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Why "Vaccinated" Birds Still Die (The Cold Chain Secret) "But I vaccinated them!" This is the most painful thing a farmer can say while picking up dead birds. If you buy a LaSota vaccine and it gets warm for even 10 minutes before it hits the water, you are just giving your birds "expensive water." The Newcastle virus vaccine is live. If the "Cold Chain" breaks, from the shop to your farm, the vaccine dies. Also, never vaccinate a bird that is already stressed or showing signs of CRD; the vaccine will actually trigger the outbreak instead of preventing it. Has anyone here ever vaccinated and still faced an outbreak? Let’s talk about where it went wrong. |
Here is a tip to help you with Feed wastage (The Secret of FCR) Are your birds eating your profit? Many farmers think giving plenty of feed is enough, but what matters is how much of that feed turns into meat. This is called Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR). If you pour a 25kg bag into your pen and your birds only add 10kg of meat, you are losing money! To fix this, check your feeders. If they are too low, birds will "scratch" and waste feed on the floor. If they are too high, birds won't eat enough to grow. Adjust feeders to the level of the bird's back. Pro Tip: Small, frequent feedings boost metabolism better than one big "dump" of feed. |
Danger of Afternoon Feeding Its hot as hell today, Many farmers think they are helping their birds by keeping feeders full 24/7. But during this heat period, afternoon feeding is a death trap. Digestion creates "Metabolic Heat." When a bird eats, its internal temperature rises. If it eats during the hottest part of the day (12 PM – 4 PM), its body temperature will "clash" with the weather heat. This leads to instant heart failure. The Strategy: * Withdraw feed by 10 AM. Reintroduce feed at 4:30 PM when the air is cooler. Don't worry—they won't starve; they will actually grow better! |
IMPROVING GROWTH WITH FISBROIL There are many ways to get your broilers to hit market weight in record time; one effective way is using a growth catalyst like Fisbroil Tonic. Fisbroil is a super-concentrated growth promoter packed with essential amino acids, vitamins, and minerals that standard feeds sometimes lack. It works by improving the Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR), meaning your birds convert every bag of feed into solid muscle and weight rather than waste. It also acts as a powerful appetite booster. If your birds are not eating well due to heat or stress, a dose of Fisbroil in their water gets them back to the feeder immediately. Faster growth, stronger bones, and better immunity mean you can sell earlier and save on extra feed costs. details on when and how to use this booster for the best results are I the material attached to the to post |
One super effective way of reducing heat stress that many people overlook is planting trees to provide shade on the farm. Apart from just shading your birds from direct sun rays, trees also provide oxygen and create a natural cooling effect through transpiration. Think of trees as "natural fans" for your coop. While zinc roofs trap heat and bake your birds, trees like Plantain, Neem (Dogonyaro), or Pawpaw lowers the surrounding temperature significantly. Just ensure the trees are not too close to the roof to avoid predators or falling branches. Nature is cheaper than electricity, start planting g trees the very day you dig your foundation Do you have trees around your poultry house, or is your farm standing in the hot sun? |
PEAK SEASON FOR NEWCASTLE DISEASE Harmattan and Newcastle Disease (ND) are five and six, Many poultry farmers think Newcastle Disease (ND) only happens by "bad luck." Truth is, the Harmattan season is the peak time for ND in Nigeria. Why? Because the dry wind carries the virus like dust from one farm to another. Small cold wey catch your birds fit turn to "twisted neck" before you know it. As the weather dey change, the stress makes it easy for the virus to enter. Abeg, don't wait for your birds to start gasping. don't fail to Vaccinate your birds as at when due, LaSota is cheaper than losing 1,000 birds. |
Tohsynetita1:No bro, its not super story ...... Yes, I wrote a very insightful ebook on the disease, but I believe sharing my story is more impactful than just a sales pitch. its not very easy proving a thing that was functional more than 11 years ago but I ll try. The old abandoned farm is mostly unrecognizable right now, it's been more than a decade but I’m going to get some photos to clear the air since you’ve called me out. after so many years the original poultry house structure is being converted into an apartments as we speak, but the farm also had 22 concrete fish ponds; what's left of the ponds is still there. You don't build 22 ponds and abandon them for no reason, right?.... I think a few shots of the old place is the most I can do. |
