anybody who finds this surprising is an idiiot

caesaraba: Who cares? What's the point of being able to finance a budget and not implementing it?

Pointiest point!!!

Hw does dis concern us. Do dey implement previous? So it doesnt affect us in any way

Prof Corruption: I laughed really hard.

The easiest solution is the government should borrow money and use IBB generation as collateral.

One of the factors that encouraged my failed attempt at studying Medicine at the University is my passionate dislike for mathematics. I literarily can’t stand numbers and the magic that comes with mathematical procedures. But President Goodluck Jonathan in his infinite capacity for the miraculous sent me back to school for extra classes in Basic Arithmetic on Tuesday 11th December when I read a report that the President had made a request to the National Assembly for a Supplementary amount of N161 billion as fuel subsidy payment for the remaining three weeks in this year as, according to him, the original N881 billion budgeted for that purpose for the whole of the year had been exhausted.

Now, there is no reason to suspect our dear President of falsehood, but the Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala had on October 21 said the N888 billion allocated for subsidy payments in the 2012 budget should be enough to pay petroleum product importers and that government might not need supplementary appropriation for subsidy payments in 2012. So I thought maybe Mr. President had been misled, yet again, by his retinue of ineffective, over-paid aides into submitting a supplementary budget request for the wrong purpose, or maybe there was a typographic error on the request paper and Mr. Jonathan meant to ask for N16.1 billion, or N1.61 billion. Anyway, I brought out my calculator to crunch some numbers to see where lays the error.

Just so you know how big N161 billion is, at least in budgetary terms, consider how it compares to some selected allocations in the 2013 Budget Proposal presented by President Goodluck Jonathan to the National Assembly some weeks back:

The N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is: almost twice the total allocation for Agriculture in 2013 (N81 billion times 2 = N162 billion); more than twice the total allocation for Power in 2013 (N74 billion times 2 = N148 billion); more than thrice the total allocation for Water Resources in 2013 (N47 billion times 3 = N141 billion); more than twice the capital allocation for Education in 2013 (N60 billion times 2 = N120 billion); almost thrice the capital allocation for Health in 2013 (N55 billion times 3 = N165 billion); more than the capital allocation for Works in 2013 (N151 billion); more than twice the total allocation for Niger Delta in 2013 (N63 billion times 2 = N126 billion).

The N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is more than twice the Statutory Transfer for Universal Basic Education in 2013 (N72 billion times 2 = 144 billion); more than twice the Statutory Transfer for Niger-Delta Development Commission in 2013 (N57 billion times 2 = N114 billion), more than the Statutory Transfer for the National Assembly in 2013 (N150 billion). Indeed, the N161 billion for 3 weeks fuel subsidy is more than the sum total of the 2013 total allocation for Science and Technology (N31 billion), Mines and Steel (N13 billion), Environment (N21 billion), Lands and Housing (N24 billion); Aviation (N53 billion) (sum total = N141 billion).


Now that we know just how big the additional N161 billion Mr. President is asking for is, please follow me diligently as we go through the arithmetic of year 2012 fuel subsidy payments. Please note that some of the figures used here are approximates.


First let’s go through the basics:

There are 52 weeks in year 2012, out of which we have spent 49 weeks, with 3 weeks left.

So far, we have spent N881 billion on fuel subsidy for 49 weeks, which translates into about N18 billion per week, N2.6 billion per day, N107 million per hour, N1.8 million per minute.

According to Mr. President, we need an additional N161 billion to pay for fuel subsidy for the remaining 3 weeks in the year, which translates into about N53.7 billion per week, N7.7 billion per day, N319 million per hour, N5.3 million per minute.

How much is fuel subsidy?

On January 1st 2012 when the government of Goodluck Jonathan decided to completely remove subsidy on fuel, one litre of PMS sold for N141. After the OccupyNigeria nationwide protests and help from Labour Unions, government agreed to a partial subsidy regime, with PMS to sell for N97 per litre. This means that actual subsidy on one litre of PMS is N44 (N141 minus N97).


