₦airaland Forum

rvp20182:
Kalenjin are everywhere - you just dont see us - because we are experts in disguise you see us; you dont see us - in my home in Nairobi - we are the majority - out of 20 odd hse in our court - Kalenjin are 7 families, three are kikuyus, three luhyas, 2 kambas, one coastarian, one borana, one embu, two kisii, one Luo (built a small kindergaten). Kalenjin like cluster together - so even those 7 families we are a ring...all my immediate neighberbours are all kalenjin

As for Langata - that Ruto plotted for since 2007 - Kalenjin have been registering in Karen - we missed it by whisker in 2013 - and got it 2017 - I dont see how the comedian can beat Generali.

Imagine next Tuesday your President Kalenjin; Nairobi Governor Kalenjin; 10 other governors or deputy governos Kalenjin; then 55 mps !! Kalenjin are what nearly 7 million people by Now. 3rd largest tribe and you cannot see them. Nearly every watchman I see nowadays is a Kalenjin.

You better get off this tribal nonsense and focus on KENYA.

First of all I'm not against Kalenjins I'm against Ruto the thief of public property...Kalenjins are my relatives.

The fact that you know all the Kalenjins in your hood is a good evidence that Kales are few and countable....actually if meet a kalenjin in Nairobi I normally talk to them, its like meeting someone speaking swahili in France or Argentina

rvp2018:
When was Raila in the system . Ruto is the SYSTEM - he was in Moi's kitchen cabinet, run Uhuru first term, and even now has intelligence and counter-intelligence. This is how you win election - by foiling gov rigging plans. Raila has failed before because he was blind to gov activities. Ruto has invested in parrallel intelligence that knows everything that Uhuru ate for lunch and will have for supper. Once you do that...you can beat gov..and opposition combined...like Ruto has done for 5yrs. Just 72 hours to go.

We saw Raila exposing government secrets before...actually Ruto is still learning from Raila even today
Everything he's doing Raila done before....and Ruto is now possessed with all the demons that have been stopping Raila from becoming president.

And BTW apart from calling the media and cry there's nothing that Ruto can do even if he knows he's being rigged out

rvp2018:
Yet Sakaja a kalenjin is going to become Nairobi governor and we have Kalenjin Mp in Nairobi. You need to update yourself. Kalenjin are everywhere - just not that many in slums yet. If you go to any university - they are the majority.

I've lived in Nairobi for about 12years, I know every corner of the city
Kalenjins in Nairobi are as few as Maasai in Eldoret...that's why if you want to annoy Sakaja call him a kalenjin in public
The other one MP was lucky he got a Jubilee party Ticket which made him win....I can bet he will lose is very early in the morning like one hour after the polling station open.

You'll find Kalenjin in a place called Tetrapack slums near Mukuru Kwa Reuben....I always see them trek to Donholm

rvp20182:
He is half-luhya anyway . His grandfather was one first mps of Mt elgon. I know his father - he owns a bar in Landmawe. Kalenjin for 25yrs of Moi were privelleged - mostly hired to civil services - and add to fact that we have large arable land - so it's unlikely you'll see us in slums.

Also by our nature - after we have gone through the torture of circumscion and military training - we become reserved, manly and do our things silently. We are also very insular and we only mostly keep company of our own. We are not going to make friends with you unless there is no kalenjin near us.

We are many - just silently - going through our life - which is why most Kenyans will rather vote Ruto a kalenjin - with our humility - than you proud and loud Luos.

We can assure you - even with Ruto as PORK - you wont see us in your face. Unless when you get into the wrong - the police officer will likely be a kalenjin.

Kalenjins fear other tribes esp Kikuyus they think they're too smart for them that's why they become parochial when they go out of their village.
..they also don't like to think and work smart, if a Kalenjin doesn't get employed he'd rather stay with his mother in the village forever with their poverty

When my cousins from that side come to visit me in Nairobi they behave as if they're carrying a million bob in their pocket and muggers have noticed...very insecure

Gama12:
You're a true definition of tribal-EGOcentric. How is sakaja a Kalenjin when he can't identify himself as one? Or is Kalenjin so inferior to warrant liking?

Sakaja has a root in sabot; based In Transnzoia and mt. Elgon. his mother is a Luhya. But he has never identified himself anywhere close to that weird tribe of sabot. WHY?

Sakaja can only win Nairobi gubernatorial if he identifies himself as a Luo, Luhya, or Kikuyu. Anything from that will be a boner and clear miscalculation.

