₦airaland Forum

Long read... you have most of your figures wrong.
You can write a book on the challenges Nigeria faces- same with most countries. Again, that is not why I'm here. I'm interested in identifying opportunities in a changing world. The last two times I preached about opportunities here was last year which I considered a good time to approach the housing market and post covid, when I talked about options outside the UK. I'm glad I latched onto both even when it seemed like folly.

Response – My contention with property as a primary means of investment for growing wealth in today’s age is simply based on the fact that it is immobile and lacks the ability to scale wealth in ways IP does. A simple fund raising and a company is worth millions. Co-founders can extract a fraction of their wealth through debt and still invest in property or other businesses. This is the modern way of creating wealth. Property becomes a top up rather than a main route to wealth. Elon Musk has just demonstrated that again with their planned IPO for SpaceX at $1.25T valuation. Your property story is not being discounted, I am simply proposing an alternative that is timely for immigrants in today’s world.

I'd highlight a few oddities in your post.

1. You make the mistake of comparing GDP per capita without appreciating the economics of scale larger countries wield. Based on GDP per capita, China would be poorer than most European countries. How come they weild so much influence?

Response – If I go with this your logic, countries like Nigeria, DRC and Indonesia should wield similar influence? Economics of scale works when a country is able to develop the capacity of its population to grow wealth. China has been able to leverage its population along with fiscal discipline and a well-managed monetary policy in directly influencing capital allocation and priority areas. Overall, Chinese are much poorer than Europeans when purchasing power is compared. That is what economists use as a metric.

2. Already, over the last 20 years, most of the improvement in living standards happened outside the west. Its said that if you remove those China lifter out of poverty, the world has hardly made much improvement in poverty reduction in the last 20 yrs.

Response – Most of the improvement in living standards happened because of the gap. It is like saying party A is worth $1m today from $0.9m yesterday and party B has recently seen its wealth move from $50k to $500k. This does not mean Party B is worth more than Party A or better, it simply means the development gap Party B needs to cover is significant. This is what creates opportunity for investors. It is expected. Unfortunately, and as you concede, China has been responsible for MOST of this over the last 30 years and is plateauing meaning that growth from most Global South countries will start plateauing in the coming years.

3. Nigerias GDP never got to $800 B and India do not have 240 million in poverty. Get your facts right.

Response – Nigeria rebased her GDP in 2025 adding $235 billion to 2014 GDP. https://intelpoint.co/insights/nigerias-2024-gdp-just-got-a-65-billion-boost-after-the-2025-rebasing/

Reports show India having over 230 million people in poverty - https://thesouthfirst.com/news/india-has-23-4-crore-people-living-in-poverty-highest-in-the-world-un-report/

4. When I mention business interest rates, I point to opportunities to unlock tremendous growth by getting some basics right.

Response – Tremendous growth does not come from high interest rates. China leveraged low interest rates to drive private sector growth. In fact many business sectors were subsidised by the government with its currency deliberately undervalued for years to drive exports. Growth for China came from fiscal discipline, rapid expansion of exports (cheap manufacturing, cheap labour along with cheap loans) and a very well managed and aligned monetary policy. China does not run an exploitative economy. Growth driven by exploitation does not bode well for countries.

5. I don't get your obsession with PO- I'm all about leadership that'd get certain basics right.

Response – PO was mentioned without proper context (a fault on my part). I mentioned him to state that even our best shot (PO) at getting Nigeria right will fail because of the scale of what is needed for which we don’t have the funds.

All said, I can only thank God I'm one of those youths Nigeria produced.

Response – Excellent.


Going forward, let me preview your submissions here first.
As per your submissions :
1. Folks living in Africa are useless to humanity. Perhaps, they should unalive themselves and become manure

Response – You misstate my statement because you fail to contextualise it so not much my response can do here.

2. Any youth not in the top-10 world cities is useless to humanity (which ironically includes most of Europe). Now that Trump is shutting the U.S, should Europeans also convert themselves to manure?

Response – Lol. I actually said 20 and the Network effect of London and Paris covers Europe. Today, living in close proximity to top cities is what creates early access to opportunities to grow wealth. Being able to access funds investing in early and disruptive startups about to IPO is a function of proximity. Being able to even access funds, grants, abundant cloud resources or infrastructure to do significant work in your startup or AI is a function of proximity to top global cities. As harsh as the statement may sound, this is why the most valuable startups and businesses coalesce around these cities and where wealth id mostly created.

3. Anyone without £300k to take risk is useless to humanity. Lol...

Response – Again, you overexaggerate and misstate my statement here. This was talking about folks pooling together £300k and there was a context to this.

4. Not too long ago, you were mocking those who bought houses- an endeavour which has been a sure way to build wealth in the west

Response – I never mock. I stated that the property thread had died off. This was an observation and was contextualised with the rising anti-immigration sentiments in the UK. Most immigrant facing possible extension of their stay in the UK won’t be eager to take a mortgage. It is just gumption.

5. Now, you're preaching to folks to liquidate their pensions- a path that is sure to render many destitute in retirement.

Response – Again, you overexaggerate my statements. I was specifically talking about state pension reforms and how the government will be coming for immigrants by making it a benefit. When I responded to you earlier, I argued about wealth protection strategies for immigrants without settlement in light of growing anti-immigrant sentiments.

There is more to life than ip. The reality we live in far different from aspire to acquire.

Response – Not sure what this means but in today’s age, IP is the default wealth creation strategy hence the prevalence of VCs and startups and innovation, etc. It is IP everywhere. It does not discount other means but if people can also explore it, why not? Aspire to acquire is more the field of Fela Durotoye and co. Not sure how it works in today’s world. Maybe when I bring my “much anticipated” course on “10 proven ways on how to be a millionaire from your startup”, I can sign up to the group.

Lastly, it's easy to hide under the cowardly phrase- 'you're lucky because you're doctor' without appreciating the difference in mindset and approach. I was singing it like a song several years back that we're in the west cos we're needed, some folks thought I was proud and they were being invited to a lovefeast. Today, its kitikata. I had every opportunity to remain in Nigeria and the UK and be a top- 5% earner for the rest of my career. Yet I left - unapologetically. I'm glad that I'm at a point today where I can ask myself- to what end and not live to chase the next pay check.

Response – Hmmm…. You are not lucky because you are a doctor. You are lucky or fortunate because you left Nigeria timely and was able to thrive in societies that made sense of your prior training and availability. If you remained in Nigeria, would you have seen any significant rise in your quality of life compared to what it is today or the resources you can access? One’s profession is not necessarily important in wealth creation today. What matters is that you are in an environment that can take you and enable you create wealth. People “in the abroad” are killing it in food business and fashion design and startups and professional careers. There are also people with solid mindsets in Nigeria overwhelmed by poverty. Their mindset notwithstanding, they are unable to defeat the barriers setup by ecosystem that bounds them.

I think we are somehow aligned but talking past ourselves.

The key issues you raised ab initio to which I replied are as follows:

Most of the economic growth that the world would see in the coming decades would likely be outside the West. Many western nations are stagnating with things not looking to get better as their population ages.

Response – Not true again. Population growth is getting decoupled from GDP. In fact most of the $10T in wealth Donald Trump destroyed with his tariffs came from the US, UK, and Europe. AI has made population “irrelevant” as wealth has become intangible. The US GDP has been growing at averagely $1T yearly just from intangibles. Remove China and most of the Global South has plateaued or is in decline.

As we clobber to get in, let's remember we'd be fighting for a hardly growing pot without the headstart native populations have. The statistical reality is that many coming in would be stuck art lower rungs of society except they work terribly hard. The odds are stacked against them. We can see this among descendants of Caribbean migrants in London and the midlands- quite a few are struggling.
At some point we'd ask ourselves... to what end? (Yes, I can appreciate most narratives and see how they tie-in)

Response – This has been disrupted. World economy is growing (proxy GDP). Folks from migrant communities are getting into the financial space and startup space and changing the dynamics wealth-wise. Diversity policies have created pathways for many to secure access to ivy leagues and on to great careers in fantastic companies. Opportunities are actually more now than ever before because of AI and innovation in general.

I have increasingly seen my colleagues think home -not because they look to relocate soon but because they see the opportunities there. Many have set up short-term lets some of which are priced in USD. I remember strongly considering investing in the Nigerian st0ck market a few years back as it seemed primed. I ultimately decided not to but its grown over 2x since. No regrets.

Response – Nigeria’s stock market is a giant ponzi scheme with limited liquidity. Transcorp moving from 51 kobo to 51 Naira is bonkers.

PO once mentioned how Indians in the west took readily available 'cheap' loans to invest in India. I saw the point but devaluation was the achilles heel. A successful business in 9ja owner recently told me they were seeking a bank loan and being quoted an interest rate of 37% with 2yr repayment by their bank. This got me scratching my head both for the locked opportunities and growth that could ensue when that is tapped.

Response – China deliberately devalued its currency for years and that made its exports cheaper. Devaluation is a sound strategy when you are export heavy. Black market finance operations is evidence of market and government failure. When systems work (not perfect but work), they die off easily. No country builds wealth on exploitation and thrives.

I am not trying to convince anyone, but just like it was clear to me years back that I had better opportunities outside the UK, it's clear to me now that there are ready opportunities back home. All I pray for is a decent government and fairly stable currency. I dont even want the government to work wonders- just don't be a Buhari.

Response – You cite anecdotal reasons, so I cannot argue with that. The data however says otherwise.

jedisco:
Long read... you have most of your figures wrong.
You can write a book on the challenges Nigeria faces- same with most countries. Again, that is not why I'm here. I'm interested in identifying opportunities in a changing world. The last two times I preached about opportunities here was last year which I considered a good time to approach the housing market and post covid, when I talked about options outside the UK. I'm glad I latched onto both even when it seemed like folly.

I'd highlight a few oddities in your post.

1. You make the mistake of comparing GDP per capita without appreciating the economics of scale larger countries wield. Based on GDP per capita, China would be poorer than most European countries. How come they weild so much influence?

2. Already, over the last 20 years, most of the improvement in living standards happened outside the west. Its said that if you remove those China lifter out of poverty, the world has hardly made much improvement in poverty reduction in the last 20 yrs.

3. Nigerias GDP never got to $800 B and India do not have 240 million in poverty. Get your facts right.

4. When I mention business interest rates, I point to opportunities to unlock tremendous growth by getting some basics right.

5. I don't get your obsession with PO- I'm all about leadership that'd get certain basics right.

All said, I can only thank God I'm one of those youths Nigeria produced.


Going forward, let me preview your submissions here first.
As per your submissions :
1. Folks living in Africa are useless to humanity. Perhaps, they should unalive themselves and become manure
2. Any youth not in the top-10 world cities is useless to humanity (which ironically includes most of Europe). Now that Trump is shutting the U.S, should Europeans also convert themselves to manure?
3. Anyone without £300k to take risk is useless to humanity.
4. Not too long ago, you were mocking those who bought houses- an endeavour which has been a sure way to build wealth in the west
5. Now, you're preaching to folks to liquidate their pensions- a path that is sure to render many destitute in retirement.

