CFCfan:

That will be a repeat of 1999, when the then AD won all 6 SW states.

The irony is that GEJ's perceived dismantling of OBJ's political stature in the SW might end up biting him (GEJ) in the backside. The only way for PDP to regain relevance in the SW is for GEJ and the National PDP to flood OBJ with money in order to mobilize more PDP potential supporters.

You are correct about the likely effects of feuding with OBJ. PDP is never going to be relevant in the SW. A party formed tomorrow by graduates will do better than PDP. The only option for GEJ is to perform. He needs to up his game and reduce his incompetency/corruption.

saipn: Like i said earlier GEJ needs northerners vote to win 2015 election,and d shocking truth is that it will be very difficult because he can't get the same vote he got from them in the last election.Even middlebelt are tired of GEJ govt.the only solution for GEJ is massive rigging or else APC will win the next election

Totally agreed with you. Especially If he is to fall out with the likes Lamido, Babangida Aliyu and others who helped rig and delivered the northern votes last time, he is a gonner.
Then the only alternative is to rig the election, which won't be easy in the north without the northern elite.

And for those even thinking of such a thing as Igbo presidency (if there is ever such a thing) must not forget that the biggest obstacle to the so-called Igbo presidency ever is Jonathan 2015.

dayokanu:

If fashola is on the ticket its almost cetain to win at least 5 SW states.

because Fashola is the most Popular politician in the SW and almost top 5 in Nigeria.

he is loved by many Yoruba people and the face of ACN currently



Kats, I think GEJ would get over 25% in over 30 states but not enough to win. PDP has structures in all 36 states and he would be the incumbent president with incumbent powers.

Last election he got over 25% in over 30 states

You are probably right on the bolded. I did the sums incorrectly.

Eziachi:
Totally agreed with you. Especially If he is to fall out with the likes Lamido, Babangida Aliyu and others who helped rig and delivered the northern votes last time, he is a gonner.
Then the only alternative is to rig the election, which won't be easy in the north without the northern elite.

And for those even thinking of such a thing as Igbo presidency (if there is ever such a thing) must not forget that the biggest obstacle to the so-called Igbo presidency ever is Jonathan 2015.

That sort of rigging will be bad for all physically in Nigeria.

Katsumoto:

And how is GEJ going to garner 1/4 of the votes cast in 24 states? It is looking increasingly impossible for GEJ to win in 2015. No amount of 100% returns for GEJ in the SS/SS will give him victory.

For GEJ to think of winning, he has to up his game considerably. So far he has failed and the whole world is watching.

hahahahahah. . . GEJ does not have to be popular in the North to get the required votes, PDP has an unsurmountable structure that is rooted deep into the desert villages of the North. PDP has enough money to influence many of the voters and the polling officers. You need to witness elections in the core north first before drawing conclusions, PDP is so hugely popular there, abi you think say many of them that are employed by the PDP grassroot governments there will lose their jobs because they love Buhari, I dey laugh.

dayokanu:

The only thing between Buhari and an election win is the 6 SW states not the SE or the SS.

You can now see that the SE and SS can still give their 100% votes to Jonathan and still lose the election.

The trump card lies in how the SW votes.

Would the SW ignore a Ticket that has Fashola on it and vote for the PDP who we no send and who doesnt send us

Not actually the fact about the SW vote, because last time there vote was irrelevant to the outcome of the election. Unless there is a SW name on the ticket, because its a known fact that Yorubas never vote for anyone in Nigerian national election except one of their kind. That is why in 2011, they are as good as boycotting the election.

rhymz: hahahahahah. . . GEJ does not have to be popular in the North to get the required votes, PDP has an unsurmountable structure that is rooted deep into the desert villages of the North. PDP has enough money to influence many of the voters and the polling officers. You need to witness elections in the core north first before drawing conclusions, PDP is so hugely popular there, abi you think say many of them that are employed by the PDP grassroot governments there will lose their jobs because they love Buhari, I dey laugh.