I saw his adverts on TV he had to fix Raila's name and pics

rvp2018:
Not everything gov tries succeed. Uhuru and his gang definitely did attempt to initiate tribal clashes in the hope that kikuyus will reject Ruto.

Their plan was foiled because Ruto has intelligence on them.

Which tribes do these guy belong to - I think Kalenjin was CyberCafe attendant.

9 Moi University students charged over Uasin Gishu threat leaflets
They were granted a bond of Sh1 million or cash bail of Sh500,000.
In Summary
•The suspects included Ronald Odhiambo, Martin Rodgers, Josphat Chacha, Ian Muibanda, Brian Kipkorir, Denis Wakhanya, Beatrice Wanhari, Samwel Juma, and Ann Aoko.

Ruto having Intel can't stop the government from doing it....what will he do?
I just watched the Cabinet Secretary response to Ruto and Co and he doesn't look like someone who has been cornered

rvp2018:
Thankfully they have. This week desperate Uhuru tried to incite tribal clashes - by you can imagine - writting leaflets warning his own kikuyu people - to vote for Ruto or be attacked - then they deployed paramilitary police on the kalenjin-kikuyu "hotspots" - and their plan was to burn a few kikuyu and kalenjin homes - to spark tribal clashes - so they wont vote for Ruto.

This akin to Moi in 1992 - because Moi wanted to evict a million of immigrants from Rift valley so they wont vote. So what do you do - spark tribal clashes - have a million people killed, raped, injured, properties burnt - and they are displaced. Coming voting day - you have reduced the opponent voting block.

This was one of Uhuru card - apart from many others.

US gov issued advisory saying Kisumu(Raila home) was likely place for violence not rift valley - and that killed their hate propaganda and attempt to incite violence.

What has helped is that Kikuyu community have refused to be pawns of Uhuru Kenyatta and have totally rejected him. The message for Uhuru and his elite has been simple....if there is any war you want....take your kids to the frontline.

This is why I think we will have peace.

So far so good - they failed. I have just seen kenya top security official talking like rained on cats. I hope they called out rest of their rigging and sabotage plans.

Elections if they are free and fair - Kenya will be very very okay. If gov interferes brazenly - then we get a civil war.

With the kind of unemployment we have, q politician a easily trigger war ...you can't he has tried and fail, it's either he didn't try do it

rvp2018:
Personally I dont want war. In 2007 - I spent all the time escaping and hidding from being conscripted to fight in that violence. They were people moving house to house checking to see if anybody had remained at home who should be out fighting - if you ageset was active warrior group. Eventually I was evacuated by my employer after they charted a flight. Learn from 2007 and never allow yourself to be caught on the offside.

Again you need to understand Kalenjin are not folks who fear war with anybody. Not even the police. In 2007 all prov adminstration were destroyed - some DOS and Chief killed - policemen too.

So you're right Kalenjin, Somalis and Maasai have the same mentality - they are warlike - meaning they see war or fighting as normal activity - in fact before arrival of Brits - a kalenjin man did nothing except fight, go raid for cattle - and all that - when they were active warrior group - so taking war to them is just going back to way things were before the British civilization.

Maasai have Morans, Kalenjin Murenik, Somalis Mooryan. The same word. This specialization of having a standing military ageset.

I suggest you familiraize yourselves with 1992 - Kalenjin attacked Luo, kikuyus, Gusii and Luhyas simultaneously. Luos are very smart of all tribes - they normally the first to raise white flag and havent been massacred in any number. They know the ferocity of kalenjin and will never allow a war with kalenjin to last a day.

In 1992..I was young - I use to listen to BBC radio then - there was nothing on KBC then - it would be "Kabila la ndogo la Moi versus other tribes".

The Kenyan Bantus don't like war maybe because they're more civilised most live in urban centres and have interacted with each other....
The Kalenjins are still stuck in old way of life and thinking....you can easily spot them out in Nairobi and they're not more than 2k

chrisooblog:
I don't how it works in Kenya, but never underestimate the power of the government in control to mess things up especially if they don't like you.

The fact that he doesn't have the backing of Uhuru means Ruto will probably be fighting the toughest battle he's ever had to face.

