I noticed Oshiomole's name was conspicuously missing from the 10 governors that endorsed the merger and subsequent formation of the All Progressive Congress. Considering that his party, the ACN was a key player in the merger, you would think he would be one of the key supporters.
But no, A delegation has even been led by Shekarau to woo him and his responses do not connote one eager to join the new party.

What would you think went wrong?
Oshiomole is potentially the biggest asset the new party can wish for, can they afford to do without him?
He talked about selfish interest as a stumbling block to the success of the new party, which of the party's leaders do you think he referenced?

My personal opinion is that if the new party really wants a shot at the presidency, the only man they can position side by side the incumbent, Jonathan and expect to get near to victory is Oshiomole. And this is a function of nothing else but geography.


If you pick a northern candidate in the mould of Buhari and make Fashola or Tinubu his vice, majority of Southerners and Northern Christians would vote for Jonathan. Reason one, is that a Muslim Muslim ticket that has a perceived fanatical Muslim atop the ticket would be utterly unsellable. Even the South West would find that ticket hard to buy. Its only the core north, just like the last election that would give it votes.

If you put a South Western Muslim(Tinubu or Fashola) atop the ticket and select a Northern Muslim as vice, the core North and some good number of South Westerners would buy the ticket, but that would not give victory when you have the Northern Christians and the rest of the south supporting Jonathan.

But if you put Oshiomole atop the ticket with a northern Muslim as vice, he will steal two south south states(Edo & Delta) compulsorily from Jonathan, many South East voters would be comfortable with his candidature, the whole of the south west would support it, many Northern Christians would support the ticket and a huge population of northerners would go with him. The man speaks Hausa fluently, his parents are Muslims, he lived in Kaduna for much of his life, he was the chairman of the Textile workers, so with all these, wooing northern voters would be made easier for him.

Given the foregoing, can the new party afford to do without Oshiomole??

So all we have to do in Nigeria is find the most "comfortable" combination of religion for the presidential ticket, and we'll be in el-dorado?

Nigeria as an entity is the definition of madness i.e. doing the same things over and over again the same way and expecting a different result each time.

Wasn't that the same calculation that produced OBJ & Atiku, then Yar'Adua & GEJ - and still left Nigeria's stomachs empty!!!

How about we reform the structure of the nation so that no single person, no matter his religion or region, has enough power at the top to hold Nigeria down?

koruji: So all we have to do in Nigeria is find the most "comfortable" combination of religion for the presidential ticket, and we'll be in el-dorado?

Nigeria as an entity is the definition of madness i.e. doing the same things over and over again the same way and expecting a different result each time.

Wasn't that the same calculation that produced OBJ & Atiku, then Yar'Adua & GEJ - and still left Nigeria's stomachs empty!!!

How about we reform the structure of the nation so that no single person, no matter his religion or region, has enough power at the top to hold Nigeria down?

I tire my brother, make dem quick break up this nonsense called Nigeria next year.

peckhamboi:

I tire my brother, make dem quick break up this nonsense called Nigeria next year.

Lol that won't happen

koruji: So all we have to do in Nigeria is find the most "comfortable" combination of religion for the presidential ticket, and we'll be in el-dorado?

Nigeria as an entity is the definition of madness i.e. doing the same things over and over again the same way and expecting a different result each time.

Wasn't that the same calculation that produced OBJ & Atiku, then Yar'Adua & GEJ - and still left Nigeria's stomachs empty!!!

How about we reform the structure of the nation so that no single person, no matter his religion or region, has enough power at the top to hold Nigeria down?

Blablablablablabla. We know what Nigeria is and her problems, we don't need Professor Koruji to remind us. The OP just presented a realistic permutation highlighting the prospects of a candidate, do you agree or disagree? Don't bore us with your frustrations abeg.

