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RabbiDoracle's Posts

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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 9:17am
chillykelly86:


Note that Q1 PAT is after payment of a fine of 55b(31st March. So, by flat extrapolation, Q2 PAT(after this month end fine) will be 48b, Q3 and Q4 103b each. FY PAT - 302b. Without any fine, full year PAT should be 412b, with EPS of about #20.

It is not true.

EBITDA is different from PAT.

It is with PAT that you calculate EPS abd not using EBITDA.

EBITDA ~ Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization

PAT ~ Profit After Tax
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 7:52pm On May 23
Godlylifeoneart:
What will happen to NSE if the trade war continues?

Investors should naturally take money to Emerging Markets because stocks in both countries will be falling and there will be tit for tat policies which will eventually affect productivities in both countries.

Ultimately, it will cause contagion effect on the world because as US and China slows, every other thing slows on other parts of the world.

Money must move around. The money can't stay idly in a place where there are uncertain policies.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 2:45pm On May 23
GonFreecss1:


Lol. Unfortunately the numbers say we are in the catalyst effect time, capitulation is close, but not yet.

Remember it's just what the probability is, and it's not a perfect 1, so there is a chance that I can be wrong.


heyteaherm:


We Called this a long time ago and some people were angry like we don't know what we are doing or wishing the market bad ... we will review the prices again and give updated forecast ... this price action seems to be in a capitulation move but not 100% sure...

Already lapses in the fiscal policies are beginning to reveal themselves, unaccounted funds in CBN and The Governor giving a hint of a second recession, who knows what is next.

Are you one and the same person? grin
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 2:20pm On May 23
Last minute purchases of other stocks. grin

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:21pm On May 23
robobo:


ataba turu
Egun oniko
Osha Apena

My Broda na really Buffet (alias serve ursef)

i am getting the beating of my life from UCAP but nothing do me


grin grin grin grin grin

I Knew UCAP will fall below N2.

It is a reset. Those who know, know.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:19pm On May 23
robobo:


ataba turu
Egun oniko
Osha Apena

My Broda na really Buffet (alias serve ursef)

i am getting the beating of my life from UCAP but nothing do me


grin grin grin grin grin

That means you bought high in UCAP.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:18pm On May 23
PETERiCHY:
We can see that SANITY is gradually returning to the MARKET no more long epistle all thsnks to OGA BEAR grin

When BUHARI use VETO power to steal ATIKU MANDATE. I told investors to watch that space and trade the market with a PESSIMISTIC MINDSET for the next 4yrs.

BUBU with a 2nd term MANDATE got nothing else to lose or campaign for again. Aside quietly retiring to DAURA in 2023.

He's now fulfilled and ready to join his ancestors so if ECONOMY like let it slide into DOUBLE RECCESSION that's the least of his PROBLEM.

*ThE OcToPuS*

Use this 4 years to load well then grin. When he retires, another person will enter.

Market can remain irrational longer than you are solvent.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:15pm On May 23
OakPearl:


grin grin grin grin grin grin
AT this rate, another type of greed sets in saying "wait small for further downward spiraling or buy 'small, small'"!
While you are at that, 2 things are likely:
1. The cookies keep crumbling and you serve yourself delightedly
or
2. Upward swing and your case becomes "Had I known"
grin grin grin

So plan your downward entry well.

At a point equilibrium will be reached.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:13pm On May 23
Jejebabaa:

Sir Pero, what entry price do you advise to average down UBA with this MTNN Listing? Kindly let me know when the Wealth transfer will start as i no get patience.

If you want to average down on any stock, see how it is done.

If you bought the stock at 3. Wait for it to get to 2.4 to 2.5 and you buy your batch. Wait and monitor. If it falls to 2. You buy another batch.

If it goes to 1.5, you go again. That way you are on every major step downwards. So if there is any reversal, it happens very fast. So you will not be amongst those helping to bid up prices. As they bid up prices, You go just dey look them like Uche!

6 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:45am On May 23
mendes911:


What about those Private Placement? Na the PP's hurt me pass till date.

I never partook in the PP o. Na God I just dey thank.

But for the IPO, I clearly understood what Ben Graham wrote many years ago: It's Probably Overpriced.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:43am On May 23
PETERiCHY:


That's part of financials book cooking we are talking about imagine WAPCO from #115 in 2013 to #9:20 2 days.

Well BARGAIN HUNTERS should sharpening their cutlass let's start taking position from subN7:00k in anticipation of a TAKEOVER or BUYOUT.

Once the last capital raising is announced, then you will see N5. Wait small.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:42am On May 23
Zenith nearing 18.

Market has become " aturu ta ba". grin

Food everywhere. Serve yourself! grin

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 11:37am On May 23
tradetaiwo:
Interestingly MTNN no liquid all of a sudden .. after over 50% increase from N99 listing price.
God dey O ! ..


