The Abuja project looks like it's grinding to an unfortunate premature halt with Lagos is taking off full force. Why?


Abuja is an artificial city. Human beings from the beginning of time have created cities for various economic reasons because a city is essentially an economic enhancement mechanism. When a city is build without an economic purpose, it becomes and artificial city. Anything you add to this corpse is essentially lipstick on something that will be soon buried. Lagos on the other hand is the exact opposite. Lagos is pure hustle, pure capitalism and pure economy. It will outlive Nigeria and host many nations to come because it serves a human demand; economic enhancement.



Abuja during El Rufai made a mistake. Because it was a 'planned city', it began weeding out the things it didn't plan for. petty traders, hustlers, unplanned housing, etc. By kicking out these nuisences, it gutted out the seeds of what could have been a real economy. In a healthy environment, every city goes through 3 phases


1. establishment- typically men live there. The people that live there as settlers seldom claim the place as 'home'. They're simplying using it's economic advantage to their benefit and in doing so set up businesses. They don't bring their families b3. ecause there's no lifestyle in the city, simply business. In this phase you see traders, working class workers establish.

2. High settlement- When the economic activities of these settlers sustains an economy there comes a flood of settlers. This is the hardest phase in a cities life to manage. The settlers are still primarily male. They come with their cultures and alliances but no or little alliance to the city it's self. They fight each other for territory and various macho pursuits. Crime is rampant because where there's a large gathering of men it's inevitable. A few women will come in to capitalize on the influx of men but they're going to FIRST be traders or prostitutes. The flooding of people overwhelms the cities facilities. Police, sanitation, government, schools etc are all overwhelmed and can't keep up with the speed of incomers. Many, because they were brought to simply work for an established relative, neglect school. Slums build up, and petty trades which in the nigerian case involve containers, slums, okadas etc come to dominate

3. Civilization- note the world civilization means to make one a member of Rome (a civil). It takes 1 generation in a mid sized city, and 2-4 generations in a mega city to reach this phase. This is when the settlers have had children and their children have gained a loyalty to the city that rivals their parents loyalty to their place of origin. Their parents themselves have been there long enough to call it home because their time there out weighs their time 'back home'. They begin demanding the things that make life comfortable and make the place 'home'. Government now has more cooperation from civilians and they thus gain the power to start taking control of the city again. Branding it, cleaning it up, and making assertive demands over the settlers to civilize. In this phase, which can last as long as it may take for the people to be comfortable, you can start kicking out the settler industries in order to make the city more livable at the expense of it's economic viability. World class brands will be attracted to the population, and will begin buying properties that will push the settlers to the edges of the city or trap them in a particular part (ghettos).

Like you said yourself, Abuja is an artificial city without a soul or culture while Lagos has loads of it. It's the people that make Lagos what it is while the government makes Abuja what it is.

bad management allowed Lagos to go through all the phases in a natural way with little to no government interference. Abuja on the other had killed off it's initial settler phase because in the short term the activities of these settlers is a 'bad' thing. Abuja is now a giant suburb for government officials. When all the government officials are settled, that will be the end of the story. Businesses struggle to survive in Abuja because patronage is so rare and red-tape so overwhelming. Abuja needs to relax it's regulations and allow its self to naturally go through the high settler phase in order to become a city as opposed to an endless drain on government resources. Today if the oil price drops to below 40 a barrel Abuja will cease to exist. This isn't a stat I made up, it has been cited on many economic publications and investors know this. Lagos on the other had will live.



A city that is making similar mistake to Abuja are Owerri
Livability in Owerri is higher than Onitcha, or Abas, but in the future, Onitcha and Aba will surpass Owerri even in livability IF owerri doesn't end it's restrictions on containers and okadas. The reason is because Owerri is trying to forcefully end it's settler phase prematurely like Abuja. These okada drivers and container owners will have children that are loyal to Owerri, they will demand it be built up and will build it up because it's what they know. short term livability isn't the goal, let the poor in to engage in their activities, they will have great children that will sanitize the city naturally when the time is right.