You should keep laughing.

Eziachi:
Totally agreed with you. Especially If he is to fall out with the likes Lamido, Babangida Aliyu and others who helped rig and delivered the northern votes last time, he is a gonner.
Then the only alternative is to rig the election, which won't be easy in the north without the northern elite.

And for those even thinking of such a thing as Igbo presidency (if there is ever such a thing) must not forget that the biggest obstacle to the so-called Igbo presidency ever is Jonathan 2015.

PDP has noticed this too. The last thing OBJ, Atiku, Anenih etc want is to lose power. I mean with an opposition in power. See how irrelevant OBJ is in his hometown just because of Tinubu, Imagine if he doesnt have any Federal power to rely on. he would rather die the next day.

PDP top shots know this APC thing might work if Buhari and Tinubu ally together thats why they are trying to nip it in the bud

Their way is to kick out GEJ and replace him with Lamido-Amaechi at the convention. Should GEJ be the PDP nominee. then all hopes would be on GEJ to retain the seat

I have a feeling that on the election Night OBJ, Atiku, IBB, Anenih would be "monitoring events" from their abroad homes and ready to file asylum papers like Dikko wherever they are. They would rather have a foreigner rule than have Buhari there

Eziachi:

Not actually the fact about the SW vote, because last time there vote was irrelevant to the outcome of the election. Unless there is a SW name on the ticket, because its a known fact that Yorubas never vote for anyone in Nigerian national election except one of their kind. That is why in 2011, they are as good as boycotting the election.

Thats why Buhari including FASHOLA a recognised and respected Yoruba unlike the Bakare and Fola Adeola might be the trump card

rhymz: hahahahahah. . . GEJ does not have to be popular in the North to get the required votes, PDP has an unsurmountable structure that is rooted deep into the desert villages of the North. PDP has enough money to influence many of the voters and the polling officers. You need to witness elections in the core north first before drawing conclusions, PDP is so hugely popular there, abi you think say many of them that are employed by the PDP grassroot governments there will lose their jobs because they love Buhari, I dey laugh.

Don't kid yourself, how many of those votes are real votes or is it not stuffed ballot boxes by their elit?. Vast majority of them voted Buhari last time and will do it again irrespective of what INEC announced to us in 2011.
Jonathan need the northern establishment to control the ballot boxes as they did in 2011 and not your so-called money or the phoney grass root. And if the likes of Okorocha work with APC, the sort of 99% turnout they claimed in the SE last time won't be that straight forward again.

dafnna: in 2015, northerners will be desperate to pull back power to their region.
The opposition can never win the forth coming elections against PDP without the support of the north.
Let us not deceive ourselves. Jonathan is clearly not capable of translating Nigeria to the next level. His presence in Aso-rock shows the poor state of our electoral process. As a nigerian-canadian, i am baffled on how he got there and mindset of our people who voted for him, because i learnt the election was on average a bit free and fair.
APC, i will advice you nominate a Marwa OR Ribadu for president and fashola OR pat utomi for vice-president. PDP is the devil's tool against Nigeria, i speak from a spiritual angle.
my most preferred choice is Marwa/ fashola ticket. These two have performances above AVERAGE as governors of the most complex state (LAGOS).
A muslim-muslim ticket is not the issue now. Nigeria must move forward by getting rid of PDP.
I miss my country badly.I love you guys.

The only person from the North that can give GEJ a tough fight is Buhari, all these other people you are mentioning cannot win even 15% of the votes. Jonathan is already translating Nigeria to the next level, by the time you start having complete steady power supply in the next few months, I bet you 80% of people who are against Gej will change their mind, besides, that you can vote today and defend your is because of this same man.

dayokanu:

Thats why Buhari including FASHOLA a recognised and respected Yoruba unlike the Bakare and Fola Adeola might be the trump card

You voted OBJ in 2003, he was neither recognised or respected in Yoruba, but simply because he is one of you, and even willing to sacrifice AD in the process.
Got nothing to do with your so-called brilliance of Fashola you will make us to believe, just that Yoruba only votes their tribes men only in Nigerian national elections. Its no secret.