Tohsynetita1:Funny, but it's infact a name of a very deadly poultry disease that affects many types of birds It got its name from Newcastle, Newcastle as in, Newcastle City not Newcastle United FC It's called Newcastle disease because the first officially recognized and scientifically documented outbreak occurred in Newcastle in 1926 |
Wetin be Heat Stress (No be disease o) Heat stress no be sickness like Newcastle or Gumboro. many of the videos and pictures way plenty plenty birds dey die the same time for people farm Na heat stress dey cause am. Na condition wey happen when weather hot pass wetin bird body fit handle. Chicken no dey sweat like human, so once heat too much, their body go begin struggle to balance temperature. Na that struggle we dey call heat stress. Why Birds Dey Suffer & Die The main wahala be say birds no dey sweat, and heat go cause metabolic imbalance inside their body. As dem dey pant to cool down, dem go lose too much carbon dioxide. This one go scatter their body chemistry (acid-base balance). Blood go too alkaline, organs no go function well, breathing go worsen, and body temperature go keep rising. Na this internal imbalance, no be just heat alone dey kill the birds fast. How Dangerous is heat stress? Heat stress wicked die. E no just reduce growth or egg production, e fit wipe full poultry in one afternoon. Farmers wey don experience am know say na serious financial loss and heartbreak. One hot day fit destroy months of hard work. healthy heavy birds go just dey kpai one by one just like that Wetin You Fit Do (Quick Tips) Although I don fully explain in details for my online book how to make such your birds no die from heat stress below na some of the other steps you fit take * Give clean, cool water always * Improve ventilation for pen * Reduce overcrowding * Feed birds early morning or evening * Add vitamins/electrolytes * Provide shade or cooling system No relax o, each of these get deeper method wey suppose follow, Heat stress no be something to ignore. As Nigerian farmer, you must prepare before dry season reach. Once heat don come, na only smart and ready farmers dey survive am. Small Advice Truth be say, knowing these small tips no enough. If you really wan protect your investment, you need full understanding and correct system. That na why I create my Ebook on Heat Stress Management in Poultry. na simple, practical guide wey show you everything from prevention to emergency action, based on Naija conditions. Make you no wait till loss happen before you act. Your birds depend on you. na the book be this: https://selar.com/6m67217342 I active o, any question way you get on the matter of heat stress drop am, I go still answer am for here
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If you dey rear birds, you need to shine your eyes well because some signs dey hide. One of the dangerous signs of Newcastle disease na paralysis. You fit notice say your bird go dey limp like say nail shook him leg, wings go don dey heavy am to carry, or the bird no go fit stand again sef. Sometimes dem go just lie down, no strength to move. This one mean say the Newcastle virus don attack their nervous system. No take am play at all. Once you see this kind sign, quickly separate the bird from others and check your flock well. Early action fit save the rest of your birds. every thing way you go carry know this signs, dey inside the material I attach for that first post for up, check am out |
PICK THE RIGHT BIRD FOR THE RIGHT PURPOSE No be all broilers be the same, so no just buy any breed because others dey rush am. Every farmer get different goal, some want birds wey grow very fast for quick sales, even within 4 weeks. Some prefer taller birds wey dey attract buyers easily. Others choose based on weather, since some breeds handle heat better while others perform well in cold conditions. 2. [b]BEST BROILERS FOR FAST GROWTH [/b]1st: ROSS 308 (90%)— This one has the highest weight. 2nd: ARBOR ACRE (80%) — Also heavy, but not as much as Ross. 3rd: COBB 500 (75%) — Average weight. 4th: MARSHALL (60%) — It is taller, but has less meat and weight compared to others. |
Ebi212:There is no cure for Newcastle disease once a bird is infected. Treatment focuses on supportive care: providing multivitamins, electrolytes, and antibiotics to prevent secondary infections. the best strategy is prevention through vaccination and keeping the farm clean to protect the rest of the flock, in detail I have clearly explained how to perform ND vaccination in the material I attached to the post at the very top of this thread, check it out |
