₦airaland Forum

With the current economic and financial challenges facing Nigeria as a country, I believe the following will take place (some already taking place) in Nigeria within the next ten years:
1. Continuous weak Naira against major foreign currencies.
2. IMF / World Bank Bailout.
3. Redenomination of the Naira inevitable.
4. Continuous Two-Digit inflation.
5. Downsizing / Rightsizing of the Federal and State Civil Service.

With the past and current mismanagement of our oil and gas resources amidst high crude oil prices, our economy remains very precarious to the impending drop in crude oil prices as a result of the following:
1. Increase in the use of renewable energy resources.
2. Discovery of new oil fields in international waters juxtaposed against decrease in world oil recoverable oil reserves.
3. Global slow pace of economic recovery.

Please kindly state your own forecast for Nigeria's economic and financial future within the next ten (10) years.

As a result of the foregoing I believe the exchange rate of the Naira against the USD will get to about =N=200 by 2014 and crude oil price might hover around USD 50 per barrel without any major war or conflict in the middle east. Hence, the country might turn to the IMF / World Bank to finance her deficit budget by that time.

Y

Oga Peterwins, any feed back?

Peterwins:
As a result of the foregoing I believe the exchange rate of the Naira against the USD will get to about =N=200 by 2014 and crude oil price might hover around USD 50 per barrel without any major war or conflict in the middle east. Hence, the country might turn to the IMF / World Bank to finance her deficit budget by that time.

I made a close call (forecast) about three (3) years ago (2011) concerning the present state of crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates to the Naira. The country (Nigeria) needs to wean itself from crude oil. We cannot continue to be a mono-economy where over 75% of our national income and about 95% of our foreign exchange receipts comes from crude oil sales.