How much fuel can we subsidize with N881 billion?

How many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N881 billion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N881 billion divided by N44 = 20 billion litres.

So the federal government has used N881 billion to, benevolently, subsidize 20 billion litres of fuel between January and now, which puts consumption at 20 billion litres in 49 weeks, 408 million litres per week, N58 million litres per day, 2.5 million litres per hour.


How much fuel can we subsidize with N161 billion?

So how many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N161 billion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N161 billion divided by N44 = 3.7 billion litres.

So the federal government is going to use N161 billion to, benevolently, subsidize 3.7 billion litres of fuel between now and the end of the year, which puts projected consumption at 3.7 billion litres in 3 weeks, 1.2 billion litres per week, 174 million litres per day, 7.3 million litres per hour.

So government estimates that Nigerians are going to consume three times more fuel in the next three weeks than they did at any point during the past 49 weeks.


How much is fuel subsidy for the entire year?

If the National Assembly approves the N161 billion Fuel Subsidy Supplementary Budget request as made by Goodluck Jonathan, total amount spent on fuel subsidy in year 2012 would be:

Amount spent on fuel subsidy for 49 weeks (N881 billion) plus Amount to be spent on fuel subsidy for 3 weeks (N161 billion) = N1.042 trillion

N1.042 trillion spent on fuel subsidy in 52 weeks translates into about N20 billion per week, N2.85 billion per day, N119 million per hour, N2 million per minute.



How much fuel can we subsidize with N1.042 trillion?

So how many litres of fuel can we subsidize with N1.042 trillion at the rate of N44 subsidy per litre?

N1.042 trillion divided by N44 = 23.7 billion litres.

So the federal government is going to use N1.042 trillion to, benevolently, subsidize 23.7 billion litres of fuel for the whole of year 2012, which puts consumption at 23.7 billion litres in 52 weeks, 455 million litres per week, 65 million litres per day, 2.7 million litres per hour.


How much fuel do Nigerians actually consume per day?

The answer to this question depends on the source you consult. According to Mr. Enoch Kenawa, the Secretary of the Oil Marketers Association, it is 35 million litres per day; according to Mr. Reginald Stanley, the Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA), Nigeria imports 59 million litres of fuel per day, but Nigerians only consume 35 million litres, while the remaining 24 million litres are unaccounted for; while the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation puts national daily consumption figures between 30 and 33 million litres.

So we can safely assume Nigerians consume 35 million litres of fuel per day, which translates into about 245 million litres per week and about 13 billion litres for the entire year.



Subsidy figures based on national daily consumption:

If Nigerians consume 35 million litres of fuel per day, and government pays a subsidy of N44 on each litre:

Subsidy payment per day: 35 million litres times N44 = N1.54 billion per day

Subsidy payment per week: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 = N10.8 billion

Subsidy payment for 3 weeks: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 times 3 = N32.3 billion

Subsidy payment for 49 weeks: 35 million litres times N44 times 7 times 49 = N528 billion

Subsidy payment for a year: 35 million litres times N44 times times 365 = N562 billion

* Please note that the combined daily fuel productions of Nigeria’s four refineries, which are not subsidized, were ignored in this calculation to avoid complications.

* Also note that fuel was not subsidized for the first 3 weeks of year 2012.


Summary:

The federal government claims to have spent N881 on fuel subsidy for the past 49 weeks when in fact that actual amount should be N528 billion

The federal government proposes to spend N161 billion on fuel subsidy for the next 3 weeks when the actual amount should be N32.3 billion

If request for supplementary fund is granted, the federal government would spend a total of N1.042 trillion on fuel subsidy in year 2012 when the actual amount should be just about half of that (N562 billion).

The difference between government’s claims and actual amount is: N480 billion. Haven taken you through the rigours of how big, in budgetary terms, N161 billion is, I won’t take you through that stress for N480 billion. But do note that N480 billion is almost 3 times N161 billion.

