PENDULUM BY DELE MOMODU, Email: dele.momodu@thisdaylive.com
“If you asked me years ago about Buhari being President,
I would have said ‘NO’ but it is 2014 and I think he’s our best
option…”
-@oluwadtest on Instagram
Fellow Nigerians, time changes everything indeed. In 2011, I would
have said worse things about General Muhammadu Buhari. In truth, I
actually wrote Buhari off completely, not without cogent reasons that
I considered valid and relevant at that time. The first was that Buhari
was too old to lead us. I was biased by the Obama Presidency and
the emergence of David Cameron in Britain. I felt Buhari as a former
dictator should be totally expunged from the race. I was also
brainwashed by the relentless propaganda that he was a religious
fundamentalist of the worst kind. If I was good in Fine Arts, I would
have painted him in the lurid and monstrous image of Lucifer. That
was how bad it was.
Trust me, I’m supposed to be one of the most liberal and tolerant
human beings but it was just difficult for me to accept Buhari as a
Presidential candidate at this time and age. I nearly clashed with my
dear friend and brother, Simon Kolawole, after reading an article he
had penned on Buhari and practically endorsing him at that time. I
was so livid that I did not wait for Simon to get out of church before I
started bombarding his lines with frenetic calls. When he eventually
got back to me, and in his usual humble manner said “Egbon, I
missed your calls, hope all is well?” I responded that all was not well
as he had spoilt my appetite and breakfast that morning with his
effusive praise of someone I considered a red-faced tyrant.
Simon was as cool as cucumber. He was incredibly blunt as he
instantly confessed his unrepentant love, admiration and support for
Buhari. He gave plenty reasons and regurgitated some of the offensive
sentiments already expressed in his emotional article but I wasn’t
impressed. I eventually dropped the matter as neither of us was
prepared to yield any ground. Rather than abate, my anger got
exacerbated. But that encounter challenged me to look more critically
at Buhari and probe deeper into how he acquired such stupendous
cult-following.
Without doubt, Buhari is a modern-day wonder. The story of his life is
a stuff of thriller novels. In a country where money fixes most things
and people, how did he manage to control the bodies and souls of his
fanatical supporters? What is it that makes him such a dual
personality that draws so many people to him while others withdraw
as if to run away from a victim of Ebola? What can Buhari do or
achieve at his age in this modern world where life itself has become
computerised? I suffered from this interior monologue for a long time.
Some of my fears started evaporating one night in Abuja when I was
invited over to meet him at the instance of Prince Lanrewaju Tejuoso,
one of his godsons. I was dazed at the ease Prince Lanrewaju was
able to get him to meet with me at such short notice. I was impressed
that there were no intruders during our heart-to-heart talk. Perhaps,
because he had no money to share, the usual parasites crawling all
over the corridors of power were not in sight. He spoke calmly but
firmly. He had this childlike innocence around him. It was difficult to
imagine this man sitting across me could hurt a fly even as a soldier.
There were no airs around him or chips on his shoulders. What you
saw was what you got; take it or leave it. Many had confessed to
similar reaction upon meeting him.
We took pictures together without much ado. And I actually found him
more charismatic than my jaundiced eyes could have permitted. What
I saw was that raw Fulani beauty and handsomeness. I and my aides
left the place liking him a bit.
Of course the election came as usual and Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
trounced Buhari mercilessly. But most of us got so carried away that
we failed to appreciate how well the man had performed against all
odds. Here was a man without loads of cash. He didn’t have a
preponderance of powerful Governors behind him. He could not
mobilise so many billionaires to fund him. He lacked the power of
incumbency. He could not secure the much needed coalition with ACN
at the time. Many Christians saw him as Satan on earth. Many youths
considered him too old. The super-rich saw him as the sword of
Damocles dangling over them. All the odds were stacked up against
him. Yet this poor man, as I like to describe him, recorded a whopping
12,214,853 votes while President Jonathan scored 22,495,187 votes.
Let’s break it down into simple Maths. Jonathan had a good spread
scoring 25% or more in 31 States. Buhari managed to score 25% or
more in 16 States and yet got a cumulative result of over 12 million
votes. A good Mathematician should be able to help us here because
I wish to show our President’s handlers that they will pay heavily for
complacency if they assume and take it for granted that they can beat
Buhari easily like PDP had always done in the past. Let me explain it
further. A man who won the mandatory 25% in about half of the
States secured by the President still went ahead to poll over half of
what the President got. Now this is the trickery part.
Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari had only 37.96% in
Adamawa while Jonathan had 56%. The registered voters were
1,816,094 but the voter-turnout was a miserable 49.98%. With the
way the country is right now, PDP would require a miracle to win
Adamawa with a landslide. If Buhari secures the APC ticket, it is
almost certain that he would clean up that State. And in case the
voters turn out much bigger, it means that State can wipe off some of
the deficits Buhari suffered in 2011. The two leading parties can still
jerk up about one million extras which won’t be a bad idea even if
PDP still gets 25% or more.
Let’s walk across to another interesting State, Bauchi where Buhari
recorded 1,315,209 against Jonathan’s 258,404 despite the avuncular
presence of PDP Governor, Yisa Yuguda. The registered voters here
were 2,523,614 but only 1,610,094 voters chose to vote with nearly
1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I hope you’re patient
enough to follow this Maths lesson.
Benue would certainly be a major battle ground this time for the
candidates because the State has over 1.3 million voters (out of a
total registration of 2,390,884) buried somewhere for the strongest
candidate to resurrect. Here ethnicity and religion would play critical
roles more than ever before. It is presently a virtual PDP State with
Jonathan polling 694,776 against Buhari’s 109,680 and ACN (Nuhu
Ribadu) 223,007. Benue had always been a State of enlightened
voters and it may swing in favour of a serious candidate.
