The equation is though fluid, understanding how the
presidential hopefuls in the All Progressives Congress
stand in the different states provides a fair knowledge of
their chances at the December 10 national convention.
Olawale Olaleye writes
Eight days from now, the All Progressives Congress
(APC) would be done with its national convention. A
presidential standard-bearer is expected to emerge. But
it is not going to be as easy. To cross the lines are
some critical hurdles of both human and strategy
factors.
Already shared with a degree of certainty are the 14 APC
states with the governors identifying, albeit subtly, with
their preferred aspirants. This, in effect, means the
direction the delegates from such states would head is
sealed. But these 14 states are not going to play as
much a pivotal role as the 22 non-APC states now
regarded as the battleground states.
How well each of the aspirants is able to connect with
the delegates from these states and harvest the votes
thereof will obviously determine who eventually emerges
the presidential candidate of the APC.
Basically, there are four candidates on the card but the
race appears to be strictly a two-horse race: between a
former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and
former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The two
others are the Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu
Kwankwaso, and the publisher of Leadership
Newspapers, Sam Ndah-Isaiah.
Below is a forecast on how the delegates may vote
across the 36 states for their choice aspirants. It is in no
particular order.

The South-south

Delta: The terrain here is a leveller and so, voting here
may be too close to call. Although the battle here is a
two-horse race, Atiku appears to have made some
inroads into Delta and may come out very strong; Buhari
will be able to neutralise such a hold through the
influence of one of his strongest backers, Governor
Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State.
•Too close to call


Edo: Here, the odds are clearly in favour of Buhari,
however with an equally strong Atiku presence. Voting
here may likely go 60:40 in favour of Buhari.
•The odds favour Buhari



Cross River: This is purely a pro-Atiku turf with a voting
pattern in the region of 70-30 in favour of the former
number two citizen. The bit that Buhari may garner here
is also as a result of Amaechi’s influence being a South-
south region.
•The odd favour Atiku



Rivers: The race here is best described as a no contest
duel. It is Buhari all the way and at the very best, it
would be 90:10 in favour of the former Head of State.
Atiku's presence here is very weak and understandably
so because of the Amaechi factor.
•The odd favour Buhari



Akwa Ibom: Although Buhari appears to have an upper
hand here, it can't be anything above a 60:40 ratio.
Some of the recent developments in the state APC,
especially the defection of the former Secretary to the
State Government, Umana Okon Umana, appear to have
altered the equation to an extent.
•The odd favour Buhari

The South-east

Imo: The presence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of the
state will help boost the chances of Atiku, being a close
ally. It however stands at a 60-40 sharing. One factor
that seems to give Atiku an edge here is religion. And
for the records, Okorocha is not contesting for the APC
presidential ticket.



•The odd favour Atiku
Enugu: Voting here also presents a 60:40 ratio with
religion still a factor. Atiku holds the ace here.
•The odd favour Atiku



Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the
whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is
also present here. It will go the way of Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku


Abia: The God's own state as Abia otherwise is called is
also likely to favour Atiku with a 60:40 ratio. It is still a
factor of religion.
•The odd favour Atiku


Ebonyi: The last of the South-east states is not going to
differ significantly. Atiku enjoys an upper hand here too.
No thanks to religion. It is a 60:40 show in favour of
Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku


Did the writer forget Rochas is in the race?

The South-west


Lagos: It is too close to call but may go the way of
Buhari with a 60:40 sharing.
•The odd favour Buhari


Ogun: Buhari is the issue here. Ogun may vote 70:30 in
his favour.
•The odd favour Buhari


Oyo: Although with a strong Atiku presence, Buhari will
clean up votes here, however, to the ratio of 60:40
•The odd favour Buhari


Osun: Votes here will be hotly contested but with a
slight Buhari edge. It is 60:40.
•The odd favour Buhari


Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and the
turnout is most likely to be too close to call with a 50:50
voting share.
•Too close to call


