Headline Findings

In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria’s 36 state Governorships.
In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.

Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.

This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.

To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.

Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria’s present electoral system.

However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South ‘zoning’.

It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.

2011’s results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC’s conduct in voter registration and election management.

Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states.
http://africanarguments.org/2014/10/29/incumbency-and-opportunity-forecasting-nigerias-2015-elections-by-zainab-usman-and-olly-owen/

They could be right, but wait......who are these analysts?

Come February 14 2015, we shall know who wins of the presidential election.
All these paper analysis are assumptions.

SeverusSnape:
They could be right, but wait......who are these analysts?

Zainab Usman is a DPhil Candidate at the University of Oxford. Oliver Owen is Junior Research Fellow in International Development at the Oxford Department of International Development.

muami:


Zainab Usman is a DPhil Candidate at the University of Oxford. Oliver Owen is Junior Research Fellow in International Development at the Oxford Department of International Development.

okay, I get you now. Thanks