Ruto is still learning...the only thing he have is "big mouth" ....Raila understand the systems a hundred times better than Ruto

rvp2018:
I assume you're asking me this.
There are a big distinction btw reality and intent;
The reality of our politics is ethnic; and it was always violent; even before the British arrived.
I think you're shifting the blame from politicians to someone like me who is an analyst.
It's upon you to protect yourselves from violence - like I have done - I warned guys months ago to get their passports ready to evacuate.
Dont be caught nabbing again.
I know the actors - and I know what they are capable of.
Forget about what happened in the past - focus on the future.
The immediate future is Kenya is going through a very political risk period - because of the actors - Ruto and Kalenjin will not accept a rig process without a lot of bloodshed.
I am also aware that Ruto has the backing of Uganda and South Sudan - and if he decided to real go hard - we can get a civil war.
There is nothing special about kenya - Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, name them - mismanage your politics - and you have war.

You should count yourself fortunate because I know the beast and I can help you understand it.

Now if you want my help to understand the geneis of violence in RV - I can help you.
1992 was Moi instigated violence - very similar to what Uhuru was trying this week - except he failed because he is a drunkard.
Moi knew the kalenjin self defense mechanism - all he needed in 1992 was to trigger violence - by burning Kalenjin houses along the borders
from Molo to Mt elgon.
Kalenjin once a war cry is sounded - respond within an hour - once they establish that indeed kalenjin have been attacked - the rules of engagement changes - it war mode.

In 1992 - I was in upper primary - I was still uncut innocent boy- one afternoon we hear this wierd wailin or cry - attack molo attack molo attack molo- that suddenly stop and is picked in the next ridge - it goes like that that - attack molo - 3 or 4 times - the first woman in a village repeat - and it stops. The next village first woman - the cry went I am told to as far as transmara - in one hour - it had covered almost 300kms - attack molo attack molo!

Immediatetly our school bell rung - we were told that school was closed until further notice - male students to walk on the right to home - female to walk on the left. Now school was half boarding - half day. I was boarding. We took like an hour to pack our stuff.

By time we are get out - the school was teeming with maybe 1,000 warriors all armed - all silent - as we waited for transport - there number had increased to cover entire school field - 10,000 men . The entire kipsigis land had mobilized thousands of warriors in an hour - all assembled at nearest village assembly point...schools then...village joint next village..next school.The they began treking through Mau forest to get to Nakuru...as we heading home. That was longest file of people I had ever seen in my life all armed to the teeth - all dressed now in shukas.

The rest of people who are not in warrior class - cook food and leave on the road. Nobody speaks or say anything. It total silences - as war is on. The following morning - there was thousands of cows, bicycles, name it - out of the forest - I can imagine destruction visited on Molo that day was huge.

You need to understand kalenjin war infrastructure is unlike anything you've seen. It the total mobilization of all warrior class - 15yrs each - 15-35yrs old - in shortest possible time - you dont want to wake that monster or worse arm it.

Rarely have kalenjin been united - many subtribes - rarely are threat seen as that huge. Ruto and Moi were first to unite them.Ruto has united them in a cause - and I am afraid Ruto is so ambitious he could do the worse - which to arm kalenjin with guns.

That will be the END OF KENYA as we know.

Ruto has a huge leverage because he knows at sound of his cry - a million in my estimate warriors will be available for war - in all corners of kalenjin land. Now it depends on him - if he arms them - kenya is gone!

Dont be found nabbing - dont buy into propaganda that Kalenjin were assisted by Moi or police or planned or trained. Kalenjin have incredible traditional war infrastructure like no one in East Africa. This exist by default - and is watered every year - by training of new warriors - in peace or war - and sit there just waiting for a war cry. Ruto hold all the cards now.

Biggest advantage is the numbers that can be raised in shortest possible time....other communities will struggle to convince people to join war...kalenjin at sound of war cry saying ATTACK XYZ - will all respond - and descend on XYZ immediately - questions asked later.

Seems like you want war or something � �
Most Kalenjins are just like Kenyan Somalis who pretend that they are against terrorism while they enjoy inside them...this is one of the reasons while Ruto should/will not be the president until he matures

Most Kalenjins have nothing to lose since almost all of them are in their native place...but the question is who are you going to attack if not Kikuyus

2007 you had a backup of Luos and almost all other tribes that's even the police took sides...this time don't dare

obaaderemi:
I'm telling you this because we've been there. We threw out a president Jonathan who grew Nigeria's economy, kept petroleum products prices down and ensured food was cheap. We brought in an aged Buhari in the name of anti- corruption. Now the economy has taken a tailspin the kind of which we have never experienced even in the worst of military rule.

This old people don't understand the new realities when it comes to modern economy. And by nature they're stubborn and inflexible, thinking they know more than everyone else.
They're old and lazy and often do not understand the role of fiery nationalism in modern natiion building.