Ondo: As it is in Ekiti, Ondo looks like another 50:50
match between the two front runners.
•Too close to call

The North-west

Kano: It is Kwankwaso all the way. While the governor
could garner some 70 per cent votes, the rest will be
shared amongst other contenders.
•The odd favour Kwankwaso


Kaduna: Buhari is the aspirant to beat here with some
70 per cent votes while other candidates may struggle
with the remaining 30 per cent.
•The odd favour Buhari


Jigawa: Delegates here are sympathetic to Buhari.
Voting could be 60:40 in his favour.
•The odd favour Buhari


Sokoto: Battle for delegates' votes here will be tough as
both Buhari and Atiku have a neck-and-neck strength
which could produce a 50:50 voting outcome.
•Too close to call



Kebbi: As it is likely to play out in Sokoto so will it in
Kebbi. It is a 50:50 game.
•Too close to call


Zamfara: Whilst the battle for votes here will be tough,
Buhari has an edge that could produce a 60:40 voting
ratio in favour of the former Head of State.
•The odd favour Buhari



Katsina: There is passionate home advantage here and
the voting is Buhari all the way. It’s a no contest zone.
•The odd favour Buhari

Following...it's going to be keenly contested as you said!

The North-east


Borno: Buhari is strong here with an impressionable
Atiku presence. It is 60:40 in Buhari’s favour.
•The odd favour Buhari


Yobe: Here, Buhari has a strong footing that will be
evident in the voting pattern. He is likely to poll over 60
per cent of total votes.
•The odd favour Buhari


Gombe: Delegates here are for Atiku with a not-too-bad
outing for Buhari. Say another 70:30 sharing in Atiku’s
favour.
•The odd favour Atiku


Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Atiku clearly
has the upper hand being his home state, so the home
advantage will be strong for Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku


Taraba: Delegates here may have signed up for Atiku,
perhaps in the region of 60:40.
•The odd favour Atiku


Bauchi: Chances are that Buhari will pull his weight
here, albeit with some 60:40 voting pattern.
•The odd favour Buhari

The North-central

Kogi: Votes here will be free for all with a plausible
50-50 sharing between Buhari and Atiku
•Too close to call


Kwara: Buhari will clean up the Kwara votes because of
the influence of the former governor, Bukola Saraki, who
is believed to be sympathetic to the Buhari cause.
•The odd favour Buhari


Niger: Delegates in Niger may tilt in the direction of
Buhari, even though Atiku is poised to fight hard. This
is Nda-Isaiah’s home state, and may muzzle some votes
given his supposed home advantage.
•The odd favour Buhari


Plateau: Atiku is on the prowl here and is sure to hold
sway. Delegates will boost his chances here over and
above that of Buhari.
•The odd favour Atiku


Benue: The battle in Benue State promises to throw up
some good challenge, however with a 60-40 voting in
favour of Buhari.
•The odd favour Buhari


Nasarawa: Indications are that delegates here have the
backing of Buhari, but not without some good showing
by Atiku.
•The odd favour Buhari

www.thisdaylive.com/articles/how-the-apc-aspirants-stand-across-the-states/195583/

Interesting analysis, the apc primaries excites me, even though i had a nightmare that Atiku won yesterday.

Btw when did i start dreaming about politicians choi.

Kano: It is Kwankwaso all the way. While the governor
could garner some 70 per cent votes, the rest will be
shared amongst other contenders.
•The odd favour Kwankwaso

I strongly disagree ma. Kano Politicians and even Government officials are loyal to Buhari FIRST before Kwankwaso. A Buhari singlehandedly sent Kwankwaso packing in 2003, and a Buhari endorsement returned Kwankwaso in 2011.

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barcanista:
I strongly disagree ma. Kano Politicians and even Government officials are loyal to Buhari FIRST before Kwankwaso. A Buhari singlehandedly sent Kwankwaso packing in 2003, and a Buhari endorsement returned Kwankwaso in 2011.