Ebi212:in Summary, you can do it in 2 Key ways 1. Use polythene sheets or cement bags to cover the windows. This is applicable only when you are brooding birds between 1 to 3 weeks old, depending on the climate in your region. 2. Use charcoal pots or gas brooders to heat the brooding area. Heating is primarily for young birds, not older birds that have already grown feathers. Make sure you constantly monitor the temperature in the brooder so it doesn't get too hot........ check out the material I attached to the post at the top of this thread |
There is a huge relationship between temperature control and rapid growth when it comes to broiler production; they be like Davido and Chioma. I remember one particular cycle when the Harmattan was harsh, and I saw many farmers lose birds not to disease, but to cold. You see, temperature regulation during brooding is the true engine of growth. In those first seven days, a chick’s body cannot manage heat on its own. If the brooder is cold, they huddle together to stay warm instead of eating. And once they stop eating, that early growth window closes forever. Another thing that cold does is force your chicks to grow feathers early. Instead of focusing the feed consumed on increasing their body weight, what you’ll see is early feathering. I always tell people: don’t just trust the thermometer; trust the birds. When they spread out evenly and make a soft, contented sound, you know the heat is perfect. But if they are crowding under the heat source, they are struggling. Proper heat ensures their metabolism runs at full speed, allowing them to convert every gram of feed into body mass. When the environment is stable, the birds are active, their digestion is efficient, and the growth is explosive. Na who control heat dey get heavy birds. All these precise tips and brooding strategies are fully detailed in the guide posted above. |
Richman2023:There are many disinfectants available at supply stores but for me I use either vinkokill or Glutaraldehyde. They are highly effective at killing viruses, bacteria, and fungi.
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Richman2023:There are many reputable brands, search social media you ll see what people are using, how you use them also matters |
One mistake wey fit quietly slow down broiler growth na sudden feed change. If you switch from one feed type to another abruptly, birds fit reduce feed intake or even stop eating for a while. And once feeding drops, growth slows immediately. To avoid this, always transition gradually. For example, when moving from starter to finisher feed, Do you know there is a particular size your birds need to weigh before switching, NO switching does not depend on age it depends on Grams and Kg because the speed at which birds grow depends on the farmer handling the birds. like me I can hit 1.3KG on exactly day 21 (3 weeks) mix them step-by-step over a few days: Day 1–2: 75% starter, 25% finisher Day 3–4: 50% starter, 50% finisher Day 5–6: 25% starter, 75% finisher This helps birds adjust smoothly and maintain steady growth. Having a clear feeding structure like this makes management easier, one of the reasons I took time to organize a simple feeding chart farmers can follow without guesswork. the guide is attached to the first post above |
Today make we look at one part wey many farmers no really understand; the nervous system. Na here the disease dey show its real damage. From experience, Newcastle no just stop for lungs or digestion. Sometimes, e go deeper enter the bird’s nerve system. When that one happen, the signs go change. You fit see bird wey dey fine before suddenly become weak, e no fit stand well again. Some go twist their neck, others go dey turn in circles like say something no dey right for their head. You go even notice wing dropping or loss of balance. As we dey talk, once it reach this stage, e serious well well. From wetin I’ve seen over time, recovery at this point no dey easy. That’s why I always say—focus on preventing am early, no be when signs don show finish. There’s a reason I took time to explain this thing step by step. farmers wey truly understand how this disease works no dey panic when others dey lose birds. check am out here: https://9rk6y0./SampleChapter |
I remember one particular production cycle that really reminded me why broiler farming is more of a system than a gamble. Around that time, many farmers in my area were complaining—feed cost high, birds no dey add weight as expected, and market buyers were rejecting anything that didn’t look solid. But for me, I approached that cycle differently. Before the chicks even arrived, everything was already in place. Brooder well prepared, temperature stable, water clean, environment controlled. You see, one thing I’ve come to understand over the years is this—big broilers are not grown at the end, they are built from the beginning. If the foundation is correct, the rest becomes easier to control. The day the chicks came in, I didn’t rush anything. I placed them gently and just observed. That habit of observation is something