Let’s keep moving and find somewhere to land in the troubled spot of
Borno State. This is a treasure ground with 2,380,957 out of which
more than half of the voters have absconded and vanished into thin
air. In 2011, Buhari 909,763 against the President’s humble 207,075
votes. Now this State is under fire but is NOW largely controlled by
the new alliance known as APC.
Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari scored 459,898 against
Jonathan’s 290,347 votes out of a total registration of 1,318,377. All
the parties combined recorded 770,019 voters. The implication of this
is that if this State decides to be generous, it may dash out about
548,358 votes. We are still moving and scavenging for the votes
wherever they are hiding.
Let’s say some quick Hello to our Brother, Governor of Jigawa State,
Sule Lamido, who couldn’t hold Buhari down despite his equally tall
physique. Here Buhari polled 663,994 against Jonathan’s 419,252.
Total votes cast came to 1,140,766 out of 2,013,974 total
registrations. Do not say I told you, this State has some 873,208
unseen registered voters probably perambulating as we write. This
journey is still long and arduous.
Kaduna is a major war zone for the candidates because of its peculiar
characteristics. Buhari’s supremacy was hotly challenged as
Jonathan polled 1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244 votes . Total
votes cast were 2,569,963 out of 3,905,387 total registered voters.
Now wait for the good news of the kingdom; this beautiful State has
1,335,424 voters that it can conjure whenever needed or ready.
If you think Kaduna was super, please, wait for the almighty Kano
where no serious candidate can play silly pranks with the energetic
and fearless Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. In 2011, Buhari massacred
Jonathan with 1,624,543 against 440,666. The then Governor and
Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even scored more than the
President with his 526,310 votes. The total votes cast came to
2,673,228 out of 5,027,297. In case your Maths is poor like mine, let’s
find a calculator before the brains explode. Kano alone can
conveniently and benevolently donate 2,354,069 potential voters out
of the skies.
We finally arrive in Buhari’s homestead of Katsina where he
expectedly polled 1,163,919 against Jonathan’s 428,392. It is either
many Katsina people didn’t dig their own son, since prophets hardly
get honoured at home, or Buhari just didn’t employ artful dodgers to
manipulate the votes in his favour. In all, 1,639,532 voters performed
their civic duty out of 3,126,898 registered voters. By fire, by force,
Katsina on a good day can still conjure some 1,487,366 votes.
Please, permit me to fast forward to the State of the Sokoto Caliphate
where a floodgate can still be opened. Strangely, Buhari pulled merely
540,769 shots against Jonathan’s 309,057. A total of 909,808 voters
came out of 2,267,509 registered voters. No one is able to explain this
anomalous situation to us properly but some 1,357,701 unseen voters
may decide to show up in 2015. Please, bear with me, you must be
getting tired but we need to do this together because of my over-
confident friends in Abuja who must have had F9 in Mathematics like
me.
Let me now give you the shock treatment and take you straight to the
biggest theatres of war. I must warn that this not for the faint-
hearted. Welcome to the heartbeat of Nigeria known as Lagos State
where Jonathan polled 1,281,688 against Buhari’s 189,983 and Nuhu
Ribadu’s 427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044 voters turned up out
of 6,108,069 voters. In effect, Lagos can, in its true majesty, produce
additional 4,163,025 out of its bag of magic.
I wish there was space to display all the figures but it won’t be
possible. But let me continue with the random sampling. Many of the
States won by Jonathan or PDP or both, depending on why you voted
in 2011, are not so easily available at this time. Take Oyo for example
under the control of APC beyond the next Presidential election may
prove too tough to handle. Only 863,544 out of 2,572,140 voters
appeared in public but we don’t know the whereabouts of 1,708,596
potential voters.
Ogun State is another interesting territory where 543,715 people voted
out of 1,941,170 who registered to vote. Meanwhile, the largest
turnout of voters was recorded in areas controlled by Jonathan but
let’s examine the figures. Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of
1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of 1,616,873; Anambra
1,157,239 out of 2,011,746; BAYELSA 506,693 out of 591,870; Cross
River 726,341 out of 1,148,486; Delta 1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo
621 out of 1,655,776; Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti 261,858
out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155; Imo 1,409,850 out of
1,687,293; Kwara 414,754 out of 1,152,361; Ondo 486,837 out of
1,616,091; Osun (lost by Jonathan) 512,714 out of 1,293,967; Rivers
(the largest State in South South) 1,854,116 out of 2,429,231 and so
and so on.
This should give you a fair representation of what is at stake in the
2015 election. Politics is not exactly Maths but it is still a game of
numbers. Those who think an incumbent President cannot be defeated
should wake up from their self-induced coma. The mood of the
Nigerian nation is very similar to that which swept Obama into
power. Lagos and Kano combined account for 11,135,366 registered
voters out of a grand total of 73,528,040. Only 38,199,219 people
voted in all the States. There are 35,328,821 floating somewhere.
Most of them are comfortably resident in APC States.
My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is simple; stop projecting
our President as a sectional leader whose only qualification is where
he comes from. Stop raining insults on Northerners and avoid
maligning innocent Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope to
play will never play out in favour of President Jonathan. You should
concentrate on projecting the positive work and his Transformation
Agenda. A President is the father of the nation. A lot of damage has
been done by portraying him as a victim who’s derided by everyone
except his own.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how the goodwill
of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy. Above all, they should
urgently search for competent Maths teachers.
Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.

This analysis with the figures is amazing!... Just whoa, mehn!!!
...
.. P34c3
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