Very true.

Obiagelli:
www.thisdaylive.com/articles/how-the-apc-aspirants-stand-across-the-states/195583/

Interesting analysis, the apc primaries excites me, even though i had a nightmare that Atiku won yesterday.

Btw when did i start dreaming about politicians choi.

Go back to the dream and finish it!

Adamawa: Here is a no-go-area for Buhari. Atiku clearly
has the upper hand being his home state, so the home
advantage will be strong for Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku

Again, I beg to disagree. Buhari is more popular in Adamawa than Atiku. In fact, Atiku's popularity is dependent on variables. Recall that Atiku came a distant 3rd in 2007 election in Adamawa state, with Buhari clinching first and Yaradua second. Atiku could not even help AC in 2007 retain Adamawa despite having a loyal incumbent Governor. Atiku lost woefully to President Jonathan in Adamawa state during the 2011 PDP Primaries.

barcanista:
I strongly disagree ma. Kano Politicians and even Government officials are loyal to Buhari FIRST before Kwankwaso. A Buhari singlehandedly sent Kwankwaso packing in 2003, and a Buhari endorsement returned Kwankwaso in 2011.

Some of you can be so stewpidly senseless atimes.

1) Are you saying the states deligates whom Kwankwaso installed will now vote for Buhari without Kwankwaso's node?

2) Are you telling us that Buhari endorsed Kwankwaso in 2011 at the expense of his CPC candidate whom he campaigned vigorously for?

Ekiti: The battle for votes here will elicit interest and the
turnout is most likely to be too close to call with a 50:50
voting share.
•Too close to call


Ondo: As it is in Ekiti, Ondo looks like another 50:50
match between the two front runners.

Both states APC are loyal to Bola Tinubu, who is loyal to Buhari Structure. I can't imagine any candidate "sharing" up to 50% of votes here with Buhari.

Nice Analysis though not perfect, Atiku's only hope is the SE, though it isn't a guarantee. Sincerely, Atiku is one of the richest but the most overrated politician in Nigeria

Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is
also present here. It will go the way of Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku

Ngige controls anambra, Ngige has been travelling with Buhari to meet delegates.

Goddex:


Some of you can be so stewpidly senseless atimes.

How much do you know of North-West Politics?

Clerverly:


Go back to the dream and finish it!

barcanista:
I strongly disagree ma. Kano Politicians and even Government officials are loyal to Buhari FIRST before Kwankwaso. A Buhari singlehandedly sent Kwankwaso packing in 2003, and a Buhari endorsement returned Kwankwaso in 2011.

And the south West delegates are going to vote for Buhari en block: say 80:20 in favour of Buhari!

The only place Atiku would convincingly is south east but then when you add up the number of delegates from each zone, your guess would be good as mine!

Sai Buhari!

Obiagelli:


Ngige controls anambra, Ngige has been travelling with Buhari to meet delegates.

The Writer I suppose did not do enough analysis. I know that APC structure under Dr. Chris Nwabueze Ngige is working in tandem with Governor Fashola and Tinubu, who in turn are working for the emergence of Buhari.

Buhari will win every boko haram states

Interesting topic.

Buhari all the way!!!

Clerverly:


And the south West delegates are going to vote for Buhari en block: say 80:20 in favour of Buhari!

The only place Atiku would convincingly is south east but then when you add up the number of delegates from each zone, your guess would be good as mine!

Sai Buhari!

