₦airaland Forum

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has said President Bola Tinubu cannot ask Nigerians for four more years while sending governors, ministers and defectors across the country to defend the hardship of the past three and a half.

In a statement issued by Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, Atiku said: “Tinubu says he may miss campaign rallies because Nigeria needs his attention. Where was that urgency when Nigerians pleaded for relief?

He has had three and a half years to govern. In that time, families have been forced to cut meals, postpone medical care and watch their earnings lose value before they get home.”

“Now he wants another mandate. Before asking Nigerians for one, he must face them and account for the first term.

“Let him look a mother in the eye and explain what his government has done to make food affordable. Let him tell pensioners why they cannot afford their medicines. Let him explain to young Nigerians why years of study and hard work have still not brought them decent jobs.

“Tinubu says American creditors cannot wait. Nigerians cannot wait either. They have bills to pay, children to feed and lives to rebuild. They deserve a President who treats their suffering with the same urgency he gives creditors and investors.”

“Instead, he is assembling a crowd of politicians to speak for him. He can fill every campaign stage in Nigeria. He cannot fill an empty pot with surrogates. He cannot send a politician into a market to persuade prices to fall.

“The people on his campaign council did not receive the mandate in 2023. Tinubu did. He made the promises. He took the decisions. He must face the questions.

“Nigerians will hear whatever his surrogates have to say. But when they vote, they will remember what they have lived through. No crowd of politicians can stand between Tinubu and his record.”

ATIKU LAUNCHES ‘ASK AA’ PORTAL TO OPEN DIRECT CHANNEL TO NIGERIANS

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has unveiled Ask AA, an information and citizen-engagement portal that gives Nigerians a direct opportunity to ask him questions about his political agenda, record in public service and plans for the country.

The portal goes live at 8:30 p.m. today, 15 October 2026.

The free-access platform allows Nigerians to submit questions on issues including the economy, security, technology, job creation and Atiku’s plan to make life more affordable. Atiku will respond personally to questions, while his media team will also help provide answers.

Powered by technology, Ask AA is designed to help bridge the information gap between voters and the ADC presidential candidate by making it easier for citizens to engage with him and access information about his positions and proposals.

“The objective of this initiative is to bring Atiku Abubakar closer to the electorate through a practical, problem-solving platform,” said Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication for the ADC Presidential Campaign Council.

Shaibu added that the initiative reflects Atiku’s commitment to using modern technology to make government more efficient, secure and effective.

For communities without internet access, the campaign plans to make the platform accessible through a radio interface.

In announcing the initiative on his social media accounts, Atiku said he conceived Ask AA because he believes that “leadership is a two-way conversation.”

He said: “For too long, governance has felt distant—locked behind walls of bureaucracy. But our country’s greatest resource isn’t oil or land; it is our people. If we are going to build the Nigeria of our dreams, we must start by tearing down the walls between leaders and the people.

“That is why I am launching Ask AA—a direct citizen-engagement platform built for transparency, accountability and dialogue. No filters, no intermediaries.

“Whether you want to question my economic record, discuss my policy plans for technology, security and job creation, or share your own recommendations for national progress, nothing is off the table. I want to hear your questions, your policy critiques and your best ideas.

“Beyond answering questions here, I will personally call selected citizens who leave their contact details so I can hear directly about their experiences and the issues affecting their daily lives.

“A transparent, technology-driven government is not a promise for tomorrow. It begins with how we listen to you today.

“I’m logged in and ready. If you could ask me one question, what would it be?”

Signed:
Phrank Shaibu
Director of Strategic Communication
ADC Presidential Campaign Council
15 October 2026

ATIKU LAUNCHES ‘ASK AA’ PORTAL TO OPEN DIRECT CHANNEL TO NIGERIANS

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has unveiled Ask AA, an information and citizen-engagement portal that gives Nigerians a direct opportunity to ask him questions about… pic.twitter.com/MQGbZLlIdA

— Atiku Abubakar (@atiku) October 15, 2026

EXTRA: Tinubu suffers gaffe, refers to himself as governor at APC campaign council inauguration

President Bola Tinubu on Wednesday referred to himself as a governor while speaking at the inauguration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign council for the 2027 election in Abuja.

