PDP vs APC - 2015 Presidential Election Projection Model

Hello Nairalanders,

Given the news of the merger, I thought it would be nice for us to have a data driven debate on the 2015 election. I have made some edits to my 2011 model and I have come up with a new improved model for 2015 presidential election.

The three tabs in the model are as follows:

Summary: Shows the summarized election result.

Input (Make Edits Here): This tab allows you to make edits to the assumptions of the model based on the number of votes the 4 major candidates got in the 2011 election. You should only edit the cells that are colored yellow and red. For example under the heading "% of Jonathan's 2011 Votes" you can make assumptions on whether Jonathan would get 100% of the votes he got in 2011 or whether other candidates will get some of the votes he won. You can do the same for the other candidate who ran in 2011. You can also make edits to voter turnout based on whether you expect it to increase or decrease.

Election Result Details: This shows the detailed election result by state.

I have made my assumptions in the model for the 2015 election and I think that it will be a very close race if the ACN, CPC, ANPP, and APGA are united behind Buhari and Fashola. Please look at the model and ask any question you have about the assumptions I made. I do not want to go into detail because I don’t want my post to be too long.

Please do not edit the Summary or Election Result Details tabs. ONLY MAKE EDITS TO THE CELLS COLORED YELLOW AND RED ON THE INPUT (MAKE EDITS HERE) TAB.

I think that the opposition could give PDP a run for its money but it would still be a close election. If the opposition presents Buhari and Fashola, many dissatisfied Jonathan supporters would simply stay at home on election day because Buhari is a divisive figure; but I am not yet sure if many of them would vote for Buhari. The key to success though, would be to make sure that Jonathan does not get a unanimous mandate from the South South and Southeast. The opposition should campaign in those two regions very aggressively. The opposition winning 25% in the Southsouth and Southeast would be a big blow to Jonathan.

lol at close election

2003 General Presidential Elections
[img]http://whoruleswhere.files./2011/03/2003-nigeria-presidential.gif?w=510[/img]

2011 General Presidential Elections
[img]http://geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Nigeria-election-map.jpg[/img]


the %age of the electorate that PDP won with GEJ is more than that combine total of all of the presidential candidates of the other parties.
This means that PDP alone is more popular than all of the combined parties. More importantly outside of the Southwest, half of the east (which is now reduced to one state-Imo), and a few irrelevant pockets in the North, PDP controls the governorships of Nigeria, the National Assembly and the House.


The heavy weighs of this merger are the ANPP and ANC, CPC is hot air, they only control one state and have one popular member- Buhari. AGPA is more powerful than CPC as they control 2 states. CPC is even less powerful than Mimiko's Labor Party if you factor resources of controlled states.



Lets not get ahead of ourselves. In the sheer numbers and influence game, PDP is still the hands down winner. the APC would have to field a candidate that breaks the new PDP base; Igbos, moderate northerners. But CPC and ANPP represent the conservative north, which is an element that has built enough resentment for itself to sink anything it's associated with on a national scale.


More importantly Rochas has turned himself into a clown, and doesn't have any barring in bringing over the Igbo consensus and absolutely no ability to bring in the South South or North.



if PDP field Amaechi and Lamido, it's game over. If they field GEJ it'll be contested but anyone looking realistically at Nigeria knows GEJ is still more popular than all of these parties combined.

I disagree with you. First of all CPC has 6 senators and about 33 representatives. How many does APGA have? At the end of the day, please remember that mergers happen because of the belief in synergies. In the world of mergers 1 + 1 = 3 because of synergies. You can bash CPC all you want but their presidential candidate got 12 million votes. How many did ACN and ANPP get in 2011? In 2011 the opposition had its limited resources scattered. This time they would be able to devote all of their resources to supporting one presidential ticket. Doing so would create a perception of formidability. Please remember that many Nigerians dont vote because they do not believe that the opposition can win. With this merger in place, the opposition will perform better because there would be a perception that they are a formidable match against PDP.