That's Buhari and Jonathan for you...for us we're comparing an old man with positive history vs a thief with nothing but evil history and evil intentions

rvp20182:
kalenjin are not ostentatious people.. poverty you see in slums and in out migration to provide labour...this still rare in kalenjin land because commercial farming still make enough money to sustain them.The rest of Kenya it's a quarter of an acre per person..not enough to live on without selling your labour .The maize,wheat,barley, potatoes you feed on come from where exactly if not kalenjin land mostly...even in tranzoia luhya live in plots while kalenjin own big farms

Most are inherited land of which they're not utilised....or the kalenjin rent it out to Kikuyus and that's one of the reasons why Kalenjin are always bitter with Kikuyus,just jealousy.
You'll find a kalenjin owning a 30acre but goes to buy vegetables to a kikuyu who owns a 50/100 plot...
And check the kind of houses there...those are slums in the village ...that's poverty.

I know Uasin Gishu and Tranzoia produce allot of maize, but it's not profitable

rvp2018:
Maybe you're half pokot or tugen. Otherwise where I come from - we have always been one richest kenyan tribes. Kipsigis, Nandis and Keiyo definitely feed kenya.

My dad is Kipsigis originally from Bomet but brought up in Lessos Nandi County....Mother from Tigoni Kiambu County.
Actually the kipsigis are the richest and more civilised.

I grew up in Uasin Gishu and Nakuru Counties, you see Kales owning a 10acre land but living 8²m thatched mud house, six indigenous malnourished cows that give him 1cup of milk per day.
....theres very high rural poverty there than can't be compared with majority of other Counties all because of culture and laziness.
...apart from Nandi Hills where there's tea,what else comes from Nandi and Keiyo that has impact on other parts Kenya?

rvp2018:
We got 72hrs to election - and then Kalenjin once again sit on your for 10yrs - min - but 25yrs - like Moi did - is very possible as demographics are changing- and most of you are yet to recover. Luo influence who? Most of you guys are farm hands in our farms Almost every household where I come from - there is Luo, Gusii and Luhya we have employed to pluck our tea, till our land and do such menial jobs.

If not working hard manual labour - you're living in Nairobi, Mombasa and name every slum in Kenya.Do you see our people in slums influencing slums culture - of course not. Do you even want to compare yourselves to kalenjin who produce most of the food in kenya - if we stopped growing maize, wheat, tea, beef, sheeps, dairy, name - kenya will be on it's knees.

Only Kikuyus can speak to us - and I think after 2007 beating - they have accepted a power deal that will see power rotate btw Kalenjin and Kikuyu - and Uhuru is having lose bowel movements - as we speak because kikuyus are committed to the power deal.

Remove Kikuyus and Kalenjin from kenya - and you've nothing left - just bunch of tribes with half an acre of land at best, unable to feed themselves, filling up slums, and working hard menial labour for most of their lives. This is why Kalenjin and Kikuyu sat down - and realised why fight - they have done 60yrs - they can do another 60yrs together. Uhuru has tried for personal interest to undo the power pact but his people have said NO. This what this election really boils down to.

The rigging schemes, the attempted violence, so far have been nipped in the bud, and the usual suspect have booked the exit flight out of kenya. Kenya might just be lucky to escape a civil war.

Come wednesday - Ruto will begin the most painful purge on dynasties ever undertaken in kenya - Miguna Miguna will probably lead it. By then most of the cowards will be running to exile.

Then you'll once again know - like you did in Moi era - Kenya has only few men - the rest are sissies like you.

Worse case scenario - I will be watching from Europe as you get butchered.

I'm half Kalenjin half kikuyu and I can see anything to be proud of in being a Kalenjin.
The Kalenjin is next to Maasai and turkana when it comes to civilisation.
Despite being one of the largest tribes 98% of them have never been out of their five counties.

There's no reason to support Ruto apart from tribalism

obaaderemi:
What is really wrong with Africa?
Why is it easy for you to consider voting in old spent politicians who are not in tune with the times against younger and more savvy politicians?

We don't have the luxury of putting in power people like sleepy Joe in this part of the world.
No wonder Africa is a mess.

Our best best president ever is Kibaki who was elderly, we choose our leaders looking at their history not propaganda and insults ...the problem with africa is bad leadership led by greedy selfish individuals like our DP who will definitely be the next opposition leader

You want us to have the most corrupt man in africa for president just because he is young ?

NTSA:
A little insight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JBurCanJpg

I watched it live ....Ndii must defend his side....2017 election was tampered with
Look what IEBC said today

rvp2018:
You're starting to become incoherent - when face with facts.