@Topic, Oshiomhole remains the most underated politician in the country IMO, I don't know whether to attribute it to his pint size or his region. I agree Oshiomhole can be a joker in the hand of the opposition but somehow, he tends to be overlooked when the chips are down even though not a single ACN governor can stand shoulder to shoulder with him.

I have asked everyone that I know: Oshiomole versus Jonathan?

All say Oshiomole.

oshiomole is quite sellable and I agree with you op. The who APC thing is a tribal fraud. The crooks involved just want a SW President and A Nothern VP or vice versa which is laughable and many of Tinubu and Buhari's men are Muslims which is unworkabe. Fashola too is unsellabe. That is why the national clown governor, Rochas fooled himself by joining this laughable union.

Oshiomhole's seemingly cold feet towards the merger is not new. He is one man that is very skeptical about people's desire for power, hence He is not quick to jump into the whole APC dance song. Having said that, I do not think Oshiomhole is being overlooked as some have claimed. If anything, I think Oshiomhole is one of those in the books of APC to be considered for the slot of a VP.

Without any biase, it will be difficult for any party to sell Oshiomhole as a President material not because is not more than qualified to be a president, but more importantly is the reality on ground that right now, a northerner of high intellectual sagacity would help mend fences and create bett political stability for the much needed development in Nigeria.

I think a ticket with a Oshiomhole as running mate is sellable, who knows, APC might just end up with a grand plan of Buhari/Oshiomhole ticket for presidency and Fashola will be prep for Senate President where I believe He will be more relevant to Nigeria than being a President.

Enuf is enuf.4 d past 2 yrs av bin on nairaland,my comments hav neva appeared on d front page.av invited quite a no of people here,i wonder wat it takes 4 one's comments 2 get 2 d front page?do i nid 2 pay a certain amnt weekly,monthly or yearly?

wesley80:

Blablablablablabla. We know what Nigeria is and her problems, we don't need Professor Koruji to remind us. The OP just presented a realistic permutation highlighting the prospects of a candidate, do you agree or disagree? Don't bore us with your frustrations abeg.

@Topic, Oshiomhole remains the most underated politician in the country IMO, I don't know whether to attribute it to his pint size or his region. I agree Oshiomhole can be a joker in the hand of the opposition but somehow, he tends to be overlooked when the chips are down even though not a single ACN governor can stand shoulder to shoulder with him.

When I heard this merger, i hailed it because I want Nigeria to always have alternatives so whatever the ruling party is, they will not be complacent. But I am begining to see that they are not ready to challenge the PDP. The opposition never seems to learn. Nigerians will always vote based on certain interests. That is the fact! All the candidates they are peddling about are not going to unseat the PDP. It is just wishful thinking. Buhari can never win an election in Nigeria. Some funny chaps here keep saying Buhari will sweep northern votes. These folks have no clue about the north. Buhari can only sweeps states like katsina, zamfara, nassarawa and maybe Jigawa. He cant even sweep Sokoto state. The north is as divided as the south. Maybe even more divided. Just like the sunnis and shiites in the arab world. The hausa fulani and the kanuri dont always agree and Buhari is not a real unifying force.

Middle belt is totally out of the equation. Buhari cannot win middle belt vote. Souteast and south south are off his reach. South west will be split in 2 if he has fashola as running mate. Without fashola, he wont even get the 25% votes needed per state.

Fashola will not get the northern vote. Why? Because the core north's goal is to come back to power, not to have another Yoruba man in power. If they cant have their wish, they will not join the opposition. The core north never joins opposition except there is some kind of guarantee that the opposition will win. The north will always support the winning party at the center. He might get some support from the middle belt if he picks a christian VP but if he picks another muslim VP like El Rufai, he wont get nada from the middle belt. He will get nothing from the south east and south south. The only south east folks that will vote for fashola are some who have become Lagosians fully. but unfortunately, he has made himself their enemy by his utterances and actions.

For Rochas, he wont get the core north's support but he could get some middle belt support. He can get south east support. He wont get south south support as long as GEJ is contesting. But if you do the maths, he could be in contention.

