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Stats: 3,106,307 members, 7,665,091 topics. Date: Saturday, 02 December 2023 at 10:03 PM
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 10:32am On May 27|
Describe yours and let's brainstorm.
First read the rules on the wave count.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 10:26am On May 27|
Vibes from the past : 27th March 2008 pricelist
ETI got to a high of 260 then.
Pandemic : N3.90
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 9:22am On May 27|
I hardly use Elliot wave to make analysis after learning it from a user called Waves in Stock Market Nigeria back in those days in 2010. There are enough easier to use tools available.
Only using it to debunk the assertion that we are in a Wave 5 move as suggested by people here.
In a Wave 5 move, you wake you and the market is 10% full bid till market closes. Everyday for weeks.
In 2007 to 2008, that was the norm then.
Look around and you see huge number of stocks not even responding to moves while few sectors rise.
In a Wave 5 move, all insurance stocks will be trading above N5 by now. ZENITH should be at N120 in a Wave 5 move. And where are we today? Abegi.
Remember BAICO, IEI, Guinea ins?
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:59am On May 27|
You seem green in this field and want to learn. We have been investing since 2006. We saw the euphoria of 2006 till March 2008. Many people lost money. I lost some too especially on IPOs, PO but I had a good paying job that made me not bother about the loss.
People made huge money pumping NSE index in 2008 to 66,200 or so. 2008 was a wave 5 of the bullish trend that started in September1999 when NSE index was at 4,900. From that time till 2008, NSE index rose 1,250%.
Once you have a parabolic rise as seen between 2006 to 2008 on NSE INDEX chart, it is usually followed by a sharp decline/corrections. For such corrections, you should hardly invest in them. You should trade them because they are bound to reverse.
And since 2008 till date, NSE index has not touched the 66,200 made then.
In every of such correction, the price makes ABC moves using Elliot Wave. Wave A ended around 2012 when NSE index was at 19,400 during Sanusi Lamido saga. Wave B should go high enough but the peaks seen in 2014 and 2018 doesn't match the specifications described in ELLIOT wave. And the trough of 2018 wave did not clear Wave A (made in 2012).
Then comes the rise after pandemic. The peak hit almost 56,000 in 2023 which correctly describes a Wave B based on the calculations. And coincidentally as could been seen today, all the negative news started coming out around the world about Moody downgrade of Nigerian banks, German recession, crude oil price drop, US defaults, US banking crisis, Chinese downgrade of US AAA ratings, virus resurgence in China, deadly fungi in US and Mexico blah blah blah.
This tells one that we still have a downtrend to go. Wave C needs to clear 2012 low of 19,400. Hence I had to estimate a drop to 18,900 to have a completion of the correction that started in 2008.
If this dares happen, then one can say where the next wave will take us to. We wait to see.
Note: Wave C is usually vicious just like the type we saw in 2020.
"It is not the hunter who spends the most time in the forest that catches the biggest kill."
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:35pm On May 26|
Keep the currency of investment of the country you invest in.
Naira in Nigeria
Euro in EU
USD in US
Try not to mix.
Moreover those who advise you to keep USD in Nigeria, have you tried changing N1B before using aboki? Then have it changed back when you want to reinvest?
If you have forex obligations, then you are obliged to keep forex in the country where you use naira. But if you don't have such obligations, how much volume can you change?
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:27pm On May 26|
There is no way you can be sure of what is coming. Events are dynamic and can take any form or shape.
I once looked at the international price of rice and live cattle and saw that it is going to rise alot using various indicators. Hence I warned that food prices are going to go higher and people should stack. I got criticism for that and people telling me that Buhari has rice pyramids.
The rest is history. Now we are battling increasing food costs.
Elliot wave can't cause covid. Covid can't cause Elliot wave. But it is an indicator that will explain to you how prices behave due to the interactions of all participants (FA, TA, sentiments etc)
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:15pm On May 26|
Elliot wave is one of the indicators in a box of plenty. All tools need to align.
NSE lacks long period of price data (that dates back to say 1980s), so you will not enjoy the benefit of most tools with NSE. There are breakages on NSE timeframes. So I use lots of foreign stocks, bonds, indexes to test my research.
Elliot waves have calculations which if you understand you will easily tell on which impulse wave you are one or on which corrective stage you are on.
The indicator won't predict an event (say covid) but when you place it with other parameters and watch out for negative divergences on longer timeframe (monthly, quarterly, yearly), you can easily expect something coming to drag the price down and revert prices back to the mean level. And when I mention here that something is coming, many pundits say it is conspiracy theories. That is why I keep battling with my mind asking if everything happening around us is arranged (which you are indirectly saying that something in the world bends to fulfil the prophecy).
I invest based on these outcomes from the indicators I use. It hardly fails only that some will take time to materialise.
