Businesses, Technologies and Careers on the Verge of Extinction

By Don Okereke

In the precursor to this Piece, I wrote on ‘’Scientific, Technological Innovations and Business Opportunities to Watch Out For’’. Herein we are going to explore ‘Businesses, Technologies and Careers on the Verge of Extinction’’.

Thousands of years ago, we were told Dinosaurs roamed the earth but went into extinction because they could not among other factors, adapt to climactic and environmental dynamics. So it will be for many businesses, technologies and careers that may still be flourishing now.

Advances in Science and Technology no doubt make life easier. However there is a downside to such innovations that may lead to corporations downsizing and drive businesses and some careers into extinction. Mental and automated work is fast displacing physical labor.

As I said earlier, there are downsides to scientific and technological innovations. For instance, Cloud and Quantum Computing may be good news to some people (especially end users). It will be bad news for say, Computer engineers because their patronage will dwindle because of less work for them to do. Instead of buying 200 separate system unit’s (PC’s), Software’s etc, an organization buys just one and uses ‘’Thin Clients’’ to share resources across the network. This will mean less System Units to be maintained or serviced. It is also bad news for Computer/Software manufacturers/vendors because their sales will go southwards. No wonder some of these vendors are covertly and wittingly delaying the advent of some of these innovations since it will herald their demise.

In Nigeria, the unavailability of electricity supply has drastically made manufacturing expensive leading to many manufacturing firms relocating to neighboring African countries where electricity supply is guaranteed.

Some of the businesses, technologies and careers analyzed herein may be thriving now but will fizzle out or be less competitive because of the advent of better or alternative technologies/ideas. Many of the businesses nearing extinction may still stretch their life span or survive if they can be innovative, competitive or relocate closer to where their services will be appreciated. As in many areas of life, one must choose between short-term gratification and long-term success. The future belongs to those who are futuristic (forward-thinking).

Let’s start on a national context. As we write, there are jitters in Aso Rock because United States Oil imports from Nigeria dropped swiftly from 810,000 barrels in the previous year to 361,000 barrels in July 2012. Analysts attribute this decline to inter alia, the discovery of Shale Oil and Gas in the United States. For the first time, United States has given Oil exporting licenses to two Oil giants- Shell and Vitol to enable them export Oil from the United States. It is possible that in the near future, the United States of America can even start exporting Oil and Gas to Nigeria. With the advent of Shale Oil and Gas, electric cars and other alternative clean energy technologies, global dependence on Crude oil will plummet. The earlier we diversify our national revenue income stream the better for us as a Nation otherwise time will come when we shall start drinking our crude oil for lack of who to sell it to. Perhaps this explains why the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging Nigeria to save Oil money. The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is a step in the right direction.

From Napkin to Pampas; yahoo mail/messenger to facebook; Desktop computers to Laptops and now to Tablet PC”s; diesel/petrol-powered automobiles to battery/electric-powered automobiles; Turn-table record players to Home cinemas; from black and white TV sets to LCD/Plasma TV sets etc; the possibilities of technology and human ingenuity is endless.

Several years ago, Sony Walkman was the in-thing. It metamorphosed from Sony Portable Cassette player to Sony CD Walkman. Now we have iPods, iPads, mp3 players etc. Even an average mobile phone that is memory-card enabled can accommodate hundreds of songs/videos. Sony Corporations would have been completely out of business by now if they stuck to the past. The same way VHS drove BETAMAX into extinction.
While other Camera manufacturers quickly embraced digital technology, it took Kodak time to do away with film technology. Kodak is still paying the price as they can no longer hold sway in their forte.

Nokia, arguably the most popular mobile phone manufacturers is also struggling and increasingly losing its global market share no thanks to fierce competition from other companies with more innovative and cheaper mobile phones. The Finnish phone company has gone from pillar to post trying to shore up its finances with speculations it wanted to sell its headquarters. For a while, Nokia resisted rolling out dual-SIM phones. Thanks to Chinese manufacturers, dual, triple and even quad-SIM phones are commonplace now. Their mobile phones even have analog and digital TV tuners or receivers. Above all, the prices of these China phones are 50-60% less than their Nokia equivalents.