Most of North Nigeria is stagnated, which isn't up for debate but the Sabon Gari culture of the cities is making matter worst. It will soon turn the settlers into the masters of the city because settlers bring an influx of economic activity that indigines don't. The Sabon Garis are already the economic nerve centers of northern cities, they will soon naturally start sanitizing themselves and will develop into the modern wings of northern cities, which will ironically exclude most northerners.


In the west you see Lagos entering the civilization phase. As Lagos sanitizes, cities like Ibadan, Abeokuta, Akure, and Oshogbo will be more attractive to these settlers and they will begin their own high settler phases. They are about to face more problems than ever before because the gates of Lagos civilizing and consequently closing are going to make them more attractive destinations to ambitious men (settlers). They already have gone through these phases but it's a cycle and they're about to witness another round that will eventually modernize them



they and the rest of Nigeria must remember that all types of citizens, rich and poor, are an asset.

Ikengawo, if you dont have meriting topic to write on please dont open just to make noise.

Cities are setup for various reasons. Not all cities are created to serve as commercial point of exchange. There is ground to compare Abuja and Lagos. Abuja is administrative, period!

Mayor_of_Lagos: Ikengawo, if you dont have meriting topic to write on please dont open just to make noise.

Cities are setup for various reasons. Not all cities are created to serve as commercial point of exchange. There is ground to compare Abuja and Lagos. Abuja is administrative, period!

You're right. It's administrative but when you start building the best stadium, moving headquarters of companies, pumping billions on dollars on Abuja then the it being an administrative city holds no water.

Afam4eva:
You're right. It's administrative but when you start building the best stadium, moving headquarters of companies, pumping billions on dollars on Abuja then the it being an administrative city holds no water.

No doubt! Those that are reinforcing its commercial status ought to be reprimanded, not Rufai who wanted to leave its administrative status undiluted.

Mayor_of_Lagos:

No doubt! Those that are reinforcing its commercial status ought to be reprimanded, not Rufai who wanted to leave its administrative status undiluted.

Nigerian leaders don't understand what it means for a city to be administrative. They should take a cue from America where the biggest and most prestigious cities are not usually the capital city. Most people would think that Baltimore, Miami, Los Angeles and Chicago are the capital of Maryland, Florida, California and Illinois respectively but that's not the case. In America, one thing they take into cognizance when citing a capital is security and the ease of the city but here in Nigeria, a capital city must be commercial, if it's not commercial, they will pump most of the resources of the state or country to make it look better than other towns and cities and i think that's a wrong mindset. I don't think Abuja should have been given so much importance thereby making people to even start comparing it to Lagos or other cultural cities. In America, no ine mentions Watshinton DC among the top US cities.

What happens when an unreasonable bulk-worth of Nigeria's collective resources go into keeping Abuja alive when they could have went into actual administration? In America EVERY city is self sufficient in taxes. Every city pays for it's self, even the administrative cities and they give to allocations from their taxes to the federal government. In Nigeria the fed give them allocations, so you can't compare the two. As it stands, Abuja only exists if the price of oil remains above 40pb. If the price of anything in the world changes, Houston texas and the state capital Dallas will still live.

Is Dallas completely devoid of classes and diversity? No, and Abuja doesn't need to be either. An elitist suburb is not sustainable and is costing Nigeria more money than Nigeria benefits from it. How can we speak of federalism and desire for some cities to be economically inactive at the same time? No city in America is an economic drain or corpse and no administration in America designed any city, administrative or not, to be so, so your comparison is inaccurate.

Mayor_of_Lagos: Ikengawo, if you dont have meriting topic to write on please dont open just to make noise.

Cities are setup for various reasons. Not all cities are created to serve as commercial point of exchange. There is ground to compare Abuja and Lagos. Abuja is administrative, period!

Were Lagos and Calabar not administrative? You've completely and clearly missed the point. Stop thinking in terms of the Nigerian body-politic and start thinking about the human race and economics that don't change regardless of whether goodluck jonathan has labeled one city an 'administrative city' and another city a 'commercial city'. All cities need administration and all cities need commerce, it's only in Nigeria that some cities are discouraging commerce and wondering why 'the government won't creates jobs for deh yootz"

Ikengawo: The Abuja project looks like it's grinding to an unfortunate premature halt with Lagos is taking off full force. Why?


