₦airaland Forum

**I Went Looking For The Quiet Nairaland Posters Who Actually Pick Winners — Here’s What I Found**

I’ve been going through the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick thread with a slightly different objective.

Instead of asking:

**“Who posts the most?”**

or

**“Who is the most popular on the thread?”**

I wanted to answer a harder question:

**Which posters actually have a repeatable track record of identifying good stocks BEFORE the move?**

The original exercise started from January 1st 2025 and was meant to rank posters based on their one-year success rates.

But while doing that, I realised there was a problem.

Some of the best posters are not necessarily the loudest.

They may make 2–3 serious calls in a year, disappear, come back months later and make another one.

If you only count activity from January 2025, you can completely miss people who made a very strong portfolio call in late 2024 whose results only became obvious in 2025.

That is exactly how I nearly missed **Bovali**.

---

### THE BOVALI DISCOVERY

Bovali didn't post enough new calls during the January–August 2025 scoring period to naturally dominate a leaderboard.

But when I went backwards, things became much more interesting.

On July 1st 2024, Bovali publicly posted a portfolio containing:

ACCESS
AFRIPRUD
AIICO
DANGSUGAR
FBNH
MTNN
NESTLE
STERLING
TRANSCORP
WAPCO

One year later?

**Every single one was positive.**

10/10.

Some were ordinary gains.

Some were monsters.

TRANSCORP went from roughly ₦12.90 to around ₦48.

WAPCO went from roughly ₦34 to around ₦87.

AIICO moved from around ₦1 to ₦1.61.

MTNN went from roughly ₦214 to ₦357.

The equal-weight basket returned roughly **77%** versus about **20% for the NGX ASI** over the same one-year period.

That immediately raised another question:

**How many other “Bovali-type” posters are hiding inside this gigantic thread?**

Meaning posters who:

* don't post every five minutes;
* don't necessarily shout “FULL BID!!!”;
* don't constantly repost their winners;
* but quietly make thoughtful calls that subsequently work.

So I widened the search.

And a few interesting names have emerged.

---

## 1. OSITADIMA1

This might be the most interesting discovery so far.

Ositadima1 doesn't just throw ticker symbols around.

There is evidence of an actual framework behind the posts.

For example, he discussed **NASCON** in late 2024 as a possible 100% return candidate, combining valuation, expected earnings and dividend expectations.

NASCON later became one of the major winners of the period.

But what caught my attention even more was something he explained in December 2024.

He had built a type of **volume anomaly screener**.

The basic idea was to look at roughly a year's worth of trading data and detect when current trading volume suddenly became statistically abnormal while the share price itself had barely moved.

In simple English:

**“Is somebody quietly accumulating this thing before the price starts moving?”**

That is exactly the kind of thing I want from this exercise.

Not:

“Stock X will fly.”

But:

“Here is the measurable reason I'm paying attention.”

He also showed another important characteristic with OANDO.

While many people were bullish during the recovery, Ositadima warned that the stock could reverse around certain levels and potentially revisit much lower prices if earnings didn't justify the move.

Even more importantly, I found posts where he later admitted that one of his previous investing rules had been wrong and explained how he had modified it.

That may sound small.

It isn't.

One of the biggest problems with investment forums is that people remember every winning prediction and quietly bury every bad one.

Someone publicly saying:

**“My earlier model was wrong. This is what I learned.”**

gets extra credit from me.

**Current assessment: Ositadima1 belongs in the top research group.**

---

## 2. BULLBEARMKT

BullBearMkt looks like a different animal.

Less fundamental valuation.

More **technical entry timing**.

And some of the historical entry zones are very interesting.

In August 2024, somebody asked about WEMA.

BullBearMkt identified roughly:

**₦5.80–₦6.20**

as the buying zone.

WEMA eventually moved above ₦20.

He also highlighted Nigerian Breweries below roughly ₦28–₦29 as an interesting buyer area while clearly acknowledging that the chart could still continue lower.

NB eventually moved into the ₦70+ area.

There was also an OKOMU buying opportunity discussed around the ₦320 support region.

OKOMU eventually crossed ₦1,000.

Now, before anybody rushes off and says:

**“BullBearMkt never misses!”**

No.

That is exactly what I'm trying to avoid.

Technical traders make many more calls than fundamental investors.

If I show only three spectacular winners and ignore 15 stops that got hit, the analysis becomes useless.

So BullBearMkt still needs a proper **loser audit**.

But there is enough evidence already to say:

**This account deserves serious attention when the question is entry timing.**

---

## 3. PURISTFOREST

PuristForest is another interesting sleeper.

There are some surprisingly precise setups in the posting history.

For example, in January 2024:

**ELLAHLAKES target: ₦4.70**

That target was subsequently reached.

Then in January 2025:

**FTNCOCOA target: roughly ₦3.20–₦3.80.**

The stock eventually moved well beyond that range.

There are older examples involving stocks like Tantalizers, FCMB and Red Star Express where specific numerical setups were posted instead of vague bullish statements.

Again, that is valuable.

However, I have also seen enough evidence to suspect that PuristForest may be considerably better at **individual stock setups** than broad-market predictions.

And that's another important lesson from this exercise.

We shouldn't be asking:

**“Who is the best poster?”**

We should be asking:

**“What is each poster actually good at?”**

Someone can be excellent at finding individual breakouts and terrible at predicting the overall NGX direction.

Those are completely different skills.