Oshiomole will have about the same support spread as Rochas. He could also be in contention and maybe a little more in terms of north's support.

But one thing that makes me laugh about the new party supporters is their over hyped and over confident attitude which is based on a false sense of popularity. believe me when I say the new party news is only trending in Lagos and south west right now and on social media. The assumptions in Lagos is that when something appears as a news headline, then the whole country is talking about it. Very false assumptions that is!

Omo_Tier1: Oshiomhole's seemingly cold feet towards the merger is not new. He is one man that is very skeptical about people's desire for power, hence He is not quick to jump into the whole APC dance song. Having said that, I do not think Oshiomhole is being overlooked as some have claimed. If anything, I think Oshiomhole is one of those in the books of APC to be considered for the slot of a VP.

Without any biase, it will be difficult for any party to sell Oshiomhole as a President material not because is not more than qualified to be a president, but more importantly is the reality on ground that right now, a northerner of high intellectual sagacity would help mend fences and create bett political stability for the much needed development in Nigeria.

I think a ticket with a Oshiomhole as running mate is sellable, who knows, APC might just end up with a grand plan of Buhari/Oshiomhole ticket for presidency and Fashola will be prep for Senate President where I believe He will be more relevant to Nigeria than being a President.

What "cold feet"? You would do well not to fall for OP's deceit. He thrives in a narrow gap of deceit and subjective interpretation and that is why he can say preposterously that "Oshiomole is the biggest asset the new Party can wish for". This is just the usual attention-seeking mountain-out-of-molehill "spin and spell" he brings here consistently.

While I like Oshiomhole, I can predict any ambivalence from him in future will not be tolerated because individual grandstanding will be dangerous for the APC.

This is why the APC has been delivered early. To flush out and neutralise uncommitted, treacherous element so that positions can become harmonised and unity fostered well before 2014.

Oshiomhole is no "biggest asset" as the deceitful OP states. Far from it. In fact, Oshiomhole needs the merger and not the other way round. That much will become obvious to all Nigerians soon. Let us not forget that this same Oshiomhole alleged that the PDP made attempts on his life before the election and killed his "son".

Overall, and truth be told, the importance ascribed to the participation or non-participation of Oshiomhole is overblown by those who do not see what is obvious. The APC will grow to be beyond personalities because of the platform it was always going to be that must differ to what the PDP is. OP has a penchant for dubiously arrogating importance to people/ethnic groups he supports so I am not surprised he wants to now paints Oshiomhole as the pivot the APC floats or sink by. Arrant nonsense.

Oshiomhole is simply another complementary part of a merged entity that is far greater than him and, ultimately, can comfortably do without him . Nothing more, nothing less . This thread, propping up Oshiomhole as having a fail-or-succeed influence/role, comes out of OP's penchant for politics of notice 'my local champion' . Below is what the media adviser of Oshiomhole reveals about the stance of Oshiomhole. OP can continue insinuating otherwise and using mischief to taint the efforts of a merger those of us who know him here will understand he can never support and will be fully committed to undermining. Of all the very good things about the merger, Nigerians from all corners are waxing lyrical about, he has only held on to Oshiomhole's absence at the declaration meeting. What does that tell you about the OP?

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/oshiomhole-obi-differ-on-all-progressives-congress/139035/

Oshiomhole, Obi Differ on All Progressives Congress

10 Feb 2013

By Vincent Obia and Chuks Okocha

Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole was fully involved in the process leading to the formation of the opposition coalition party, All Progressives Congress, and is fully committed to its execution.

The governor's Special Adviser, Media, Prince Kassim Afegbua, who stated this, however, explained that Oshiomhole could not attend the meeting in Lagos last week by the opposition parties’ governors, where the merger was finally agreed, because of flight problems in Benin City.

Some opposition parties, namely, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), had come together last week in Abuja to proclaim the birth of APC.