Abuja is an artificial city. Human beings from the beginning of time have created cities for various economic reasons because a city is essentially an economic enhancement mechanism. When a city is build without an economic purpose, it becomes and artificial city. Anything you add to this corpse is essentially lipstick on something that will be soon buried. Lagos on the other hand is the exact opposite. Lagos is pure hustle, pure capitalism and pure economy. It will outlive Nigeria and host many nations to come because it serves a human demand; economic enhancement.



Abuja during El Rufai made a mistake. Because it was a 'planned city', it began weeding out the things it didn't plan for. petty traders, hustlers, unplanned housing, etc. By kicking out these nuisences, it gutted out the seeds of what could have been a real economy. In a healthy environment, every city goes through 3 phases


1. establishment- typically men live there. The people that live there as settlers seldom claim the place as 'home'. They're simplying using it's economic advantage to their benefit and in doing so set up businesses. They don't bring their families b3. ecause there's no lifestyle in the city, simply business. In this phase you see traders, working class workers establish.

2. High settlement- When the economic activities of these settlers sustains an economy there comes a flood of settlers. This is the hardest phase in a cities life to manage. The settlers are still primarily male. They come with their cultures and alliances but no or little alliance to the city it's self. They fight each other for territory and various macho pursuits. Crime is rampant because where there's a large gathering of men it's inevitable. A few women will come in to capitalize on the influx of men but they're going to FIRST be traders or prostitutes. The flooding of people overwhelms the cities facilities. Police, sanitation, government, schools etc are all overwhelmed and can't keep up with the speed of incomers. Many, because they were brought to simply work for an established relative, neglect school. Slums build up, and petty trades which in the nigerian case involve containers, slums, okadas etc come to dominate

3. Civilization- note the world civilization means to make one a member of Rome (a civil). It takes 1 generation in a mid sized city, and 2-4 generations in a mega city to reach this phase. This is when the settlers have had children and their children have gained a loyalty to the city that rivals their parents loyalty to their place of origin. Their parents themselves have been there long enough to call it home because their time there out weighs their time 'back home'. They begin demanding the things that make life comfortable and make the place 'home'. Government now has more cooperation from civilians and they thus gain the power to start taking control of the city again. Branding it, cleaning it up, and making assertive demands over the settlers to civilize. In this phase, which can last as long as it may take for the people to be comfortable, you can start kicking out the settler industries in order to make the city more livable at the expense of it's economic viability. World class brands will be attracted to the population, and will begin buying properties that will push the settlers to the edges of the city or trap them in a particular part (ghettos).

What is the point of this thread

intelligent assessment.

would you rather we talk about Sullivan's wife? In a country where our intellectually are calling people shepoptoamus I would feel such a thread would be appreciated.

I don't think El Rufai wanted to end commerce in Abuja; he only wanted to instill a sense of order in the city. Eliminating street hawking, and demolition of illegal structures were part of the plan.

Even Austin (Texas) and Washington DC administrators do not encourage illegality in the name of 'economic diversity'.

of course El Rufai didn't want to end commerce but he dealt it a huge blow, indirectly and accidentally.
In the US a small business man has been to a strong educational system, can get access to loans, and the economy is so diversified that you can go into a wide range of activities. The average nigerian hustler can't get loans, probably doesn't own property, and doesn't live in a country with diverse economy that he/she can take advantage of, though this part is changing. Even in the US, when New York was in it's high settler phase



You can see people hawking, a lot of disorder and chaos, If not for archtechture, the picture above can be sold as Onitsha. You can't compare the economic realities of the US today to that of Nigeria today because Nigeria is developing and the US is developed. If you want to be accurate and produce information from your assessment compare developing nigeria to developing america. Austin Texas once had slums hawkers and petty merchants dominating the city.