People have not learnt lessons on new listing. We learnt ours in 2007 and now when you are at Ojuelegba and say " I"...., we are already at Yaba thinking you want to complete the "PO".

grin

6 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 10:47am On May 21
OakPearl:


Sometimes the irrationality of man can be incomprehensible.
Sell FUGAZ for this MTNN with those numbers
Human psychology is a dangerous enemy of man when wrongly applied.
Herd mentality everywhere.
May the wise enjoy this sudden wealth transfer opportunity.

"Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that : I could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people."

Newton lost money on the stock market.

5 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 10:44am On May 21
yok:


[b]UBA PROFIT PROJECTION FOR 2ND QTR 2019[/b]- FOLLOW UP

Thanks for the observation. I have checked the report again, you were actually right.

I acknowledged the error.

Latter today, I will post more projections from the report. I am sure this error is just an exception.

Once again, I say thanks for your observation.

You are welcome bro.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:56pm On May 20
nmanya 33 agwoola yok ka abacha. grin grin

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:49pm On May 20
yok:


Thanks.

The 43,792 was for 2nd Qtr 2018, only 3 months. You need to go and get the figures for 1st Quarter 2018, another 3 months and then add the 2 together. I have taken short cut as I was looking at the full analysis. Thus UBA will need to make about 38,863 to meet the 2018 half year figure.

Stop reading a report with a bottle of 33 on one hand!

43,792 you see is for 6 months and not 3 months. That was the half year result for 2018. To get the Q2 2018, just subtract Q1 2018( i.e N23b) from the N43.793b. This should give you around N20b as the second quarter 2018 PAT
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:40pm On May 20
PETERiCHY:


If Tritri see MTNN cross deal at N200 he will gladly accept with both hands.

At N200? That means that Charlie boy is still with his switch grin wink
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:39pm On May 20
PETERiCHY:
LOCO looking for how to join MTNN train. grin

You and loco are like cat and mouse. grin grin

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:37pm On May 20
yok:
PAYING THE CORRECT PRICE FOR A STOCK- TODAY'S EXAMPLE UBA

It seems some people have idea of what will likely happen in the next 2/3 months time, while others just look at what is happening now.

Our forecast has given indication on what some equities will do in quarter 2 of this year. Sometimes before, we have seen what is happening in the Flour Milling, Pharmaceutical industry and Breweries sector they are experiencing some specific sector related issues.

Forecast of 2nd quarter results for some companies will likely be negative, except magic happens we need to avoid putting our money in such equities. No wonder UBA and FBNH said they will try to improve on their result immediately the 2018 year end results were released, nobody tell them the result was bad!!!, did you?. If you are not a very rich person or just a casual investor why will you not wait this this improvement is seen. Have you not lost enough money in the past? If I have seen a services that will not make me to be sitting on the 30 or 40% losses I am sitting on now, I would have been better off. angry lipsrsealed undecided

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.
(Modify) (Quote) (Report) 1 Like (Share)


UBA PAT

Q1 2019 = N28b+
Q1 2018 = N23b+

H1 2018= N43b+

Are you saying that in second quarter 2019, UBA can't make N15b to be equal to half year 2018 of N43b+?

Barring unforeseen circumstances, UBA can easily make N15b in 3 months as PAT.

So stop spreading misinformation just because you want people to subscribe for your lecture for a cash token.

Most people here know the average PAT banks generate as a minimum. So one can easily extrapolate and get what half year and 9M and possibly full year will be.

8 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:11pm On May 20
PETERiCHY:


Most top shots are selling their blue-chip stocks at great loss just to have a bite of MTNN.and most of those funds ain't coming back.

Things will NEVER remain the SAME.

Eyes go open after MTN starts to reverse.

Seems people are betting that people will continue to chase it forever. They can't chase for long before equilibrium sets in.

So newbies should not be fooled by the MTN hype.

6 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:08pm On May 20
tritritri:



Ur cash is already burning ke i doubt dat..is ur total loss up to 10% on ur porfolio ? come see my own na..

grin grin

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 3:49pm On May 20
PETERiCHY:


We are talking of CAPITAL FLIGHT.

MTN GROUP is the biggest brand in Africa and FOREIGN INVESTORS are ready to stalk BILLION of DOLLARS in it than any poo in NSE.

By the time 50% of fund in NSE start chasing MTNN you will see that most viable COYS in NSE will revaluate their dividend yield while the moribund one will pack up.

Just like the scenario of NITEL before the advert of GSM.

As things stands now MTNN is now the new KING of the JUNGLE watchout for REPRICING of coys that has been cooking their books from time immemorial.

*ThE OcToPuS*

I agree with you on the capital flight conspiracy.

Where I don't agree with you is that even if stock falls, whether companies will revaluate their Dividend yields. Fall in the stock market has no effect on the top and bottom lines of companies.

BTW, why STANBİC was not part of the participating banks in the N200b loan? grin

6 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:49pm On May 20
Jejebabaa:

UBA might close below 6 today cos the guy offloading at 6 is smart as he keeps increasing the offered volume bit by bit in order not to crash the price.

He isn't ready to sell. He should just pump the volume into the market at -10% grin

More value at less than 6.

