jmaine: Brother Taharqa . . .I dey feel your rumble wella from afar . . .Abeg more fresh air releases . .Jor ooo !!!

ndu_chucks:

For once you are hailing legitimate success, as opposed to your usual almajiri praise singing. An improvement I must say.

ROSSIKE:

I think the simultaneous remodeling of 22 national airports is a sign of reduced corruption in the system. I'm looking at these newly, fabulously remodelled airports like Kano, Enugu, Benin etc and thinking, ''so where the hell was all the money going before this Jonathan govt came to power??'' I'm looking at the long abandoned railway system, suddenly roaring back to life, and estimated to cover something like 5 million passengers this year alone. And I'm thinking ''hang on a second.. where is this money coming from since we've been repeatedly told by past govts that there was no money to do these things?''

Meanwhile, road transport companies have filled the airwaves in an unprecedented endorsement of the federal govt highway reconstruction programme, that has seen thousands of miles of federal roads returned to perfect condition. Again leading one to think ''surely they can't be embezzling that much of our earnings if they're doing all this now with our money!''

Tintinix: Ok, my new favorite section would be the Business section then, cos instead of wasting mb on pointless debates, maybe I will also glean some ideas on how to take advantage of these great developments.

December 19, 2013 | Filed under: main story | Author: PATRICK ATUANYA

In about three weeks from now, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it will show that Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as Africa’s largest economy, which will have great economic and geopolitical implications.

This is according to emerging markets focused investment banking firm Renaissance Capital, whose team of analysts were in Abuja, over the weekend.

“We are revising up our estimate of Nigeria’s GDP by 53 percent. The NBS has nearly completed its work, and our new estimate is that a 45 percent to 60 percent uplift is likely, and we are taking 53 percent as the mid-point figure. We expect the data in January,” said Renaissance Capital analysts led by Charles Robertson, its global chief economist and head of macro strategy, in a research report released yesterday (Dec 18).

“This means Nigeria, at $405 bn in 2013 would be the largest economy in Africa, ahead of South Africa at around $370 bn.”

Other impacts of the rebasing include the possible reduction of growth rates to 5 – 6 percent from 6 – 7 percent, and an increase in GDP per capita to $2,400 from around $1,700, in essence moving Nigeria into middle income economy territory.

“Sectors that may show the biggest upward revision range from Nollywood to IT and telecoms, while we think agriculture will shrink from around 40 percent of GDP to 25 – 30 percent of GDP,” said Robertson.

The rebasing will show public debt shrinking to 13 percent of GDP from 20 percent of GDP. Public external debt would be below 2 percent of GDP, while the current account surplus may still be 5 percent of GDP which will leave the sovereign in a good position to borrow if needed.

According to Rencap “In a Fed tapering world, these revisions make Nigeria look good, but credit rating upgrades (Ba3/BB-) are likely to be constrained by the most competitive presidential elections Nigeria will have seen since democracy returned in the 1990s.”

The NBS is seeking to change the calculations of Nigeria’s GDP, using a new base year of 2010 to give a better indication of the size and composition of its economy.

Most governments overhaul GDP calculations every few years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as telecoms, financial services and internet usage, but Nigeria has not done so since 1990 (about 23 years) suggesting that the previous GDP framework underestimated economic activity.

The numbers will have new implications for investors and the geopolitics of Nigeria’s place in Africa.

“We would be very surprised if recent and pending investment decisions are taken on the basis of the 1990 national accounts,” said FBN capital research analysts led by Gregory Kronsten, in a note released in August.

“The new GDP series will however be tracked by potential investors, such as suppliers of consumer goods and services,” Kronsten said.

Nigeria already hosts the second largest debt and stock markets in Africa, behind South Africa.

Its stock market is valued at $77 billion, while the secondary market bond trading volumes, ”certainly exceed those of Egypt and Morocco and represent around 20 percent of South Africa’s turnover,” according to Samir Gadio, an emerging markets strategist, at Standard Bank, in London.

Overall – Nigeria’s debt, budget and current account ratios will look among the best in Africa and in the emerging markets (EM), once the rebased figures are released, notes Robertson.

