₦airaland Forum

And I beheld Oando, and lo, it was weighed down with burdens,
debts compassed it round about,
and the people murmured against its name.

Yet I heard a voice like the rushing of many waters, saying:
Fear not, for the flame is not quenched,
neither is the well dried up.

For though its vessels were battered of old,
and its trading brought forth sorrow,
yet from its deep reserves shall a new stream arise.

The oil within shall yet flow with abundance,
and the company that was despised
shall again be called fruitful in the gates.

Blessed are they that tarry with patience,
for their portion shall increase when others faint;
the market shall open her hand,
and Oando shall be lifted as on eagle’s wings.

Thus is the word sealed:
What was thought broken shall be restored,
and what men counted as loss
shall return as gain in its season.

And it came to pass that the market was cast down, shaken by the winds of devaluation,
and the people’s hearts were troubled.

But behold, I lift mine eyes,
and I see a dawn arising in the land;
the ashes give way to light,
and the bourse of Nigeria shall be restored.

Thus saith the Spirit concerning Dangote Cement:
The stone which the builders cast low
shall be made a cornerstone once more;
its strength shall endure,
and its yield shall multiply.

Concerning MTN Nigeria, it is written:
Though the voice was silenced by the tempest,
it shall yet speak again across the land;
its signal shall not fail,
and those who believe shall not be ashamed.

And of Oando ... the favoured one, hear this word:
Though fire hath tried it,
though debts have compassed it about,
still shall its wells flow with abundance,
and the oil thereof shall anoint
the hands of those that hold fast.

Verily, the market that was fallen shall arise,
and the treasures that were hidden shall be revealed.
The faithful who sow in patience
shall reap a harvest in due season.

ProphetUtuocha:
May we not be deaf to hear, and weak to act:
---------------------------------------------------------------
I foresee the Nigerian stock market, after enduring storms of inflation, FX volatility, and regulatory unpredictability, rising like the phoenix. Dangote Cement will be recognized by discerning investors as underpriced as its margins and growth will pull its valuation upward. MTN Nigeria will regain its footing, its losses from currency shifts will be tempered, and its revenue streams in data and services will shine, making the stock sought-after. Oando ... the jewel of our time, having shown what it can do in upstream growth and profit recovery, will break through investor skepticism, and its current price will be seen as a bargain for those patient and bold enough to hold on!

The market sleeps beneath a stormy sky,
Yet dawn shall break, and hope will rise.
From ashes deep, the phoenix soars,
Nigeria’s bourse will shine once more.

Dangote’s stone, firm in the earth,
Holds hidden strength, a rising worth.
Though costs may bite and shadows loom,
Its golden yield shall pierce the gloom.

MTN, the voice across the land,
Bruised by winds it could not stand,
Shall find its song, its signal clear,
And call investors back this year.

Oando, flame of oil and fire,
Tested hard by debt and ire,
Yet in its wells new promise flows,
A hidden gem the market knows.

So mark these words, O watchful eyes,
The market soon again shall rise.
What seems undervalued now, shall glow.
A prophet’s seed, in time, will grow.

May we not be deaf to hear, and weak to act:
---------------------------------------------------------------
I foresee the Nigerian stock market, after enduring storms of inflation, FX volatility, and regulatory unpredictability, rising like the phoenix. Dangote Cement will be recognized by discerning investors as underpriced as its margins and growth will pull its valuation upward. MTN Nigeria will regain its footing, its losses from currency shifts will be tempered, and its revenue streams in data and services will shine, making the stock sought-after. Oando ... the jewel of our time, having shown what it can do in upstream growth and profit recovery, will break through investor skepticism, and its current price will be seen as a bargain for those patient and bold enough to hold on!

Joyful365:
Thank you for the information.

Do you know which of the banks one can easily walk into or use their online platform to get commercial papers and the steps to follow? My cousin's account officer is frustrating her.

You can get CPs through any of the banks or easily through your broker

Joyful365:
Please house clarify these grey areas on commercial papers and money market funds if you have the experience.

For commercial papers, is the interest rate quoted prorated? For example, if 21.15% is quoted for 270 days tenure, is the 21.15% indicated for one year interest rate, meaning to prorate it to 270 days you do 21.15%/365 * 270 = 15.64%? Meaning it is 15.64% that will be paid for the commercial paper of 270 days tenure? Or the 21.15% will be paid for the 270 days CP tenure? Also, are CPs subject to witholding tax? What other fees are charged on CPs?

On money market funds, what are the fees charged and are they charged on the interest earned or charged on the total sum under management? For example, if you put ₦10 million in a money market fund and it earns 10% (1 million) in one year, will the fees be charged on the 1 million earned or the entire 11 million? If on the entire 11 million, what happens when the fund managers don't make any returns? Will they still continue to remove their management fees from your capital?

1. Commercial Papers (CPs): Is the quoted interest prorated?

Yes , in virtually all markets (Nigeria inclusive), the quoted yield (e.g. 21.15%) is an annualized rate, not the exact return for that tenor.