Na true..oooooo Fashola will increase school fees in Federal universities if he becomes the VP to buhari, we no go vote for him, he is too elitist and descriminates against poor people.

Eziachi:
You voted OBJ in 2003, he was neither recognised or respected in Yoruba, but simply because he is one of you, and even willing to sacrifice AD in the process.
Got nothing to do with your so-called brilliance of Fashola you will make us to believe, just that Yoruba only votes their tribes men only in Nigerian national elections. Its no secret.

But they didnt vote a ticket with Bakare or Fola Adeola in 2011 why?

Because those are not Politicians and people on the street barely know these guys compared to a Fashola who is popular and well loved

And where did you see "brilliance of Fashola" in my post? Does being "popular and respected" = Brilliant?

vanunu:

The only person from the North that can give GEJ a tough fight is Buhari, all these other people you are mentioning cannot win even 15% of the votes. Jonathan is already translating Nigeria to the next level, by the time you start having complete steady power supply in the next few months, I bet you 80% of people who are against Gej will change their mind, besides, that you can vote today and defend your is because of this same man.

Some of you makes me laugh, when has Nigerian ever voted because they get few more minutes of electric power that before, if not where he comes from and where he worships on Sunday or Friday?
You am sure that voted him in 2011, did you vote for him because he successfully climbed mount Everest, if not that his name sound closer to your than his opponent and that won't change till thy kingdom come.

dayokanu:

But they didnt vote a ticket with Bakare or Fola Adeola in 2011 why?

Because those are not Politicians and people on the street barely know these guys compared to a Fashola who is popular and well loved

And where did you see "brilliance of Fashola" in my post? Does being "popular and respected" = Brilliant?

Bakare is not one of the boys, neither the other person you mentioned. So in effect, people like you doesn't count them as real Yorubas worth wasting vote on. Remember that Tinubu and his group specifically requested that Buhari drop Bakare for their own Yoruba real choice and he said no, then they took GEJ's cash and boycotted the election. (in effect)

Fashola is popular and well loved because you told us so, because its what you guys and bias Lagos press does best, it nothing new. It doesn't mean that others share your respect/love him. This is Nigeria, you knew that more than me. Tribal affiliation is start and end.

rhymz: hahahah. . . Yeah I design but not in your league. It will take light years to understand the intricacies of my work, now shut up and go hang around Lawanson Ojuelegba road and collect Owo ilè and owo chairman for your slavemasters.

which work? Abeg park wel, mak u no just carry am go arab country o, i dey warn u!

Sorry for derailing a little, but this latest development could truly put the cats amongst the pidgeons with regards to the 2015 election:
http://odili.net/news/source/2013/mar/11/610.html

Eziachi:
Don't kid yourself, how many of those votes are real votes or is it not stuffed ballot boxes by their elit?. Vast majority of them voted Buhari last time and will do it again irrespective of what INEC announced to us in 2011.
Jonathan need the northern establishment to control the ballot boxes as they did in 2011 and not your so-called money or the phoney grass root. And if the likes of Okorocha work with APC, the sort of 99% turnout they claimed in the SE last time won't be that straight forward again.