There's truth in your write up. But that's a very old approach to city development. In this modern age, just like you can be in dubai in a few minute so can a city be designed on a table and built on ground within few years. Abuja is no doubt the best planned city in nigeria. Quite close to what a civilised city should look like. Unlike lagos that passed through the typical phases you mentioned. What it is costing lagos state govt and the public to clean up the effect of poor planning could have been averted.
Have you heard of any of such 'artificial' cities that collapsed. As a matter of fact the so called 'artificial' cities pass through those phases you listed but they do so in a planned and organised manner. If not for corruption abuja should have been able to sustain itself by now.
Talk of eko atlantic in lagos, centenary city in abuja or golf city in enugu, are you saying these cities will not function properly unless they are allowed to pass through those phases. That means the time they are completed, humans would have moved to another level of developing cities in space.
the truth is that these cities are designed to sustain itself. Am happy the FCT minister realised the deviation from the plan before it got out of hand. In fact, alot of big building still standing now in abuja will go down should the abuja master plan be strictly followed.

My problem with nigerian leaders is over concentration on the capital. To me every town and villages should be planned alalongeside main city. I dont see the reason why kwali in abuja shouldnt have good water system when abuja main city is flourishing, or why udo in edo shoudnt have good roads while benin city is been flooded with roads or why ngwo in enugu shouldnt have fire service when its in excess in enugu city.

Cen. City and Eko Atlantic can't be counted are artificial cities because they're extensions to cities with high demand for upper class residential and business facilities that haven't previously been met.

China's ghost cities are a perfect example of cities that fail because they have no economic backing outside of someone utopian idea. Dubai is only spoken about today because it's new and shiny. As it stands Dubai will never be London, New York, Frankfurt, or Tokyo in economic importance. It's a giant disneyland for rich people and most importantly produces absolutely nothing. It's merely and example of what one man chose to spend his oil earnings on. Dubai is a hollow edifice, devoid of culture or value and presents no reward to the person living inside of it outside of the initial 'wow' factor. Once you pay 100 USD for a 10 minute taxi you will realize that the city's livability is garbage. If your not a hedgefund owner or saudi prince, it's not a place that can sustain your life.

It's a lot like Abuja in that sense, just bigger and more grotesquely material. Nothing there means anything to anyone. If you look at NY, not even .001% of the buildings in that city are built by the government, but it dominates the world. Abuja and Dubai are government projects that will die at the end of government patronage. Note that governments go bankrupt. Note that governments switch priorities. Note that funding can get tight. In case of war will we still spend such an offensive amount of government funds building flats for senators?

Ikengawo: of course El Rufai didn't want to end commerce but he dealt it a huge blow, indirectly and accidentally.
In the US a small business man has been to a strong educational system, can get access to loans, and the economy is so diversified that you can go into a wide range of activities. The average nigerian hustler can't get loans, probably doesn't own property, and doesn't live in a country with diverse economy that he/she can take advantage of, though this part is changing. Even in the US, when New York was in it's high settler phase



You can see people hawking, a lot of disorder and chaos, If not for archtechture, the picture above can be sold as Onitsha. You can't compare the economic realities of the US today to that of Nigeria today because Nigeria is developing and the US is developed. If you want to be accurate and produce information from your assessment compare developing nigeria to developing america. Austin Texas once had slums hawkers and petty merchants dominating the city.

What are u harping on about bouncing from pillar to post? What is ur point exactly?

Iken, the key word here is self sustenance. Such city grow over time to sustain itself, and can function smoothly with little or no input from govt.
it hurts me to see demolition of structures in the name of cleaning up a city. Such huge economic loss could be avoided. What el rufia did in FCT was just a clean up, which was need. How many govt building was demolised then? They were private building, private estates, that will tell you the city growth is still in the hands of the public.
There alot of things that make a city, power, natural resources, tourism, commerce and so on. Abuja is thick because of power but over time it can sustain itself even without the power
I agree with you that abuja is a rich man's land but its not perculiar to abj...its a general problem in nigeria where we have a very wide gap between the rich and the poor with tiny middle class in between.

I don't know the bases for this thread. In my opinion, I feel the OP is comparing Abuja and Lagos. Well, I think such comparison is wrong. Abuja is the only organised city in the country. Most things work there (water, good road network, semi-contant power supply etc). Lagos on the other hand is a menace, an eye sore and a dump pit. Lagos ranks amongst the worst cities to live.