To get the actual interest you earn for a shorter tenor (say 270 days), you have to prorate.

Exception: Some CPs are issued on a discount basis (i.e., sold below face value and redeemed at par). In that case, the quoted discount rate already embeds the time tenor. But if you see a "quoted yield" as in your example, it’s annualized and must be prorated.

Are CPs subject to withholding tax (WHT)?

Yes. Interest income on CPs attracts 10% withholding tax in Nigeria (deducted at source before payment).

This is the final tax (you don’t pay additional tax on that income again).

Other fees on CPs?
Typically no additional fees charged to investors. The issuing company may pay arrangers, trustees, issuing houses, etc., but those fees are on the issuer’s side, not the subscriber’s.

As an investor, what you see (net of WHT) is what you get.

2. Money Market Funds (MMFs)

How are fees charged?

MMF managers charge a management fee (often 1% – 2% per annum) and sometimes a trustee/custodian fee (tiny, usually <0.3%).

These fees are charged on the fund’s total assets under management (AUM), not just on the interest earned.

The fees are deducted from the fund’s gross returns before you see your NAV/unit price increase.

So in your example:
Invest ₦10 million.Suppose the gross return on investments = 10% (₦1m).

If management fee = 1.5% of AUM, that’s ₦150,000 deducted.
Net distributable return to you = ₦850,000 (an effective yield of 8.5%).

What happens if the fund makes no return (or negative return)?

Yes, fees still apply. Managers deduct them from AUM regardless. However, in practice, most MMFs are invested in safe, short-term instruments (T-bills, CPs, repos, bank placements), so negative returns are rare. But your capital can erode slowly if returns are very low and fees still get deducted.

Remember:
Commercial Papers: Quoted yield is annualized, prorate to tenor. Subject to 10% WHT. No investor-side fees.

Money Market Funds: Fees are on AUM, deducted before declaring returns. Even if returns are low, fees are still taken.

May those who have ears hear!!

ProphetUtuocha:
Revelation on Oando
====================

Oando, though storms have shaken you,
your foundation remains unbroken.

The market once turned its face,
yet in the coming season it shall return in pursuit.

As a bride adorned, you shall be sought after, valued not only for oil, but for resilience.

Investors shall contend for your name,
and nations shall desire your lamp of energy.

In due time, your rejected stone
shall become a cornerstone of fortune,
and those who doubted shall marvel at your rise.

And, so shall it be

Revelation on Oando
====================

Oando, though storms have shaken you,
your foundation remains unbroken.

The market once turned its face,
yet in the coming season it shall return in pursuit.

As a bride adorned, you shall be sought after, valued not only for oil, but for resilience.

Investors shall contend for your name,
and nations shall desire your lamp of energy.

In due time, your rejected stone
shall become a cornerstone of fortune,
and those who doubted shall marvel at your rise.

And, so shall it be

And so it is!

ProphetUtuocha:
Vision Concerning Ellah

I was lifted in the night, and I beheld Ellah as a tall cedar planted by the waters. Her branches spread wide, and the birds of the air found shade in her leaves. Men looked and said, ‘Behold Ellah, strong and unshakable!’

But suddenly a great wind arose from the east, and the roots of the cedar were revealed. They were shallow, feeding not on rock but on dust. And the tree trembled, and its branches snapped, and the birds fled in terror.

Then I saw merchants in the marketplace. They carried scales in their hands, yet the weights were false. They shouted loudly of profit, but their baskets were empty. A voice cried out: ‘Woe to those who trust in Ellah! For her height is pride and her fruit is vanity.’

And it came to pass that fire struck the cedar, and it fell with a crash heard in the farthest cities. Those who traded in her shade tore their garments and cast dust upon their heads, saying, ‘Alas, who shall restore Ellah?’

But to the humble I heard a whisper: ‘Fear not. Though the cedar has fallen, I will be your shelter. Though the market shakes, my rock shall not be moved.’

Note: that which has been revealed has been unveiled. Those who have ears, let them hear!

Vision Concerning Ellah

I was lifted in the night, and I beheld Ellah as a tall cedar planted by the waters. Her branches spread wide, and the birds of the air found shade in her leaves. Men looked and said, ‘Behold Ellah, strong and unshakable!’

But suddenly a great wind arose from the east, and the roots of the cedar were revealed. They were shallow, feeding not on rock but on dust. And the tree trembled, and its branches snapped, and the birds fled in terror.

Then I saw merchants in the marketplace. They carried scales in their hands, yet the weights were false. They shouted loudly of profit, but their baskets were empty. A voice cried out: ‘Woe to those who trust in Ellah! For her height is pride and her fruit is vanity.’

And it came to pass that fire struck the cedar, and it fell with a crash heard in the farthest cities. Those who traded in her shade tore their garments and cast dust upon their heads, saying, ‘Alas, who shall restore Ellah?’

But to the humble I heard a whisper: ‘Fear not. Though the cedar has fallen, I will be your shelter. Though the market shakes, my rock shall not be moved.’

