Nigeria for you. Grumble about the bad leaders to day, then on election day, still vote for them.

Gnaeusmagnus:
OK

Here is the reason why the reserve is falling, and by the way, if you think I am defending Buhari, you have missed the point of my discussion. Like most Nigerian things about the economy, Buhari is a symptom not the cause.

1.Oil prices are chronically low. And infact, they are set to keep falling with the corona virus thing happening.

2.For Nigeria to survive, we need oil to be at a certain price called the breakeven price...in brief, the price where we have paid all the production costs, and have enough left over. As at 2012, it was $120. Today it is at $139 per barrel. Oil since 2015 has not risen above $75, and is now around $60

3.Because of the low oil price, since 2015, when our Bubu took over, oil has been staying low. Infact, we have been losing anywhere between $60-90 per barrel of oil sold because the oil price has not been high enough.

4.Initally, our reserves in 2015 were at $32bn, then they went down to $28 billion. Then Bubu managed to raise it to above $40 billion.

5.The problem.

Drabeey:
The truth is that Nigeria economy is in a state of emergency now and this is due to Nigerians. I tend not to believe anymore that the government is our problem. No! We are our own problems per say.

For Example:

If we have not voted Buhari, things would have been better abi?
We are all liars. See an average Nigerian wants to blame his predicaments on the government. Whereas who is called government gaan

E je ka bara wa so oto oro (let's us tell ourselves the truth jare)

Now see this one trying to reap from Nigeria's problem.



Yes we voted them to make a difference.... YenYenYen

Tell me one Past president, governor, even LG councillor that us not richer than prior his tenure (except they go bankrupt maybe through wanting to clinge to power). Tell me!
Even those we call founding fathers lived a luxury life when they had the mantle that most of their children today still live affordable houses compared to other Nigerians... Is it the salary they earn as public office holders or many kick backs
I stand corrected on that!

Is that Kyari man not a Nigerian?
Tinubu,Osinbajo, Buhari, Jonathan, Obasanjo... Just mention one saint who doesn't have family and well-wishers who really voted for him (if you know you know)

As a Nigerian judge yourself, if any of your family and friends become anything meaningful in Nigeria and maybe he/she allow you to head one coded office that can ordinarily without stealing make you rich for only four Years. Tell me what you'd do, yes you! Iwo ni mon bawi joor

Well our problem is not just one thing, even the media won't tell the truth.
See news of foreign exchange like WW3 news. Wetin happen?

Naira drop, gain, drop again....

Na today we know say Naira no get value?



See 'on a normal baze' een, Naija Economy just no sweet at all, but WHOEVER THINKS BUHARI IS THE CAUSE should summon me to a public debate ( see My eyes yaff clear, i am now a Nigerian devoid of any Political, religious or Tribal Affiliation). If you hate the truth HATE it.

Dem ban Rice people dey shout?
A whole Nigeria can't produce Good rice without stone... But if we no start with this, how are we going to ever export rice just to DIVERSIFY our economy?

No be one of the cause Naira devaluation be say we too dey import pass wetin dey commot, Abi? Economists in the house

See our problem is so interwoven that i even don't believe if Nigeria go separate ways, we would still get it right. I don't believe that.

Corruption is in our gene
It is the food we eat
The water we drink
Infact the air we inhale too! Hence why would majority of Nigerians abroad comport immediately they leave the country?

The country is FkdUP, BIG TIME!

Political history of Nigeria sef no sweet and the only generation that can make a difference are been devided through Religious and Tribal intolerance.

...but im still a Nigerian and a patriot, come what may!


Drabeey was Here

Gnaeusmagnus:
OK

Here is the reason why the reserve is falling, and by the way, if you think I am defending Buhari, you have missed the point of my discussion. Like most Nigerian things about the economy, Buhari is a symptom not the cause.

1.Oil prices are chronically low. And infact, they are set to keep falling with the corona virus thing happening.

2.For Nigeria to survive, we need oil to be at a certain price called the breakeven price...in brief, the price where we have paid all the production costs, and have enough left over. As at 2012, it was $120. Today it is at $139 per barrel. Oil since 2015 has not risen above $75, and is now around $60

3.Because of the low oil price, since 2015, when our Bubu took over, oil has been staying low. Infact, we have been losing anywhere between $60-90 per barrel of oil sold because the oil price has not been high enough.

4.Initally, our reserves in 2015 were at $32bn, then they went down to $28 billion. Then Bubu managed to raise it to above $40 billion.

5.The problem is, oil prices have been remaining very low. In an ideal situation, you wait till oil prices go up, with the hope that the economy stabilizes. Now, it hasn't gone up....so we have to start dependeing on the reserves.

6. Why are we taking loans...because the oil price has been below the breakeven price...which means that we must take loans...or by now we would collapse.

7. The only way out is simple

. We cut fuel subsides...money saved....reserves grow

. We cut power subsides...money saved...reserves grow.

. Hopefully investment flows in, meaning we have enough resources to fuel our economic growth...which means we would eventually, after a period of hardship, become a industrial nation, and earn FAR more than we ever earned from oil. Then things like restructuring, and even Biafra would look more feasible.