Modified... With apologies

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

LMAO how can I respond to this. I am not in my 70s I am actually in my 20s. The assumptions I put into the model was an example i.e. a scenario. Many options should be examined and you are free to examine your own options. All I am saying is that it helps to have data when evaluating options. Having data helps you answer questions like: can a candidate win with votes from only the NW, NE, and SW? What percent of votes would a candidate need from the SS and SE? Those are valid questions that need to be answered and a model like this can help. While Buhari has many shortcomings, the reason why many people in the opposition still bring up his name is because he brings 12 million votes to the table at very little expense. Presidential campaigns cost a lot of money in Nigeria and if a merger can start off with 12 million votes, they could look for 6 - 8 million more votes from SW, NC, SS, and SE. You dont need to engage in name calling. Debate the topic and I will respond in kind.

danjohn:

LMAO how can I respond to this. I am not in my 70s I am actually in my 20s. The assumptions I put into the model was an example i.e. a scenario. Many options should be examined and you are free to examine your own options. All I am saying is that it helps to have data when evaluating options. Having data helps you answer questions like: can a candidate win with votes from only the NW, NE, and SW? What percent of votes would a candidate need from the SS and SE? Those are valid questions that need to be answered and a model like this can help. While Buhari has many shortcomings, the reason why many people in the opposition still bring up his name is because he brings 12 million votes to the table at very little expense. Presidential elections cost a lot of money and in Nigeria and if a merger can start off with 12 million votes, they could look for 6 - 8 million more votes from SW, NC, SS, and SE. You dont need to engage in name calling. Debate the topic and I will respond in kind.

Sorry it had to be you but I just had to get it off my chest. The number of times folks like you either through innocuous projections or outright stupidity have brought up Buhari's has simply been absurd. All these tacit endorsements and subtle campaigns MUST now stop.
@bolded, that's exactly why I said it doesn't matter if he's got legions of ediots as supporters.

wesley80:
Sorry it had to be you but I just had to get it off my chest. The number of times folks like you either through innocuous projections or outright stupidity have brought up Buhari's has simply been absurd. All these tacit endorsements and subtle campaigns MUST now stop.
@bolded, that's exactly why I said it doesn't matter if he's got legions of ediots as supporters.

So, the 12 million people that voted for him are idiots? You are saying nobody in that 12 million is wiser than a foolish Igbo bigot like you? I voted for Buhari and I have never voted for PDP and will never. Are you saying you are better than me considering anything even when you dont know who I am? Many of us can put your entire family where ever they may be (whether in the bush of SE) on permanent salary without thinking about it. We love our country and we want the country to move forward - the reason we are supporting a man that has been tested and can be trusted. A man we are sure we work only in the interest of the people because he has done this before in different capacity. You, a fool would prefer that we put the country in the hand of vagabonds because of ethnicity and hatred for other peoples belief. What manner of a human being are you? I have never seen a human being with animal gene...

Sincerely, words can't explain the level of your foolishness - it is very pathetic.

@Danjohn, thanks for your intelligent response to this fool. I agree with your viewpoint and calculations. This is however too complex for the likes of wesley80 to understand.

Wadeoye:
I voted for Buhari and sincerely I have never voted for PDP and will never. Are you saying you are better than me considering anything even when you dont know who I am?

No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

danjohn: I think that the opposition could give PDP a run for its money but it would still be a close election. If the opposition presents Buhari and Fashola, many dissatisfied Jonathan supporters would simply stay at home on election day because Buhari is a divisive figure; but I am not yet sure if many of them would vote for Buhari. The key to success though, would be to make sure that Jonathan does not get a unanimous mandate from the South South and Southeast. The opposition should campaign in those two regions very aggressively. The opposition winning 25% in the Southsouth and Southeast would be a big blow to Jonathan.

Good analysis but I still believe Buhari is the best option for the opposition, he is the only person who can deliver 12 million votes without spending a dime, he is incomparable to people like Ribadu who couldnt even deliver his own state in the last presidential election. I am 100% sure the SW will definitely not vote for GEJ so the real battle lies in NC, if the opposition can add states like Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Edo in addition the the SW, then they have a great chance to defeat the PDP. People like Okorocha, Ngige, Oshiomole could also help the opposition getting a sizeable number of votes in the SS/SE.

danjohn: I disagree with you. First of all CPC has 6 senators and about 33 representatives. How many does APGA have? At the end of the day, please remember that mergers happen because of the belief in synergies. In the world of mergers 1 + 1 = 3 because of synergies. You can bash CPC all you want but their presidential candidate got 12 million votes. How many did ACN and ANPP get in 2011? In 2011 the opposition had its limited resources scattered. This time they would be able to devote all of their resources to supporting one presidential ticket. Doing so would create a perception of formidability. Please remember that many Nigerians dont vote because they do not believe that the opposition can win. With this merger in place, the opposition will perform better because there would be a perception that they are a formidable match against PDP.