I remembered warning about Sugar prices by looking at my indicator and after some months, Brazilian election went wrong and protest started in Brazil. Brazil is one of the highest producers of Sugar. So when you look at these charts and see that a price spike is coming in a product, equity or any instrument, your job is to research which company/country produces what and what could occur in those places.
It isn't voodoo. Just do your research.
11 Likes 1 Share
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:46pm On May 26|
Don't mind Peter. He is always like that. He finishes me on watsapp.
In January 2018, I warned that something big was coming. Got lots of criticism for it.
We bought around end of 2018 in tranches and into 2019 full time.
In January 2020, I still warned again that it is even bigger but don't know what it is. Still got lots of criticism for that.
We bought back in March 2020.
People made money.
The counter trend rally is always like that. People lose their heads.
Now I warn again.
This rally you see today cannot be compared to the January 2020 rally where brokers were calling clients to come and take loan. We warned it was a trap. The rest is history.
We are ending Wave 2 of what began in 2008. Wave 2 ends when oil crashes again.
I'm 60% cash - 40% equities. So all dividends shared so far, I got mine. But only warning that people should keep cash handy. It is coming.
9 Likes 1 Share
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:29pm On May 26|
All roads will lead to US treasuries and global bond markets.
As you can see, it is currently very low.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 3:00pm On May 26|
This is not a Nigerian thing. I don't discuss politics. I'm talking about a global seizure. Businesses are going bust, financial issues up and down, people losing their jobs.
It will affect everything like gold, silver, crude oil, all commodities, crypt, equities, real estate traded funds. Everything.
It will be a waterfall.
8 Likes 1 Share
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 1:02pm On May 26|
My last warning o.
This is not a bullish market. Please keep some cash aside before the generational low starts.
I don talk finish.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:31pm On May 19|
Keep some cash for the generational low that is coming. It will be very painful when people see stocks at an unimaginable low level and can't buy. The market isn't bullish. In a real bullish market, everything rises.
Can NSE index touch 18,900? We will see.
Food cost will get worse. Oil price decline could exacerbate things for oil producing countries and banks that fund it. Emerging markets are about to see shege.
After these events comes calm.
See you in January 2024.
In Biden's voice: Let's lick the world!
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 2:49pm On May 07|
The simple question we should be asking ourselves is : how does CBN store her foreign reserves in US banks? Cash? or it is invested in US treasuries?
How do Local banks store their foreign reserves in corresponding foreign banks? Cash or it is invested in US treasuries?
Many banks will invest in the "risk-free" instrument of US or EU treasuries as at 2020 and 2021. And in 2022, there was a huge decline in these treasury prices and automatically causing any financial institution to take losses on these supposedly risk free foreign reserves.
Were these factored into their P/L accounts like the type we see in many US banks that have collapsed as a result of the bond losses which many EM banks have their foreign exchange reserves invested in.
On this note, financial institution doesn't seem investable for me for now because there are lots of issues that are unresolved in the country where their foreign reserves are invested. If the US and EU banks are taking severe losses, how about our banks and central bank that invested in the same instrument? This goes for all EMs financial institutions.
When GTB declines to such low price, then imagine where other tier 2 banks could get to. It will be kobo kobo galore.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:00am On May 06|
Doctor, na me you dey call "That one".
I will buy your GTB from you at N9 only.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:55am On May 03|
Yeah. Was on vacation and returned. We can chat on my mobile whenever you are less busy.
I don't know what it is, but it looks big and could drive NGX very low(maybe Brent trading at $30s) . Very very low. All EMs will join the world as it sells off.
Osu imi, Osu anya.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:36am On May 03|
Gradually, then suddenly.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:35am On May 03|
It is a 35 kobo stock las las.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:09am On Apr 27|
Transcorp stock still has one major decline to do which will take out the pandemic low of 0.51. So around 47 kobo will be a good buy price.
FBN is on the same boat. Still needs to decline to 2016 low of 2.85.
What will cause it? I don't know.
|Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by RabbiDoracle: 11:48am On Apr 26|
$32 could be a strong support for Tesla.
Elon doesn't need to reinvent the wheels in the smart phone sector. All he just needs to do is to buy an existing phone maker (Like Blackberry) with a very low float. That way with $2B, he could acquire the whole company.
Nokia will be too expensive for him because the market capitalisation of Nokia as at yesterday stands at $23.55B while BB stands at $2.32B
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 8:36pm On Apr 03|
I dobale mi re o.
|Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 3:31pm On Apr 03|
Fidelity bank announced last year that they will be doing Private placement.
Price of this PP was not announced. When are they going to announce?
Why are they doing PP? To raise funds? What is the funds for? To support Tier 1 Capital or for working capital or both?
We wait to see.
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