many farmers overlook, but na there the real information dey. Chicks no dey talk, but their behavior dey speak clearly. When they are evenly spread, active, and curious, you know say your setup correct. That early balance sets the tone for fast growth. Feeding strategy is another area where I stay very intentional. Broilers are designed to grow fast, but only if you support them properly. From the first day, I ensure feed is always available. No gaps, no delays. If birds ever lack feed, even for a short time, growth slows down immediately. And once growth slows, catching up becomes difficult. As we dey talk, consistency for feeding na one of the strongest secrets wey no too dey obvious. Some farmers go give plenty feed at once and relax, but I prefer steady availability. The birds eat more naturally that way, and the weight gain becomes more uniform. Water, too, I treat with the same level of seriousness. Clean, cool water is just as important as feed. If water quality drops, intake drops—and once that happens, feeding reduces automatically. I make sure drinkers are cleaned regularly and positioned properly so birds can access them without stress. Sometimes I support them with vitamins, especially during key stages, just to keep their system balanced. Space management is another factor that separates average results from excellent ones. I always calculate my stocking properly. When birds have enough space, everything improves—movement, feeding, even air quality. Overcrowding might look like you’re maximizing space, but in reality, you’re reducing performance. Birds compete more, stress increases, and growth becomes uneven. I prefer controlled density, because uniform birds sell faster and better. Then comes temperature and ventilation—very critical, especially with our Nigerian weather. Heat stress can quietly reduce feed intake without many farmers noticing. When the environment is too hot, birds will pant, drink more water, and eat less. And once feed intake drops, weight gain slows down. So I pay close attention to airflow, curtain positioning, and heat sources. Sometimes na small adjustment, but the impact big well well. Vaccination is something I handle with precision. Not just doing it, but doing it correctly. Timing, bird condition, water control—everything matters. Healthy birds respond better, and once immunity is strong, growth continues without interruption. Because the truth is, disease is one of the fastest ways to lose weight gain progress. One principle I always work with is this: remove anything that can slow growth. Whether it’s stress, poor feeding access, dirty water, bad air, or weak management—once you eliminate these obstacles, the birds naturally grow to their potential. You’re not forcing growth; you’re allowing it. By the fourth week of that cycle, the difference was already clear. The birds were active, uniform, and adding weight steadily. No unnecessary setbacks, no uneven sizes. And by market time, they came out solid—exactly what buyers were looking for. That’s why when people ask me how to grow big broilers quickly, I don’t give them complicated answers. It’s about doing the simple things correctly, every single day. Preparation, feeding, water, space, temperature, and consistency. No shortcuts. Truth be told, what I’ve shared here is just the surface of the system I use on my farm. Over time, I had to organize everything—from brooding to feeding patterns to vaccination timing—into something more structured, something repeatable. That was what led me to put everything together in one place. Because knowing these things is one level… but having a clear, step-by-step system you can follow without guessing—that’s a different advantage entirely. If you want the full step-by-step system I personally use to grow big, market-ready broilers without guesswork, you can check it out here: https://selar.com/8y3o838414 As we dey say for farm, “na who prepare well dey enjoy result.” And once you understand the full system, growing big birds no go be luck again—it becomes something you can repeat anytime.
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*NATIONAL HEAT STRESS ADVISORY FOR POULTRY FARMERS IN NIGERIA* *March 2026 | Industry Advisory | Agriculture & Food Security* *NIGERIA FACES RISING POULTRY MORTALITY AMID EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS* Nigeria is currently experiencing elevated temperatures and widespread heat stress conditions, as indicated by recent advisories from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). Across several regions of the country, poultry farmers are reporting increasing cases of mortality, reduced feed intake, declining egg production, and heightened disease vulnerability. This development signals a critical threat to poultry production, with implications for food security, livelihoods, and inflation dynamics within