You and I know that governors are more powerful than senators in Nigeria. More importantly governors often hand select senators.
If CPC got 12 million votes congratulations to them, Jonathan got 70 million +

now GEJ is a nobody at the time, the only thing ppl had to use for voting for him was party, tribe, religion and region.


Buhari was an established heavy weight in Nigerian politics. Now tell me, if they can't run Buhari, who else will gather half as much support as buhari from cpc? CPC isn't a popular party. They are blessed Buhari is with them, but after him there's no more and that's why they only hold one state.

You're telling my about synergy and im telling you about reality. GEJ had more votes than all of the opposition parties combine, all of the parties combining won't make a difference, they already tried to go against him. ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.







This 'mega party' is a good move, but it's not enough. They need to hit GEJ where he can't recover and that's by taking the igbo vote.
At the same time idk if they'll be better than PDP jare. ANPP are the masters of poverty and the most corrupt backwards states in Nigeria and CPC is right up there with them. What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

Am Baffel at the suggestion of Buhari.I don't think he can offer anything.

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

Ok cool, if you are not better than me, it means you are more idiotic (on the scale of idiocy) than many of us and we can say this is the reason you ignorantly voted for a dull man as your president. And since we are at least better/smarter than you, we will continue to show you the right path - being our brothers keeper

Ikengawo:

You and I know that governors are more powerful than senators in Nigeria. More importantly governors often hand select senators.
If CPC got 12 million votes congratulations to them, Jonathan got 70 million +

now GEJ is a nobody at the time, the only thing ppl had to use for voting for him was party, tribe, religion and region.


Buhari was an established heavy weight in Nigerian politics. Now tell me, if they can't run Buhari, who else will gather half as much support as buhari from cpc? CPC isn't a popular party. They are blessed Buhari is with them, but after him there's no more and that's why they only hold one state.

You're telling my about synergy and im telling you about reality. GEJ had more votes than all of the opposition parties combine, all of the parties combining won't make a difference, they already tried to go against him. ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.







This 'mega party' is a good move, but it's not enough. They need to hit GEJ where he can't recover and that's by taking the igbo vote.
At the same time idk if they'll be better than PDP jare. ANPP are the masters of poverty and the most corrupt backwards states in Nigeria and CPC is right up there with them. What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

Where did GEJ get 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

Wadeoye:

Where did GEJ got 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

Thank you.

Why can't some people post a simple comment without insults? Smh! Its a pity, the actual literacy level of Nigerians is pretty much lower than we think. Its a very simple topic!"PDP vs APC- 2015 Presidential Election Projection Model". You can suggest yours successfully without insulting anybody for suggesting his/hers I guess. @Topic PDP is still a very strong force. I bet APC will be disgraced if they feel just a meager can wrestle power from the "den of killers". However if they start early grassroot voters education, let the people in villages who constitute a greater percentage of voters know that election goes beyound accepting that bag of rice, pack of maggi, wrappers, etc and "pressing you hand on Umblerra", teach them that you can still collect all these and vote for a party of your choice. If the new APC can start this right away, I am sure come 2015 we will be singing a song of deliverance from the hands of PDP.

peckhamboi:

Good analysis but I still believe Buhari is the best option for the opposition, he is the only person who can deliver 12 million votes without spending a dime, he is incomparable to people like Ribadu who couldnt even deliver his own state in the last presidential election. I am 100% sure the SW will definitely not vote for GEJ so the real battle lies in NC, if the opposition can add states like Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Edo in addition the the SW, then they have a great chance to defeat the PDP. People like Okorocha, Ngige, Oshiomole could also help the opposition getting a sizeable number of votes in the SS/SE.

I made very conservative assumptions in the model. If you look at the model you will see that Lagos is a statistical tie. The reason why is because of the large Igbo and Niger Delta population. I think that the assumptions I used represent a fair base case scenario. That being said, it is very possible for Jonathan's popularity to decline even further thus creating a wave dissatisfied citizens voting against him. Anything can happen.