“Distinguished leaders of our party, all the party members, presidential campaign council, I’ve seen my friend here that I must thank. And next will be the recognition of the director general of the presidential campaign council that we bring Governor Bola Tinubu back for second time,” he said.

EXTRA: Tinubu suffers gaffe, refers to himself as governor at APC campaign council inauguration

President Bola Tinubu on Wednesday referred to himself as a governor while speaking at the inauguration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign council for the… pic.twitter.com/rNBZOOhvWd

— TheCable (@thecableng) October 14, 2026

There is no policy of the government that has really made anyone hungry except for opposition party members, who have decided that hunger is going to be their own signature.

-Ayobami Oyalowo, member, APC Presidential Campaign Council#CTVMorningBrief pic.twitter.com/wIdbWqbkmn

— Channels Television (@channelstv) October 14, 2026

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has declared that this is the wrong time for governments to impose new taxes or increase the tax burden on vulnerable people and productive sectors of the economy.

Oyedele spoke on the sidelines of the 2026 annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand, where he presented the communiqué of the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G24).


According to him, governments should balance revenue mobilisation with the need to protect vulnerable populations from additional financial pressure.

“This is the wrong time to impose new taxes or increase the tax burden, particularly on vulnerable populations and productive sectors of the economy,” Oyedele said.

Responding to a question on how developing countries could reduce debt-servicing costs without cutting essential public spending, the minister said governments should look inward for savings and improve revenue mobilisation without imposing additional burdens on citizens and businesses.

“The measures, as you asked, would first involve every country looking inward to identify areas for savings and revenue mobilisation, while bearing in mind that this is the wrong time to impose new taxes or increase the tax burden, particularly on vulnerable populations and productive sectors of the economy,” he said.

Oyedele said borrowing remained necessary for economic growth but stressed that it should be used to support job creation and inclusive development.

“Borrowing and debt financing are necessary conditions for growth, and every emerging and developing country must be able to use debt financing in a way that has an overall positive impact, particularly by stimulating job-rich and inclusive growth,” he said.

He also said public financing, which is often constrained, should be directed towards essential services such as healthcare and education, while private capital could help meet other investment needs.

On the balance between taxation and borrowing, Oyedele said neither option should be considered in isolation.

“If you collect taxes, you raise the money now, and that itself has a lot of trade-offs. What taxes are you collecting? If you collect taxes from the most vulnerable, you deprive them of money to provide food, healthcare and education,” he said.

According to Oyedele, “debt is future taxes, so it’s not one or the other. It’s about striking a balance, bearing in mind that, ultimately, the purpose of taxation and borrowing is to cater for the people.”

Daily Trust reports that the meeting is holding from October 12 to October 18, 2026. It is being attended by delegations from over 190 countries.

The Nigeria delegation include Chief Executive Officers of financial institutions, representatives of the private sector, Civil Society Organisations, Non-Governmental Organisations and other stakeholders.

The meeting, aimed at promoting global macro-economic financial stability along IMF’s long-standing mission, provides policy advice, surveillance of member countries’ economies, and financial assistance to countries facing balance-of-payments issues.

Arise Television anchor, Rufai Oseni has accused the Federal Government of hypocrisy over its decision to introduce a 30-day petrol discount at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, filling stations.

Oseni argued that the discount amounted to a return of fuel subsidy despite the position of the Minister of Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, that the measure was not a subsidy.

The broadcaster made the remarks on Friday during The Morning Show, an Arise Television programme.

He questioned why the government, which had consistently opposed the return of fuel subsidy, introduced the petrol discount for only 30 days, particularly as preparations for the 2027 general election gathered momentum.

Oseni also commended former Vice President Atiku Abubakar for bringing the need to cushion the effects of rising petrol prices to the forefront of public debate.

He recalled that Atiku, in a speech delivered on September 18, argued that President Bola Tinubu could rename the intervention and take credit for it, provided it reduced the burden on Nigerians.