Every single day in year 2012, for all of the 365 days in the year, including public holidays, and Sabbaath days which God asked us to keep holy, Goodluck Jonathan is short-changing Nigerians to the tune of N1.3 billion. N1.3 billion disappears from the coffers of the nation, goes into the pockets of the croonies of the criminals in power, and someone somewhere writes on that monumnetal fraud: Fuel Subsidy!

Every single hour in year 2012, N55 million disappears under the government of Goodluck Jonathan. Mr. President has installed an Automated Looting Machine into the cashware of the nation’s finances., he called it Fuel Subsidy. The machine dispenses N55 million every hour, almost N1 million per minute, round the clock. And that machine is about to get really busy in the next three weeks, if the National Assembly rubberstamps that N161 billion request.

Mr. President has declared an end of the year bonanza for his friends, it would cost the nation N161 billion.

Closing:

In closing, I bring you the words of Mr. Enoch Kenawa, the Secretary of the Oil Marketers Association via the Punch, he said: “We have said it continuously in the past that the N888bn fuel subsidy budget for 2012 was inadequate but the finance minister has been proving stubborn and deceiving Nigerians that the amount would be enough. We have been in this business for a long time and we know what the trends are. I am happy that our position has been justified. We are calling on the National Assembly to quickly pass request of the President so that supply of products can increase. Once the money is approved, Nigerians are assured of a good holiday period to ensure adequate supply of fuel during Christmas.”

There, brethren, is the handwriting on the wall, in bold letters for all to see.

By Ogunyemi Bukola

PosCaricature :
We are watching!

then whre wil d tiefs steal frm

@ypzilanti
you and the author of that article deserve each new brand gift of private jets.

For a nation that wants to depend completely on "Oil" it's not surprising.

Depending on oil is not the problem but how the oil money is spent. The oil industry have been turned to a program where the so callers rulers play their corruption game. Many oil producing countries are making it, so why can't Nigeria make it? - the simple answer is CORRUPTION.

Fund economy or pay their own salaries? Greedy goons that use 70% of our resources on recurrent expenses and borrow money for all major projects, even the oil, oil companies have to go borrow money to fund drilling and production before collecting govt portion later and they are talking of funding economy?

Let me try and play the devil's advocate, the finance minister is not a politician and that is where she is going to have problem with GEJ who as a politician must take into consideration all the demands of his associates while trying to deliver on some points. NOI should just try and talk less while doing more or she would be disgraced in a worse manner than what happend in the time of OBJ.

otokx: This is a silly lie.

actually it could be true.. the united states is now the top producer of oil, our greatest importer is usa too

Ptimes: There are indications that the Nigeria may not be able finance its 2013 budget given the declining level of its crude oil demanded by major buyers such as the United States and the glaring fact that the nation will have to look at other light oil importers to supply its oil.

A report by Financial Derivatives Company, a diversified financial services institution, states that at present, the total crude oil imports into the U.S. (which accounted for 30 per cent and 33 per cent of Nigerian crude oil exports in 2010 and 2011 respectively with oil receipts ranging from $19bn, $31bn and $34bn in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively) are declining and those from Nigeria are declining at an even steeper rate as the U.S. is expected to become the world’s top oil producer by 2017 and to be possibly self-sufficient in its energy needs by 2035.

The firm said the implications of these developments are very crucial for Nigeria whose budget revenue depends on oil.

Read more: http://premiumtimesng.com/news/111156-nigeria-may-not-be-able-to-finance-2013-budget-report.html

i wonder wat wil hapun 2 our lovely country and hw d politicians wil react by d time d oil in our country is exhausted

