POLITICAL RAGE AND BARELY SECRET ARMS “RACE” IN NIGERIA
--Attorney Patryk Utulu

Even political sophisticates (those that through education, politics, social status or circumstances of age understand how the world works) are likely to think of Arms Race mainly as un-friendly contest or rivalry between nations bent on gaining military superiority by having the best armed forces through acquisition of advanced weaponry and better military technologies. The 1945-1990 Cold War between the Warsaw Pact (led by USSR) and NATO Alliance (led by USA) remains the clearest modern example.

But arms race WITHIN nations is the rising and much more dangerous trend!

The ‘within-nation’ arms race is so volatile because even the smallest incidence can trigger a circle of killing and revenge killing, especially in the era of cell phones and Facebook. Civil Wars are uniquely dangerous as a citizen can suddenly find himself on “the wrong side” of what used to be his/her country. Strategic global research shows that after civil war, people can’t even agree on “the one thing” that started it. But detailed study of (factional) Palestinian Civil War 1947-1948, (political) Congo Crisis 1960-1966, (tribal) Nigerian Civil War 1967-1970, (diamond cartel) Sierra Leone Civil War 1991-2002 and (ideological) Mozambique Civil War 1975-1992 strongly indicate that original grievances hardly ever tip nations from instability to outright civil wars until secret arms race reached points where each side feels confident that they have enough weapons to resist or prevail over their adversary.

For example, (sectarian) Lebanese Civil War 1975-1990 resulted from years of arms race among coastal Sunnis, southern Shias and Christian government forces. Also, on-going conflicts in Colombia (since 1964), Syria (since 2011) and to some extent in Libya (since 2011) did NOT descend into civil war until all sides had enough arms or “promise of arms” to presume easy victory.

So it is with the heaviest of hearts that I now note that Nigerians have commenced serious arms race!

In haste or hesitancy, NIGERIANS ARE FAST ARMING THEMSELVES! The Nigeria Police Force and Military remain dominant – and still have the edge of organized reinforcement – but they are no longer the only armed groups. Like citizens of nations at this stage of journeys to civil war, Nigerians are beginning to perfect individual and group “justifications” for arming themselves. Here are some of the reasons:
(1): Can’t trust NPF and must protect ourselves because armed robbers are operating with impunity.
(2): If politicians and their thugs are getting armed why shouldn’t law-abiding citizens?
(3): Kidnappers come to people’s homes to drag them out unless those citizens arm themselves.
(4): Currently living in Adamawa-Borno-Yobe, and feeling threatened by both Boko Haram and JTF.
(5): Need to protect our oil wealth from those who steal it under the color of authority.
(6): Citizens must level the “balance of terror” or home "invaders" will have monopoly of violence.
(7): Need to arm ourselves to ensure “pockets” of secured zones in case of total instability or breakup.

These are some of the reasons people are telling themselves and one another for stock-piling arms from Cameroun, Niger and the Middle East. Politics is disputatious so fallouts are inevitable. Smart nations fight at the ballot boxes. Current political rage and not-so-secret arms race in Nigeria is radioactive. Stable nations have the stupid tendency of being addicted to other nations’ revolutionary violence. But revolution is cool only as long as you are reading about it while eating breakfast. A modern civil war is like Bulldogs fighting under the rug in the dark. No one comes out of the fight without serious damage.

Beware Nigerians! No one wins a civil war. Few modern nations ever truly survived a second Civil War!

Patryk A. Utulu is a U.S.-based attorney and Strategic Communications Consultant
Executive Director, The Center for Community Empowerment and Lifeskills, Inc.
[All Rights Reserved 01042014. Copyright Privileges and Immunities Apply]

Well said. We are considering the ballot option this time around. Still, we may have to go there armed to the teeth to prevent NPF and INEC from rigging the ballots.

Nigerians should legally own firearms.
We all know that the emergency system does not work in Nigeria, if a kidnapper comes to your home to rob and kidnap, the only thing that can deter him is a shot fired, even into the air. In the 1980s, armed robbery and violent crimes were somehow at bay because most homes that i knew of had at least a double barrel gun.

Today, it is harder to purchase a firearm through approved dealers,except you are an armed robber to buy from the black market. We should license Nigerian dealers to legally sell non-offensive firearms to law abiding citizens who simply need to have some protection against armed robbers and other violent criminals invading their homes.