According to Oseni, the government had failed to introduce sufficient relief measures for Nigerians despite the rise in global crude oil prices since March 8.

He said the decision to offer a petrol discount demonstrated that the government could intervene to ease the burden on citizens, contrary to its earlier position that fuel subsidy should not return.

Oseni said: “Subsidy is back. Welcome back, subsidy. The fact that the Minister of Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, says it’s not a subsidy does not mean it’s not a subsidy.

“Read my lips. It is a subsidy, and it is back. Who do we have to thank? Atiku Abubakar. I never knew there would be a day I would thank you, Atiku Abubakar.

“If not for you, this government wouldn’t have thought of any reprieve for anybody. If not for you, who brought the subsidy issue to the front burner, the government wouldn’t have thought of anything to cushion the effects of rising petrol prices, which have exceeded $100 per barrel since March 8.

“But today, Atiku Abubakar, take your flowers. On September 18, Atiku gave a speech, and I will quote that speech. He said, ‘President Bola Tinubu can even rename it and take the glory, as long as the pain is less on the people.’

“So, it is possible. You see, hypocrisy is so much in this country. Government officials spent all these months defending their position and saying, ‘No, subsidy should not come back. It is an aberration.

“​If we do this, if we do that, it’s an aberration.’ But when it’s one month to the election, they quickly bring it back for 30 days.

“But, as people have asked, after 30 days, when they have switched people off and held the election, will we see the outcome and then they will take it back?

“This is because a government that didn’t care for you since March 8, when petrol prices reached $100 per barrel, has now introduced a discount in the middle of October for just one month.

“So, we have seen that it was possible. This was the same President Tinubu who told us, ‘Hypocrisy is so much in this country.’ He said the state governors should use CNG to reduce transportation costs. That’s why they were pushing CNG. So, now you’ve gone back and given people a discount.

“For those who are saying it’s a discount, not a subsidy, okay, who will bear the cost of the lost profit? You people fail to understand, in basic economics, that your profit is also used to invest in a business. So, when you make the argument that it’s a discount, not a subsidy…”

Subsidy is back, according to Rufai Useni on Arise this morning. He also praised Atiku for pressing the Tinubu government to cut fuel prices and change the entire campaign to an issue-based one. pic.twitter.com/QVFjgAvCIV

— Emma ik Umeh (Tcee )🇳🇬 (@emmaikumeh) October 9, 2026

The leadership of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has advised the Federal Government to jettison what it described as its “insensitive policies that have allowed indiscriminate hikes in the price of petroleum products”.

The Congress also took a swipe at the government, saying it cannot continue to demand sacrifice from workers while not offering any relief to the suffering masses and workers.

It stated these in a communique issued after the joint meeting of the National Executive Council (NEC) and Central Working Committee (CWC) and read to journalists by the President of NLC, Joe Ajaero, at Labour House, Abuja.

Daily Trust reports that the Federal Government had earlier announced that Nigerians will start buying petrol at lower prices at NNPC filling stations for the next 30 days.

Under the proposed price modulation mechanism, the government is negotiating a ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol, subject to monthly reviews.

The proposed ceiling does not mean petrol will sell for ₦1,350 per litre at filling stations, rather, it is intended to prevent sharp movements in global crude prices or the exchange rate from immediately translating into corresponding increases in the cost of petrol.

Reacting to the development, the NLC said the exorbitant pump price of petrol has had a cascading effect on the cost of transportation, food, and other essential goods, further deepening the hardship of workers and the masses.

“The joint meeting reiterates its call on the federal government to work with relevant agencies to immediately reduce the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.

“The government must abandon its insensitive policies that have allowed for indiscriminate hikes in the price of petroleum products which has only served to enrich a handful of oil marketers while pauperising the masses,” Ajaero said.

The labour leader revealed that the joint meeting-in-session noted with profound alarm the deepening misery inflicted on the Nigerian working class and the broader masses by the “neo-liberal policies of the federal government and its state institutions.”

The NLC President added, “Inflation continues to soar unabated, the naira remains traumatised, wages have been rendered worthless, and the cost of living has become unbearable.