Buoyed by advances in the fields of nano and computing technologies, gadgets (electronics generally) are skewed towards miniaturization coupled with multi-faceted capabilities. These days, the more compact, faster and more functions a gadget comes with, the better. Apart from making/receiving calls or sending text messages, some mobile phones serve as voice recorders, video recorder, camera, music player, memory storage device, radio/TV receiver etc.

American car manufacturers-General motors, Ford etc with their big Petrol/gas guzzling cars cannot compete with their Japanese counterparts-Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan etc that produce more petrol efficient cars.

Sequel to meticulous observations, research and avid study of global trends, apart from the aforementioned, here is a roll-call of businesses, technologies and careers approaching annihilation globally and particularly in Nigeria.

1. Petrol stations popularly called ‘’Filling stations’’ in Nigeria will not always be a money spinning business as it currently is. There has been a penchant for Petrol Stations springing up even inside residential homes. One wonders how they get approvals from the relevant government agencies. Apart from the advent of battery/electric powered cars, by the time electricity supply becomes stable and reliable in Nigeria, individuals and businesses will rely less on Petrol/diesel to power their houses/offices. You will concur with me that there are more generators than cars in Nigeria. Some homes/organizations have 2-3 generators. By the time this chunk of petrol/diesel users are eliminated from the equation, a whole lot of Petrol stations, especially those not strategically located, will struggle if not close shop.

2. GSM Operators will increasingly compete for customer loyalty and patronage. It is already happening with endless promos here and there just to attract or retain their customers.
GSM providers must be forward-thinking or risk been comatose. Imagine this scenario: you have internet subscription and Skype or yahoo messenger on your phone and I have on mine. We can use these free tools to call our selves free of charge so long as we pay for our internet subscription which may not be much compared to paying for calls per second, minute or hour. I think a GSM operator in the United Kingdom- ‘’3 Network’’ is offering such a service.
With number portability subscribers will be able to switch from one operator to the other with ease without been tied down to a particular GSM provider.
To remain in business in the future, these GSM operators may have to become Internet Service Providers (ISP’s) or Cloud Computing/Software Providers or Vendors.

3. Sales and servicing of generators: We don’t need a soothsayer to tell us that this business is on the verge of extinction. Availability of steady power supply in Nigeria will herald this. I once asked a young man what he wanted to do with his life and he opined to me that he wishes to learn how to repair/service generators. I promptly explained to him the implications of his choice before he starts blaming witches and idols of his father’s house for destroying his business.

Rather than brace up to realities, many Africans/Nigerians, inadvertently blame and arrogate so much credit and power to devil and witches even for their self-inflicted misfortunes. A business goes down; we blame witches and idols of our father’s house. A man dies at the age of 80, his enemies are responsible. If late Steve Jobs, founder of Apple Computer’s were to be a Nigerian, accusing fingers may have been pointed towards his real and phantom enemies. No doubt there are witches and supernatural powers out there.

4. Small Transport Company’s and motor cycle operators popularly called ‘’Okada’’ will not be around for ever. As I write, Okada operators, molue’s etc are constantly hounded and exploited. The extinction of Okada as a mode of transportation will also have a multiplier-effect on motor-cycle mechanics and sales of motor cycle parts.

In most advanced countries, apart from Taxi operators, you will find just a couple transport consortiums operating in a geographical area. In England for instance, West Midlands Transport and one or two other Transport companies caters for the entire West Midlands. Same goes for other regions.
With the passage of time and government support, BRT buses will drive most Danfo’s, Molue’s etc out of business.
All the touts camouflaging as members of the NURTW, Okada operators and Danfo drivers should begin to look for alternative careers.

5. Media organizations-Print and electronic media must be competitive, innovative to survive as their revenues increasingly plunge. So many established newspaper houses in America, Europe and the rest of the world have closed shops. Nigeria is not and will not be an exception. 234next, a promising Nigerian newspaper closed shop due to dwindling revenue. It is an open secret that most electronic and print media organizations in Nigeria depend on government patronage-advertorials etc to survive. This explains why many of these media organizations seldom report and downplay negative news about the government.
Another factor that is driving many media organizations out of business is the plethora of free news resources on the internet.