For example - Bungoma - Ruto has Weta and entire Ford-K crew. In 2017 - thanks to Speaker Lusaka - they improved from 12% in 2013 to 24-30% in 2017. All opinion polls shows Ruto has flipped Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Example 2 - Machakos - Ruto has Muthama & has retained Mutua - and this time round Kalonzo is not Raila DPORK - there a lot of disaffection in Ukambani - the usual 90 is impossible.

I have added more data - showing this election is a repeat of last time - prepare for premium tears.

I can also post such graphs that show Raila leading...but we'll argue forever on that

The other thing you should looks is voter turn out...thuraku kuumera plus votes stuffing managed to 86%
This time it will be about 70%, then minus 25% of Raila...Ruto will endup with 50% of Mt Kenya votes losing 3m votes

...and remember that 2017 election was not free and fair...there were almost 2m ghost votes

rvp2018:
Sometimes all you need is an excel.

I have analyzed - and assumed Ruto & Raila gains 25% from each of these top 10 strongholds. Although we know Ruto will gain more - but also Mt kenya generally turn out more.

Conclusion. Raila get a million more votes. Raila loses a million votes. Ruto loses 1 million votes. Raila gains a million votes.

What remain - the 1.5M gap we had in 2017 - Raila has to increase his votes by 800K - to beat Ruto by 100K. I hope you follow the logic.

So for Raila to close the gap - he still need another a million vote to beat Ruto by 100K votes.That is 50% of Mt Kenya - WE KNOW THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE - and therefore we know he CANNOT WIN

We're using the nullified election as a base but it's OK just for argument

Uhuruto got 12% in Bungoma,10% in Machakos...meaning Ruto should get 35% for you to say he has added 25%...which is not possible remember how hard they tried in vain back in 2017

rvp2018:
Gain 25% in Mt kenya (10 counties) - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast (5,3,4)...end of day..you're doing nothing.
Raila will gain in 10 counties in Mt Kenya & possibly 2 Gusii Counties (12) -
Ruto will gain in 13 counties by even bigger margins (as some have completely flipped) - Bungoma, Tranzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia,Machakos,Makueni,Kitui, Taita Taveta, kwale, Mombasa & Kilifi.
The Northern Kenya - From Turkana to Mandera remain 50-50 game - and they have very few votes.

The issue is how many votes does those counties have?
Kikuyus/Gema have almost 6m votes across the country.

....while the entire western have 2m, Coast 1.9m, Eastern 1.9m...Uhuruto got a good percentage from it...while Raila got almost zero in Mt Kenya

rvp2018:
They will even be more biased - it's called a civil war.

So which tribe would the kalenjins be attacking....
If not Kikuyus there won't be any civil war in RV.

The government won't take rural demonstrations seriously

rvp2018:
Where was the mighty gov in 2007.

They were biased...I was there during the whole PEV

rvp2018:
Gain 25% in Mt kenya - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast...end of day..you're doing nothing.

Western,Coast,LowerEastern their combined votes are equal to those of Mt Kenya including Nakuru and others

2017 Raila got about 5% of Mt Kenya
Uhuruto got about 20% of those regions you mentioned combined

Even if Ruto will get 30% he would have added 10% only, while Raila will add 20%

rvp2018:
Kalenjin are the most prepared of them all - because every male - at his mid teens is taken through a rudimentary military training -in the forest for a month now coz of schools (my father went for six month - my grandfather a year - I took 1.5months - a military bootcamp where you trained to make weapons and fight )- the rest really is to upgrade or not upgrade their weapons. Those that have guns like Pokots - though just few hundrends - are tough nuts.

Now imagine nearly a million of 18-30yrs old (active warrior ageset) already trained on basic warfare against kenya gov entire force of mere 100k. In 2007 - it took 48hrs to evict 0.6m people leading Ruto wrongly to ICC for crimes against humanity - gov embarrassed by their ineffectiveness created a fake story that Ruto had organized and trained warriors - total falsehood.

Now they want to sent water canoons - like someone in kalenjinland will be demonstrating in the streets - nope - if war occur kalenjin will fight almost exclusively at night.

Hahaaa what are you trying to say here....that the government can be defeated by some primitive villagers with arrows

68816419:
I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

This is true....and if Raila gets 25% of kikuyu votes he'll definitely win

Obiano13:
Proper poll by Centre for African Progress. Remember they predicted the 2017 election to the dot. Odinga leading at 52 %, the new opposition candidate trailing at 45%.
https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2022/07/centre-for-african-progress-poll-projects-raila-win-with-52pc-votes/

This will be the reality next week