the agricultural sector. * Note that this is no longer a routine seasonal occurrence, but a climate-driven production risk requiring urgent and coordinated intervention. *WHY POULTRY BIRDS ARE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO HEAT STRESS* Poultry birds lack sweat glands and depend primarily on panting to regulate body temperature. Under extreme heat conditions: • Birds experience respiratory distress and metabolic imbalance • Feed intake declines significantly, weakening immunity • Heat load overwhelms physiological limits, leading to sudden mortality • Productivity declines across both broilers and layers The current heat index—combining temperature and humidity—has exceeded safe physiological thresholds in many parts of Nigeria. *WHAT FARMERS MUST DO IMMEDIATELY* *1. Prioritize Water Management* • Provide cool, clean water continuously • Supplement drinking water with electrolytes and Vitamin C • Flush drinkers regularly to prevent heat buildup *Warm water accelerates heat stress and increases mortality risk*. *2. Enhance Ventilation and Airflow* • Open poultry houses for maximum air circulation • Deploy fans or natural cross-ventilation where available • Avoid stagnant air conditions Poor ventilation can be more deadly than high temperature alone. *3. Adjust Feeding Practices* • Feed birds during cool periods only: • Early morning (5:00–7:00 AM) • Late evening (6:00–8:00 PM) • Avoid feeding during peak heat hours *Feeding during high temperatures increases internal heat load*. *4. Implement Low-Cost Cooling Measures* • Wet poultry house roofs during peak heat hours • Use shade nets, thatch, or local materials to reduce heat absorption • Sprinkle water around the environment (not directly on birds in cages) *5. Reduce Stocking Density* • Avoid overcrowding • Separate weak or heat-affected birds *Overcrowding intensifies heat stress and accelerates losses*. *6. Administer Anti-Stress Support* • Provide multivitamins, electrolytes, and liver tonics • Maintain consistent supplementation during heat periods *7. Suspend Stress-Inducing Activities* During extreme heat, farmers should avoid: • Vaccination • Transportation • Debeaking and handling *WARNING SIGNS FARMERS MUST MONITOR* Farmers should watch for early indicators of heat stress: • Open-mouth breathing (panting) • Wings spread out • Reduced feed intake • Clustering near water sources *Delayed response significantly increases mortality risk*. *CALL FOR NATIONAL COORDINATION AND POLICY RESPONSE* The current situation highlights the urgent need for climate-smart livestock management systems in Nigeria.: • Enhanced collaboration between NiMet, agricultural agencies, and poultry associations • Development of a national heat stress early warning system for livestock • Investment in climate-resilient poultry housing and cooling infrastructure • Expanded farmer education through extension services and mass media *CONCLUSION: A CRITICAL MOMENT FOR ACTION* Heat stress is no longer a minor seasonal concern but a systemic risk to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and food systems. Timely intervention, improved farm management practices, and coordinated national response can significantly reduce poultry mortality and safeguard farmer livelihoods. |
Lets Talk About :The Role of Footbath in Preventing Newcastle Disease Most disease outbreaks on poultry farms don’t start inside the pen—they are carried in on your shoes. During my first training on a livestock farm, I learned that one of the simplest tools—the footbath—can determine whether your flock survives or not. A footbath is a shallow container filled with disinfectant, placed at the entrance to clean footwear before entry. It may seem basic, but it blocks one of the most common routes of infection. Diseases like Newcastle disease spread easily through contaminated footwear. When you walk through markets, other farms, or areas with droppings, harmful organisms stick to your shoes and are carried straight into your birds if no disinfection is done. I once saw a farm that had a footbath, but it was poorly maintained—dirty, weak, and often ignored. Workers stepped over it daily. Within weeks, when the weather was just right for the virus to thrive, the farm suffered a severe Newcastle outbreak and lost a large portion of its flock. This is the reality: vaccination alone is not enough. If your biosecurity is weak, disease will keep entering your farm. Simple habits matter—like never moving from older birds to younger ones without proper sanitation. Take footbathing seriously. Your next step into the pen could either protect your birds or destroy them. Before you step into your poultry house today, take a moment to go through my guide on controlling Newcastle disease. It highlights crucial and simple mistakes many farmers overlook; mistakes that can quietly destroy an entire flock.