This is simple. As far as NE, NW, NC, SW and SS delegates are concerned, it is Sai Buhari. Even in that SE Anambra will go to Buhari Team. I don't know who controls Ebonyi, Enugu and Abia structures of APC, but as for Imo... Rochas may favor his padi Atiku

@ Obiagelli u didn't factor in the influence of money in the voting process,most delegates know théy need to effectively utilize this oppurtunity at least to improve on their pocket infrastructure..I sincerely advise your man to get loan to finance this primaries cos am sure the former No.2 man will dole out pounds,euros and dollars...never underestimate the power of money...IN POLiTICS THERE IS NO MORALITY IF YOU WANT MORALITY GO tO CHURCH..ROTIMI

Obiagelli:
The South-east

Imo: The presence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of the
state will help boost the chances of Atiku, being a close
ally. It however stands at a 60-40 sharing. One factor
that seems to give Atiku an edge here is religion. And
for the records, Okorocha is not contesting for the APC
presidential ticket.



•The odd favour Atiku
Enugu: Voting here also presents a 60:40 ratio with
religion still a factor. Atiku holds the ace here.
•The odd favour Atiku



Anambra: Nothing significantly changes here too as the
whole of South-east may toe the same line. Religion is
also present here. It will go the way of Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku


Abia: The God's own state as Abia otherwise is called is
also likely to favour Atiku with a 60:40 ratio. It is still a
factor of religion.
•The odd favour Atiku


Ebonyi: The last of the South-east states is not going to
differ significantly. Atiku enjoys an upper hand here too.
No thanks to religion. It is a 60:40 show in favour of
Atiku.
•The odd favour Atiku


Did the writer forget Rochas is in the race?

Enugu,Anambra and Ebonyi will go to Gen Buhari......More so Anambra where Dr Chris Ngige( a loyalist of Buhari) has the party structure in his short trouser

The same is applicable to Ebonyi being presently controlled by Dr Ogbonnaya Onu,another Buhari-leaning APC National Leader

From this article

Buhari = 18 states

Atiku = 10 states


I still believe buhari will do better.

barcanista:
The Writer I suppose did not do enough analysis. I know that APC structure under Dr. Chris Nwabueze Ngige is working in tandem with Governor Fashola and Tinubu, who in turn are working for the emergence of Buhari.

You should know where thisday's sympathy lies its nice looking at this analysis, i wish our democracy continues to grow.

youngalex:
@ Obiagelli u didn't factor in the influence of money in the voting process,most delegates know théy need to effectively utilize this oppurtunity at least to improve on their pocket infrastructure..I sincerely advise your man to get loan to finance this primaries cos am sure the former No.2 man will dole out pounds,euros and dollars...never underestimate the power of money...IN POLiTICS THERE IS NO MORALITY IF YOU WANT MORALITY GO tO CHURCH..ROTIMI

Voting is not open, money is less significant.

soroptimist:


Enugu,Anambra and Ebonyi will go to Gen Buhari......More so Anambra where Dr Chris Ngige( a loyalist of Buhari) has the party structure in his short trouser

The same is applicable to Ebonyi being presently controlled by Dr Ogbonnaya Onu,another Buhari-leaning APC National Leader

You are absolutely correct. The writer is quite naive.

soroptimist:


Enugu,Anambra and Ebonyi will go to Gen Buhari......More so Anambra where Dr Chris Ngige( a loyalist of Buhari) has the party structure in his short trouser

The same is applicable to Ebonyi being presently controlled by Dr Ogbonnaya Onu,another Buhari-leaning APC National Leader

But they can easily be influenced! One of the delegates from Ebonyi is my friend, I know what he told me yesterday! However, Ogbonnaya Onu( Okaa Omee 1) is hell bent on delivery the state to his bossom friend, General Buhari!

barcanista:
Again, I beg to disagree. Buhari is more popular in Adamawa than Atiku. In fact, Atiku's popularity is dependent on variables. Recall that Atiku came a distant 3rd in 2007 election in Adamawa state, with Buhari clinching first and Yaradua second. Atiku could not even help AC in 2007 retain Adamawa despite having a loyal incumbent Governor. Atiku lost woefully to President Jonathan in Adamawa state during the 2011 PDP Primaries.

The recent governorship primaries held in adamawa backs your point, Atiku's candidate was defeated. Though i don't know where Nyako stands

trash.....make them adopt GEJ.