There is more to life than ip. The reality we live in far different from aspire to acquire.


Lastly, it's easy to hide under the cowardly phrase- 'you're lucky because you're doctor' without appreciating the difference in mindset and approach. I was singing it like a song several years back that we're in the west cos we're needed, some folks thought I was proud and they were being invited to a lovefeast. Today, its kitikata. I had every opportunity to remain in Nigeria and the UK and be a top 2% earner for the rest of my career. Yet I left - unapologetically. I'm glad that I'm at a point today where I can ask myself- to what end and not live to chase the next pay check.

It is indeed a breath of fresh air today for the UK and the innovation space and for all lovers of gardening who use shovels (credit to Denny Crane in Boston Legal). It is obvious that the UK is now feeling the threat of being left behind in the AI and software age. Our company has filed 4 AI patents with the US PTO in the last 18 months and will file 6 more AI patents with the US PTO in the next 2 months God willing. By year end, we hope to file up to 50 AI patents with the US PTO (Amen!). At $15k/patent, that is $0.75M to the US and not the UK. Because all our patents are AI (utility) patents, they are not eligible for filing with the UK IPO because of Aerotel. However, with today’s Supreme Court ruling, the Aerotel Model has been discarded in favour of a lighter touch approach.

While this is good news, I would not be filing any first patent with the UK IPO. I would stick with the US who have been more practical in supporting innovation and AI based patents. While China grants 1 million patents yearly and the US 370k, the UK is granting under 10k patents yearly. I think the UK is still elitist in how it reviews and assesses patents and I do not want to be fodder for them for now.

This reminds me of uni back in Nigeria. When Covenant University (CU) started, it was not uncommon to see them graduating 7-10% of a cohort with first class. Federal universities felt it was a thing of pride to graduate just a handful of students with first class. What did this result in – CU and other private university graduates became heavily represented in most scholarships and work placements. Seeing how useless their beliefs were as well as the bad publicity for them, first class became “liberalised” leading to parity between Federal and Private universities in terms of first-class graduates.

I am now a bit sceptical about the position that most future growth will occurr outside of the west (I published in line with this in time past but my stance is changing) and this is because we are making one huge assumption - that outside of the west (e.g. Africa) has the capable labour force that will enable or drive this. This may not be true considering that about 70% of Africa's youth population are poor. Coupled with the absence of any governance framework in Africa that can evolve frameworks to drive up GDP/Capita, most of Africa's youth will end up being net negative contributors to national GDP. With the financialisation of commodities and almost every aspect of society, Africa is not poised to determine or impact how its services should be priced. Growth in Africa will ONLY be possible if we achieve full integration within Africa along with EU style freedom of movement of goods and people. That in itself also has a timeline as the more Africa's youths get poorer, the more difficult it will be to lift them up and see them become net positive contributors.

I acknowledge your observation of the Nigeria bourse but let's be clear - it is nothing more than a big Ponzi scheme. Today, investors in a number of stocks on the NGX like Geregu are unable to divest because of general lack of liquidity. A critical assessment of P/E ratios, earnings and valuation of many companies also shows market manipulations of the stock market. Whatever growth is noted, there is no corresponding growth in liquidity (proxied via FDI). Remember that we had similar scenarios during the era of Ndi Okereke Onyiuke where the banks played bananas with shareholder funds and we saw the collapse of their prices. I want you to pause and think of how a company like Transcorp that had its share price collapse to 50 Kobo is now worth over 51 Naira today. Nigeria is a Ponzi scheme.

Another thing we must not confuse is our anecdotal views and what the data states. Network effect may put you in close proximity with folks in high paying jobs who also feel that their observation of a "buoyant economy" in Nigeria justifies remittances back home to "invest". The data is very dire. Nigeria's GDP has collapsed from over $800 billion in 2014 to just under $300 billion in 2025. This is not good news. In that same time, our population has increased meaning we have gotten poorer. Imagine this - Nigeria with a 6th of India's population has about 87 million people in acute poverty compared to about 240 million in India.

One other thing you must note in Nigeria is the huge money laundering machine it has become. Yes, Nigeria has exited FATF list, however there is a very coordinated money laundering system prevalent in Nigeria. We see this in the property market, the kidnapping gangs and contracting. It is pervasive and very organised but is what drives new Nigeria - not enterprise.

India is a painful example because despite their huge population, they have been unable to generate a huge GDP to boost GDP/Capita. Today, nominal GDP/Capita for select countries/regions are US ($89k), Europe (avg) at ($42k), China ($13k), Botswana ($7k), Namibia ($5k), Cambodia ($2k), Nigeria ($1.2k) and India ($3k). African countries like Namibia and Botswana have a better chance of being more economically powerful (GDP/capita wise) compared to India. I also think $5k is a sweet spot (arbitrarily chosen I must concede) to gauge any country that can grow wealth for its people and you can see that Nigeria is not near that figure.

I agree that some semblance of "opportunities do exist, but the huge risks and absence of competent leadership and better use of our resources which have lasted for the better part of the last 60+ years mean that we have lost the possibility of any sensible recovery. You do not want to retire to chaos, rampant crime and huge social unrest. Such environment cannot also be conducive for growing actual wealth. What you will find there is mostly extraction and exploitation. Also, what we call opportunities are nothing but evidence of market and government failures. If we have MPR rates so high at 27% compared to a 15% interest rate, that creates a distrust in inflation values and indicates that the government has lost control of how to rein in the huge cash in the informal sectors. If ATMs worked and money transfer worked like M-PESA, businesses like Moniepoint and maybe O-Pay will be out of business. If financial services made money from deals (loans to the real economy) rather than bank charges and arbitrage from "shorting" the Naira (through dollar-Naira trading) along with widespread presence, people will be incentivised to bank more than transact with cash. If government had a huge housing development scheme and effective transport networks (e.g. fast train between Ibadan and Lagos), property prices and rent will collapse, Lagos will be decongested and states like Oyo and Ogun will see more development. Most of what we think are "opportunities" are simply outcomes from failed market and government policies.

A lot of folks are sick in Nigeria, there is paucity of good healthcare facilities in Nigeria. Do you think this "opportunity" will exist if government did their jobs? Why do we have a lot of private universities in Nigeria - simply because government owned universities have failed. We really should not be talking about "opportunities" because of market and government failures but rather in the sense of improvement in efficiency. This is what will create the scaler effect driving huge benefits, creating more opportunities and generating wealth. This is why I argue that Nigeria is on a managed economic collapse. The government has failed to act for decades and now Nigeria has become this complex maze of failed sectors that are poorly funded and with officials that are at loss of what needs to be done. Let me shock you - Peter Obi will fail woefully. He will fail because the only way for Nigeria to achieve any meaningful progress is to see its acute poverty list permanently decrease by 50% in 4 years. That will mean huge industries, massive industrialisation at a fifth of China's scale. That will cost trillions which we don't have and which have been squandered.

My call for our people to be extremely cautious about returning to Nigeria is to ensure that people who are stuck with the catastrophic immigration policies here in the west do not end up going back home and ending up losing everything. The west for now still provides the safety and exposure to the changing world especially for their kids compared to what is obtainable in Nigeria. As long as they have a fighting chance to remain here, let them try. Back home, it is more of dog eat dog system that places no value on your capabilities but your subscription to the infinity logo.

Lastly, I know we don't agree on the issue of the contribution of our youths to humanity, but think of how you can move freely between Canada and the UK and enjoy superior pay as a medical professional in Canada? Think of the exposure, access to latest tech and literature and ecosystem of sane humans you get to meet. Imagine how that improves your capabilities and makes you more valuable? This is what Nigeria cannot provide. Think of how the systems are setup to make you your best option, this is what will be lost going back to Nigeria. Today, we have an outbreak of Lassa fever in Nigeria and states are denying it. We had over 150 people kidnapped in a Northern state some weeks ago and the police denied it and later recanted. That is what Nigeria has to offer. We are building a coastal road to nowhere while we have for over 40 years failed to build a simple dam in Benue to absorb excess release from Cameroon leading to thousands of deaths every year. No child or youth is such a system is thinking of innovation or growth or productivity. Nigerians cannot get most US visas (immigrant and non-immigrant) today. Nigerians are far behind in AI infrastructure (we have no one in Africa). This is not a place where immigrants here in the west confronting fluid immigration policies should be encouraged to go. They will find themselves trapped in circumstances that will grind them down.

jedisco:
In times like this, it's difficult to challenge certain narratives. Lets not miss the forest for the trees.

Most of the economic growth that the world would see in the coming decades would likely be outside the West. Many western nations are stagnating with things not looking to get better as their population ages. As we clobber to get in, let's remember we'd be fighting for a hardly growing pot without the headstart native populations have. The statistical reality is that many coming in would be stuck art lower rungs of society except they work terribly hard. The odds are stacked against them. We can see this among descendants of Caribbean migrants in London and the midlands- quite a few are struggling.
At some point we'd ask ourselves... to what end? (Yes, I can appreciate most narratives and see how they tie-in)

For enterprising ones, the focus should not just be on where the opportunity train has been but where it's going

I have increasingly seen my colleagues think home -not because they look to relocate soon but because they see the opportunities there. Many have set up short-term lets some of which are priced in USD. I remember strongly considering investing in the Nigerian st0ck market a few years back as it seemed primed. I ultimately decided not to but its grown over 2x since. No regrets. Of late, I stumbled upon a community on Reddit called 'BackToIndia' which is a constitutes of Indians looking to move back. It was interesting reading posts there. While some were being forced to make that move, some established Indians in the west were making same move due to opportunities they see back home.

I visit Nigeria almost every year and for the first time in a while, I'm beginning to see fresh shoots of progress. Nigeria can effortlessly grow at a rate of 5% pa for the next 20yrs. Virtually no western nation can. With the right capital and knowledge which we have - that's a waiting opportunity to be tapped.

PO once mentioned how Indians in the west took readily available 'cheap' loans to invest in India. I saw the point but devaluation was the achilles heel. A successful business in 9ja owner recently told me they were seeking a bank loan and being quoted an interest rate of 37% with 2yr repayment by their bank. This got me scratching my head both for the locked opportunities and growth that could ensue when that is tapped.

I am not trying to convince anyone, but just like it was clear to me years back that I had better opportunities outside the UK, it's clear to me now that there are ready opportunities back home. All I pray for is a decent government and fairly stable currency. I dont even want the government to work wonders- just don't be a Buhari.

While we stew over the extreme thought that state pension reforms will be a target by the UK government which would lead to more punitive immigration policies that will seek to elongate qualifying periods to citizenship, I want us to be quite vigilant and understand that most of what we see is smoke screen. I now see no material difference between Shabana Mahmoud and Kristi Noem. They have achieved convergence in low intelligence, empty talks and aggressive immigration policies. So the tweet from Home Office on twitter is exactly at par with what the DHS puts out on X.