“The ruling elite, acting as enforcers of global monopoly capital, have demonstrated a worrying indifference to the suffering of the people, choosing instead to transfer the burden of their fiscal negligence onto the already impoverished working masses thus abandoning the people to the dictates of comprador fat cats.”

The African Democratic Congress Presidential Campaign Council (ADC-PCC) has described the Federal Government’s 30-day reduction in petrol prices at NNPC filling stations as a desperate attempt to bribe Nigerians ahead of the 2027 elections.

The council was reacting to the announcement by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, that Nigerians would enjoy reduced petrol prices at NNPC stations for 30 days.

In a statement by its Director of Media and Publicity, Kola Ologbondiyan, the council said the move exposed the government’s failure to protect Nigerians from the hardship triggered by its economic policies.

“After over three years of subjecting Nigerians to excruciating pain through the reckless removal of fuel subsidy, the collapse of the naira and suffocating economic policies, the Tinubu administration now thinks it can bribe Nigerians with 30 days of cheaper fuel.

“Nigerians will reject your one-month bribe,” Ologbondiyan said.

Questioning what would happen after the temporary price reduction, Ologbondiyan said the measure was a political gimmick rather than economic policy.

“What happens after 30 days? Will Nigerians return to buying petrol at over N1,400 per litre?” he asked.

“This is not governance; this is deceit. It is a negotiated bribe designed to be reviewed monthly to suit the government’s political calendar,” he said.

The council commended its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, for challenging the removal of fuel subsidy without adequate social protection, saying the latest development had vindicated his position.

“Atiku was right all along. This half-hearted 30-day gimmick is proof that the government has finally acknowledged the truth, although it has done so too late and in a deceitful manner,” Ologbondiyan said.

He said the government’s ability to reduce fuel costs, even temporarily, raised questions about why Nigerians had endured high prices for more than 800 days.

“If the government can reduce the burden of fuel costs for 30 days, with priority given to public transport operators, why did it allow Nigerians to suffer for more than 800 days?” Ologbondiyan asked.

“This proves that the government has always had the capacity to make life easier for Nigerians but chose not to do so and only remembers the suffering masses when elections are around the corner,” he said.

Ologbondiyan said Nigerians would not trade their future for temporary relief from the hardship they had endured.

“No one-month palliative can buy the conscience of Nigerians,” he said.

“Nigerians are not for sale. You cannot buy their future with 30 days of cheaper fuel,” Ologbondiyan said.

“They have seen through this fraud. They know the difference between genuine governance and a one-month electoral bribe. They have resolved to vote out hardship and hunger in 2027,” he said.

Support Staff Union members of the Port Harcourt Refining Company have protested the delay in the payment of their seven months’ salaries and the non-implementation of a new salary structure recently approved by the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bayo Ojulari.

The workers gave the management of the NNPCL a 48-hour ultimatum to implement the new salary structure or risk the total shutdown of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, located in Eleme, Rivers State.

The protesting workers, who barricaded the entrance of the PHRC on Monday, displayed placards with various inscriptions and mounted tents in front of the refinery gate, temporarily disrupting activities at the complex.

They alleged that after the NNPCL GCEO gave the approval, the Refinery Coordinator had refused to implement it.

The aggrieved union members said the peaceful protest was against what they described as injustice and marginalisation at the refinery, and listed four key demands.

The demands include the implementation of the approved salary structure and remuneration package in accordance with the applicable approval and effective date; approval of the requested N1m housing/rent relief to alleviate accommodation challenges facing eligible support staff; urgent payment of their seven months’ outstanding salaries and other legitimate entitlements owed to affected workers; and improved consultation and effective engagement among the Refinery Coordinator, managing directors, relevant management authorities and recognised labour representatives on matters affecting workers’ welfare.

Other placards read: “Workers deserve dignity: Fair pay is our right” and “Stop the delay, no more postponement.”

Speaking to newsmen during the protest, the Chairman of the PHRC Support Staff Union, Bennett Isy, said the new salary structure was supposed to take effect on October 1, 2026, but that nothing had been done.