Eziachi you are getting it all wrong. I served in Sokoto during the Elections and I participated as a PO, I know what I am talking about. It takes more than sentimental popularity like Buhari's to win an election. And trust me, there are a zillion ways to get votes in the interior parts of the northern states than flaunting some phantom popularity.
An average Hausa person in the village is an apologetic PDP lackey, many of them are employed by the PDP local councils and LGAs, they get paid monthly for doing nothing both being loyal.
If PDP should adopt Jonathan again with thesame PDP governors in most northern states agreeing to it, no jupita will prevent him from emerging the second time. You think it is mere conincidences that Buhari lost all his election bids 3times consecutively?
And anyone that thinks the southwest has any deciding factor is delusional. In the last election, what were the numbers coming out from the region?
Lagos with its huge population barely delivered a million votes which was about the highest votes fro, there meanwhile Jonathan got all the lead he needed from his own region by a staggering margin that got Buhari in tears. SW has little or no effect, the only deciding state there is Lagos, outside Lagos, it will be as usual in the core Yoruba states, people voting based on the fact that a Yoruba man is on the ticket, if that is not the case, then apathetic votes as usual. Besides, Lagos votes wont be decided by Yoruba alone, that is a fact that should not be veiled up like everyone in Lagos shares thesame sentiments with the Yoruba political leaning. Buhari needs to win in at least 21 states, the Eastern region already accounts for 11 from the available 36, if that is not a problem then you will be naive to think otherwise.
Buhari stands no chance abeg!

The level of ignorance displayed on this thread is quite nauseating.people are here counting states as if we are operating the american electoral system.All nigeria requires is majority of total votes cast provided you score 25% in @ least 24 states.A candidate can win in majority of the states and still loose the elections.All this talk of any zone been more important than the other is rubbish.
@dayoanku

I hope kadunna is not among your 19 states which you are giving to buhari

The tone of the election will be

SE/SS/MB vs NW/NE/SW zone wise it is balanced but who will win majority of the votes will carry the day.

Talking about majority of the votes we all know that the population of hausas/yorubas in the SS/SE is negligible compared to the population of igbos/SS in the yoruba and hausa states.we all saw that pattern in the last elections.

Buhari was winning 50-60% while Jonathan was winning 80-90%

Twist it,turn it ,dice it,the crying general can NEVER become Nigeria president again....

rhymz: Eziachi you are getting it all wrong. I served in Sokoto during the Elections and I participated as a PO, I know what I am talking about. It takes more than sentimental popularity like Buhari's to win an election. And trust me, there are a zillion ways to get votes in the interior parts of the northern states than flaunting some phantom popularity.
An average Hausa person in the village is an apologetic PDP lackey, many of them are employed by the PDP local councils and LGAs, they get paid monthly for doing nothing both being loyal.
If PDP should adopt Jonathan again with thesame PDP governors in most northern states agreeing to it, no jupita will prevent him from emerging the second time. You think it is mere conincidences that Buhari lost all his election bids 3times consecutively?
And anyone that thinks the southwest has any deciding factor is delusional. In the last election, what were the numbers coming out from the region?
Lagos with its huge population barely delivered a million votes which was about the highest votes fro, there meanwhile Jonathan got all the lead he needed from his own region by a staggering margin that got Buhari in tears. SW has little or no effect, the only deciding state there is Lagos, outside Lagos, it will be as usual in the core Yoruba states, people voting based on the fact that a Yoruba man is on the ticket, if that is not the case, then apathetic votes as usual. Besides, Lagos votes wont be decided by Yoruba alone, that is a fact that should not be veiled up like everyone in Lagos shares thesame sentiments with the Yoruba political leaning. Buhari needs to win in at least 21 states, the Eastern region already accounts for 11 from the available 36, if that is not a problem then you will be naive to think otherwise.
Buhari stands no chance abeg!

You are not wrong and I am not disputing your first hand/eye witness opinion. What I am saying is that a northerner will vote a northerner and religious affiliation first before anything else.
Remember that when it all stated in 1999, it wasn't PDP show, it was mainly ANPP before hand in the north. Because those in PDP now are formerly of ANPP pulling the strings that those you called lackey were following.