Another extreme thought of mine is that the UK government will come for your assets as an unsettled immigrant.

Some 10 days ago, Sue Reid was on GBnews and made a blanket statement that “MIGRANTS ARE SENDING £24.5 BILLION HOME FROM THE UK EACH YEAR”. I want you to think about this statement deeply – the key word is MIGRANTS, and the statement positioning was deliberate. At a time when there is growing anti-immigrant sentiments in the UK, along with discussions about the huge financial burden illegal migrants are placing on public purse, this discussion was fed to the public to deliberately lump migrants (both legal and illegal) into a false narrative deliberately obfuscating the truth.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huvfP13-oss

Why is this worrisome? Last year, when Trump decided to take up Ilhan Abdullahi Omar using Somalians as proxy, they created this narrative of how a lot of Somalians were illegals, were fraudulent and were illegally repatriating benefits claimed fraudulently in the US. The result was that the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) now requires banks and money transfer operators in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties in Minnesota to report overseas transfers exceeding $3,000, a significant reduction from the standard $10,000 reporting limit.

This crackdown specifically targets the Somali diaspora in Minnesota, which houses the largest Somali community in the U.S. This is in addition to the 3.5% levy (contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill) on overseas remittances by non-citizens in the US via physical instruments. Without any sensible justification, delegated legislation is being used to create a surveillance system on Somalians and non-citizens. Private players like Palantir can utilise all the backend information in determining nexus points, allowing external players leverage this information in systematically dismantling the ability of these communities to build wealth.

In 3 years’ time, assess the Somalian community and the deviation from their living standards today would be very significant. Today, the USCIS has deliberately throttled the ability for Indians to secure in a timely manner visas from India to the US. H1-B applicants who came in for stamping in 2026 now have to wait till 2027 for an appointment. This is how backend information is utilised. The impact is telling. Massive drops in international students coming in, massive decline in foreign workers coming in and a deliberate attempt to shift the demographic composition of various visa categories.

I closely monitored discussions and comments on social media following Sue Reid’s false statement and some of the take outs were quite disturbing. White British folks were advocating for massive taxes on foreign remittances arguing that such taxes were necessary to compensate for lost VAT revenue were such funds to be spent in the UK. The general thinking of many of these folks is that the majority of what we remit is gotten from benefits we claim fraudulently in the UK. There have been talks about how many hospitals and roads and schools are being lost because of immigrants claiming billions of pounds in benefits and sending such back home. The depth of this crass ignominy being displayed by White British folks is even more worrisome when you realise that Boris Johnson actually and wrongly argued in parliament as PM that immigrants (skilled worker visa holders) could access public funds (during the Covid pandemic).

The core of the arguments being put forward to de-sensitise the public (White British) by the right leaning parties and racists are as follows:
Values: Immigrants are undermining British values like Christianity, Whiteness, Demography and culture. The roles played by BAME immigrants in keeping key sectors like healthcare and education running is being downplayed. The argument will hype scattered incidents to drive fear among the population. I keep wondering when Tommy Robinson became a Christian or when Christianity became a British value.

Crime: Immigrants are responsible on a per capita basis for most of the sex crimes in the UK. They would carefully ignore the fact that almost 90% of sex crimes are committed by White British folks and that even if all immigrants stopped committing sex crimes, there would be no material change in incidence/occurrence. Here, we must call out the Pakistani’s who are responsible for most of the sex crimes among BAME.

Welfare: Immigrants are responsible for the inability of the State to increase welfare benefits to White British folks. They (immigrants) are the ones taking all the council homes, not working and also fraudulently claiming benefits and sending them overseas to build mansions. Here, we must call out the Pakistani’s who are responsible for the highest number of non-workers among the 16-64 years category within the BAME community.

Services: Immigrants are responsible for your inability to access services like GP appointments. Immigrants who have to pay £1,035 every year (as adults or £900+ as children) they are in the UK without settlement are being blamed for the inability of White British folks to see a GP – not the inability of the UK government to increase the number of British doctors to be trained across the UK or the inability of the UK government to actually build hospitals and employ more staff.

Contribution: Immigrants are net negative contributors to the economy with only White British folks being net positive contributors. This is official data from the ONS (a very incompetent organisation). They fail to realise that average White British are over 43 years and in their peak earning periods compared to under 20 for most immigrant groups. They also fail to acknowledge that this demography spread is great for the UK as it helps to compensate for the UK ageing population ensuring that as immigrant groups aged a steady supply of labour is guaranteed. You also wonder how MAC fits into all these.

I could go on but the careful programming will concentrate on sowing fear and advocating for more draconian policies by the UK government on wealth from foreigners who would be accused of not paying their fair share (whatever that means).

Similar to the US, we should expect to in the near future see laws that will place taxes on foreign remittances (I won’t be surprised if the rate starts off aggressively at 7.5% - 15% to allow for quick parity with VAT) along with greater surveillance on non-British citizens moving funds legitimately.

For those who may argue that this is extreme and impossible, the latest pervasive immigration policies and punitive proposed time limits for earned settlement are great examples of some extremes we all never believed could even be spoken off. Keir Starmer may concede the 15 years earned limit for care workers to garner support from Labour back benchers, but subsequent governments will have to accelerate draconian policies to prevent the UK from going bankrupt quicker than expected. God help us if Reform gets in.

I will plead that we continue to broaden our residency options and move fast – please move fast. Yesterday, Nigerians had the option of securing green cards easily to the US and PR to Canada (loud). Today, the US is off the list with Canada now a snowball chance in hell. Switzerland is warming up for a vote to cap population at 10 million (setting up potential fight with EU and ECHR). Folks, please explore any possible option to have a wide range of options. It is expensive but worth it. Student route or whatever, try it. You need to have options. Don’t compare yourselves with folks who have been lucky to escape. Don’t also live life hoping that things back home will change. Nigeria is not an option. It has gone past the point of recovery. Nigeria is on a managed economic collapse. Anyone selling you on Nigeria is lying. The country is gone. Whatever you are seeing are the last moves of a dead horse.

As usual, I am not a financial adviser and please always consult a financial adviser.

Just some random extreme thoughts.

I can safely assume that if the UK government is able to legislate to increase the timeline for earned settlement in order to throttle the number of qualifying immigrants, then the following:
1. Settlement timelines can be retroactively changed
2. Different migrant categories deserve different timelines based on "contribution"
3. Settlement doesn't guarantee full social rights (being noises around)
4. This can all be done without parliamentary debate (Immigration Rules changes)

having been established, the next plan from the UK government will be to focus on "state pensions reforms". The arguments will be an exact replica - the number of immigrants who will qualify for state pensions by say 2052 will bankrupt the state as we would have more persons on pension than working. They would talk about the need to keep people working longer especially immigrants and how citizenship is not a right but a privilege (please always look out for this statement as its prevalence in HO correspondence is a psyops to numb the fact that it is your right to acquire British Citizenship if you have met the time requirements and good character aspect - you CANNOT be denied citizenshipif you apply having met all requirements).

The "reforms" will focus on:
1. Making state pension a benefit. They will find ways to argue that NI contributions today are immaterial to the benefits that payers derive from living and working in the UK (I can evidence this as a fact that our NI and taxes are far lesser than the value we get from living and working in the UK. The justification of this will rely on "intangible" benefits (peace, prestige, exposure, community, access, name and location brand, etc.) whose quantification is subjective like Elon Musk's wealth). Government already argues visa fees reflect "value" of UK access. Remember that there are 3 types of lies - lies, damned lies and statistics.
2. Making the minimum qualification to enjoy state pension outside period of contribution to be having a British citizenship.
3. Making this forward looking rather than retroactive (to avoid clashes with ECHR). The goal will be to make getting citizenship more laborious (Kemi's 15 years comes into play) after ILR.

Remember, the government will by then (through current reforms) have:
1. Established retroactivity is acceptable
2. Created precedent for differential treatment
3. Signaled openness to restricting ILR rights
4. Done this with minimal opposition

As you plan, please plan wisely. The immigrant is about to be properly set in a visual rat race. We are about to launch the creation of a generation or two of frustrated immigrants with outcomes far worse than during the slave trade era. The UK lacks any means of wealth creation (growth) beyond exploitation and extraction from workers. This is why they will continue to skew policies to bait and trap workers for as long as possible.

I agree but the question remains - how can the salary thresholds for care workers be increased? Seeing what folks earn, it is no surprise they end up depending on some form of benefits against their visa requirements. Remuneration across UK is very poor for low-level healthcare workers compared to their contributions. I am not saying they should be paid at the same rate of doctors.

I say this because if these care workers re on £50k - £65k, there will be no noise on immigrants. That amount alone is enough (through their taxes) to assuage any impact they will have on infrastructure.

Yes, Italy is also doing same thing similar to Spain. I feel they are in short supply of cheap labour. The key thing to watch out for will be the wording - will these immigrants be able to settle in time and free to roam EU?

Lastly, the issue of 15 years is something I hope they concede on. My fear is that they may want to outdo Reform and the Conservatives on who is the most heartless to immigrants. I hope and pray they at least concede (even the 11/12 you suggest is not good, it is too long a time to be an employee without freedom. Freedom (Igba Boi) is 7 years!) because 15 (or 11/12) years of misery in this UK as an employee with no freedom is actually a death sentence (literally) - hungry free man or well fed slave (slave is not even well fed!).

Zahra29:
I

💯

Agree with your analysis of the debate and proposed changes. Just a few points to add:

2. It was ever thus with the immigration debate in the UK. Immigration has been a key talking and political point since the early 2000s, especially when immigration levels ballooned (relative to previous years) under Blair. Labour was blamed for "open door/mass immigration" and this label stuck hard over the last 2 decades, partly why they are keen to now show that they can also be tough on immigration in order to regain the public's trust in this area.
However, even if they manage to bring net migration down to zero, immigration will remain a talking point - just like the weather lol

3. Spain appears to be more immigrant friendly - they are about to use a defacto royal decree to grant an amnesty to over 500k illegal migrants which would make them an outlier in the current western landscape. So perhaps Spain could become an option B,C or D for some for settlement.

In contrast, Sweden is apparently looking to legislate to revoke permanent residence from those previously granted refugee status,and move them to a temporary and less generous residence framework.

Care workers are definitely being targeted more harshly. This is a deliberate government strategy for these main reasons:

- The bulk of the "Boris wave" is made up of health and care visas. The government has estimated that for 40k care vacancies, over 600k care workers and their dependants came in over a 2 year period
- The lower wages in the sector increases the likelihood of future dependence on welfare. (In-work benefits such as universal credit can be accessed by those on low incomes)
- The large scale of immigration fraud and exploitation in the care sector which has received extensive coverage in the media
- over 95% of care workers are from Africa and south East Asia which makes immigration more "obvious" and has angered Brexiteers who feel betrayed that white migrants from Europe were replaced with black and brown migrants from the developing world.

However I don't think the government will go through with imposing a 15 year settlement timeline for care workers or <RQF 6 roles
as this will be seen as unduly harsh. It will likely be the 10 years baseline or perhaps slightly longer e.g 11/12 years.