Isy also complained about the seven months’ unpaid salaries and warned that the workers would completely shut down the company if their demands were not met.

He stated, “You cannot tell us that the GCEO of the NNPCL approved something and the RC will say no. That is insubordination. It is obvious to mention that there are 800 gorillas in the room.

“We know the forces that are backing the RC, and because of that, we are calling on the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to call the RC to order. The RC should stop using the powers of Aso Rock to intimidate workers.

“We are saying that we are not backing down. We are following all due process to ensure that what rightly belongs to us gets to us; but if it is not implemented in the next 48 hours, to God, we are going to shut down this refinery. Not one soul will gain access to these premises. That I assure you.”

Other protesters who spoke lamented the hardship faced by workers following the non-payment of their salaries and the failure to approve the N1m rent relief, even as they demanded the removal of the NNPCL Refinery Coordinator, Bayo Adelere.

A female union member identified as Joy Osueiya said, “When the RC visited the last time, he said we should wait until January 2027, and we are here to say no. January 2027 is too late.

“Why will the GCEO approve something to be implemented for us on October 1, and the RC will say no? We object to it. A lot of us have lost loved ones in this refinery.

“Some of our men cannot even impregnate their wives again. Some of our colleagues have lost their lives here.”

She alleged that “some have lost their arms because of how hazardous the place is. So we are here to say no. Enough is enough. Implement it now.”

Another protesting support staff member, Godspower Nwakanji, called on President Bola Tinubu to intervene, saying, “We cannot renew our hope in hunger and poverty.

“We cannot renew our hope when there is no medical attention. We have worked for 10 years without medical response.”

Workers at the Port Harcourt Refinery have taken to the streets over salaries and the implementation of a new pay structure. A support staff representative says NNPC management approved the structure but claims the refinery coordinator has refused to implement it. pic.twitter.com/cT76JQgivD

— News Central TV (@NewsCentralTV) October 6, 2026

Port Harcourt Refinery Support Staff protest Day 2: staffs refused to be intimidated with the use of security. It takes nothing to listen to their demand. pic.twitter.com/pRMuQpXijr

— Ibidunni (@ibbmodes2) October 6, 2026

With the prolonged US-Iran war causing disruptions in the global oil market and shooting up the prices of crude, Nigeria has raked in billions of Naira in oil windfall in the last six months, Daily Trust can report.

While no public record exists of the exact amount made from the windfall, Daily Trust analysis estimates that Nigeria might have grossed about N5trn since the start of the US-Iran war in late February 2026.

At the peak of the war, worsened by the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, by a joint US-Israeli airstrike, Brent crude, the international benchmark price, traded above $115 per barrel in April as the supply disruption deteriorated.

Daily Trust reports that while rising crude oil prices are usually good news for an oil-producing country like Nigeria, as they strengthen government revenues and foreign-exchange earnings, they also push up fuel, transport, and food costs for households.

The N58.47 trillion 2026 budget was based on a relatively conservative crude benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, with oil production projected at 1.84 million barrels per day. The budget was later reviewed upward to N67.7 trillion.

When the bill was passed in April, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan, also announced an increase in the crude benchmark to $75 per barrel.

With international crude prices now moving well above that benchmark, the gap creates additional earnings for Nigeria.

The early March surge of crude prices saw Brent Crude jump 10% to $82 immediately and by mid-March, it surged to near $120 as the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route controlling one-fifth of the global fuel supply, closed.

From the peak of $117 in April, it cooled off to an average of $107 in May. By June, it eased to $85 due to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by both countries (US and Iran).

It came to the pre-war low at $72 in late June, but the renewed tension and escalation pushed prices up again above $100 per barrel.

At an average of $97 per barrel over six months, Nigeria would have raked in an extra $22 per barrel above the $75 projection.

Daily Trust reports that, on average, crude oil and condensate production had hovered around 1.6million barrels per day during the period under review, which is below the 2026 budget benchmark.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that the country produced an average of 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil and condensates in August, up from 1.67mbpd recorded in July.

