₦airaland Forum

It's a country of around 185 million people, a member of OPEC and the biggest economy on its continent. But Nigeria may have more than it can handle with the "Niger Delta Avengers."

Nigeria has vowed to rein in the militants who are relentlessly bombing the country's oil infrastructure and have slashed its crude output. But experts say the government of President Muhammadu Buhari lacks the military capacity and institutions to tackle the threat — and military action could make things much worse anyway.

It's a country of around 185 million people, a member of OPEC and the biggest economy on its continent. But Nigeria may have more than it can handle with the "Niger Delta Avengers."

Nigeria has vowed to rein in the militants who are relentlessly bombing the country's oil infrastructure and have slashed its crude output. But experts say the government of President Muhammadu Buhari lacks the military capacity and institutions to tackle the threat — and military action could make things much worse anyway.

Little is certain about the motives of the Niger Delta Avengers. But the group claims through its website and Twitter feed that it wants a bigger share of the Niger Delta's resource wealth to go to the region's people, and it wants some sort of environmental remediation after decades of rampant oil and gas pollution.

What is certain is that the Avengers are effective. Nigeria's oil production has fallen from 2.2 million barrels per day to roughly 1.6 million after a spate of attacks, which come as the country was already in crisis mode thanks to a rout in global oil prices.

Nigeria has deployed more troops to the delta and begun talks with state and local leaders to address their grievances. This week, Nigerian Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu called on the Avengers to "sheath their weapons and embrace dialogue with the government."

The Avengers responded in their Twitter feed: "We're not negotiating with any committee. If Fed Govt is discussing with any group they're doing that on their own."

The Nigerian military has slim hopes of finding and defeating the militant group in the delta's swampy network of creeks, say experts. The terrain confounded soldiers during a prior, yearslong campaign against oil militants, who stopped bombing oil installations only after the government began paying them as part of a 2009 amnesty program.

"I think it would be very difficult to tackle this issue using essentially police methods," said John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria. "The delta doesn't lend itself to military or police action, and in fact, it failed the last time there was an insurrection there."

The military, which Buhari is trying to remake into a more professional fighting force, also has little support among delta residents, and its presence could make matters worse, according to Campbell.

Abuse of civilians at the hands of the military in northern Nigeria provided a potent recruitment tool for Boko Haram, Campbell said. That group has gone on to become one of the world's most deadly terrorist organizations. If similar abuses were repeated in the delta, more militants would likely emerge, he said.

This week, the federal government said it would withdraw troops from villages after complaints of heavy-handed tactics.

Meanwhile, the Avengers have at least tacit support from some locals in the delta. Members are viewed as part bandit and part Al Capone, but they are also seen as part Robin Hood, said Gerald McLoughlin, an independent analyst and former U.S. foreign service officer with experience in Nigeria. That sympathy, coupled with a lack of economic opportunity in the delta, make the group extremely difficult to combat.
"Quite frankly, it's almost impossible. It's not like an insurgency in the classic sense," he told CNBC.

"If they find these guys and hunt them down and shoot them, there will be another group the next day. What else can you do if you live there?" he said.

Thewrath:
Nairaland thinks otherwise

dukie25:
Expect him to be called IPOB very soon.

https://d1phczbdxyh8yo.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/11031405/okurounmu.jpg

In this interview with SAMUEL AWOYINFA, Afenifere chieftain and Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee on the 2015 National Conference, Senator Femi Okurounmu, talks about what the confab report recommended and the implication of not implementing it, among other issues

Sometime in 2015, you said the neglect of the Confab report fuelled pro-Biafra protests. Is that not making excuse for the protesters?

There must be an excuse for people to protest when they feel marginalised. We felt cheated in 1993, we protested. After the Biafra war, the Igbo have been struggling to integrate themselves back into Nigeria as equal citizens with every other Nigerian. Successive regimes have done their best to reintegrate them back, but (President Muhammadu) Buhari’s administration has re-opened their wounds by extremely marginalising Igbos simply because they did not vote for him. The President in his speech on May 29, 2015 said he belonged to nobody but to everybody, which means he will treat everybody equally. But the same Buhari later contradicted himself, by saying he could not treat people who gave him 93 per cent of their votes the same way he would treat those who gave him five per cent. Apparently it is the latter principle he has been following. Recently, we looked at the 59 appointments which he had made, only three came from the South East whereas the North West, the zone from where Buhari comes from, had 26. So where is the justice? Why will the Igbos not feel marginalised? When people feel marginalised, they will resort to all sorts of measures, part of which is to seek to take their own future in their own hands. That is what IPOB is all about.