If this pans out as you say (which unfortunately is looking likely), it will be unfair. This was the only reason I was able to get my ILR under 1 year of getting my GTV because time spent on my skilled worker visa counted! In fact, there were folks who applied for their ILR less than three months after getting the GTV as they needed to evidence income on GTV.

Anyone transitioning from a skilled visa route to a GTV needs to ONLY show evidence of an income on the new GTV and evidence of the qualifying period (including time spent on previous skilled worker visa) to apply for their ILR.

I hope the policy makers don't end up messing up things. The UK has too many rules that they themselves are now confused!

Another thing I am noticing from the questioning by MPs is that you cannot advocate for what you have no experience with. Any common sense MP should have at least a team of 3 current immigrants on visas having different routes to ensure they can ask relevant questions.

Shabana was just mouthing word salad during her questioning because these MPs couldn't articulate the right questions. I believe our community needs to do better on this next time.

All through the questionings, the presentations have been more reliant on empathy rather than logic. Logical questions would have disgraced the HO like Kemi did to the PM.

First, no MP has raised the issue of how increases in visa fees and IHS surcharges have been excessive and retrospective and how it deliberately punishes immigrants. Immigrants who paid an amount when they came have seen renewal for visa fees rise by over 60%. Salaries have not risen by such amounts. Immigrants are being asked to pay newer and higher fees which is unjust and unethical because the increases far surpass their expectations when they were applying in the first place. Visa fees for such folks should be capped at their rate when applying initially with tolerance granted based on inflation figures. This here is the major issue affecting immigrants. The excessive visa fees are practically crippling families.

Second, no MP has raised the issue of the inter-marriage between different visas (as you raised) and how the HO is addressing this. These become serious matters tomorrow when the HO has to clarify a position because they failed to handle it ab initio.

Lastly, no MP has raised issues of how the HO is deliberately weaponising hostilities against employers to make life difficult for employees. The employer cost for COS for employees over 5 years is huge for small businesses. What is the rationale for this? The baseline salary of £42k is also bonkers, what is the rationale for this? Even the UK government realised that increasing the minimum salary threshold was a deliberate “own goal” forcing them to decouple the minimum salary of citizens (~£29k who want to sponsor their partners) from that of immigrants (~£42k). They realised that the growth in the salary requirement (to ~£42k) was punitive for citizens and quite illogical but were ok to see this applied for immigrants. Why have MPs not debated this?

Timeline may be long, but if surrounding conditions are fair, people will be able to thrive, save and explore other options. It seems the UK govt wants to frustrate immigrants and ensure they end up wasted, poor and scrawny by the time they qualify for settlement.

I don't see immigrants getting any win at all (maybe they will concede the 15 years) from this whole debate.

HustlaOfLagos:
You have said it all, there is nothing left for me to add but I do believe folks earning well will have it easier and those on GTV.

It does seem like time on skilled worker visas will also no longer count towards the GTV route (not 100% sure about this but I am assuming due to the default 10 year route) as it now explicitly says "GTV holders should have spent 3 yrs - 5 yrson the route before their ILR app"

Watched the debate (on skip mode). What popped up for me was what the minister kept alluding to.

There are currently 1.3m+ people seeking council/social housing. 2.2m people will qualify for settlement between now and 2030 (I hope I got this right). The labour government's plan is 1.5m houses within this current government. This means that allowing these 2.2m+ people to qualify will overwhelm the system. Arguments that visa holders do not currently enjoy benefits was countered with data that ILR applicants are increasingly becoming dependent on benefits.

Arguments on stability was countered by the minister who argued that people on visas can access schooling, NHS, banking and financial services, own a home, go out and return without hassles etc.

Questions on how the sliding scale will work and answers provided by the minister evidenced what I had always thought. This government in reacting to Reform and the Conservatives proposed policies for which it would be difficult to set up objective frameworks to access people's suitability for earlier settlement.

My take is simple:
1. Immigrants on visas are screwed. As an immigrant on a visa, there will be no objective way to assess your suitability due to the variety and complexity of different people. I foresee another Windrush or post office scandal where judgements will be passed by case handling officers based on "discretion" or arbitrarily rather than objective rules.
2. This immigration issue will linger more than expected. I am now certain that there will be many court cases and immigration will be weaponised by the labour government to distract the population from their poor handling of the economy and closer ties with the EU. If Reform or Conservative win the next GE, I expect immigration to dominate the airwaves for a while. This is because the UK is screwed economically and anything to distract from that will be welcome.
3. settlement will be longer, harder, more expensive, subjective, uncertain and messy. Getting a plan B, C and even D is now crucial for anyone who is not looking to qualify for settlement in 2026. I believe the US is out of question in this case for Nigerians (due to the ban).
4. The government is hell bent on maintaining their stance. They may concede a little to give peers a sense of having a say but overall, delegated powers will be wielded to avoid peers voting on most of the dangerous and painful clauses.
5. That spouses and dependents will now be assessed separately is bonkers. Yes, I agree with the argument of poor integration from some dependents. I feel that this mitigation is really punishing. Maybe a higher language requirement and minimum work experience with verifiable employers (whatever that means), but the full shebang is kind of an overkill. Something that shows dependents as being productive (even acting as primary care for the kids) should be enough!

Objectively, the issues here faced by the UK government are resource allocation and optimisation on the one hand and pressure from Western countries on the other hand. The UK is facing severe headwind risks economically, and so qualifying more people with an already stretched infrastructure is bound to lead to lower service delivery and lower quality of life without investments in expanding and improving infrastructure. The challenge here is that the UK by being retrospective with this policy has lost any iota of trust. Immigrants cannot trust the government to not shift stance tomorrow. The issue of western countries pressure is also glaring. Western countries are coordinating tighter immigration policies, and the UK risks being seen as an outlier if it does not follow suit.

The moral aspect which has been argued here on Nairaland is the fact that social and care workers who are instrumental to supporting the sick, elderly and disabled folks across the UK are being penalised with longer qualifying periods of up to 15 years because the immigration system places a lower value on their services (proxied via their income) compared to folks in finance and IT who can earn higher and reduce their qualifying time. What is instructive to note here is that the overwhelming majority of visa immigrants are in the social and care sectors. It would have been interesting if the majority of visa immigrants were in the tech or finance or IT sectors. It seems the government has banded everyone of them together and will punish that class since they make up the majority of visa immigrants - practical but immoral. This is quite funny because in the US, travelling nurses in California and New York are earning up to $11k/week (higher due to strikes). Same with Canada and Australia and New Zealand where medical personnel are well compensated. It seems remuneration in the UK is upside down.

Whatever the government decides going forward, I hope immigrants can navigate it and still lead fulfilling lives. It is a messed up world and like someone reminded me years ago on Nairaland, the world is going to hell in a handcart!

HustlaOfLagos:
Ongoing debate about 10 year and 700 year routes

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2026-02-02/debates/A0693D73-AD95-418E-86A6-FAB882454522/IndefiniteLeaveToRemain

It will take a miracle for it not to apply to people already in the country but majority of the folks oppose it.

If it will make them change their mind is another ball game entirely...

I wish I can recommend books, unfortunately I am very limited here. I am more into research papers and patents. However, one book I can recommend is Technofeudalism: what killed capitalism by Yanis Varoufakis.

I hope you enjoy it.

lavida001:
I always look forward to your post and books recommendation. I enjoy the capitalism without capital one. Kindly recommend more books if you can 🙏🏿

C'mon, you can't eat your cake and have it.

The first is you some time ago.

The second is you recently.

The third is the date of the new poster's account opening?

What's the difference?

Efetobore1980:
Even before the temporary restriction proclamation, especially the year 2024/25 sessions, the visa issuance quota 35%/ over 100 is almost usually the norm, due to Nigeria population . Nevertheless, your friend cannot witness the interview of up to 20 visa applicants after her interview (let's say she witnessed 30 people before her turn), therefore, her quotation of 80% visa denial is disputable.

That aside, your friend did not bribe anybody, neither is she related to the ambassador, ipso facto, she passed the interview and qualified for the visa.

The summary is that : Any F1 visa applicant who is found eligible for the visa will absolutely get the visa, regardless of the ongoing restriction. Congratulations to her.

This was posted today (7 hrs ago) on the US Mission in Nigeria X page.

I believe it clears all doubts regarding confusion as to non immigrant visa issuance.

https://x.com/USinNigeria/status/2013992035175313412?s=20

Some Crazy Observations

Introduction
We had an interesting discussion today with our patent attorney who stylishly revealed to us the long-term goal of patents.

A few years ago, I read the book titled Capitalism Without Capital: the rise of the intangible economy by Stian Westlake and Jonathan Haskel and the summary was humbling – wealth is no longer tangible but intangible. Basically, the way to generate wealth in today’s world and in the future is by IP and owning a business.

Via IP you can build a defensible and an attack mechanism over a product, process or name which enables you to extract rent from anyone who wants to leverage the IP. What was shocking from our discussion was that Howard Lutnick, the current US Commerce Secretary holds over 400 patents. Yes, you heard me. The guy working on those tariffs and responsible for trade within and without the US holds a staggering number of patents. Holding this amount of patent is not the end, there is an end game and that is IP-Feudalism. Having this number of patents means Lutnick can rent the patent collection to a hedge fund or PE or some other boutique businesses focused on IP infringements. These businesses then go on the offensive looking for anyone who has infringed and sue them to bankruptcy. This is the future that is being built. Lutnick does not want to compete with Google and Apple and Nvidia and Amazon who are playing the game of Techno-Feudalism (credit to Yanis Varoufakis), rather, he wants to play the game of IP-Feudalism. What is even humbling is that you do not need to build or design the product for which the patent is being filed for (I know this for utility patents, not sure of others).

What is the implication? Most US patents (utility and plant based) give you exclusivity for 20 years (e.g. 2020 – 2040) and 15 years for design patents. This means that no one can wake up and just implement some design or concept that infringes on a patent within its validity period and think they can sell into the US markets – you will be sued to bankruptcy.

Via owning a business, the game being played is the game of valuation. When you approach investors to raise $X, investors depending on the round get greedy and want to put your pre-raise valuation at say $2X - $5X. This implies that for a $10M raise, the business has a post raise valuation of $30M - $60M. When will this business become a unicorn? However, imagine raising $100M at $1B pre-raise (or $10M at $100M - $150M pre-raise), that automatically puts that business at the unicorn status opening crazy opportunities for it. Revenue will come but valuation now matters more at the beginning. That unicorn status gives you access to any tech major for partnerships. It gives you crazy access to cheap credit and makes it easier for you to scale and become a monopoly. There is no doubt that the next subsequent raises will be $0.5B - $1B at $10B, $1B - $5B at $150B and $5B - $10B at $1T and then IPO where access to funds becomes “unlimited”. As crazy as this sounds that is the game being played by all the majors. OpenAI is over $0.5T, SpaceX is estimated at $0.8T, etc. The investments put in by VCs early on are now worth crazy sums because the valuation is at a crazy level. This is why Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, etc with their appalling book value and revenue are worth trillions. The game is valuation.