In July, combined crude and condensate production stood at 1.67 million barrels per day, comprising 1.505 million barrels of crude and 0.17 million barrels of condensate. The NUPRC attributed the monthly decline partly to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields.

According to NUPRC, Nigeria’s crude oil production reached an average of 1.56 million barrels per day in June, 1.70mbpd in May 2026, 1.66 mbpd in April and 1.56 mbpd in March 2026.

At 1.6mbpd average, this means that Nigeria produced 48 million barrels in a month and 288 million barrels in six months, as against 324 million barrels at a projected 1.8mbpd.

However, in revenue terms, it is estimated that Nigeria grossed $27.9bn at an average of $97/barrel and 288 million barrels as against $24.3bn from the projected $75/barrel and 324 million barrels, leaving an excess of $3.6bn (about N4.78 trillion).

This analysis excludes the existing crude swap arrangement officially known as direct sale, direct purchase (DSDP) scheme introduced by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

Under the programme, the Nigerian government took loans to be repaid through the sale of crude oil. This means that the future sale is deducted as a first-line charge from oil production.

It is estimated that around 300,000 barrels of crude oil have gone into that arrangement, but this could not be independently confirmed as there was no response from the NNPCL as of press time.

Experts say the rising crude prices present a golden opportunity for Nigeria to increase revenue and provide safety nets for Nigerians bearing the pangs of high energy prices, elevated fuel prices and the general cost of living worsened by the current disruption.

They observe that Nigeria would have gained more if it were able to achieve the projected 1.8m barrel-per-day oil production target.

Several attempts to get reactions from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Ministry of Finance since last week have met a brick wall. Our correspondent, who visited the Abuja offices of the two organisations, could not get any comments. Also, calls, texts and WhatsApp messages sent to their spokespersons were not responded to.

Daily Trust reports that despite rising prices, there has been no significant increase in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) established as a buffer for saving oil revenues earned above the budget benchmark.

While Nigeria is earning more from higher international crude oil prices, one of the country’s traditional oil savings mechanisms, the ECA, is showing little evidence of benefiting from the price surge, as checks indicated.

As of June 2026, according to the Federal Government, ECA stood at only $535,823.39, the same figure recorded in August 2025.

The idea of the ECA was that when crude prices exceeded the budget benchmark, the excess could be saved.

The money could then be used during periods of falling oil prices or other fiscal emergencies. But despite the surge in crude prices, there has been no substantial rebuilding of the account that used to hold billions of dollars.

Daily Trust reports that federal allocations shared among federal, state and local governments have risen considerably since the removal of fuel subsidy, but there was a significant drop in the August release.

What analysts say

Energy expert Oyebode Fadipe said the figures represent an estimated gross revenue gain based on the assumptions used in the analysis.

Fadipe noted that the mathematical breakdown of the estimated $27.936 billion in gross receipts was technically correct based on the average crude price and production figures used.

“Your mathematical breakdown of the gross receipts ($27.936 billion) is technically correct based on your stated averages,” he said, noting that the analysis showed a significant difference between the crude price used in the 2026 budget and the estimated average market price during the period under review.

However, Fadipe also pointed out that Nigeria’s actual production remained below the level projected in the budget.

He said the broader issue was whether the increase in crude receipts translated into a corresponding improvement in Nigeria’s finances and the welfare of citizens.

“What we have therefore is paper gain instead of cash reality. While the global oil surge theoretically grossed Nigeria $27.9 billion on paper, production shortfalls and debt-servicing arrangements mean the country is experiencing a jobless windfall where the average citizen feels only the inflation, not the revenue,” he said.

He also pointed to the potential impact of higher international crude prices on the cost of refined petroleum products, saying increased crude prices could raise the cost of fuel and offset some of the benefit of higher crude export earnings.

Fadipe said Nigeria’s failure to meet the 1.84 million barrels per day production target in the 2026 budget further limited the benefit that could have been derived from the crude price surge.

Marcel Okeke, former chief economist at Zenith Bank, said the analysis estimating Nigeria’s potential oil windfall is economically correct based on the assumptions used.