If they are to leave GEJ and follow APC or they decide to do a sidon look scenario unlike the last time they worked hard for him rig or win, his days at Aso Rock is numbered.
The problem sometimes with us southerners is this: that we always under estimate northerners all the time, because of our made up stereotype of them as foolish people, but in reality they are far from it. This people are no where near stupid we are programmed to believe.

Like I said before, Yoruba vote may not make any difference, just like last time, but if Jonathan is running in 2015, how he manage to bring the relevant people in the north is what will tip the scale. You can't judge anything based on the last last election that was massively inflated in the SE/SS and well rigged in many parts of north.

lacasa: Buhari/Fashola, Oshiomole or Rochas


Any one is confirmed Success

Up Progressives

Up APC

Unto 2015

Sorry it is Rochas and any other person as vice. Else GEJ all the way

chukwudi44: The level of ignorance displayed on this thread is quite nauseating.people are here counting states as if we are operating the american electoral system.All nigeria requires is majority of total votes cast provided you score 25% in @ least 24 states.A candidate can win in majority of the states and still loose the elections.All this talk of any zone been more important than the other is rubbish.
@dayoanku

I hope kadunna is not among your 19 states which you are giving to buhari

The tone of the election will be

SE/SS/MB vs NW/NE/SW zone wise it is balanced but who will win majority of the votes will carry the day.

Talking about majority of the votes we all know that the population of hausas/yorubas in the SS/SE is negligible compared to the population of igbos/SS in the yoruba and hausa states.we all saw that pattern in the last elections.

Buhari was winning 50-60% while Jonathan was winning 80-90%

So without being bias you don't know that Buahari will beat Jonathan any day or time in Kaduna in a every free and fair election?
Stop using the INEC result last time as a yardstick, we knew it was massively rigged

@Chukwudi: No one was using the American model; we were only predicting the likely 2015 outcome, based on the last elections and current realities. I was the one who reminded everyone of the constitutional requirement of garnering at least 25% of the votes cast in a minimum of 24 states.

Having said that, I predict that the 11 SS and SE states will be a no-go area for the APC, while the PDP might win just one of the 6 SW states.

chukwudi44: The level of ignorance displayed on this thread is quite nauseating.people are here counting states as if we are operating the american electoral system.All nigeria requires is majority of total votes cast provided you score 25% in @ least 24 states.A candidate can win in majority of the states and still loose the elections.All this talk of any zone been more important than the other is rubbish.
@dayoanku

I hope kadunna is not among your 19 states which you are giving to buhari

The tone of the election will be

SE/SS/MB vs NW/NE/SW zone wise it is balanced but who will win majority of the votes will carry the day.

Talking about majority of the votes we all know that the population of hausas/yorubas in the SS/SE is negligible compared to the population of igbos/SS in the yoruba and hausa states.we all saw that pattern in the last elections.

Buhari was winning 50-60% while Jonathan was winning 80-90%

In 2011 Buhari won in kaduna despite that Jonathan VP was from Kaduna

Where do you call Middle belt? the way some Nigerians shout Middle Belt. Do you realise places like Niger State, Nasarawa are in the Middle belt?

On this forum someone was saying that North doesnt allow Middle Belt to rule

yet the so called Middle belt has produced the president more than any region

Gowon - Plateau -9yrs, IBB Niger - 8yrs AbdulSalam - 1yr total 18yrs

Whereas the NE hasnt produced any in the last 45yrs

dayokanu:

In 2011 Buhari won in kaduna despite that Jonathan VP was from Kaduna

Where do you call Middle belt? the way some Nigerians shout Middle Belt. Do you realise places like Niger State, Nasarawa are in the Middle belt?

On this forum someone was saying that North doesnt allow Middle Belt to rule

yet the so called Middle belt has produced the president more than any region

Gowon - Plateau -9yrs, IBB Niger - 8yrs AbdulSalam - 1yr total 18yrs

Whereas the NE hasnt produced any in the last 45yrs

Good points.