6. Bookshop and publishing businesses must innovate or be moribund. With profound digital/electronic information out there on the internet, who cares about hard copies of text books? Google books, Kindle etc are re-engineering the status quo. A news report indicated that California gave out tablet PC’s containing electronic copies of all the text books the students could have bought. This is the trend. It is even cheaper and more environmentally friendly than buying the hard copies.

7. TV subscription business will not be the best of business in the near future. DSTV, StarTimes and the rest must be very creative to remain in business. These days, viewers can watch so many digital TV stations like CNN, BBC, and Aljazeera with a FreeView Digital TV receiver or on the internet. There are websites that stream live Premier Football league matches. A lot of television sets these days have Picture-in-Picture and built-in internet capabilities making it easy to watch telecasts directly on a television set.

The growth potential of technologically anachronistic Cable Television is been hampered by fibre optic and broadband technology. Gone are the days millions of dollars/naira is spent on broadcast equipments. With a phone that has radio transmitter, video/audio recorder and a webcam etc, one can transmit and stream TV or radio broadcasts.

8. Cyber/Internet Café business is and will continue to dwindle in Nigeria. Many of the Cafes that are not strategically located are closing shops in geometric proportions. Gone are the days when you will see the first and second floors of Storey building being converted to a Cyber café. The free data plans and promos bandied by GSM Providers are not helping this line of business. Why go to a Cyber Café when you can browse on your phone even while on the go.

9. Road-side Chemists or Drug stores: In Nigeria, just about anybody can sell drugs. All you need is rent a store, go to Idumota and buy your drugs and you are game. This contrasts with what obtains in most civilized climes where sale of drugs and chemicals are restricted and a doctor’s prescription is needed before one can buy drugs. Even in Ghana, I was told you cannot just waltz into a drugstore and buy drugs without prescription. This anomaly will not continue for ever in Nigeria. Quacks that are running such road-side ‘’chemist’’ shops have to be forward-thinking because a determined will put an end to such practices.

10. Road-side retail shops in Nigeria must be creative, be strategically located or risk been driven out of business. The era of big supermarket chains is here again. Shoprite, Wal-Mart etc are making in-roads into Nigeria. These are one-stop shops where one can buy just about any commodity under one roof.

Devoid of strict housing plans by the appropriate government agency, it would appear that many landlords and landladies in Nigeria are competing to attach shops in front of their houses. A typical street in Nigeria boasts of houses with one or two shops in front of it. One striking thing is that many of these shops sell almost the same thing or render the same service. It is not unusual to see 10-15 shops or more selling say, frozen food or 10-15 tailors (a.k.a fashion designers) in a particular street.

Some of these businesses are operated by house wives who just want to be seen as doing something not necessarily because they make returns from there.
So apart from the big supermarket chains coming on board, the streets are already saturated with a plethora of small retail shops selling the same thing and offering the same service.

11. Commercial Photography and Video Coverage business/profession is on its last legs. With Digital cameras and mobile phones that can produce stunning pictures, who cares about calling the so-called Professional photographers. There are also portable Pictures Printers out there to print out pictures from Digital Cameras and mobile phones. Once upon a time in my village, there was this renowned photographer called ‘’Odems’’. Now this guy is out of business. Don’t ask me if it is Witches or advent of technology that drove him out of business.
The same fate beckons Video Coverage Professionals. Now people can video their occasions/events using their Smart Phones, Tablet PC’s, and Portable Camcorders crammed with 5 or more Megapixels and High Definition (HD) capability.

12. Finally, on a hilarious note. How many people have noticed that native doctors, babalawo’s and voodoo practitioners’ are increasingly losing their clients to churches and pastors? In addition to prophesying, delivering people from demon-possession, doing signs and wonders, some Pastor’s are now foraying into medicine/nursing. Even those that are not trained medical doctors or Midwives now take delivery of new born babies.
Our native doctors must embrace technology or be driven out of business. They need to rebrand, advertise their service/products. They need to do away with all the unnecessary gobbledygook like asking for hen, alligator pepper, etc.

In most Western countries, a Witch will be proud to tell you s/he is a Witch or a Clairvoyant. Not in Nigeria, they have penetrated churches.
In the West too, you don’t have to leave the comfort of your house to consult a Seer or Clairvoyant, just tune in to a radio or TV Station, call the premium number given and viola, you are connected.


Don Okereke
donnuait@yahoo.com