**Current assessment: PuristForest is very promising, but needs more auditing before promotion into the very top tier.**

---

## 4. BABS02

Babs02 appears more useful from a **value/fundamental** perspective.

A lot of the posts revolve around relative valuations, particularly banking stocks.

ACCESS, UBA and other companies have been discussed in terms of whether the market valuation makes sense relative to earnings and peers.

The problem is statistical measurement.

If somebody says:

**“ACCESS is significantly undervalued.”**

What exactly counts as success?

10%?

30%?

Beating the NGX?

Reaching fair value?

That's why I don't want to dishonestly convert every smart fundamental comment into a “winning call”.

For now:

**Babs02 goes onto the research watchlist rather than the formal hit-rate leaderboard.**

---

## 5. 222MARTINS

Another account that deserves more attention.

One standout was DANGSUGAR.

There was a clear bullish thesis around the ₦35–₦40 region and expectations of significant upside.

That worked very well.

But what interested me almost as much was the willingness to discuss **taking profits** in other situations instead of behaving like every stock must go to the moon.

That matters.

Finding a stock is one skill.

Selling it is another.

Many Nairaland heroes are fantastic at posting:

**“I told you guys!”**

after a 100% move.

Very few consistently tell you:

**“This has done enough. Reduce risk.”**

So 222Martins stays on the list.

Not enough evidence yet for top-tier status, but definitely worth monitoring.

---

## ONE PERSON I'M DELIBERATELY NOT RANKING HIGHLY YET: ONEGENTLEGUY

This is an important point.

There appears to be evidence that OGG had several strong historical ideas.

But a lot of later activity moved into private/subscription channels.

That creates a massive audit problem.

If I can see:

“Look at the winner we recommended privately!”

but I cannot see every losing recommendation from the same private channel...

then I cannot calculate a meaningful success rate.

So my rule going forward is simple:

**Private Telegram/WhatsApp/subscriber calls do not count unless the original timestamped recommendation is independently available.**

Otherwise we're just measuring marketing.

---

# SO WHO ARE THE MOST INTERESTING POSTERS RIGHT NOW?

At this stage, I would divide them by **skill**, not simply rank everybody 1–10.

### Quantified valuation

**aj8**

Very specific targets.

Easy to audit.

Strong historical target achievement.

---

### Deep fundamental/value investors

**Bovali**

**Sunrisepebble**

**emmaodet**

These are the people I'd want to read when asking:

**“What might this company actually be worth?”**

---

### Data/quantitative research

**ositadima1**

This one deserves much more attention.

Especially if the unusual-volume screening methodology continues producing good signals.

---

### Technical entry timing

**BullBearMkt**

**PuristForest**

Useful for asking:

**“Okay, I like the company. But where should I actually enter?”**

---

### Early idea discovery / momentum

**yMcy56**

**Locotrader**

**megawealth01 — provisional**

Locotrader in particular has an interesting pattern.

The **stock ideas themselves** can be very good.

The exact price targets are much less reliable.

CHAMS is a perfect example.

The stock performed very well.

The ₦15 target did not.

So perhaps the right way to use Loco isn't:

**“Buy until his target.”**

It may be:

**“When Loco identifies something interesting, go and independently value it.”**

Big difference.

---

# THIS IS WHERE THE ANALYSIS IS HEADING

I originally thought the end product should simply be:

**“Top 10 posters by success rate.”**

I'm no longer convinced that is the best answer.

A better system is probably a **Profile × Skill Matrix**.

Something like:

| Profile | Stock Picking | Valuation | Entry Timing | Exit Timing | Risk Calls | Sample Confidence |
| ------------- | ------------- | --------- | ------------ | ----------- | ---------- | ----------------- |
| aj8 | Excellent | Excellent | — | Good | Good | High |
| Bovali | Excellent | Very Good | Good | Good | Good | High |
| Sunrisepebble | Excellent | Excellent | Good | Good | Good | Medium |
| Ositadima1 | Very Good | Very Good | Good | — | Excellent | Growing |
| BullBearMkt | Very Good | — | Excellent | Good | Good | Audit ongoing |
| Locotrader | Very Good | Mixed | Good | Mixed | Mixed | High |

Because there probably isn't one person who is best at everything.

And here's where this becomes genuinely useful.

Imagine a stock where:

**Bovali says it is undervalued.**

**Ositadima detects abnormal accumulation.**

**aj8 independently calculates 50%+ upside.**

**Sunrisepebble or Emma validates the earnings.**

Then:

**BullBearMkt identifies a clean support zone.**

Now you are no longer following one man's opinion.

You have several independent frameworks arriving at roughly the same conclusion.

**THAT is the signal I eventually want this analysis to identify.**

Not:

“Five people on Nairaland are shouting the same ticker.”

But:

**“Five historically competent investors, using different methods, independently see something attractive here.”**

Those are two completely different things.

---

The biggest lesson so far?

**The best people on that thread may not be the loudest people on that thread.**

Bovali proved that.

Ositadima1 may be another one.

BullBearMkt may be the technical equivalent.

And I'm fairly certain there are more buried across those thousands of pages.

So the search continues.

The objective is not to crown anybody “Nairaland Warren Buffett”.

The objective is much simpler:

**Find out who is worth listening to, what exactly they are good at, and when several of those people independently agree on the same opportunity.**

That could turn a 10,000+ page thread into something genuinely useful.

*NB: Historical performance is not a guarantee of future returns. This is an attempt to audit publicly timestamped calls, not financial advice.*