He, however, cautioned that higher nominal revenue does not necessarily translate into increased purchasing power, as rising prices can erode the real value of additional income.

He said the same principle should be considered when assessing Nigeria’s oil windfall, noting that the analysis could reasonably be used to estimate how much the country may have gained from the surge in crude prices.

What have Nigerians benefitted?

While the government benefits from higher oil prices, households, however, face a different reality given Nigeria’s current experiment with a market-based petrol pricing regime. This means that international energy-price movements can feed into domestic fuel prices. When crude prices rise, petroleum product costs can come under pressure with the end of the subsidy.

As the 2027 electioneering kicks off, the issue has taken the front burner, with one of the presidential hopefuls, Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), promising to return the fuel subsidy.

Atiku had declared that if elected, he would replace Nigeria’s old import-subsidy regime with a targeted, capped, transparently budgeted and independently audited production subsidy designed to lower energy costs while accelerating domestic refining.

Dr Umar Yakubu of the Centre for Fiscal Transparency and Public Integrity said the federal government has failed to translate this price driven revenue boost into tangible relief for citizens struggling with high domestic fuel costs and inflation.

He stated that rather than building institutional buffers in the Sovereign Wealth Fund or ECA, excess receipts are routinely absorbed by recurrent expenditure, operational expenditures and debt service.

“Consequently, domestic pump prices remain tied to import costs and currency volatility, leaving Nigerians exposed to rising living costs without seeing the benefit of national windfall revenues.”

He, however, said to achieve long-term economic stability, excess oil revenues must be managed through a structured policy framework focused on savings, targeted capital investment, and absolute transparency.

He added that a fixed portion of all windfall funds should be mandatorily saved in institutional reserves to buffer against market shocks, while the balance is strictly ring-fenced for high-impact infrastructure.

How countries are mitigating high fuel prices

President Tinubu had said in late August that governors had agreed to take a series of measures to reduce the cost of transportation across the country by October 1 through the adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles in the public transport system.

However, findings by this paper revealed strong indications that many states may not meet the deadline. Many states have just one CNG station, some have two or three, while others have none amid a dearth of CNG conversion facilities in most states.

Countries, including several African nations, have introduced measures to cushion the impact of the cost-of-living crisis triggered by high costs of fuel.

For instance, the Kenyan government introduced fuel tax adjustments and energy support measures after rising global crude prices threatened transportation and food supply chains.

In April, President William Ruto said the government moved to calm growing public anxiety over rising fuel prices, insisting that government subsidies, tax cuts and import arrangements have helped prevent steeper increases at the pump.

“The price of fuel has increased everywhere in the world, but in Kenya, we had planned to ensure that the prices, which would have increased very highly, were moderated. The government has used Sh6.5bn to subsidise fuel costs in Kenya. We have also reduced VAT to ensure that we moderate fuel prices, and I want to assure you that my government will do all it can,” Ruto said.

In South Africa, temporary fuel levy adjustments and expanded interventions were introduced to limit imported fuel inflation.

The Minister of Finance, in consultation with the energy ministry, approved a short-term cut of 300 cents per litre on petrol and 393 cents per litre on diesel. The relief measure ran from 6 May to 2 June 2026. The country also reviewed transportation support programmes amid concerns that rising diesel prices could worsen food inflation and logistics costs.

Namibia rolled out fuel price stabilisation interventions and subsidy support to protect transport operators and consumers from volatile international oil prices.

To reduce the impact on consumers, the government temporarily reduced or suspended selected statutory fuel levies by up to 50 per cent for three months from 1 April 2026.

India announced reductions in excise duties on petrol and diesel and urged state governments to cut local fuel taxes. The Indian government reduced excise duty on petrol from 13 Indian rupees per litre to 3 Indian rupees per litre while completely removing a ₹10 per litre excise duty on diesel. The intervention reportedly cost the government nearly ₹70bn every two weeks in lost revenue.

France expanded fuel rebate schemes for motorists while maintaining electricity support programmes worth billions of euros. The rebates reached as high as €0.30 per litre. Germany adopted temporary fuel tax reductions and expanded public transport incentives to reduce inflationary pressure.