The implication?
Unfortunately, raising crazy amounts today is only possible in the US and is a network thing. The easiest network is via an MBA at one of the “legacy or elite” universities - M7, T10 or T15. These are schools where family office operators are coming to get the stamp of the school and go on to inherit family businesses. These are the places where networks can be built with crazy RoI. These are the places that give you direct access to Silicon Valley or New York finance players.

Underlying factors
The current administration despite their crazy display is very friendly towards software-based patents because both the commerce secretary and the US PTO administrator (undersecretary for commerce) both worked together professionally, are friends and are building a crazy portfolio of patents. In fact, the Inter Parties Review (IPR) that big companies regularly used to kill patents at the US PTO has essentially been killed by the new administrator. Previously, big companies like Microsoft and hedge funds could spend $250K litigating against your patent to the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) where such litigation is meant to just kill the patent progress. The current US PTO administrator, John Squires has now killed that. In fact, he adjudicates on appeals and by the wordings of the law, his opinion on whether to take a case forward or not cannot be litigated against. He has rejected all the last six of such filings.

Another worrying factor is China. They have the largest trove of AI and software patents in the world and the gap between China and the US in patent ownership is widening at an alarming rate. To limit this, US PTO is being primed to be more favourably disposed to software-based patents. Recent appeal rulings against 101 rejections from examiners have evidenced this.

Summary
It is an interesting time, but it is crucial to understand how the game is being played right before our very eyes. We cannot idly watch another wealth bifurcation happen again (Covid was one, the 2008 financial crisis recovery was another, etc.) simply because we claim to be over worked or poor or unable to access what needs to be done. We must also note that the wealth bifurcation happening now is at orders of magnitude that excessively increase wealth for the already rich and will make it very difficult for the poor to even survive. This is because valuations generate crazy wealth which allows these wealthy folks to put huge pressure on the cost of living making it almost impossible for previously ok people to survive leading to gentrification. We must have a game plan to escape.

Fair enough and thanks.

Over to the students here.

[quote author=Efetobore1980 post=138136469][/quote]

This is no competition @Efetobore1980. The primacy of your contribution here is not being contested. If your insistence is based on empirical evidence then suggest what you think people can do to strengthen their chances when applying. You may not want to share the evidence but at least help with pointers that may give an edge. Folks are literally stranded and any little will help.

Efetobore1980:
I have empirical evidences , but I am not here to compete. No problem if this is how things work. Cheers.

You do realise that most US policies are first posted by President Trump on Truth Social, then retweeted on X before you get an official documentation? This is how President Trump wants to operate.

Efetobore1980:
Don't confuse yourself. Why the eagerness to post negative news on a wrong platform ? Besides, was it quoted from the U.S embassy or white house website ?

Old member of your kind should not be bias in addressing issues of this kind.

@Johnzak is this the B1/B2 thread ? At least you can support me in that sense. Let's do away with tribalism and favoritism.

I may not have seen it on the official website. Any competent poster, who does not want to deceive people should always quote official website or sources, and they should post in the right section.

Correction: Immigrant Visa not visa (see below posts from the twitter account of the DoS). @Efetobore1980 is right that I should have posted this (not on B1/B2) but on the immigrant (EB or family) visa thread.

Presidential Proclamation 10998 is still in effect and bans issuance of F1 visas (and other non-immigrant visas) to Nigerian students and others. see attached.

Note: Comprehension is one key issue here. This statement Visa applicants who are subject to Presidential Proclamation 10998 may still submit visa applications and schedule interviews, but they may be ineligible for visa issuance or admission to the United States is enough to clarify to you as a student who must have written GRE or GMAT or IELTS or TOEFL and learnt comprehension that you can apply, but F1 visa WILL NOT be issued. The proclamation is very clear on when exceptions can apply.

I will advice that you don't waste resources exploring the US for now as a potential student. That route is closed to Nigerians. Even those inside are unsure of their OPT issuance. Coming to the US as a Nigerian student (without another unbanned citizenship or PR status) is ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE because of 10998.

To @Efetobore1980, I trust you are doing great. I appreciate your continued support for students to keep applying to the US despite the obvious bans in place. Could you please sincerely advise why you think any student will be issued F1 when the 10998 Presidential Proclamation is still in effect? How did you come to the conclusion that the inclusion of Nigeria among nations to pay for visa bond signifies that the US is open to issuing visas to genuine people? Do you have any anecdotal evidence to justify this (I do not claim that this equates empirical evidence but your personal experience may help clarify your continued insistence)? It will be unfair to stick to this adverse advice knowing full well that these things cost time, money and effort and will fail. If they have no fall back options what then happens to their timelines/progression? I think we should keep an open mind here and advise strongly for potential students to diversify their options. The US is great but is closed to us for now, our thinking or feeling cannot reverse this.

WanderingChild:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/us-freezes-all-visa-processing-75-countries-including-somalia-russia-iran.amp

The US has now paused INDEFINITELY the processing of visas for 75 countries with Nigeria included. This is ontop of our ban and being a CPC as well as being included in the bond payment program.

I will advise anyone here who has interests in graduate studies to diversify your options. For now, the US is closed to you if you ONLY have a Nigerian citizenship. If you are a dual citizen and your 2nd nationality does not face a ban from the US then congrats. If you are a greencard holder or a US citizen, cheers.

Things can change tomorrow, but we cannot invest fully on such expectations. Rather than paying hefty fees for applications and visa ONLY to be certain of denial, please pause the US for now and focus on Europe, the UK, Asia, Middle East and Africa. There are loads of opportunities that abound, please explore them and take advantage of them.

What is crucial is that you keep moving. Nothing stops you from collaborating with the supervisors you are interested in working with while you chase other options elsewhere.

One last thing, if admission fees are waived for you in the US and you have a supervisor and the school allows, get the admission and defer. While you pursue other options try and have a "live" admission in the US. This is important so that if things change and the admission is still relevant to you, you can always reactivate your plans. It is like having a life insurance that you can borrow from.

I sympathise with every Nigerian student affected. This is very crushing. However we must learn the lessons as we evolve into leaders. What you and I suffer today as Nigerians is because we all share in the collective responsibility of our leadership. Our studies must make us better people; transformed individuals who can leverage innovation, collaboration, empathy and strength in turning Nigeria's fortune around. So learn from this pain and let it motivate you and I to be better leaders.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/us-freezes-all-visa-processing-75-countries-including-somalia-russia-iran.amp

The US has now paused INDEFINITELY the processing of visas for 75 countries with Nigeria included. This is ontop of our ban and being a CPC as well as being included in the bond payment program.

I will advise anyone here who has interests in graduate studies to diversify your options. For now, the US is closed to you if you ONLY have a Nigerian citizenship. If you are a dual citizen and your 2nd nationality does not face a ban from the US then congrats. If you are a greencard holder or a US citizen, cheers.

Things can change tomorrow, but we cannot invest fully on such expectations. Rather than paying hefty fees for applications and visa ONLY to be certain of denial, please pause the US for now and focus on Europe, the UK, Asia, Middle East and Africa. There are loads of opportunities that abound, please explore them and take advantage of them.

What is crucial is that you keep moving. Nothing stops you from collaborating with the supervisors you are interested in working with while you chase other options elsewhere.

One last thing, if admission fees are waived for you in the US and you have a supervisor and the school allows, get the admission and defer. While you pursue other options try and have a "live" admission in the US. This is important so that if things change and the admission is still relevant to you, you can always reactivate your plans. It is like having a life insurance that you can borrow from.

I sympathise with every Nigerian student affected. This is very crushing. However we must learn the lessons as we evolve into leaders. What you and I suffer today as Nigerians is because we all share in the collective responsibility of our leadership. Our studies must make us better people; transformed individuals who can leverage innovation, collaboration, empathy and strength in turning Nigeria's fortune around. So learn from this pain and let it motivate you and I to be better leaders.

I reflected on this deeply today and sincerely I can't pretend to feel your pains. Knowing the cost of paying for app fees, the travails of sending emails, preparing your proposal, reading for your GRE or GMAT, writing essays and SOPs etc and doing that as a Nigerian in Nigeria with all the hardships and challenges, I can't even imagine how you feel.

What is worse are folks planning for 2026 fall admission (MBA) who applied to R1 and just got notices of acceptance in December with scholarships! To realise that it may have been in vain is some calamity that I cannot even comprehend.

I will encourage you to keep hope alive and reach out to other schools. Keep the US tab open but have options.

This is now my default approach to doing things - having a lot of options. It is very expensive but it does keep one moving.

I wish you all the best.

yusman14:
I haven't been myself since yesterday that I read this. I'm a prospective graduate student planning to resume for fall 2026. I have spent money and put in alot of efforts, now all my dream of studying in the US has faded away.

I applied to more than 10 US schools and my recommenders submitted over 40 recommendations. All these efforts just in vain.

I have been depressed since yesterday.

This is the link to the December 2025 proclamation.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/

Section 7 in the proclaimation clearly spells the review period as every 180 days.

I have attached the screenshot.

Just so you know, the last time Nigeria was designated a CPC, it was by Trump and we stayed on that list till Biden came in and removed us. If similar trend is to play out, Nigeria may be on the list till another US government that is favourably disposed to us. The body language of our current govt shows it is not ready to work constructively with the US govt.

Lastly, some reports coming out (yet to be actually verified) are kind of scary. It seems people with valid visas are being turned back at the border. I am yet to verify any but if the reports are true then it does not bode well for students still in the country.

My advice will be for any student here to diversify their options. Pursue the US (they still have the best schools and largest scholarship pots) but also target Europe and Asia and even Africa. What matters is that one is progressing and not stuck waiting for politicians and diplomacy to ease things.

Efetobore1980:
■

I see. Kindly post the official link which state the June timeframe. If you cannot post the link , then you are just writing this out of your personal believe or hearsay.

Congrats!

Multiple feedback from my network indicates the same thing - all received Dec 31. E be like na general market season of exemption. May the good news continue.

mk3jax:
NVC has invited me for a visa interview in Feb 2026, despite the visa ban. Is any one in thesame situation?

Kemi is badass. Her questions are raising the issues confronting us daily - energy bills, hospital appointments, teachers, police, etc. What is Starmer's response - word salad.

I feel for Rachel Reeves because whether she likes it or not, she dey catch stray bullet for every PMQ. 400+ fewer teachers, 1200+ fewer police officers, 93k+ extra appointments lost to doctor's strike and over £185 average increase in energy bills. Add more taxes, higher job losses, faster business delinquencies and increased welfare spend and you start seeing Nigeria in Polaroid.

That Starmer is unable to even know the state of the different sectors in the UK is alarming. That the education secretary doesn't know what is publicly on the DfE's website is alarming. However when you watch Yes! Minister, you realise oh, this is the UK, nothing new.