Don’t you think the plan to secede may be treasonable?

The agitation for self determination is allowed by the United Nations. It is a right of all people across the world. Last year, there was a referendum in Scotland, they wanted to break away from the United Kingdom, but it did not sail through. If it had sailed through they would have been somewhere else.

One of the issues confronting the country at the moment is the issue of the Niger Delta Avengers and Fulani herdsmen. Did you discuss these during your deliberations as well?

We only talked about grazing reserves. I believe whoever wants to rear chickens must have a poultry; likewise whoever wants to graze cattle must build his own cattle ranch. That is the practice all over the world. We opposed the idea of the Federal Government creating grazing zones in every state of the federation but each state can create its own if it so wishes. But since the menace of Fulani herdsmen was prominent in the Middle Belt, we decided to create more states to liberate them from the tyranny of the Fulani herdsmen. We approved nine states per zone, and with six geo-political zones in the country, that makes 54 states. That was the only condition the Middle Belt gave for them to support the restructuring of the country.

Your comment gives one the impression that the Confab report is all Nigeria needs to overcome its problems. Does it mean the country may not have absolute peace if the Confab report is not implemented?

Unless we restructure this country, Nigeria will not know peace. We must have a country where everyone is first class citizen. As we are today, you are not equal to a Fulani man. The Fulani man is superior. What a Fulani man will do and get away with, you cannot do and get away with it.

With the issues at hand currently, could you tell us in plain terms how far the Confab report would have helped to solve some of these issues?

If Buhari had embarked on the process of implementing the report of the 2014 National Conference, a lot of the present agitation would not have arisen. Even though the conference did not approve the present six geo-political zones as the federating units, the Confab strengthens the autonomy of the existing states. For example, it gave each state the power to mobilise and develop its own mineral and other resources. Under this arrangement, oil producing states will be responsible for the exploration of their oil – no external persons will come and pollute their land, but they may work with technical partners on this. States will only pay a fraction of their earnings to the Federal Government. That is how it is done all over the world. If the Niger Delta people are in charge of their oil, they will protect their environment. Also, the Confab gave neighbouring states who feel inclined to merge to do so to form a larger unit and such merger is only subject to the condition that each of the states wants to merge. Such merger must be approved in a referendum by 75 per cent majority and the Houses of Assembly too in the states must also approve the merger by a two-third majority. The Confab further gave each state the right to have its own police to take care of its security, including having lower level of police even at the local government level. Above all, the Confab provided that each state will be in charge of creating its local governments, so that local governments will not be the concern of the Federal Government at all. In fact, the list of LGs will be expunged from the constitution, so that the states can have as many or few LGs as they want, without affecting the quantum of allocation coming to the states. We also changed the allocation formula. We reduced the Federal Government’s allocation and gave more to the states and LGs. Those are the aspects that will strengthen fiscal federalism, even with the existing structure.

The APC leadership does not believe in the Confab because they feel it was politically-motivated and because of the timing. How does that make you feel?

Who are the progressives? The APC leadership; Tinubu and Buhari. Though they condemned the Confab, their people came. The APC governors sent people from their states, some came through the civil society groups, Chief Bisi Akande’s boys were there. Chief Segun Osoba was there to represent the media profession. The opposition was just a smokescreen to deceive the people. The present constitution favours Buhari and the interest of the North, which is to preserve the current constitution, put together by successive military regimes to favour the North. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu aligned with Buhari because he wanted power, and compromised his earlier stand on restructuring. I ask, what has he got from Buhari so far? Atiku Abubakar is from the North, he favours restructuring, but the Southerners in this government are cowardly, they cannot come out and say they want it.

Read the rest - http://www.punchng.com/unless-restructure-nigeriall-not-know-peace-okurounmu/

Stolen:
Breaking News: Buhari Sacks More Than 200 Eastern Army loyal To Jonathan by chairo: 12:45am

[i][/i]There embarassed are indications on Friday, June 11, 2016 that about 200 military officers may have been sacked by the federal government through text messages (SMS) over their alleged loyalty to former President Goodluck Jonathan during the 2015 general elections.