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Jakarta:I don't understand the part that’s giving you a headache. The way you keep using this word 'billing,' I can already tell the kind of person you are. I can assure you, I am not that type; I don't cheat people. Is it the fact that I offer people free poultry advice, or the fact that there is a really helpful book involved? You know there is a name for what you’re doing—it’s called bad belle. I can’t imagine wasting my data and time stalking someone I don't even know for free. Besides, you should probably be in the sports betting section. You likely don’t even know the difference between a cockerel and a broiler... please, kindly mind your business |
Jakarta:hmmmmm |
Ebi212:Chairman for me the best na to focus more on early signs. If you wait until you start seeing twisted necks or paralysis, omo, it is already too late The easiest way to spot it early is to watch your birds while feeding; healthy birds must struggle for food when they are hungry. If you feed them in the morning and see one or two just standing by 'watching film,' remove them immediately. It might not even be Newcastle; it fit be Coccidiosis. Once you separate the bird, wait for it to drop. That greenish poop doesn't just appear dark green all at once, it starts from a very light green. Look out for that change. for me on the spot if I see them, I know and all that information is in the material too..... |
Jakarta:I hear you! But 900 dead birds isn’t a 'story', it was a family disaster. I’m sharing this because no farmer deserves to lose millions to fake vaccines like we did. Feel free to ask any questions right here; I’m just happy to help fellow farmers succeed |
Ebi212:sorry, e no easy ....especially in Nigeria there are so many factors that cause the Newcastle outbreak that farmers are constantly facing. One of the most demoralizing is fake vaccines. fake, expired and dead vaccines is a heartbreaking reality that many farmers are not aware of. Honestly, there is a special kind of frustration that comes with doing everything right—spending the money and putting in the work—only to be sabotaged by someone selling fake or poorly stored vaccines. It’s not just a "mistake" at that point; it’s economic sabotage To the best of my ability and experience, I have thoroughly addressed all these issues and how to avoid them in the guide I attached to the post." |
🐔 We Lost 900 Birds in 4 Weeks… Newcastle Disease Ended My Father’s Poultry Farm Good day farmers, This is not theory… this is something I experienced myself. Back in 2015, I was just 16 years old when my father decided to start a family poultry farm here in Port Harcourt. He was Hardworking, dedicated and Ready to invest, But one thing he lacked… was practical experience and training. How It All Started He started big with 2,000 day-old chicks. Every morning, we would wear our boots and walk to the farm. It was just about 3 minutes from our house. Everything felt promising and We all believed we were going to be swimming in chicken money by December .......We didn’t know what was coming.The Small Sign That Changed Everything One morning, we noticed something small: * One bird looked dull * Another didn’t rush for feed * A few were just standing quietly To a new farmer, this is nothing. But today, as someone with experience… I can tell you: That was a CODE RED T[b]he Mistake That Cost Us Everything[/b] We ignored it. My dad said: Maybe it’s stress… maybe weather change… after all, this Port Harcourt heat no be here 😅” But within 2–3 days… Everything changed. * Birds started coughing * Some were gasping * Feed consumption dropped * Then deaths started Newcastle disease hit the farm so fast and so hard…We didn’t even understand what was happening. Before we could react: * Birds were dying daily * Weak ones couldn’t stand * The infection kept spreading By week 4… We were using wheelbarrows to pack dead birds for burial. 👉 We lost about 900 birds - 💔 The Pain was More Than Emotion....Its Financial If you are farming in Nigeria, you already understand: * Feed is expensive * Medication costs money * Day-old chicks are not cheap So losing birds like that is not just painful… 👉 It is a serious financial setback. In our case, it got worse. * The farm had to shut down * My father’s health became unstable * He was admitted in the hospital for a week That period was very tough for our family. That experience stayed with me. I kept asking myself: “What really killed those birds?” That was when I made a decision: 👉 I would understand what went wrong. ❌ The Mistakes We Made (Many Farmers Still Make This Today Looking back now, with years of experience in the field, I realize we made several serious mistakes: the most important being that my father didn't go for practical training. * We didn’t act fast when we saw early signs * We allowed people to enter the poultry freely * We vaccinated, but not correctly * We assumed “it won’t happen to us” That last one is dangerous. What 5 Years of Experience Has Taught Me 👉 Hard work is not enough 👉 Dedication is not enough 👉 Finance is not enough If you don’t apply knowledge in the right areas, you will still lose money. It’s been over 11 years since that incident. Since then, I have: * Undergone practical training * Worked with commercial poultry operations * Learned from agro-based institutions Today: 👉 I run a 500-capacity broiler cycle every 2–3 months 👉 With less than 2% mortality Being a successful poultry farmer is not enough payback. I’ve written a more detailed guide for poultry farmers to help them overcome the “green monster” (Newcastle disease) that hit us 11 years ago. It covers everything a farmer needs to know about combating Newcastle disease. If you’re interested, you can check it out here: https://selar.com/301793z031 No big grammar. Just what works. 🤝 Let’s Learn From Each Other, I ll always check back to see your response and questions * Have you ever experienced sudden mortality like this? * What signs did you notice first? * How do you currently handle vaccination? Let’s share… someone might learn something important.
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.......We didn’t know what was coming.