I have to keep coming back! Starmer is a tout. There is no difference between him and MC Oluomo. What kind of "agbero" response is this? What kind of garage performance is this? A whole PM shouting out lies and untruths and unable to provide responses to questions. Is this how the UK will generate innovation? Is this how productivity will be generated and sustained? What nonsense is this now? Is it not enough that the immigration policies are quite death squads but to add this level of "agbadoism" and rubbish karaoke dance to a shambolic presentation as PM during the PMQs is nothing short of comic relief.

I know that what will kill UK households are only three things - energy bills, inflation and interest rates. "Ed Milipede" is clear on his plans to impoverish UK households. The "buffalo*" is building nuclear power plants and supporting all kinds of nonsense renewables in Scotland. UK has no transmission network to evacuate that power. UK still uses gas as its pricing base ensuring that renewables are more expensive. Nuclear is like 10-20 years away from coming online. All the expenses being made by energy companies across the grid will see energy prices rising by up to £500 in the next 12-24 months. In addition to this will be inflation driven by government. As the ONS and OBR has shown, inflation will add £41 billion every year to the tax base till 2030 (when you see your property price increasing in value, please discount inflation to know what's up) ensuring that fiscal drag keeps salary earners poorer. Lastly will be the dem*ns at the BoE whose job is to act like confused "ewure" and add the last straw to the camel's back to ensure total decimation. Those clowns will claim that higher interest rates will be crucial to combat rising and sudden inflation - always sudden as if inflation happens by magic.

Bottom line - higher energy bills (which if government intervenes like during Covid, then be rest assured we would pay it in form of higher inflation), higher interest rates meaning finance will get more expensive and higher inflation (government will print money like never before because that budget cannot be financed by tax receipts alone).

Interesting times but reminisce of 1984.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHR6usutswA

Do all you can to save your kids please

I might seem to sound very dismissing in this piece. Please I want you to know that I come in peace.

We have been forced to pause our seed raise to correct some fundamental flaws in our team and network. 2 months ago, we set out to raise a seed (in the $10-$20m range) to deploy across the UK (London/Slough), Amsterdam, Ireland and Virginia (US). Every relevant investor we have met has asked for one thing majorly – the need for us to have on our board and team folks with m7/T-10 degrees. In resolving this issue, we tinkered with the idea of getting folks from Stanford, UCB, or HBS but the cost was equity simply because of a badge. As much as I know that this is the game, I am building a network and team, and such approach simply puts power in the hands of “outsiders” driven by values different from ours. We initially secured the services of an advisor (also owner of a VC in London) from HBS but had to cancel the contract. The attitude of the guy didn’t bode well. It looked like he was doing us a favour.

I took a drastic decision to pause the raise and rather do a bridge while we take a more long-term approach. I have now had meetings with my core team and family members who work with us and set a very firm timeline for everyone. Those in the arts/humanities/law are to complete their pending studies (master’s and PhD) by next year and head out to either Harvard (preferred) or Oxford (worst case). Every other person in finance, tech, strategy is to head out to one of only 3 places - California (GSB or UCB), New York (NYU or Columbia) and Massachusetts (HBS or MIT). To effect this, the folks heading out to the US are to immediately put in their apps for EB1 or EB2 while the folks heading to the UK (from Europe) without GTVs are to have that in by next year. I am pleased to say the plan is working rather well. The first of 3 folks for the US have now secured their EB1/EB2 with two completing their GRE and GMAT with scores in the range for current intakes. The plan is to ensure that when applying for graduate admissions, everyone applies either as a permanent resident (in the US) or as ILR/GTV (in the UK).

What informed my decision was our inability to answer the question – Who and where are our peers? Our age range is between 25 – 40 with the younger folks (under 30) finishing undergrad studies (some had to leave Nigeria to start over) or doctorate studies. Our “white” peers are currently managers – c suite executives (in startups and scaleups, IBs, PE, or VC) who are taking decisions on capital allocation ($10m - $100m budgets). When we look within our current networks, we don’t have folks like these in actionable numbers. The best are associates in the junior range and unable to influence anything where they work. We don’t have folks who we can call and be guaranteed say a $5m cheque based on their own network. We don’t have folks our age and in our networks who have some powerful influence that can help us unlock value effortlessly at say potential clients’ end. We don’t have alumni networks that can be leveraged to scale or unlock value.

This is the new world. Access to opportunities (work or funding) is no more a factor of intelligence or brilliance but network. Being intelligent or brilliant is now a statistical outlier in the world. This is a very dangerous trend that will lock the majority of us and our kids out of opportunities. I was recently at the open day for one of the T-10 business schools in the US and I saw college students (undergrads) at the meeting being prepped on how to put in their application and scale the work experience criteria. I was the 2nd oldest in that room. There were veterans (National Guard and another branch of the military) with 10 years’ experience and yet me well under 40 was older than one of them! Seeing those young girls prepping for the 2026 admission cycle against 2027 admission was enough motivation for me.

We now live in a world where opportunities are being ring-fenced. People only want to associate with you if you have something in common. They want to relate with people like themselves who have similar ideologies and exposure. Universities are proving to be that commonality in most of these emerging networks. Mention some PE or VC or IB firms today and by default, 90% of their recruits will be from specific universities. What is crucial to note here is that Europe and the UK lack such impact or appeal simply because they failed to institutionalise entrepreneurship. A Stanford MBA student will see over 50 billionaires who head or are at C-suite levels from a16z to Nvidia to Palantir to Google to YC to just name it during their MBA. These folks will be there to deliver lectures and chair presentation sessions. Imagine the access this gives. You will be classmates with folks who have left top roles at all kinds of companies. Imagine the network. This is the new world. You will be supported by career centres who will literally be reaching out to alumni members on your behalf to book appointments. One funny story I heard recently was a guy who got a job attending the reunion of grads from his uni at a top firm. These alumni members had reached out to their school to send a few grad students with interest in working in that firm to attend their reunion. The guy left with a job and resumption date (before getting a contract). Over 60% of jobs secured by grads at one of the m7 unis were facilitated by the university.

This is the world where your kids are growing up to compete. The degrees they will have will be material if it is from the right school. You thus have a responsibility to understand how the world works and strategically position them for the future. The default location you should have for your kids is the US with T-10/T-15 universities as your target. If that is not possible, then worst cases should be Oxbridge. Any other uni outside Oxbridge in the UK or T-10/T-15 in the US for undergrad studies is a waste of time and resources. I have acquaintances who schooled in MIT, Stanford, UPenn, etc and I know how it has eased things for them. Please aim to equip your kids with the relevant ammunition they would need to conquer life. Start optimising for SAT/ACT and IELTS/TOEFL for those kids. Give them wings to fly.

I have just remembered something someone told me some years ago. His plan was to ensure his kid learnt software engineering. He was going to do all from extra lessons, to bootcamps, etc. I look back to our discussions and smile. His plan will only be fruitful if he optimises for that child to leave for the US for undergrad studies. Last night, I had a 3 way call for over 90 minutes after which we concluded that over 50 staff in one of our businesses will be laid off by end of Q1 next year. This is because of Antigravity and Huggingface. The CEO of one of our subsidiary businesses has successfully vibe coded an enterprise product for universities. It took him one month of prompting with Cursor and Antigravity (the last one week when Antigravity was released) and a fully functional product that will take 6-9 months of development involving over 20 people has been completed. This is the world we live in. Jobs are getting obsolete faster than ever. Our initial thinking of getting a separate team to build our trading platform will now be done by 2 very young folks using Antigravity, Huggingface and Ocaml to get the same performance as JS trading software. Think about that!

You know, I said something some time ago that any Nigerian Youth that failed to see themselves in the top 20 city in 24 months was going to be useless to humanity. I am afraid my assessment really underrepresented the outcome. By the end of next year, if they still are not in a top 20 city, they can almost forget being useful to the wider humanity. The rate of technology obsolescence is alarming. We are seeing competition for 1 staff startup with $1billion valuation and over $200m ARR just from vibe coding – that is the madness that is being pursued now by founders under 30. This is the world where your kids will want to live, thrive and build. They need to be able to navigate life with the knowledge and soundness and confidence that it requires.

When I said that parents who do not cross the million-dollar threshold in net worth will leave a legacy of poverty for their kids, this was the basis. How do you fund the studies of these kids in these top schools and provide them the support they need? Can you fund your kid with $250k for them to just test out an AI startup idea in your garage with their partner while coughing out similar amount for undergrad studies (if waivers and scholarships don’t cut it down significantly)?

I will conclude by pleading that as we navigate this chaos of immigration, we do not forget these kids. If Nigeria has any chance of survival in the future, it will depend on your kids. The wings you give them to fly will help them break into relevant networks and ensure that tomorrow they can influence decisions at the tables that matter in alleviating the living conditions back in Nigeria. So please if you are qualified for that EB1/EB2/EB3 or GTV or PR route in Canada or NIV or PR route in Australia, please take it. These kids need to be preserved AT ALL COST. They are the future. I was proud speaking to my colleague’s younger brother who is one of our youngest researchers joining us officially next year. His breadth of AI and prompt engineering and understanding of the interoperability of systems and selection/benchmarking of AI models is top notch. Last night took me back to my PhD days of Bohachevsky 1 and 2, Schaffer, Beale, Booth and Matyas. Talking with him assured me that our future is bright.

Let Us Encourage Ambition
The power of environment
The difference between constrained ambition and soaring dreams often comes down to one thing: what we see as normal. When children grow up in environments where success is discussed casually, where achievement is celebrated rather than whispered about, where adults treat young people's aspirations with seriousness and respect, something shifts in their understanding of what is possible.

This is not about wealth or privilege alone. It is about mindset. It is about parents who involve their children in family decisions, who explain financial realities while simultaneously expanding horizons. It is about treating a teenager's concerns with the same gravity you would an adult's, taking the time to listen, to discuss, to reason together rather than simply decree.

When we raise children to argue their causes, to take contrarian positions, to see themselves as stakeholders rather than dependents, we are building something far more valuable than obedience. We are building minds capable of independent thought, of challenging the status quo, of imagining futures different from their present.

Success as the baseline
In communities where ambition thrives, success stories are not rare miracles to be marvelled at from a distance. They are the baseline. Conversations naturally drift toward academic achievements, scholarship opportunities, career advancements, international experiences. Not because people are showing off, but because these are simply the topics of life.

When a child hears consistently about GMAT, GRE and A level scores and university admissions and scholarships, about jobs at multinationals, about overseas training and professional development, something powerful happens. These possibilities lodge themselves in the imagination not as distant fantasies but as achievable realities. The young person begins to see a clear path from where they are to where they could be.

This is why representation matters. This is why visibility matters. When seniors return with stories of successes, they are not just sharing personal victories. They are expanding the realm of the possible for everyone listening. They are providing a blueprint, a proof of concept that says: this can be done, and people like us are doing it.

The stories that shape us
From Bishop Oyedepo comes a profound truth for me: a future I cannot picture, I cannot feature in it. Our children, our young people, our peers cannot aspire to what they cannot imagine. And imagination requires fuel. It requires stories, examples, proof that the thing can be done.