“We like Nigeria in the coming quarter – though we see domestic bond yields up a little, at around 13.5 percent on average. Nigeria is going to rise from 14 percent of MSCI frontier markets to around 20 percent in May 2014 which could attract equity investors wanting exposure to frontiers and/or Africa. We expect the NGN to remain at 160/$ until June 2014. But we are still nervous for the second half of 2014,” Robertson said.

By: PATRICK ATUANYA
Businessday 12/19/2013

Growing health concerns in Nigeria about smuggled imported poultry have led to a 20 percent increase in local bird production in the last one year, boosting farmers earnings and creating more jobs in the local industry.

The poultry, mainly chicken, are now sold by large emerging super stores spread across urban centres. They are sold raw or smoked and are supplied directly or through distributors, by big agro companies such as Chi Limited, which have large farms and complimentary processing units.

Poultry-farmThe ready-to-cook chicken stock are supplied in modern packaging and are well preserved through continuous freezing, which supermarkets have the capacity to provide.

This, along with the hygienic environment of these retail shops, is driving up sales, in spite of the higher prices.

A smuggled imported frozen whole chicken for instance, is sold for between N700 and N1,200 depending on the size, while the locally produced frozen chicken goes for as high N1,650 or more, in the supermarkets.

This however is not deterring the growing league of high networth individuals who now have a habit of shopping for food in the supermarkets due to the assurance of hygiene, the beauty and safety of the environment, as well as safety of the environments and the benefit of available and free parking spaces.

This current growth was envisaged by the Nigeria Agribusiness Report in its third quarter 2011 edition, which predicted that between 2012 and 2015, due to rising living standards and expanding population, there would be an increase of about 23 percent growth in the poultry industry.

The prediction was based on increased government support, improved farming techniques and growing demand for poultry.

This increased demand for wholesome poultry stock by the middle class has been spurring business expansion among existing poultry producers, and also stimulating new investments.

Though there have been crises in the industry due to security challenges in the north of Nigeria, which led to lower demand for eggs from there, the growing middle class, their changing tastes and health concerns have spurred demand in the southern parts. Chickens and eggs are even being branded by producers as an assurance of quality.

Quail farming, another form of poultry, (a bird which is adjudged by health experts to be very beneficial healthwise, as it is very nutritious and does not contain cholesterol) is adding to the boom in the industry.

Also, the Nigeria Customs Service, in response to outcries of stakeholders and the efforts of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, has increased the interception and destruction of smuggled poultry products.

Dotun Agbojo, president of the Poultry Association of Nigeria, Lagos Chapter (PANLAG) recently in Lagos said from the beginning of the year to date, the customs have seized over N500 million worth of poultry products from smugglers. Agbojo urged the service to intensify its’ efforts. He drew attention to the health hazards, stating that smugglers went as far as hiding poultry in fuel tankers. The Nigeria Customs Service and other stakeholders have also at various times, pointed out the health hazards involved in the consumption of smuggled poultry.

A representative of the National Agency for Food, Drug, Administration and Control (NAFDAC) I. Sanni, during a recent poultry show held in Lagos, observed that the cold chain is usually broken during the transportation of the imported poultry.

At such times, he said, microbes begin to work on the meat. Subsequently, they may be kept in freezers again if they make it to the Nigerian market, but they expose unsuspecting buyers to health hazards.

Kola Oyedeji, a chemist and farmer, said the smuggled poultry is usually preserved from spoilage with formaldehyde, the same chemical used in mortuaries to preserve corpses. This, he said, exposes consumers to carcinogenic substances which predisposes people to cancer.

There are however still a lot of challenges experienced by producers in the country. These include high cost of input, and infrastructure challenges. But the domestic poultry industry as predicted by a 2011 Nigeria Agribusiness Report, is growing. Onallo Akpa, an executive of the Poultry Association of Nigeria (PAN) estimates commercial production at N51.2 billion (US$3.2billion) and rural family production at N320 billion, with 553,000 metric tonnes of eggs and 708,000 metric tonnes of broiler meat being produced as at 2011.