5 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:28pm On May 20
tritritri:



Just wondering where d offers keeps coming from

grin grin grin

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 12:26pm On May 20
tritritri:


I have UBA @ 6.25 , i feel uba will soak people in at 6 then drop to 5.5 ...the offer keeps increasing.

You keep hurting yourself when you look at price grin. Look at value!!!

What value do you hold when you buy a stock? What is in for you?

6 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 2:03am On May 18
AkataYeriYeri:

Okay . I get it .
But . How will the price increase if no trading took place ?
I mean . If no one sells , and no one buys ?
This thing is giving me headache. Lol

Trading took place! MTNN stocks were sold either on the floor or crossed to another broker at the maximum price of the day(hence the 10% rise).

Since it is a much sought after stock, people will continue to bid at 10% maximum price so as to get a piece of it.

So don't have headache. Shares were sold and the stock was bought albeit at maximum price for the day.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 5:41pm On May 16
robobo:


These MTN bidders are falling my hand ooooooooooooooo

i beg first thing tomorrow they shld up the bid to about 500m units ooooooo and back it up with cash

so that NSE can be very cash starved in other to facilitate the prices qouted above

Again im begging them in the name of all things they hold dear

because unlike them im OK with a div yield of 20% (im not really a greedy person) for the near future and those prices wld surely do it for me

It usually continues like this through out summer and the rush comes in October.

Let's see if the trend will change during summer

Market will be "sheep come and chop"(in ibo). grin

Lots of people are waiting with grinding stone and cutlasses.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 5:36pm On May 16
DeRuggedProf:



grin grin grin grin grin. Very funny fellow.
The train has just left the station. Find a shortcut and hang on a tree above the rail tracks, along its path... grin

grin grin grin

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 5:34pm On May 16
ajsans:


Much appreciation for the helpful information. I have a few questions to ask if you don't mind please;
What do you mean by the full abbreviation in the bold WHT? also, in the second bold you did mention that the price one pays for a stock plays an important factor, which means you always ensure that a stock should be priced below it's intrinsic value/ fair value before you buy, does it mean you always determine what a stock fair value is using various method like the popular Discounted cash flow valuation method which the likes of currentprice and Onegentleguy uses.

WHT ~ Withholding Tax

You can use lots of method to get the price you pay for your stock. However, the taste of the pudding is in the eating. You have to buy at or below the instrinsic value. This gives you a better margin of safety.

Now this is where your mind starts to play games on you. When you buy and prices starts to fall, you start to ask yourself if the price you bought was the right price. Aside all these theoretical computations, that is why you need to place your satisfaction on something that you derive value from. And that to me is dividends especially during a downtrend.

So this means that after getting your price to buy, you go further to ask: Presuming they pay the last dividend again, what Dividend Yield (after WHT) will be ok for me? 8%, 10%, 15% etc.

If it is >10%, I will advise you take up the stocks even as price falls. Because falling price will give you improved DY compared to the price you bought earlier. This is like dual buffer. Buying at or below intrinsic price and still waiting for dividends.

So long as price remains low, you could be adding units quietly for that good stock. You can buy large volume at a cheaper price in a downtrend and not an uptrend. So the bear is the period of planting. As in plant coke bottle during bear!! grin

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:50pm On May 15
I don go write epistle grin

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 4:49pm On May 15
robobo:


My Oga i ask a question of u some moons back but didnt get a response

what metrics do u use to measure when price had gone ahead of value

i presently use 5 year average p/bv though it had failed me on some few occassions so i am looking to compare

Buying price is more of human behaviour towards the stock. Some times they get irrational and start selling off good stocks. And they don't buy until they see price jumping 10% for days before they line up again and start buying even if it is higher than the price they sold.

Stock investment should be simple as Warren and Graham described it. But sometimes, there could be lots of formula that will bamboozle you.

After you have finished your calculations, the main move is in the buying. You could buy and prices will still go down further. Does it mean that you are wrong? Human psychology comes into play immediately by saying that you bought so high. That you could have waited. That is why you to make things simple:

Ask yourself these two questions:

A: Do I want cashflow through dividends payment?

B:Do I want capital appreciation?

If you align yourself towards A, it means that you will have to research into companies that have been paying dividends for many years uninterrupted.

Then the next question is: What percentage am I looking at after taking WHT? If you are ok with X%, then do your DY calculation discounting WHT and then get Price (P) from it. But the assumption is that the previous dividend is what will be paid again.

It is very simple approach that you don't even need to kill yourself.

Your P/BV, PE, ROI, DE, Net of net valuations, Profit Margins etc are just mere selection criteria which will narrow down what to buy. But the actual move is the price you pay for it which can change based on lots of factors especially human behaviour (fear/greed).

While lying low in a stock, if the price moves to the point that your gains on the stock = Y number of years dividends, then you sell off. Note that X and Y are dependent on what you think is great for you.

However, if you want capital appreciation(scenario B): Meet FXuser, BullBearMarket, Agba.

Remember Warren Buffett statement after he lost in 2008 on ConocoPhillips: Beware of geeks-bearing formula!


I hope this helps.

11 Likes 2 Shares

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