Think about the power of a single conversation. A young person struggling academically, told by one voice that excellence is impossible, that the system is rigged, that they should lower their expectations and settle. Then another voice, one that has walked the path, that looks at the same student and sees untapped potential. That voice says: you have what it takes. The results show it. If you decide to be serious, you will succeed. But more importantly: if you do not try, you will carry that regret forever. Which voice wins often determines the trajectory of a life.

This is not motivational fluff. This is practical reality. The human mind responds to expectation. We rise or fall to meet the beliefs held about us by people we respect. When surrounded by pessimism, we internalize limits. When surrounded by high expectations coupled with genuine support, we often surprise even ourselves.

Why these conversations matter
This brings us to the heart of the matter. When members of our community share their successes, when they talk openly about building wealth, navigating careers, achieving recognition in their fields, the default response should be celebration and curiosity, not suspicion and tone policing.

Yes, critique the methods. Challenge the approaches. Engage with the substance. But do not shut down the conversation because someone sounds "too confident" or "not humble enough." The problem is not that successful people are sharing their stories. The problem is that we have become so accustomed to lack, to limitation, to making ourselves small, that confidence feels like arrogance and ambition feels like pride.

We are already drowning in dark news and discouraging reports. We already have enough experiences telling us what we cannot do, where we do not belong, why we should lower our expectations. What we desperately need are counternarratives. We need to hear that doctors can build wealth. That academics can achieve international recognition. That young people from average backgrounds can end up in rooms that matter, can challenge established norms, can earn respect in their fields.

These stories awaken something. They provide permission to dream bigger. They offer tactical knowledge about paths that exist. They remind us that the people achieving these things are not superhuman, they are simply humans who were encouraged to aim high and told, repeatedly, that they belonged in those spaces.

How communities actually grow
Strong communities are not built on everyone whispering their achievements with ten disclaimers attached. They are built on honest exchange, on robust debate, on people being willing to put their ideas and experiences out there, even when those ideas will be challenged. Some of the most valuable relationships and insights come from disagreement. From heated debates taken offline and continued. From clashing perspectives that force both parties to sharpen their thinking. From being willing to engage with people whose approach differs from yours but whose intentions are sound.

When we prioritize tone over substance, when we police how people share rather than engaging with what they share, we impoverish the entire community. We lose the wealth of experience, the diversity of approaches, the rich tapestry of different paths to success. The goal is not uniformity. It is not everyone speaking in the same carefully modulated voice, sharing successes with identical levels of self-deprecation. The goal is genuine exchange. It is people feeling safe to be honest about their wins and their methods so that others can learn, adapt, and find their own paths.

What our next generation deserves
Our young people are watching. They are listening. They are reading. They are forming their sense of what is possible based on the stories that surround them. When we celebrate achievement, when we share knowledge freely, when we engage in substantive debate without personal attacks, we are modelling something crucial.

We are showing them that success is not a finite resource that must be hoarded. That knowledge shared is not power diminished, but community strengthened. That disagreement does not require disrespect. That confidence in one's abilities is not the same as contempt for others. They need to grow up in environments where reading about successful people in their fields is normal. Where parents and mentors point out examples and say: look what is possible. Where the narrative is not about all the obstacles (though obstacles exist) but about all the pathways, all the opportunities, all the ways that determination plus strategy plus support can lead to remarkable outcomes.

This is not about creating entitled children who expect success without effort. It is about creating ambitious children who believe effort will be rewarded, who see obstacles as challenges to overcome rather than excuses to quit, who understand that they belong in spaces of excellence.

A not so final word on intentions
The caveat to all of this is intention. If we approach these conversations looking for faults, eager to tear down rather than build up, determined to find reasons to dismiss rather than engage, we poison the well for everyone. Life, in many ways, is dumb luck. One piece of information here, one connection there, one insight at the right moment, and suddenly you have an edge. Being open minded, being willing to learn from anyone, being curious rather than judgmental, these postures allow us to capture those moments of luck when they come.

The mind truly is the standard of the person. What we allow into our minds, what stories we tell ourselves and each other about what is possible, these shape everything else. We can choose to fill our mental space with limitations and excuses, or we can choose to fill it with examples and strategies and encouragement. Let us choose to encourage ambition. Not recklessness, not entitlement, but genuine, well supported, strategically pursued ambition. Our communities will be richer for it. Our young people will be empowered by it. And we ourselves will benefit from the rising tide that lifts all boats. I will leave us with this famous quote by Isaac Watts: "If I could reach from pole to pole or grasp the ocean with a span, I would be measured by the soul; The mind's the standard of the Man."

Final word, Live and Let Live
Life is a journey, and we are all doing our bit, navigating the many mines and trying to make sense of it. Our approach should be to catch cruise and move on. Today we are here, tomorrow no more. What matters is that we make the best of the short time we have – make valuable memories. I see Nairaland as a place to catch cruise occasionally while documenting the temporal state of mind. I hold no grudges. Life’s fleeting nature means I prefer to optimise for things that can ease my journey here on earth. I trust we can be less “touchy” going forward and just live and let live.

When you were young
And your heart was an open book
You used to say, "Live and let live"
(You know you did
You know you did
You know you did)
But if this ever-changing world in which we're livin'
Makes you give in and cry

Say live and let live
(Live and let live)
Live and let live
(Live and let live)

The economy is actually worse. Please see chart below. Without inflation, tax receipts were actually worse than before. This is why despite the increase in tax receipts, most people are considerably poorer (via fiscal drag). When you add job losses, business closures, and productivity numbers, it is a whole lot worse.

£41 billion pounds in tax receipts for each of the last 2 fiscal years has been solely from fiscal drag. Remove that and the receipts are down.

It is painful and hurtful because of what it has done to business and investments.

Zahra29:
And the plot thickens as they're now being accused of misleading Cabinet and the public by claiming there was a £20bn black hole, when it has been revealed that the truth was that there was actually a surplus! - something to be celebrated, but instead they continued with the black hole narrative to raise income tax and other taxes further in order to boost their fiscal headroom and spend money on lifting the 2 child benefit cap.

A noble cause perhaps, but they probably should just have been honest and explained why they couldn't give tax cuts despite the surplus. The consequence is that trust has been further eroded and their doom and gloom rhetoric in the budget run-up has inflicted a lot of damage on market confidence.

Well at least the good news is that the UK is not (as) broke as we feared 😂

The calculation has changed: what the new settlement timeline really means for Nigerian families

Something fundamental has shifted, and I am not sure we are all sitting with what it means yet.

When many of us arrived during the Boris wave - professionals in our 40s with young children and careers we had built over decades - the trade-off seemed straightforward. Six years. That was the number. Six years of driving Ubers, stacking shelves, working care homes despite our degrees and experience. Six years, then settlement, then we could breathe again. The passport would open doors. The children would be established in good schools. By our late 40s or early 50s, we would have options. We could return home with British citizenship as backup, restart our careers here with legal certainty, or leverage what we had built in Nigeria with the mobility a UK passport provides.

Six years felt manageable. A difficult chapter, yes, but one with a clear end date.

Now it is 10 to 15 years for most of us.

And that is not just a longer wait. It is a different life entirely.

What we are actually trading
Let us be honest about what 10 to 15 years means. It means reaching settlement in your late 50s or early 60s. It means your prime working years - the decades when you should be at your peak earning potential, building something, leading, creating - spent in survival mode. It means watching your expertise become dated, your professional networks back home dissolve, your confidence erode.

It means your children will grow up watching you diminished. They will go through their crucial teenage years, year when they are forming their understanding of work, ambition, what their parents are capable of, seeing you overqualified and underemployed. They will not remember the person you were back home. They will just know this version.

I am not saying this to depress anyone. I am saying it because we need to look clearly at what we have signed up for, especially now that the terms have changed.

The questions we should be asking
Here is what I think each family needs to sit down and honestly discuss:

At my age now, with everything I know about how careers work, how age discrimination functions, how rusty skills become, do I genuinely believe I can restart my professional life at 58? At 62?
Not in theory. Not in a motivational speech. In reality.

Am I at peace with the idea that my professional story essentially ends here? That these survival jobs might be my peak from now on?
Because if the honest answer is "I am not willing to accept that", if there is still ambition there, still a desire to build something, still a version of yourself you want to become, then 15 years might be too long. It might cost you something you cannot get back.

Is my child's British future genuinely worth my professional death?
That sounds dramatic, but I mean it seriously. We are betting everything on our children thriving in a system that is actively becoming more hostile to immigrants, more expensive, more competitive. We are assuming they will have access to networks, opportunities, wealth-building tools. We are assuming Britain in 2040 will still be the country we imagined when we left Nigeria.

What if we are wrong?

What I am worried about
I see the early warning signs already. Parents in their late 40s who are exhausted in ways that sleep will not fix. Marriages straining under financial pressure and wounded pride. Teenagers who are embarrassed by their parents' accents, their jobs, their lack of understanding of British cultural codes.

In 10 years, many of these parents will be in their late 50s, still waiting for settlement, watching their children prepare for university while they are still doing agency work. The cognitive dissonance of that, the gap between who you were supposed to be and who you have become does something to people.

I worry about the mental health crisis that is coming. The depression that settles in when you realize the sacrifice did not pay off the way you thought it would. The strokes and heart attacks that come from years of suppressed frustration. The bitterness that seeps into every family dinner.

And I worry about the kids. The ones who will be 25 in 15 years, looking back at parents who gave up everything for them, feeling a guilt and resentment, they cannot quite articulate. The ones who will wonder why their parents stayed when things clearly were not working. The ones who will be emotionally distant because they learned early to protect themselves from their parents' pain.

What this is not
This is not me saying everyone should leave. Some families are exactly where they need to be. Some had nothing to return to in Nigeria, no safety, no opportunities, no viable alternative. Some have children thriving here in ways that would have been impossible back home. Some parents genuinely are content with the trade-off, even at 15 years.

This also is not me pretending Nigeria is some paradise we are all missing out on. We all know why we left.

What this is
This is me saying: the deal has changed. You did not sign up for 15 years. And it is okay to reassess.

It is okay to admit that what made sense at 6 years does not make sense at 15. It is okay to say "I thought I could do this, but I cannot." It is okay to change course.

What is not okay is sleepwalking through the next decade, pretending everything is fine, telling yourself it will all work out, while the resentment builds and the years slip away and your relationship with your family slowly corrodes.

Sit down with your spouse. Look at your actual situation, not the one you hoped for, the one you have. Look at your children, really look at them. Are they flourishing or just surviving? Look at yourself. Are you still you, or have you become someone you do not recognize?

And then decide. Properly decide. Not just keep going because you have already invested so much. Not just because going back feels like failure. Not just because you do not know what else to do.

Decide because you have looked clearly at the next 10 years and you know - really know - that this is the right path for your family.

Because whatever you choose, your children will live with the consequences. And so will you.

I choose vawulence and pettiness only for today.

You really are hurting.

