My fellow Nigerians, do you think it is possible for there to be another coup in Nigeria? And if so, what scenarios would you think would be enough for a coup to take place.

Note, I am not in support of coups. I have never said anything favorable about military rulers, not even the ones like Muritala that are well regarded by many Nigerians.

I just want to read the pulse of the people. And lastly, will you accept a regime that gains power from a coup?

LOL, Afeni. The part I like the most about your new thread is how you go "My Fellow Nigerians,"

Which is it:

1. A secessionists change of heart?
2. A pun on the popular military greeting that opens the announcement of a succesful coup or national address?
3. Wishful thinking on my part?

Its meant to be a joke about the announcement that is broadcasted after a successful coup.

LOL, I thought so.

While I am aware that in Naija anything is possible, to be honest, I think Nigeria has moved beyond the era of coups. Every nation grows as its history unfolds, and I think that era of military dictatorship is now in our past. However, if a coup happens, it will almost definitely mark the demise of the nation. People are so pent up with frustration now that a massive outcry which may very well lead to the break up of the country will happen [exactly what you want to hear right ].

Even the northern military leaders, as obsene as they are, do not want the country to break up---for obvious reasons---so they are not likely to carry out a coup in this new civilian dispensation.

alarinjo, never place your faith in the hands of the military. They have shown in the past that they cannot be trusted.

Here is my scenario for events that might lead to a coup.

The Census is released later this year showing a majority of Nigerians live in the Southern region. This causes massive riots all over the northern region. The ANPP that is in charge of 6 northern States rejects the outcome of the census. And blames the results on rigging by the Obasonjo administration.

The out break and violence from the release of the census leads to the death of a few hundred to thousand before it is brought under control by the end of the year.

The 2007 election is a close call with the southern region voting for a PDP candidate. However, the Northern State vote in overwhelmingly for ANPP. There are wide spread reports of rigging and victory is awarded to the PDP candidate from he south-south. Riots break out in the North that leads to the killings of thousands of southerners. Most of whom are Igbos.

Counter riots break out in Enugu and other south-eastern State.

The President is forced to forced to implement a curfew in the North and South East. This only increases the anger in the nation.

Northern Generals storm Abuja and kill the newly elected President. They claim to have the support of military men all over the country.

The coup leads to massive riots in the South-West that up to now have been neutral on the issue. The south-East by this time is engulfed in riots.

Where things head from here is anyones guess.

I think thats a little wild

It is a bit of long shot. Afterall, the census results must not only be rejected, it must lead to massive riots that claim the lives of thousands. Then there must a controversial Presidential election that gives power to the south-south or south-east.

I will second the notion that a coup at this time would likely break up the country, but I will not say that a coup or an attempted coup is impossible.

Sorry to say but, given it is naija, don't be surprised that the very person who says no to a coup will turn around and take N20,000 from someone planning such a coup.

Some of us are very scary. Comparing such pple to Esau in the bible who sold his birthright over a plate of soup is an understatement.

Nigeria is known to defy many natural laws. Sad, but true.

The primary role of the millitary is solely be to defend the country, fight wars, keep the peace e.t.c.
It's only when the millitary ignores it's primary role and gets itself involved and entangled in politics that coups and all the garbages that comes along with it take place.


millitary and politics do not go together and shouldn't be found together.