Eziachi:
So without being bias you don't know that Buahari will beat Jonathan any day or time in Kaduna in a every free and fair election?
Stop using the INEC result last time as a yardstick, we knew it was massively rigged

Kadunna has almost 50% indigineous xtian population not to talk about the southerners living there.Kadunna would likely be. 50-50 case it is just too close to call

thelastPope:

This is one of the most idiotic post I have read on NL. You are soooooo dumb, you need help!

What nonsense sentimental crap are you spewing so? Who sat down and had what agreement? Are you talking about the same north that has ruled and squandered our collective wealth since 1967? You must be really dumb!

So when some thieving foools who stole our oil wells, sat down and decided how we should ruled, it becomes binding on us? I don't know what is wrong with some of you! Is it that your skull is just so thick or that you are paid to write this nonsense? Idiota!

Ahhhhhhhhh!, you are dealing with the wrong person, you are not fit to buckle my shoe.

You !, a paid laptop dog need to check a mirror, pause and take a long hard look at the mirror, what do you see? the image of an i-d-i-o.t surely reflects. Woe betide u. Never in your miserable life quote my post.

dayokanu:

In 2011 Buhari won in kaduna despite that Jonathan VP was from Kaduna

Where do you call Middle belt? the way some Nigerians shout Middle Belt. Do you realise places like Niger State, Nasarawa are in the Middle belt?

On this forum someone was saying that North doesnt allow Middle Belt to rule

yet the so called Middle belt has produced the president more than any region

Gowon - Plateau -9yrs, IBB Niger - 8yrs AbdulSalam - 1yr total 18yrs

Whereas the NE hasnt produced any in the last 45yrs

Niger is not middle belt.During the last election Buhari lost in the entire MB states of nassarawa,benue,plateau,kogi,taraba,kwara statees and come 2015 he will loose again.

I had to check the results of the lasts presidential elections and was very suprised to see that the Sw contributed just 2.47m out of GEJ's 22.4m votes with almost half of the votes comming from lagos that's so much for the so-called swing states.Even the kadunna state that buhari was with less than 60% of the votes

chukwudi44:

Niger is not middle belt.During the last election Buhari lost in the entire MB states of nassarawa,benue,plateau,kogi,taraba,kwara statees and come 2015 he will loose again.

Without those states Buhari still won 13 states. Right? Now add 6 SW states to it and see what you have. All Buhari needs from those Middle belt states are 25% of votes. Are you saying he wont get 25% in Nasarawa, Plateau, Taraba, Kwara and Kogi?

I had to check the results of the lasts presidential elections and was very suprised to see that the Sw contributed just 2.47m out of GEJ's 22.4m votes with almost half of the votes comming from lagos that's so much for the so-called swing states.Even the kadunna state that buhari was with less than 60% of the votes

Last election the SW wasnt interested in whatever was going on in the presidential election

Now throw in a Fashola and you still think the enthusiasm would be the same?. It would be more similar to the numbers given to Falae in 1999 and MKO in 1993

dayokanu:

Without those states Buhari still won 13 states. Right? Now add 6 SW states to it and see what you have. All Buhari needs from those Middle belt states are 25% of votes. Are you saying he wont get 25% in Nasarawa, Plateau, Taraba, Kwara and Kogi?


Last election the SW wasnt interested in whatever was going on in the presidential election

Now throw in a Fashola and you still think the enthusiasm would be the same?. It would be more similar to the numbers given to Falae in 1999 and MKO in 1993

Buhari got 25% in this MB states during the last elections and still lost the elections.It is not about getting just 25% of the votes like I said but rather simple majority. During the last elections GEJ got 22.4m votes while Buhari got 12 m votes.out of GEJ's 22m votes 2.4m votes came from the SW.even if we had a 100% improvement in the SW and they all vote for buhari while others vote as before GEJ would still win.This myth of SW swing votes would be rubbished during the next elections.They only contributed just 10% of GEJ votes during the last elections