They affected officers were said to have been carefully selected for backing Jonathan during the last 2015 general election.

Further checks in the military establishment in Abuja, also hinted that military officers who were believed to be loyal to the former national security adviser (NSA), Sambo Dasuki were also affected in the mass sacking.

The list showed that they were mainly from the South East, South South and a small percentage of them were from the North Central region of the country.

The development which is already causing some ripples in the military, according to political analysts, could cost the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration public goodwill.

A source said, “It is being seen as an act of ethnic card to checkmate those officers who were seen as posing danger to the Federal Government and it was resolved in the Presidency that they should be weeded out.”

But the concern as some observers also said was the implication of the sack on the psyche of the military institution and the public which was felt capable of truncating the nation’s democracy as the “systematic sacking “ of over 200 top military officers mainly from the southern part of the country was a decision difficult to defend by the federal government.

“The affected officers were sent text messages relieving them of their jobs and they were directed to pick their sack letters at specific locations without any reason given for terminating their appointments,” said a source in the Presidency which pleaded anonymity.

According to the source, the move allegedly masterminded by “some hawks“ in the presidency was aimed at weeding out all officers who were perceived to be loyal to the last regime and deemed to have played one role or the other favourable to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential election.

“The game plan is to remove all vestiges of the old regime, particularly those officers considered to be too intelligent and smart to challenge the status quo.

“Buhari is weary of being toppled a second time, given his ugly past experience. But unknown to him, this latest move of indiscriminate sacking of senior and middle level officers has divided the military and created rumblings in some quarters”, the source stated.


http://www.thetrentonline.com/fg-sacks-200-military-officers

ba7man:
Stop glorifying a common criminal that got into power using his millitary might.

Because he's rich and powerful doesn't change that fact that he's a criminal.

donem:
the evil genius himself.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8939ba6ede926cb0f05055605069d44e00e59cc9/0_84_4256_2554/master/4256.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=f1309b0f4e93ef991d5fa028409cdfda


This book contains one of the best descriptions of the psychology of Boko Haram I have read. A sect member explains to Andrew Walker why he kills in the name of religion. Imagine, he tells him, a bus depot full of people, some are travellers, some are hawking wares, some just idling and doing all sorts of things. The sect members, he explains, are the travellers, on their way to paradise; everyone else in the park is just hawking peanuts. Walker’s book is anecdotal, well researched and engaging. He has a novelist’s eye for story and situation. But the most important thing is that he knows Nigeria well, having lived there for about a decade, working for a local newspaper in Abuja, the Daily Trust, and later as a reporter for the BBC. Most of the non-historical accounts here come from his on-the-ground reporting done over many years.

The book tells the story of religious conflicts in northern Nigeria, going back to the early 19th century, and ending with the rise of Boko Haram. Walker references almost every important work written on the subject, beginning with founding myths and legends, European explorers’ accounts, official colonial transcripts, correspondences between traditional rulers and colonial administrators, and biographies of important political figures. He takes the reader back to the rise of Sunni Islam in northern Nigeria with Othman Dan Fodio, who is referred to as the Shehu, and his jihad against the nominally Muslim Hausa states.

Dan Fodio was a zealous reformist, conquering city state after city state, installing Fulani rulers over the Hausa populace, and in the process creating a feudal, theocratic system that impressed the British colonialists so much when they arrived in the later part of the 19th century that they decided to leave the system intact. As Walker puts it: “While northern Nigeria was a British territory, the colonial administrators allowed the emirs to retain their sharia law courts. This was part of governor general Lord Lugard’s system of ‘indirect rule’.”

Lugard, who “could almost have been drawn directly from the pages of Rudyard Kipling”, was famous for his indirect rule policy, which he had earlier experimented with in Uganda. Continuing the Kipling analogy, Walker writes that Lugard’s “great impetus was admiration for the British man-of‑action; men who had a will to make something of themselves, men who could – as they saw it – civilise the world, men who – as Kipling described in The Man Who Would Be King – fantasised about becoming something of a benign dictator in a savage world”. A sort of west African Cecil Rhodes, but working for the crown.