12 Reasons why The New Party APC May Not Be The CHANGE:
1. 85% of them were former PDP members
2. Most of parties in the collation are regional parties.
3. Forming a party just to win election is not the solution we need.
4. Too many cook spoil the food.
5. PDP remains the only true NATIONAL PARTY in Nigeria.
6. War within the members of the merged party
7. Egos, pride, etc will mar the party.
8. None of the parties in the alliance have internal democracy.
9. PDP won't go to sleep as APC would want to think.
10. Most of the members in APC were criminal under PDP.
11. Some of the parties can't even win a state outside their zone
12. Our politics is mostly MONEY CONTROLLED and PDP got the money.

danjohn: . Please remember that many Nigerians dont vote because they do not believe that the opposition can win. With this merger in place, the opposition will perform better because there would be a perception that they are a formidable match against PDP.

Brilliant.

Present at the merged party press conference to unveil the new party APC were, Tom Ikimi, Chairman of the ACN Merger Committee, representative of APGA, Senator Annie Okonkwo, former governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau the Chairman, Merger Committee of ANPP and Garba Sadi, Chairman, Merger Committee for CPC.

Remember a day earlier 10 opposition governors of ACN, CPC, ANPP and APGA namely Borno, Ekiti, Imo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Yobe and Zamfara .....please note that Edo and Anambra state governors did not attend or send representation.

Already the APGA is kicking that Gov Rochas Okorocha was not mandated to go into any merger talk for the party. No wonder Peter Obi of Anambra did not join in. Obi and Rochas have been having running battle over the control of APGA. Gov Obi is sympathetic and loyal to GEJ same way Adams Oshomole of Edo state is.

Labour Party governor Mimiko has never hidden his hate for Bola Tinubu's ACN, this was evident in last October governorship election were camp Mimiko and camp Tinubu slugged it out. As we know, Mimiko is a PDP man in LP cloth and his support for GEJ is not in doubt.

So who and who are united in this merger? Team ACN and Team CPC mostly. Team ACN is centrally controlled by Bola Tinubu and Team CPC is controlled by Gen Buhari and Mallam El-Rufai.

Now the main ish, Mallam El-Rufai is known for his arrogance and I-know-too-much attitude, within the CPC he's not trusted by the members who see him as someone that opens can of worms when bittered. He is more of political excess baggage than asset to the CPC, even though the party is yet to realise this.

Then we have Tinubu factor. A man that has got all to gain and nothing to loose. The supreme leader of ACN has never been trusted even within the opposition parties, they see his inherent ambition to be president at all cost as his weakest link. Tinubu sold 2011 ACN support to GEJ for yet to be disclosed amount and immunity from criminal prosecution.

The likes of Tom Ikimi, Annie Okonwo and the rest of same bedfellows are unlikely democrats. Ikimi the Edo state born controversial politician was an apostle of Gen Abacha when he served as Abacha's Foreign Minister. Ikimi turned the truth of Abacha's evil regime on its head. Today he's in APC. I laugh.

Chief Annie Okonkwo the Okaka of Ojoto is a known 419ner and election rigger, who until recent was a PDP senator before he suffered defeat.

Are these the kinda people APC want to rescue Nigeria? My question is rescue Nigerians from who?

Op, hope you put into consideration the multiple rigging of pdp in your equation?
No equation will be balanced without putting in effect the pdp rigging mechanism. They so perfected it that they get almost 90% of total number of registered voters in a state, recording another 96% voters turnout!

Buhari again!












I just dey laffffffff

The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

If Buhari can deliver what he did in 2011 and ACN can deliver the SW 6 states

iirc in 2011 Buhari won 13 states Jonathan won 23 states

If The SW delivers all 6 states to the new Party It would read APC 19 states Jonathan 18 states. Buhari edges it

Thats assuming ONLY the SW change. Thats why I say the SW holds the key to this election

Given the Population of Nigeria most of the most populous states like Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos, Oyo would be with the APC and they can win the states and the simple majority

States like Taraba, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa that was won by Jonathan might be winable for Buhari with more work done

This is a sketchy analysis

i shld av paid attention in geography class
me no undastand all dese jawe.........sumbody xplain

No be only APC, na RPG .
If dem like make dem form voltron. dem neva see nothing, 2015 will be a solar-slide!
Up GEJ!!!!!!