8.The truth is that Buhari, like most Nigerian leaders, cannot take that decsion because

-it means higher fuel prices, and higher power prices
-it means potential economic crisis and inflation


so, we keep on wasting money on welfare projkects, while we keep borrowing to keep our heads afloat.

Mind, most African countries are like this, which is why many of them are so broke. We rely on raw materials and share the income they bring...meanwhile, we don't control their prices. That's how it has been since 1960...and why restructuring now, and even going back to agruculture won't save us.

That is why our reserves keep on going down.

MODIFIED

For those who read this and think I am defending Buahri....sorry, I am not. The problem in breif is that our economy is tied to the price of oil. And we do not control that price. That is a big part of the reason why we are in the mess today.

Nigerian leaders, Bubu inclusive, have known the path we should take out of this. GEJ...tried to get us off oil dependency via removing fuel subsides in 2012...with the hope that we would eventually use foreign investment to get us off oil..and ginger our economy. But many of us were to blind to see(fortunately, I was not).

poiZon:
U r talking bullshit.
Cbn has stated why reserves keeps going down u r talking of oil price.
Is oil d only foreign exchange earner in nigeria?

seborrhic:
Obasanjo set up EFCC,ICPC,the various electrification programs,though some ended up being embezzled;GSM came into being,etc;YarAdua set up amnesty program,due diligence office,ensured petroleum availability despite reduction in price and genuine electoral reform, acknowledging publicly that the election that brought him to power was flawed,in just 2 and half years of his reign.
Lest I forget,even as a military dictator Abacha gave birth to privatization of the electronic media.
GEJ started BVN,Remita and many of the financial programs that are now almost commonplace in 5 years of his reign.
Buhari in 6 years cannot point to one novel idea or program he has initiated or implemented.
His only known legacy is severally publicly defending killings by herdsmen,even as a Nigerian president!

Drabeey:
The truth is that Nigeria economy is in a state of emergency now and this is due to Nigerians. I tend not to believe anymore that the government is our problem. No! We are our own problems per say.

For Example:

If we have not voted Buhari, things would have been better abi?
We are all liars. See an average Nigerian wants to blame his predicaments on the government. Whereas who is called government gaan

E je ka bara wa so oto oro (let's us tell ourselves the truth jare)

Now see this one trying to reap from Nigeria's problem.



Yes we voted them to make a difference.... YenYenYen

Tell me one Past president, governor, even LG councillor that us not richer than prior his tenure (except they go bankrupt maybe through wanting to clinge to power). Tell me!
Even those we call founding fathers lived a luxury life when they had the mantle that most of their children today still live affordable houses compared to other Nigerians... Is it the salary they earn as public office holders or many kick backs
I stand corrected on that!

Is that Kyari man not a Nigerian?
Tinubu,Osinbajo, Buhari, Jonathan, Obasanjo... Just mention one saint who doesn't have family and well-wishers who really voted for him (if you know you know)

As a Nigerian judge yourself, if any of your family and friends become anything meaningful in Nigeria and maybe he/she allow you to head one coded office that can ordinarily without stealing make you rich for only four Years. Tell me what you'd do, yes you! Iwo ni mon bawi joor

Well our problem is not just one thing, even the media won't tell the truth.
See news of foreign exchange like WW3 news. Wetin happen?

Naira drop, gain, drop again....

Na today we know say Naira no get value?



See 'on a normal baze' een, Naija Economy just no sweet at all, but WHOEVER THINKS BUHARI IS THE CAUSE should summon me to a public debate ( see My eyes yaff clear, i am now a Nigerian devoid of any Political, religious or Tribal Affiliation). If you hate the truth HATE it.

Dem ban Rice people dey shout?
A whole Nigeria can't produce Good rice without stone... But if we no start with this, how are we going to ever export rice just to DIVERSIFY our economy?

No be one of the cause Naira devaluation be say we too dey import pass wetin dey commot, Abi? Economists in the house

See our problem is so interwoven that i even don't believe if Nigeria go separate ways, we would still get it right. I don't believe that.

Corruption is in our gene
It is the food we eat
The water we drink
Infact the air we inhale too! Hence why would majority of Nigerians abroad comport immediately they leave the country?

The country is FkdUP, BIG TIME!

Political history of Nigeria sef no sweet and the only generation that can make a difference are been devided through Religious and Tribal intolerance.

...but im still a Nigerian and a patriot, come what may!


Drabeey was Here

Izongdave:
Speaking as an APC supporter, we don't need foreign reserve, we need local ones.....

Resurgent2016:
It takes a dull follower to keep an inept leader in power. Its very appalling that some people still believe a case can be made for the obvious economic mismanagement of the economy by this government.

Gnaeusmagnus:
OK

Here is the reason why the reserve is falling, and by the way, if you think I am defending Buhari, you have missed the point of my discussion. Like most Nigerian things about the economy, Buhari is a symptom not the cause.

1.Oil prices are chronically low. And infact, they are set to keep falling with the corona virus thing happening.