But the governors produced by the opposition parties, numbering 10, including All Progressive Grand Alliance’s Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, had earlier in the week met in Lagos to pledge the backing of their various parties for the merger. Both Oshiomhole and Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State, who was elected on the APGA platform, were not at the meeting in Lagos.

The two governors were reported to have sent their goodwill messages to the merger promoters and expressed their commitment to the opposition alliance. But while Oshiomhole said he could not make the APC formation meeting in Lagos due to flight hitches, it emerged at the weekend that Obi had deliberately stayed away from the event.

Afegbua told THISDAY, “The Comrade Governor’s inability to attend the unveiling of the merger in Lagos was occasioned by the poor weather condition which made it impossible for flights to operate for two days in Benin City. That was the only reason that prevented him from attending the event.

“But he did speak with his Lagos State counterpart on the day of the unveiling to register his unflinching support for an initiative that will fully strengthen the pillars of competitive democracy in Nigeria
“It is the belief of the Comrade Governor that opposition forms an integral part of any healthy democracy, and especially so to the extent that the electorate are presented with viable alternatives in making their informed electoral choices.”

He said, “This merger is a wakeup call to all Nigerians who are desirous of seeing better approach to governance. It is an effort that symbolises the resolve of the people to take their destinies in their own hands, and move away from the culture of lamentation as a result of PDP misrule.

“The resolve by the opposition to put behind them their individual and collective aspirations, and midwife a platform that is all-embracing, presents to all lovers of democracy food for thought. It is commendable and admirable.

“Governor Oshiomhole will join others across the socio-political spectrum of the country to pursue the noble objectives for which the merger was consummated in the first place.”

If jonathan vs oshiobaba


Oshiobaba will clear south south 75%, south west 95%, south east 50%, middle belt 65%, the rest of the north 75%.

north

koruji: So all we have to do in Nigeria is find the most "comfortable" combination of religion for the presidential ticket, and we'll be in el-dorado?

Nigeria as an entity is the definition of madness i.e. doing the same things over and over again the same way and expecting a different result each time.

Wasn't that the same calculation that produced OBJ & Atiku, then Yar'Adua & GEJ - and still left Nigeria's stomachs empty!!!

How about we reform the structure of the nation so that no single person, no matter his religion or region, has enough power at the top to hold Nigeria down?

That is what the APC will try to offer but don't expect this highly mischievous and clannish OP to note that. Besides, how intelligent is his reasoning for postulating Oshiomhole's absence translate into lack of support for the merger? Let me spell it out for the clannishly emotional OP. Oshiomhole has nowhere to go supporting GEJ. That is a political dead end for him!!!!

Oshiomhole is on his last term as Governor. By his own admission, he has not exactly had it easy with the PDP who have compounded his efforts in Edo State virulently and murderously. By 2015 he will have one year to go as an outgoing Governor and there is a real chance the PDP could be going at the centre.

Sticking with the APC and defining himself as a committed player means anything (VP, Senate President etc) is possible for Oshiomhole.

In contrast, what can the badly divided and disunited PDP offer Oshiomhole either way? I.e Jonathan Presidential ticket or Northern Presidential ticket?

If Jonathan is competing then I don't need to point it out to anyone that "nothing for Oshiomhole" because he is from the same geo-political zone as GEJ, more or less, and will be incapable of dislodging anyone if/when he fully decamps to the PDP.

If a Northerner is competing, how will said Northerner find it expedient to ignore the Ameachis, Akpabios et al to draft in ACN decamped Oshiomhole?

What exactly, inspected pragmatically and without emotion, does supporting GEJ or the PDP achieve for Oshiomhole if not political suicide?

Oshiomhole needs the merger more than it needs him. Full stop. He is not anywhere near the 'beautiful bride' the sentimental OP is touting him to be. Oshiomhole, like everyone else, must get in line and show commitment or go and take his chances wherever he wants. Simple.