Goodenoch:
You are saying something entirely different from what the discussion was. I’m not interested in debating that but I must admit that your opinion of your individual status and those of people you engage with regularly as riff raffs may be entirely justified. You know yourself best, after all.

However it might be useful to try to engage (or at least scout via social media) people outside your circle and you’ll find that Nigerians are quite accomplished and well represented in many fields, despite numerous challenges.

That time is what we cannot estimate. America and Trump still have a long way to go. Trump (3 years) and the US (many more decades). That is enough time to cause chaos multiple times over. Imagine Trump repeating what he did in 2025 in 2026, 2027 and 2028, Nigeria may not exist again.

The US is the anchor for the current global financial system. If it collapses today, Europe collapses. This is why Europe won't allow it. They are virtually bankrupt and insolvent but America keeps it working.

FACTA is IT which must not be toyed with.

RodgersAkpafu:
Well, its only a matter of time before his country even get fed up with him and "cages" him as a lame duck

I still believe the rest of the western world wont descend to this level

There is a reason why most European countries debanked Americans in the first place
The headache of FATCA et al became too much

Sophisticated crimes. Thanks for the correction, you nailed it.

RodgersAkpafu:
im gonna respond to this paragraph by paragraph later in the day

BUT before then

Lemme just state that I DISAGREE with the part where you said "they commit worse crimes"

Esp for Japanese

Two things
1. There is no culture of celebrating crimes and criminal behaviour in their own society

AND

2. Whoever gets caught will get dealt with
Where we come from, criminals are put on a pedestal
Heck, our country is even being ran by a criminal

every society has criminals
it is the values of the society and how they treat them that makes the difference

or maybe what you meant is that their own criminals commit more "sophisticated" crimes

When you look at the dollar bill ($1), there is only a portrait of George Washington. When you take the 50 Naira note, there are four musketeers on it. The four heads there unfortunately do not add any value to the note. $1 = 30x the 50 NGN note.

That is how we are valued in the world today. The problem we have as Nigerians is that we use outlier stats to create arguments that don't hold true under proper scrutiny.

A good screening I can relate to is Australia's immigration system and formerly Canada's. Peers of equivalent standing as myself bar high salary and leading nationally funded projects have applied for their EOIs under the Australia NIV and are still waiting for an invite. These are folks who feature regularly in the top 2% of global researchers worldwide by citation count. I have been invited now twice. Of the 3 reasons stated in my invitation, two are absent from my Nigerian peers. They have the PhDs, citations and supervisions but Australia does not consider them sufficient enough to warrant an invite. On Reddit, I have seen someone with just a MSc and 11 patents get an invite in 2 weeks. Imagine the calibre of folks that will be onboarded into such country. Now ask yourself how many Nigerians will get such privilege. I can assure you that the selection will mostly been Americans and Asians (Chinese, Japanese, South Koreans, etc.).

Go to any m7 university and find out how many Nigerians make a cohort? On a per capita basis, compare with the Asians and again you see that we are irrelevant. Mention the field of research and I bet you any Nigerian you see at all is a statistical outlier.

I am afraid to say we are not really net positive contributors to humanity. You mention education? Do you want to compare the education in Nigeria with what you get in an m7 university? Have you seen any Nigerian university ever in the top 500 of university rankings? ASUU is on indefinite strike, have you heard about that in Europe or America or China or Singapore? Nobel laureate (don't even say it)? Field Marshall? Turing?

No one is twerking for attention to the whites. I can never change how they think about me - it is their culture gotten from the Greeks (Britainnia is a break out of the old Roman empire (that defeated Greece and imbibed its philosophy) along with Franco, and the others). However, humanity and even the same racists respect value. That is why when we apply for things and are exceptional we get it.

The *riff raff* tag is unfortunately apt. It describes sufficiently the kind of people who live in a "now disgraced country".

Goodenoch:
I saw this since when you posted it but I have found it difficult to formulate a response because I am genuinely struggling to understand how you felt comfortable saying all this.

People that entered via care route from Nigeria and non professionals who had a BSC sha and ‘ran masters package’? So…in other words healthcare workers and graduates who decided to emigrate to pursue economic opportunities just like you did but perhaps didn’t have the qualifications/opportunities you did?

You didn’t even think that by virtue of being graduates they have already attained higher qualifications than the majority of adults in this same UK?

And those are the people that you categorize as riff raffs because you happen to work at a university?

Their ring light behavior? What does that even mean? Is the percentage of immigrants who make videos up to 1% or even 0.1%? Even 0.00001%? How many Nigerians are on NIUK and what proportion do those that agreed about driver’s license form, from among the entirety of the Nigerian immigrant community? As a university worker you felt that was a representative enough sample size? Lol.

And how exactly do they act? Like stuck up pretenders who think they’re better than everyone else just because they managed to get a ‘professional’ job and so feel confident enough to denigrate the ‘average Nigerian’ at every turn? What does average Nigerian even mean

Lol . Man if you introspect a little bit more you’ll realize you’re not as far off from what you think an average Nigerian is as you might think, and I assure you that for all your pretensions the people you’re twerking for to show you’re ’not like the others’ see nothing but an average Nigerian when they look at you.

I read this and laughed really hard. It's going midnight and I dont want to constitute a nuisance. The laugh is good for the heart. I also could literally touch your pain. Slow your roll - the matter of Nigeria can make one go mad. I have learnt that having a merry heart before reviewing such helps.

Whenever discussions like this arise, I always ask people to find out why no one ever talks like this about the Chinese and Singaporeans and South Koreans and Japanese, etc. Trump is the one now shouting that the US needs the 600k Chinese students and thousands of South Korean workers to help the US in "re-industrialising".

It isn't that these countries or their citizens commit no crime (they commit the highest and worse kinds), it is just that their usefulness to society far outweighs their ills. I wonder why you rarely and almost never see any of these folks working in care jobs or riding uber or working shifts in warehouses etc. They have set a low for themselves.

I have come to conclude that for most Nigerians, our worldview about life is very limited. I say this with all sense of humility. We are so impressed with little things. Our attempt at sophistication exposes how shallow we are as any exposed person can easily see the inferiority complex we suffer from.

From lack of comprehension, to absence of adventurism to absence of empathy (they will point out Aunty Esther, my God!) to lack of critical thinking, etc., these all play a role in our inability to translate our brilliance (we understand basic concepts like reading and writing) to intelligence and sophistication. I posit that our culture and religion have mostly facilitated this. Culturally, we have been stripped of self esteem as a people with religion completing the brainwashing by disabling our ability to think critically.

I do not pontificate that man cannot have his or her lows. No. Usually enlightenment helps to create a boost. However, when we deliberately and intentionally decide to live low, think low, and act low, we not only eliminate our ability to build sophistication but also set low bars for our offsprings to aspire to. We thus set ourselves and offsprings to play under a bar ensuring we keep the rat race running.

If anyone is aghast that we are using words such as *riff raffs* to describe ourselves, then it will be helpful if you can tell me the kind of people that live in a "now disgraced country". When Trump said that he was permanently pausing migration from 3rd world countries, I can assure you that folks from South Korea and Singapore and Japan and China were not looking for a list to find out if their countries are 3rd world.

RodgersAkpafu:
What i said is the undiluted truth

And if you feel some kind of way about it
Maybe you should take your advise and do some self introspection yourself

Do you know how many Nigerians and Indians/Pakistani I KNOW that have been caught with fake MOTs and even driving without regularisation of license after the one year lapsed

Should we talk about the yama yama practice of outsourcing assignments back and claiming they were the ones that did it? Should we talk about the disorderly behaviour at bus stops, the lack of basic civic sense

When I was still a student hustling
I used to do security gigs
I hear and see now that there are "special centres to arrange SIA training without the rigour of actually doing the training

Do you know how bad it got to the level that a huge northern agency only take their staff from a designated training centre (i found out about it recently)
It wasnt like this before (even though I am scared for them cos they may be sued sha, but if they have their alibi, they will be fine)
I can go on and on

All these behaviours are behaviours NOT FIT for purpose in a developed country, and many of you (yes you) are engaged in it, ruining our collective reputation

Riff raffs and touts
That's what many of our country men are here, carrying their zig zag ways here
You say professionals in Nigeria?
Abeg I no wan laugh

MOST of the actual professionals who saw the ship about to sink did express entry and went to Canada and Australia

This is not to say we didn't have waves of professionals come in from the UK (especially thr doctors nurses, teachers and all)

But the vast majority of Boriswave no be am, and I say it categorically even though it is making me appear classist

You are even talking bout "bringing money into the country"
How many of them actually paid their fees completely from Nigeria?
Or even had the funds they "claimed to have" in their statement of account?
Before the half fees came into effect
Initial deposit was 2k (N1.2m ish) and they "POFed" the rest
I am not mocking anybody, but thats the truth since you wanted to bring that up

That was why many of them were running helter skelter, working like maloo when they should have been in school to pay up the balance
Again, not mocking anyone, but we know the truth

This clown even talking smack about "they having higher qualifications than most British people" 🤡

So said someone who comes from a country where less than 8% have post secondary educational qualifications (i no wan laugh abeg)

If them sound, why are they outsourcing assignments?
Why are they saying MSc < Driver License
There is what we call anecdotal observations:
If you were on that NIUK thread that day and observed the following

1. Everyone there who agreed had a Masters, AND
2. Agreed that MSc < Driver License
3. Actually met Nigerians who think like that in real life,

What will you conclude ?


Only a bomboclaaaatt will even conceive such crap

Abeg there is a lot to say
Lemme just pin here before I say more than I suppose to

They will and unfortunately get away with it and force other countries to play ball. Think of the many things America has done and gotten away with - the world creates alot of allowance for powerful entities and persons. The US got their sidekick, the UK to join them on the Iraqi "conquest" making up false intelligence and despite up to 1 million people killed in that senseless war, no one said anything.

Recently, Trump started WWIII with tariffs after his midnight communion. Wiped off over $10trillion from the global equity market and no one said anything.

I believe this is the foundation to what is planned long term which is absurd considering the abundance of policies that already exist to check fraud. If people are being deported, why do you need to seize their assets?

With this, America will weaponise the euro dollar system (dollar system) and force compliance from other countries in Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK as regards overseas remittance by illegals.

What is funny is that residents in the US who are still stuffed with thanksgiving turkey will wholehearted support this policy because the narrow thinking of many is on deportation and remigration. Unfortunately, this policy will usher in more draconian surveillance systems for legal residents.

We live in interesting times.

Re think thanks, I am not familiar with the Heritage Foundation. I am mostly familiar with Brookings, Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, and Royal United Services Institute.

RodgersAkpafu:
America DARES NOT
Its credibility is hanging on a thin line

Once they tip it over, there is NO coming back from it
They should ask the Germans how that went for them.

Looking at the American state shipwreck has been a very very painful sight to behold

Now they are trying to drag the Europeans, Australians, Canadians into it

BTW you know about Heritage Foundation?
This is basically their playbook and vision for the world

This is how wealth confiscation starts.