2.For Nigeria to survive, we need oil to be at a certain price called the breakeven price...in brief, the price where we have paid all the production costs, and have enough left over. As at 2012, it was $120. Today it is at $139 per barrel. Oil since 2015 has not risen above $75, and is now around $60

3.Because of the low oil price, since 2015, when our Bubu took over, oil has been staying low. Infact, we have been losing anywhere between $60-90 per barrel of oil sold because the oil price has not been high enough.

4.Initally, our reserves in 2015 were at $32bn, then they went down to $28 billion. Then Bubu managed to raise it to above $40 billion.

5.The problem is, oil prices have been remaining very low. In an ideal situation, you wait till oil prices go up, with the hope that the economy stabilizes. Now, it hasn't gone up....so we have to start dependeing on the reserves.

6. Why are we taking loans...because the oil price has been below the breakeven price...which means that we must take loans...or by now we would collapse.

7. The only way out is simple

. We cut fuel subsides...money saved....reserves grow

. We cut power subsides...money saved...reserves grow.

. Hopefully investment flows in, meaning we have enough resources to fuel our economic growth...which means we would eventually, after a period of hardship, become a industrial nation, and earn FAR more than we ever earned from oil. Then things like restructuring, and even Biafra would look more feasible.

8.The truth is that Buhari, like most Nigerian leaders, cannot take that decsion because

-it means higher fuel prices, and higher power prices
-it means potential economic crisis and inflation


so, we keep on wasting money on welfare projkects, while we keep borrowing to keep our heads afloat.

Mind, most African countries are like this, which is why many of them are so broke. We rely on raw materials and share the income they bring...meanwhile, we don't control their prices. That's how it has been since 1960...and why restructuring now, and even going back to agruculture won't save us.

That is why our reserves keep on going down.

MODIFIED

For those who read this and think I am defending Buahri....sorry, I am not. The problem in breif is that our economy is tied to the price of oil. And we do not control that price. That is a big part of the reason why we are in the mess today.

Nigerian leaders, Bubu inclusive, have known the path we should take out of this. GEJ...tried to get us off oil dependency via removing fuel subsides in 2012...with the hope that we would eventually use foreign investment to get us off oil..and ginger our economy. But many of us were to blind to see(fortunately, I was not).

MODIFIED 2

Many responses to this assume that I am defending the Buhari administration.

Well, to be honest I am not.

I can see why people think that way....the explanation I have given above can be seen by some as amounting to 'The government is not doing well because there isn't enough money...the problem is beyond our control'.

To me, the problem is simple. We will continue to have economic problems when our economy is linked to oil prices...so, either the government gets us off oil, or leaves our economy vulnerable'

And if you cannot come to my conclusion, sorry.

Once again, I am not pro or anti Buhari. The sad thing about politics for me is that leadership at all levels is not visionary enough for me, and the same mistakes keep being made. If you want to peg me as a probuharist...sorry. I didn't vote for him at any time since 2003.

DAVE5:
How can an economy rely solely on one source of income (crude oil) and expect progress

What if crude dries up which is unlikely to be but what if it does because the crude can't keep replenishing itself with the reckless abandon we're using to drain it without any results

The world is going electric, that means lesser crude demand no matter what you say, it might take time before it happens that everything relies on electric but it's happening gradually

How else can Nigeria make money if not to diversify; and one of those means is agric

I've read where people said agric can't save us and I begin to wonder how people come to such conclusion

I hope you do realize food is the most basic need of every living organism even if you don't have shelter or cloth, you can survive but without food, crude oil is totally useless, meaning if we use agric, we can become a food basket of the world and demand for food can never reduce rather it increases as population increases, even when population reduced which is most unlikely food demand doesn't just go down like that ohh

Check other countries, they have several source of power in itself, meaning if this over fails, the other still sadness the day

Gnaeusmagnus:
That's what I have been wondering for the past 10 years o....



Exactly, and all it takes is someone discovering nuclear fusion.....




My problem with agric in Nigeria is twofold

1.It is not mechanized

2.It is not mechanized.

Because of mechanization and government subsides, cotton farmers in the US can out produce and beat cotton farmers in Mali and Burkina Faso...because, like Nigeria, most of the cotton farmers are subsitence farmers,20 of whom cannot outproduce one US farmer.

Another thing....EVERYBODY DOES AGRIC. So, if you are exepcting income from agric..it won't be too much.

Again, we don't control the prices of agric commodities.....so if prices fall....the same old story.

It would be good if we used the byproducts of agric eg cow skin for shoes/leather...productively.


Yeah.

Gnaeusmagnus:
Thanks for calling me dull, and thanks for so grossly missing the point here.

It seems you anti-buharists are like your pro-buharists opposite numbers....just labelling anyone who does not say what you want them to say dull...

WELL....my point is simple...we are in economic wahala because our economy is oil dependent.

Has Buhari taken measures to take us off oil dependency....NO.

So, how am I making a case for Buhari's economic polices? ?

Perhaps some people need to read things much better.

Good morning.