@ypzilanti, u hv tried hard to push yr silly calculatns on d 161bn new subsidy request since yterday, and in yr passion for a hacket job u hv completely refusd to use yr head. That long article from d equali silly writer rest ENTIRELY on dis premise: the 161bn wud be usd to pay for d remaining 3wks of d yr. That claim shows d ignorance of d writer who to be fair to him already confessd he is bad in maths.. The #161bn was requestd by d President so as to augment whateva was left of d #886bn budgetd sum SO THAT THOSE MARKETERS WHO THE GOVT HAVE WITHHELD THEIR PAYMENTS COS OF THE VERIFICATIONS and whose claims hv bn found by d latest Audit report to be legitimate (ie those not among d #239bn d International audit firm found culpable) can be paid b4 d end of d yr so that they can start importing fuel so d nation can hv sufficient fuel for the yuletide, in oda words dis sum and d balance from d budgetd sum is d amount needed to pay those marketers afta d verificatn- this was essentiali d crust of d Letter d President sent to d Senate and House of Reps. It didnt say money was meant to be usd to import fuel needed dese last 3wks...... Una nova tire to dey spread PROPAGANDA and LIES (already sm of eediots are already passing round materials 'showing' that dis same 161bn was requestd by d president to pay NOI mother's kidnappers #1bn ransom! even when d request hv bn made to d NA b4 d kidnap. Na play na play, soon sm gullible peep wud use dis to debate me here on NL and definately anoda PROPAGANDIST writer wud do an article 'explaining' it cos he/she knows there are a huge chunk of gullible ppl in 9ja tday)....*smh*

don't worry guys,we will lend you some money

yes i will vote but as usual MONEY now

taharqa: @ypzilanti, u hv tried hard to push yr silly calculatns on d 161bn new subsidy request since yterday, and in yr passion for a hacket job u hv completely refusd to use yr head. That long article from d equali silly writer rest ENTIRELY on dis premise: the 161bn wud be usd to pay for d remaining 3wks of d yr. That claim shows d ignorance of d writer who to be fair to him already confessd he is bad in maths.. The #161bn was requestd by d President so as to augment whateva was left of d #886bn budgetd sum SO THAT THOSE MARKETERS WHO THE GOVT HAVE WITHHELD THEIR PAYMENTS COS OF THE VERIFICATIONS and whose claims hv bn found by d latest Audit report to be legitimate (ie those not among d #239bn d International audit firm found culpable) can be paid b4 d end of d yr so that they can start importing fuel so d nation can hv sufficient fuel for the yuletide, in oda words dis sum and d balance from d budgetd sum is d amount needed to pay those marketers afta d verificatn- this was essentiali d crust of d Letter d President sent to d Senate and House of Reps. It didnt say money was meant to be usd to import fuel needed dese last 3wks...... Una nova tire to dey spread PROPAGANDA and LIES (already sm of eediots are already passing round materials 'showing' that dis same 161bn was requestd by d president to pay NOI mother's kidnappers #1bn ransom! even when d request hv bn made to d NA b4 d kidnap. Na play na play, soon sm gullible peep wud use dis to debate me here on NL and definately anoda PROPAGANDIST writer wud do an article 'explaining' it cos he/she knows there are a huge chunk of gullible ppl in 9ja tday)....*smh*

Fair enough.

Nonetheless you conveniently avoided the part where article had shown that we could not, with our current consumption rate, have exhausted the N880b originally appropriated for subsidy this year. Or is it that part was also used to settle arrears?

However, in fairness to Goodluck, if he had had his way early this year with the removal of subsidy, questionable payments like this would not have arisen. We chose to retain the controversial payments, so we should be ready to handle its fallout.

..

A nation that spends 70% of her budget on recurrent expenditures (salaries,allowances of real workers,ghost workers and political appointees) and 30% of her budget on capital expenditures is bound to go bankrupt! Exactly the sign of what is to come, seriously that guy called Sanusi Lamido Sanusi has a secret agenda, he must be closely watched! He has a secret agenda to rule, just watch out!

miky:

actually it could be true.. the united states is now the top producer of oil, our greatest importer is usa too

And with cheap oil coming into the US from the Canadian oilsands (3rd largest reserve in the world), demand for Nigerian light crude is deffo gonna reduce.

all4naija: Look to China!

China is very far and they want the oil sold to them for a cheap price.

plendil:

Fair enough.

Nonetheless you conveniently avoided the part where article had shown that we could not, with our current consumption rate, have exhausted the N880b originally appropriated for subsidy this year. Or is it that part was also used to settle arrears?