To create this new, civilised world of his fantasy, Lugard had to subjugate the local rulers. He wrote: “My maxim is not to go to war and shoot down natives if it can possibly be avoided, but if you do start, give them a lesson they will never forget.” He achieved this with his mainly native soldiers of the West Africa Frontier Force, subjugating Dan Fodio’s entire caliphate, replacing the emirs with his stooges, and culminating with the defeat and killing of the then Sultan Attahiru, a descendant of Dan Fodio.

Unfortunately the new world created was based on a shaky foundation; it left the status quo intact. The feudal aristocrats kept their power, and continued to use the traditional system of religion and family connections to maintain their privileges. With the active connivance of the colonial powers, the Hausa/Fulani rulers contrived to keep missionary-run schools, Christianity and other forms of western influence out of their regions. As a result, they gradually began to realise they stood at a disadvantage next to the more educated and westernised regions of the country. But opening up and accepting western education and administration put them in direct conflict with the more fundamentalist members of the society, people who believed that the only system acceptable to a Muslim umma is the religious one, meaning sharia.

The central aim of Walker’s book is to show how the history of northern Nigeria, from the time of Othman Dan Fodio until now has been shaped by the rise of Islam and the conflict between Islam and modernity. With example after example, Walker attempts to demonstrate how the non-egalitarianism of the Hausa-Fulani feudal system became the norm for Nigerian politics not just in the north, but all over the country, and how unsustainable this non-egalitarianism is in a modern democracy. Incessant religious conflicts over the years are explained within this narrative. With time, and sometimes with increasing foreign influence, the moderate Sufi brotherhoods of Qadiriyya and Tijaniyya, which had hitherto been the dominant sects in the north, began to be challenged by Salafi reformists such as the Izala Movement. Even outliers such as Maitatsine and Boko Haram are somehow presented as part of this reformist attempts, albeit misguided ones, but arising from genuine discontent with the political status quo.

One of the shortcomings of this narrative is that, like most books on religion in northern Nigeria, it focuses almost solely on Islam and its role in shaping the history of the region, relegating the sizeable non-Muslim population to the role of bystanders and victims. It is an ambitious account, and perhaps it would be a stronger one had the author narrowed his subject matter to the Boko Haram insurgency, which forms the strongest part of the book and contains its freshest material. Also, a lot of the Hausa words in the book are misspelt or erroneous – something the author can easily fix in a future edition. But there is no denying the author’s mastery of his subject and the usefulness of this overview to anyone interested in Nigerian history and the role of religion in Nigerian politics.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/jun/10/eat-the-heart-of-the-infidel-harrowing-nigeria-boko-haram-by-andrew-walker-review

druboon404:
I voted for Buhari a fulani man, I can't remember voting
for merlin or a miracle worker. So I never expected
Merlin's magic or miracles to happen, I voted for change
and not magic.16 years misrule can not be repaired in 1
year so Nigerians let's be patient.......
#IStandWithBuhari#
let the haters and Wailers continue wailing pdp 16 yrs of
looting and misrule they are looking for APC magician to
fix it in a year. Yeye.

ganisucks:
Mr Presido, be wary of Kachikwu. That man is a slippery cheetah hiding in the safari.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/stratfor_large__s_/public/main/images/buhari-nigeria-diary.jpg?itok=0qjvSYOa

Nigeria is a difficult country to govern, no matter who is president. And its current economic crisis — one that began as crude oil prices started tumbling in January 2014 — has only added to the challenges that President Muhammadu Buhari has faced in his first year in office. The economy, suffering from a general downturn, has contracted by almost 0.4 percent compared to last year. It is the first time since 2004 that Nigeria's economy has shrunk. The economic slump is increasing the already high rate of unemployment and pushing down salaries, among other indicators, which is contributing to a sense of malaise in Nigerian society. The security environment is not much better. Despite success against Boko Haram, a new wave of militancy in the oil-rich Niger Delta region is leaving oil and natural gas infrastructure in ruins, and persistent violence among Fulani herdsman in the middle of the country is breeding more sectarian angst.

