Nigeria will soon overtake India to become the
UK’s second biggest source of international
postgraduate students, according to research
compiled by the British Council.
Forecasting by the organisation suggests that
the UK will host 241,000 postgraduate
international students by 2024, allowing it to
remain one of the top two destinations for
studying a postgrad abroad – second only to
the US.
But researchers warn the UK is too dependent
on China for its international numbers, and
that it is losing out on Indian students.
Demographic changes mean India’s appetite
for higher education is expanding quickly and
providing a source of international postgrad
students that the US is exploiting.
While in the UK, China accounts for 44% of
growth in the international postgraduate
market, this figure stands at 33% in the US.
More than half (54%) of the US’ international
students arrive from India – which, by 2024,
will be home to the largest tertiary-aged
population, numbering over 119 million.
“No single market should drive the growth
and composition of a country’s incoming
postgraduate body,” said Zainab Malik,
director of research for British Council
education intelligence. “As such, it is essential
for institutions and policy-makers to continue
to attract students from expanding economies
besides China and India, including Nigeria,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and
Vietnam.”
The study forecasts that the annual growth
rate of the UK’s international postgraduate
numbers will dip over the next 10 years,
falling 4.1% during the period 2007-12 to 3.5%
between 2013-24. This means the UK’s
international postgraduate market will grow
more slowly than the US, Canada and
Australia.
The predictions for the next decade were
generated by researchers who examined the
demographic and economic data for 23 origin
countries and six destination countries, as well
as examining historical trends. The study did
not look at the impact of specific political
factors such as visa arrangements.

Whats happening to other destinations – and who will be leading the way by 2024?

Australia and Canada are forecast to
have the highest annual average growth
rate of international postgraduate students,
at 4.1% each.
China is expected to account for 44% of
growth in international postgraduate
students going to study in the UK.
Over half (54%) of the US’ growth in
international postgraduate students is
expected to come from India.
In absolute terms, the US is set to be the
fastest-growing destination for international
postgraduate students over the next decade,
with an increase of 154,000 students
expected by 2024. The UK is set to see an
increase of 83,000, Australia 42,000 and
Germany 39,000.
The UK is expected to be the second-
slowest growing nation, with an annual
growth rate of 3.5% from 2012 to 2024,
which is only ahead of Japan.

Why is demand for postgraduate degrees increasing?

Countries around the world are recognising
the important role that education plays in
creating a skilled workforce that meets the
needs of industry and employers. As a result,
there has been a huge increase in
undergraduate enrolment the world over. The
ever-changing marketplace has allowed for
the growth of emerging economies,
particularly in Asia, where students are
looking to gain the qualifications they need to
better their chances of getting a skilled job.
This increase in undergraduate students has
had a knock on effect, and seen more
graduates applying for higher-level study.
Some countries are actively fuelling this
enrolement growth, such as Australia, which
saw an increase of more than 5% in the first
two years of the policy since it lifted the cap
on student numbers in 2012. And the UK is set
to do the same next year. Universities too, are
having a big impact. Since research output
plays an increasingly important role in
determining university funding and where
they are ranked in the world, universities are
looking to expand their talent pool by
recruiting postgrad students.
Although a large proportion of international
students is still expected to come from China,
the number of postgraduate students
elsewhere who are looking to study overseas
is increasing rapidly. The growth rate of
internationally mobile postgraduate students is
especially high in Nigeria (+8.3%) India (+7.5%),
Indonesia (+7.2%), Pakistan (+6.4%) and Saudi
Arabia (+5.2%).




http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/oct/07/-sp-nigerian-postgrads-set-to-outnumber-indian-students-in-uk-universities