However, in fairness to Goodluck, if he had had his way early this year with the removal of subsidy, questionable payments like this would not have arisen. We chose to retain the controversial payments, so we should be ready to handle its fallout.

So what about all the so called arrears--yet to be verified, btw--that our FG's in a hurry to pay off? What makes u think that had the subsidy been removed, we won't be still be spending so much greasing the palms of political cronies under the guise of settling arrears?

I remain unshaken in my belief that the decision to fight against the removal of subsidy was a wise one.

ypzilanti: Alternative fuels are also coming up too. The western scientists are in the lab as we speak right now formulating alternative fuels.

guy,wake up nd stop dreaming...

Logic dictates that if we can determine how much fuel nigerians consume daily we can dictate how much subsidy would be paid daily. In other climes this wouldn't be an issue but trust naija, the absence of records is the presence of theives.
Personally I still believe that subsidy is a looting format used by GEj and cronies.

For me I think it is good news. Oil has not been a blessing in any way. When the oil is gone, we will start thinking with our heads.

I smell complete removal of subsidy next yr..... PDP will sell nigeria someday

Ha Ha Ha.. such a funny news. we might not be able to finance our 2013 budget.

taharqa: @ypzilanti, u hv tried hard to push yr silly calculatns on d 161bn new subsidy request since yterday, and in yr passion for a hacket job u hv completely refusd to use yr head. That long article from d equali silly writer rest ENTIRELY on dis premise: the 161bn wud be usd to pay for d remaining 3wks of d yr. That claim shows d ignorance of d writer who to be fair to him already confessd he is bad in maths.. The #161bn was requestd by d President so as to augment whateva was left of d #886bn budgetd sum SO THAT THOSE MARKETERS WHO THE GOVT HAVE WITHHELD THEIR PAYMENTS COS OF THE VERIFICATIONS and whose claims hv bn found by d latest Audit report to be legitimate (ie those not among d #239bn d International audit firm found culpable) can be paid b4 d end of d yr so that they can start importing fuel so d nation can hv sufficient fuel for the yuletide, in oda words dis sum and d balance from d budgetd sum is d amount needed to pay those marketers afta d verificatn- this was essentiali d crust of d Letter d President sent to d Senate and House of Reps. It didnt say money was meant to be usd to import fuel needed dese last 3wks...... Una nova tire to dey spread PROPAGANDA and LIES (already sm of eediots are already passing round materials 'showing' that dis same 161bn was requestd by d president to pay NOI mother's kidnappers #1bn ransom! even when d request hv bn made to d NA b4 d kidnap. Na play na play, soon sm gullible peep wud use dis to debate me here on NL and definately anoda PROPAGANDIST writer wud do an article 'explaining' it cos he/she knows there are a huge chunk of gullible ppl in 9ja tday)....*smh*

i saw that basic oversight too. Our mathematician was more interested in bringing up a sensational newspiece, same with the guys drawing up links between NOIs mum's kidnap and GEJ's request.
Personally, i supported the subsidy protests back in January, but over the ensuing months, i have had time to reflect and see we are shooting ourselves in the foot by retaining subsidy. Subsidy payments have now risen to 1 trillion. Just for comparison, key sectors such as education got 400billion, roads got 100 billion and so on.1 trillion spent on servicing consumption of just one product per year? OMG!!!
Removal of subsidy will free up money for other projects, projects that will better our living standards, in addition will also clean up, to a large extent, the corruption in the petroleum sector.
In my opinion, GEJ is running the most transparent govt so far, despite being largely misunderstood. He has shown a committment to right the wrong of past governments. I'm not a mindless praise-singer as i also believe thee is so much more he could do, but the consolation is that his govenment has shown the political commitment to get it done.

I sorry for this nation - I regret being a citizen --some analyst predicted 2053 nigeria oil will dry up what will we do now these stewpid leaders won't plan now !!!

I want to believe dis is just a mere coincidence with d 1b dollar ransom demanded for NOI's mum. $1bn= #160b

caesaraba: Who cares? What's the point of being able to finance a budget and not implementing it?

I feel u bro