The 53 post-independence years of Nigeria’s political history have witnessed a few catastrophic events that have threatened her very existence as a nation. But this country colonised by the British and forced together by Lord Lugard in his 1914 amalgamation which brought together two strange bedfellows under a marriage of convenience has always teetered on the edge of the precipice. Since the decade after independence in 1960 and many years after, the country has not had a moment of respite from elements in the union who have constantly threatened separation with devastating consequences. Since independence, Nigeria’s stormy socio-political history has shown that perhaps it was a bad idea to have brought together disparate ethnic behemoths that have nothing in common. Little wonder that shortly after the British left, cracks that revealed the mistake of 1914 began to emerge. Even the action and utterances of political players from both sides of the divide have constantly reminded us that the union may not end a story book ‘’happy ever after’’ fairytale. Nonetheless, Nigeria has survived 53 tragic years in a union sustained by the blood of citizens.

The struggle for political dominance among the major ethnic groups in the first decade of independence culminated in the civil war. That bloody era in Nigeria’s chequered history was perhaps the greatest threat to the country’s unity. But more tragedies were to follow. Most of the threats that revealed the farce of Lugard have been the result of the struggle for power among the major ethnic groups and their political elites. But it is not only politicians that have pushed the country to the brink. The military, which ruled Nigeria for most of its post-independence years, has also caused tensions through its violent obsession with power. The coup and counter-coups were the catalysts in this deadly power game. The coups and subsequent power play among the military elite created widespread mistrusts and suspicion among the nation’s ethnic groups. For example, the dominance by Northern military officers was the reason why their Southern counterparts have complained of political dominance by the North in recent years.

The deep mistrust created by Northern dominance of political power during the military years led to the Gideon Orkar’s bloody coup of 1990. The coup planned and executed by mostly minority officers almost put paid to the union. The coup sought to forcefully excise some parts of the North from the entire country. That coup heralded Niger Delta agitation for resource control which later turned violent many years after. The Orkar coup also revealed that the ghost of ethnic mistrust which nearly tore the country apart with the civil war had not been laid to rest after all. But the Ibrahim Babangida administration which was the target of the coup brutally suppressed it by executing many of its masterminds. However, the grievances were not addressed. Now the agitation for resource control which was at the heart of the violent coup is one of the reasons this union may soon hit the rock. Three years after the Orkar’s coup, Babangida who had taken the country on a political merry go-round did the unimaginable. His annulment of the June 12 election won by the late business mogul, M.K.O. Abiola threw the country into turmoil. The violence and tension that followed threatened the country’s unity. There were insinuations at the time that the North as represented by the military establishment wanted to perpetuate hegemony over the rest of the country. There were calls by Nigerians that the country should break up once and for all. Politicians also led the agitation for the country to split if the annulment was not reversed. Again, one could imagine a tragic replay of the events that led to the civil war. I personally witnessed Nigerians who pack their belongings and travel to their ethnic bases.  Even when Babangida and his cabal pushed the country to the brink the country held on-albeit on a thin rope. The brutality and repression of the Abacha years and the scheming to make him a life president brought Nigeria to another political standstill. The country became a pariah nation. The cry to divide the nation grew louder. But still the country held on. Nigeria was saved from an imminent collapse by the sudden death of Gen. Sani Abacha. Several years after the military left, power struggle among the nation’s major ethnic groups has heightened tensions in the country.

The 2011 presidential election that produced the incumbent President again brought Nigeria to the edge.  Now, the race for 2015 has yet again opened up the possibility of a split.  There are serious reasons to believe that President Goodluck Jonathan may be Nigeria’s last president. Those so-called nationalists who have expressed optimism that this country may yet pull through another violence engendered by power struggle do not appreciate the extent of the dynamics of power play that is at the heart of Nigeria’s political trajectory. Ethnic mistrust has been amplified over the years by the country’s political elite. It may reach a crescendo in 2015. Now, the die seems to have been cast.  And this is not even about the rivalry between the opposition parties. This is about one zone’s quest to reclaim power by all means necessary. It is also about the struggle to control the nation’s oil resources. Even if the split does not happen in 2015, the year may be the beginning of an end. It is not conspiracy theory that the US-National Intelligence Council had predicted Nigeria’s split. The fears are real.

Now, President Jonathan is set to seek a re-election even though he has yet to publicly declare so. The North is enraged by this. That it has been out of power for this long is irritating enough for the zone’s oligarchs. For them, it will be unthinkable that they may not have power in 2015 (or even beyond). Their agitation is already heating up the polity. Already, some of the zone’s politicians have begun to sound the drumbeats of war. But in the Fourth Republic, other ethnic groups seem to have found a voice in collectively challenging the North’s dominance of power since independence. That is why the minority groups of the Niger Delta has said Jonathan must continue beyond 2015. The Ijaw seem to have “wise-up” and cannot imagine the situation where another ethnic group will return to power and control ‘’their oil’’. This will be a major divisive factor in 2015 and beyond.

Personally, I see the struggle for resource control as a factor in Nigeria’s probable collapse. Beyond the power struggle that may make Jonathan Nigeria’s last president, the incumbent seems to have lost control of the country. Many have accused his presidency of deliberately whipping up ethnic mistrust. Add this to Boko Haram, insecurity, massive corruption, and uncontrolled oil theft and the picture of an imminent crack becomes visible.

Intelligent and thoughtful analysis.

And u expt me 2 read all ds

Just like i always do read the first4 lines check how long it is if long then skip to the bottom and read the last 4lines cause thats what i did to dis

HEHEHE MY SOUTH-WEST BROTHERS GO SOON START DEY W.E.T THEIR UNDIES

LET NAIJA DIVIDE

Much cannot be said yet. The national confab will determine if the name Nigeria is staying or not.

Resource control... amid all the tantrums coming especially from the north and south-south, why do I think the south west is unperturbed? Just thinking out loud

fdigital: Much cannot be said yet. The national confab will determine if the name Nigeria is staying or not.

The confab was conceived in deceit by a GEJ administration inhaling its dying gasps
This much the writer alluded to here

the incumbent seems to have lost control of the country. Many have accused his presidency of deliberately whipping up ethnic mistrust.

If GEJ had altruistic motives, the confab should have come in 2011/2012
Now the sh*t is really about to hit the ceiling in that country called Nigeria

Yes, Jonathan will be the last President of Nigeria and the first President of the New Biafra.

Death to Nigeria!
Long live Biafra!

Interesting...