Note: that which has been revealed has been unveiled. Those who have ears, let them hear!

Oando's raise
Will be
At a price
Far, far higher than 50
That will make
It's current price
A huge bargain!

Value investors
Are accumulating Oando
While folks panic-sale

So much noise on Oando, but what do we decipher from their recent data?

A fair value analysis based on Oando PLC’s unaudited H1 2025 financial results (for the six months ended 30 June 2025):

0-1Revenue was ₦1.72 trillion (~US $1.12 billion), down ~15% year‑on‑year, mainly due to softer trading volumes and lower realized prices  .

299-0Upstream production surged by ~63% YoY to ~37,012 boepd, supported by integration of NAOC assets, higher uptime, and revamped facilities  .

474-0Gross profit declined 28% to ₦59 billion; operating loss hit ₦158 billion despite net profit of ₦63 billion, boosted by a sizable tax credit and strong finance income (~₦159 billion finance income; ₦209 billion tax credit)  .

735-0Profit‑after‑tax stood at ₦63 billion, essentially flat YoY (~₦62.6 billion in H1 2024)  .

📊 Valuation & Fair Price Estimate

1. Earnings Power

H1 PAT ≈ ₦63 billion → Annualize to ~₦120 billion (assuming H2 performance rebounds).

If the full‑year 2025 profit reaches ₦150 billion (given upstream gains and turnaround from H2), and assuming 2 billion shares outstanding, EPS ≈ ₦75/share.

2. P/E Multiples & Comparables

Nigerian energy peer group typically trades between P/E 8–12×.

Applying P/E of 10→ fair value ≈ ₦750/share; at P/E 8→ ₦600/share; at P/E 12→ ₦900/share.


3. Asset‑Based / DCF Sketch

Upstream reserves ~983 MMboe → long‑term value, especially with expansion into Angola.

Capex guidance of $250–270 million for H2 and drilling; if production rises beyond 40k boepd and oil price stays strong, cash flow improves meaningfully.

Simplified discounted cash flow (very rough): if free cash flow stabilizes at ₦200 billion/year (~US $160 million) with WACC of 12%, a perpetuity value ≈ ₦1.67 trillion → per share fair value ~₦830 (assuming ~2 b shares).

🔍 Summary Fair Value Range

Method Estimated Value (₦/share)

P/E = 8× ~600
P/E = 10× ~750 (central estimate)
P/E = 12× ~900
Simplistic DCF ~830
Implied fair range **₦600–900 per share**

🚩 Key Risks & Considerations

AGGRESSIVE tax credits and finance income distorted H1 earnings; H2 may not repeat that boost.

Volatility in global oil prices, FX rates, and downstream trading margins could swing actual profits.

862-15Balance‑sheet concerns: equity had negative retained earnings at H1 (summed group Equity ≈ ₦−270 billion)  .

Capital restructuring and debt conversion plans are underway—these may dilute existing shareholders or alter capital structure.

✅ Bottom‑Line Estimate

If H2 execution picks up and trading improves, ₦700–800 per share seems a reasonable fair‑value midpoint today. A conservative stance using a modest P/E of 8 yields ₦600, while a more optimistic surprise or smoother H2 execution justifies nearer ₦900.

No worries
OANDO will surely cross 100

yMcy56:
OANDO is bottoming in market from the look of things.....
Any positive news will start causing rally...
Just my observation anyway

Just remember:
Those who put their 20b
In Oando today
Knew something
And are betting with their fund!

On Oando,
Patience is key
For a new era
Is about to begin!

Mark this:

Unlike Oando Q1 results
Q2 results will be released early
And it shall be an exciting improvement
Which will usher Oando on a new trajectory

And so shall it be
As this remains planting season
And not yet the period of harvest
For the yield will be bountiful in due season

Enough said!

Don't be caught in analysis paralysis
Oando will soon cruise pass 100 km

Keep close eye on Oando
And, don't be a standby
I won't say more!

Oil price rises
Oil companies smile
Enough said!

Bear this in mind:
-------------------------------

ProphetUtuocha:
The move will be much smoother
With less attention than before
And by the time folks realize
It has gone far
Then, the rush will start

Over 21 million units of Oando were rushed today
Yet many could not buy
Great things are coming
Watch out!

ProphetUtuocha:

Watch out for Oando
Exciting development coming

Folks were alerted!

ProphetUtuocha:
The move will be much smoother
With less attention than before
And by the time folks realize
It has gone far
Then, the rush will start

And, so it is!

Watch out for Oando
Exciting development coming

An interesting week ahead.

The move will be much smoother
With less attention than before
And by the time folks realize
It has gone far
Then, the rush will start

Something marvelous is coming
Watch out!

Even if annualized, the figures are still FALSE!

Sunrisepebble:
They annualize their EPS. Not sure why

I saw Wema Q1.25 result
And laughed.
Magic EPS
Where's the correlation
Between profit and outstanding shares
EPS came from the blues
My guess: a sane market will punish them!!!
Let's watch as things unfold

How do we Access a bank when the spirit is weak and the soul troubled?