The United Kingdom maintained energy support programmes and fuel duty freezes introduced during earlier energy crises. It maintained its 5p per litre fuel duty cut and continued household energy support programmes worth hundreds of pounds for vulnerable consumers.

The United States released millions of barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve and debated temporary fuel tax holidays to moderate gasoline prices. American lawmakers also debated a temporary federal gasoline tax holiday worth 18.4 cents per gallon to reduce fuel costs for consumers.

Experts seek transparent management of oil windfall

Dr. Ayodele Oni, an oil and gas expert, urged the federal government to adopt a disciplined and transparent approach to managing Nigeria’s emerging oil windfall, warning that the opportunity could be lost if the additional revenue is not deliberately saved and invested.

Oni said the current increase in crude oil prices presents Nigeria with an opportunity to strengthen the economic reforms implemented in recent years, particularly because some of the factors that undermined previous oil booms have changed.

“The first thing to say is that this windfall is real, and it is arriving at a time when Nigeria is far better placed to keep it than in past cycles,” he said.

According to him, Nigeria’s experience during previous periods of high oil prices, particularly in 2008 and 2011, showed how easily additional petroleum revenues could be absorbed by government policies and rising expenditure.

“In 2008 and 2011, high oil prices were largely consumed by fuel subsidies and an overvalued exchange rate,” he said.

Oni noted that the economic environment is different today, with the removal of the petrol subsidy and the adoption of a more market-determined exchange rate regime.

“Today, the subsidy is gone, the exchange rate is market-determined, gross reserves have climbed above $50 billion and the National Assembly has already moved the benchmark from $64.85 to $75 to bring part of the upside into the budget,” he said.

He said the priority should now be to consolidate the reforms rather than return to policies that could quickly consume the additional revenue.

“So what this portends, if handled properly, is a genuine chance to consolidate the reforms of the last three years rather than reverse them,” Oni said.

However, he cautioned against treating the entire difference between the budget benchmark and prevailing international crude prices as money available for immediate spending.

“I would also temper the framing slightly. The excess above the benchmark flows into the Federation Account and is shared monthly through FAAC, which is published. The question is therefore not whether the money exists on paper, but whether it is being ring-fenced and applied deliberately,” he said.

Oni also pointed to Nigeria’s production challenges, saying the country would have benefited more if it had achieved the production level contained in the 2026 budget.

On how to deploy the additional revenue, Oni identified four key priorities: transparency, targeted consumer support, investment in oil production, and strengthening the country’s financial position.

“First, transparency: publish a monthly statement of the excess crude proceeds and route the Federal Government’s share through the NSIA Stabilisation Fund, which has a statutory framework already in place,” he added.

He also opposed a return to blanket fuel subsidies, recommending targeted interventions instead.

“Second, use a defined portion to cushion consumers in a targeted way — transport support, accelerated CNG conversion, and ensuring domestic refineries, including Dangote, receive crude under the domestic supply obligation in naira — rather than returning to a blanket subsidy that would swallow the gain within months,” he said.

Oni further called for investment in infrastructure capable of increasing future oil revenue.

“Third, reinvest in what actually multiplies revenue: pipeline security, well restoration and unlocking the deepwater projects the recent tax remission order was designed to attract,” he said.

His fourth recommendation was for the government to strengthen its financial buffers.

“Fourth, protect the reserve position and pay down expensive debt,” he said.

Oni warned that Nigeria should not treat the current oil-price surge as a permanent source of income, saying, “Windfalls do not last. Gulf prices could fall as quickly as they rose. The institutions we build while the money is flowing are what will remain.”

Speaking to Daily Trust, Emeritus Professor of Petroleum Economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, said Nigeria’s recent crude price surge presents an opportunity, but the windfall must be managed within the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the approved national budget.

He stated that not all additional oil revenue is available for government spending as the PIA’s royalty-by-price mechanism legally commits part of the price increase to the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), where it becomes sovereign savings and investment capital rather than ordinary budget revenue.