Against this backdrop, on Monday, the 73-year-old Buhari boarded a plane for London, where for 10 days he will receive medical treatment for what he says is a persistent ear infection. Ill health could explain Buhari's erratic schedule of late. In the past three weeks, he has canceled several trips, including a two-day working visit to Lagos, the country's commercial hub, a trip to Ogoniland in the Niger Delta to break ground on an environmental cleanup project, and a trip to Senegal to attend a regional summit of the Economic Community of West African States. In his stead, Buhari sent Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Despite rumors that Buhari has Meniere's disease, an inner ear disorder, the important thing for Nigeria is that the president's duties are being affected at a time of rising political divisions and uncertainty, deepening economic challenges, and increasing sectarian and militant violence taking place in many corners of Nigeria.

What is a Geopolitical Diary?
Before leaving for London, Buhari asked rhetorically, "Is there anybody that doesn't fall sick?" But Buhari is not just anybody. In Nigeria, with its colorful political history, serious matters often come down to power politics. Even more important, Buhari has asserted himself as Nigeria's "Big Man," taking his place in a long line of powerful Nigerian presidents capable of tackling the country's woes. The Nigerian presidency was already a powerful institution, with limited checks on its power, but Buhari has amassed considerably more power — both for himself and for members of his tight inner circle. A president as powerful as Buhari, debilitated by a medical condition, is a troubling situation for a country dealing with as many crises as Nigeria. In the short term, Buhari's trip to London may serve to delay certain decisions that would normally be the prerogative of the president. (In Buhari's absence, Osinbajo is acting president.)

Complicating matters is the polarizing north-south schism in Nigeria, in which each half of the country believes it is owed its time in control of the presidency and the federal government's vast corresponding resources. The 2010 death of President Umaru Yaradua, a northerner, and the perceived usurpation of the presidency by Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner who was Yaradua's vice president, has inflamed the sense of entitlement held by some factions in the now-governing north. When Buhari won the presidency, the sentiment in the north was that an administration friendly to its regional interests would be in control of the country for at least the next four — and possibly eight — years. Consequently, the questions surrounding Buhari's health may intensify northern insecurities, especially since Osinbajo, the constitutional successor to the presidency, hails from the southwest. If Buhari were unable to finish his term, Osinbajo would come to power, and the existing political alliances would likely break apart.

Some of the pressures Buhari faces stem from the underlying tension between the Niger Delta and the rest of the country. Jonathan, who hailed from the Niger Delta region, brokered an amnesty agreement with the militants operating there and also gave the region patronage through his position, amnesty programs and security contracts. Buhari now must balance the interests of the coalition that helped him win the presidency with those of the economically vital Niger Delta, where he received minimal political support in last year's election. Under Jonathan, economic power and patronage was heavily concentrated in the delta region; any redistribution of that largesse under Buhari is a sensitive topic there. Buhari, to his credit, has extended the amnesty program, although at reduced funding, and maintained a few other patronage programs, but invariably some people, including members of politically powerful and militarily potent groups, will fall through the cracks. As the stream of patronage to the Niger Delta has slowed under Buhari, a renewed militancy has risen.

So when militants in the Niger Delta destroy oil and gas infrastructure, proclaiming that they want greater fairness for the disenfranchised people of the region, Buhari — the country's Big Man — cannot look weak by promising more of the country's shrinking resources to those who his fellow northerners see as criminals. Instead, Buhari must take a different approach, inviting prominent southerners such as Jonathan and former President Olusegun Obasanjo to travel to the seat of power, his presidential villa in Abuja, for consultations. Regardless of Buhari's power play, if both men are needed by Buhari to reduce militancy in the restive Niger Delta, then it is understood that concessions of some kind will be given to them. One logical concession would be a less aggressive investigation into corruption allegations levied against many former Jonathan administration officials.

A head of state suffering from a medical condition is a problem under the best of circumstances. But when a president as powerful — and under as much pressure — as Buhari seeks medical treatment in another country, the uncertainty can be disastrous.

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/nigerias-big-man-shows-his-achilles-heel

voyy:
This is why Islam is the best religion. we don't beg for money. Allah provides for us


u dnt beg, den wat do you do wen hosting naming ceremony or burial? poverty stricken fellows. collecting money as if ur life depends on it.

chloe7:
..

Serenity008:
Are u okay. Is it that your irregular menstrual flow is now affecting your brain.

How dare you insult an anointed man of God