Mazi_Omenuko: Op, hope you put into consideration the multiple rigging of pdp in your equation?
No equation will be balanced without putting in effect the pdp rigging mechanism. They so perfected it that they get almost 90% of total number of registered voters in a state, recording another 96% voters turnout!

APC quite has a full knowledge of this. You need to wait and see how PDP will be creepled and rendered impotent. Remember Bakare's word about election coming up next year (2014). The man knew what he was saying. PDP would be forced to adhere to electoral rules and regulations by fire by force.

dayokanu: The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

If Buhari can deliver what he did in 2011 and ACN can deliver the SW 6 states

iirc in 2011 Buhari won 13 states Jonathan won 23 states

If The SW delivers all 6 states to the new Party It would read APC 19 states Jonathan 18 states. Buhari edges it

[b][b][b]Thats assuming ONLY the SW change. Thats why I say the SW holds the key to this election

Given the Population of Nigeria most of the most populous states like Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos, Oyo would be with the APC and they can win the states and the simple majority[/b][/b]
[/b]
States like Taraba, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa that was won by Jonathan might be winable for Buhari with more work done

This is a sketchy analysis

@Bolded, what are you feeling like while making the above bolded comment. Are you feeling like south westerners control the largest population in these states you listed? My friend wake me up when you are done with this your Joseph dream, properly that would be in 2016.

Mind you i am not a PDP member before you call me names, i never voted in Nigeria and has no intention to vote soon as long as people like Buhari, tinumbu,and co still parade them self's as the maradonas in Nigeria leadership.

Ikengawo: lol at close election

2003 General Presidential Elections
[img]http://whoruleswhere.files./2011/03/2003-nigeria-presidential.gif?w=510[/img]

2011 General Presidential Elections
[img]http://geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Nigeria-election-map.jpg[/img]


the %age of the electorate that PDP won with GEJ is more than that combine total of all of the presidential candidates of the other parties.
This means that PDP alone is more popular than all of the combined parties. More importantly outside of the Southwest, half of the east (which is now reduced to one state-Imo), and a few irrelevant pockets in the North, PDP controls the governorships of Nigeria, the National Assembly and the House.


The heavy weighs of this merger are the ANPP and ANC, CPC is hot air, they only control one state and have one popular member- Buhari. AGPA is more powerful than CPC as they control 2 states. CPC is even less powerful than Mimiko's Labor Party if you factor resources of controlled states.



Lets not get ahead of ourselves. In the sheer numbers and influence game, PDP is still the hands down winner. the APC would have to field a candidate that breaks the new PDP base; Igbos, moderate northerners. But CPC and ANPP represent the conservative north, which is an element that has built enough resentment for itself to sink anything it's associated with on a national scale.


More importantly Rochas has turned himself into a clown, and doesn't have any barring in bringing over the Igbo consensus and absolutely no ability to bring in the South South or North.



if PDP field Amaechi and Lamido, it's game over. If they field GEJ it'll be contested but anyone looking realistically at Nigeria knows GEJ is still more popular than all of these parties combined.

This is a pretty good analysis.
Unfortunately, the merger is obviously a short-term arrangement, and is likely to collapse after 2015. Else if these guys had any vision, they would work towards increasing their muscle in 2015 (wrestling more state governorship seats from the PDP, and expanding their National Assembly footprint). It's virtually impossible to take the presidency from PDP in 2015, Jonathan or not. 2019 is more realistic, and they have the material to make it happen.

I wouldn't bet on the APC in 2015.

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

You really don't have to resort to name calling to make your point, your overbearing and bullying writing style is a big turn off. As much as i don't support a Buhari presidency run, i do not agree that he is a dumb person. I'll prefer a dumb Buhari to a dumb GEJ, a Phd. holder. Buhari, barely literate? i beg your pardon!

9ja_I_hail:

@Bolded, what are you feeling like while making the above bolded comment. Are you feeling like south westerners control the largest population in these states you listed? My friend wake me up when you are done with this your Joseph dream, properly that would be in 2016.

Mind you i am not a PDP member before you call me names, i never voted in Nigeria and has no intention to vote soon as long as people like Buhari, tinumbu,and co still parade them self's as the maradonas in Nigeria leadership.

Which states are you talking about?

Are you asking whether its SW who control the largest population in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun etc states?

If thats your question then the answer is YES

WHO IS BUHARI?