Content of Pastor Bakare TV broadcast that was yank off the air by Channels TV....

Sign 1: Poor Level of Election Preparedness
Reasonable people are inclined to ask how prepared the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is for the upcoming general elections. Despite the desperate efforts of the Commission to manage pre-election logistics, the tales of woe that have trailed the Permanent Voters’ Card collection exercise have raised a lot of questions as to the level of preparedness of the Commission with many Nigerians fearing disenfranchisement. The Vanguard of November 15, 2014, in an article titled “Permanent Voters’ Cards, PVC: How INEC Failed Nigerians”, reported that more than 75% of the PVCs in rural areas in Lagos were left uncollected. Similar and even worse tales of woe trailed the exercise in other states such as in Edo State where PVCs were stolen. The Nigerian Pilot of November 17, 2014 reported a collection rate of less than 50% in Abia State. A survey conducted by News Agency of Nigeria on public perception regarding INEC’s preparedness for the elections, including the organization’s handling of voter registration and card collection exercises and the adoption of recommendations to forestall the challenges of the 2011 elections, gave INEC a low scorecard.

Sign 2: Safety and Security Risks
A study on Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria in the period between 2006 and 2013 by Chatham House in the United Kingdom revealed that 17 states in the North were terror prone and recorded varying degrees of violent attacks leading to violent deaths. In terms of frequency of attacks, Borno, Yobe, Kano, Kaduna, Adamawa and Bauchi, in that order, led the other states. Further compilation of recorded incidents from other sources showed that towards mid-2014, Boko Haram attacks had become an almost daily occurrence in Borno State. Terror attacks or threats of same were also reported in northern states that had previously been free of such, including Kogi and Nasarawa, as well as in southern states such as Lagos, Delta and Imo.

Given the new tactics being adopted by the Boko Haram sect especially suicide bombing by teenage girls who, it appears, the sect is increasingly targeting for abduction, the risk factor in massive political rallies and polling units across the North of the country and, to a lesser extent, in the South, is dangerously high. Let us not forget that in December 2014, a female suicide bomber arrested by vigilante forces in Borno State revealed that 50 other female suicide bombers had been let loose.

As INEC has requested of the Federal Government a massive deployment of armed forces and security agencies for the general elections, a proposal that is being opposed by opposition parties, I challenge the Federal Government to conduct an honest assessment of the capability and numerical strength of each of the security agencies and armed forces and assure Nigerians that the ratio of forces to polling units across the federation is such that can effectively ward off potential attacks and guarantee security. The logic would be to deploy more forces to areas that are highly prone to terror but security tacticians must not forget that deceit is a weapon of war. Terrorists might seek to take the nation by surprise and target less protected areas which, ordinarily, might have been less terror prone. Let the security agents also be mindful of what I will refer to as the Ziklag factor (1st Samuel 30). If security agencies are to be massively deployed to polling units on Election Day, it would be risky to leave the home front unprotected in terror prone areas as terror attacks might be unleashed on homes to target the non-voting population. Worse still, with their antecedents of becoming partisan and getting caught up in politicking during elections, can our security agents maintain the level of alertness required to quell potential attacks? We might have succeeded in organizing some gubernatorial elections in the South, and the aborted gubernatorial election in Adamawa due to the subsequent swearing-in of the deputy governor, by massively deploying military and civil defence forces; however, we cannot ignore these threats ahead of the general elections.

Sign 3: Likely Minority King-making
Nigeria has a history of low voter turnout. For instance, the 2011 parliamentary elections recorded 25.8% turnout while the presidential elections recorded 48.32%. In essence, electoral decisions in Nigeria are made by the minority. Given the state of the nation, in spite of the excitement trailing the emergence of candidates, the 2015 elections threaten to record an even worse turnout. Aside the problems associated with voter registration and PVC collection, if the reported hundreds of thousands of displaced persons in terror prone areas are considered with respect to their status as part and parcel of the electorate, and if terror-stricken towns are considered in terms of polling units involved, then we are faced with the likelihood of massive disenfranchisement and voter apathy that could render the elections disputable and inconclusive.

Sign 4: Looming Constitutional and Legal Crisis
The constitutional provisions for election into the office of the president as articulated in section 132 of the 1999 Constitution provides a window for challenging the validity of any presidential election if elections cannot be held in some parts of the country as might be the case if the security situation is not addressed before the elections. Section 132(4) provides that:

For the purpose of an election to the office of President, the whole of the Federation shall be regarded as one constituency.

Section 47 of the Electoral Act 2010 further provides that:

Voting in any particular election under this Act shall take place on the same day and time throughout the Federation.

By these provisions, it is clear that any presidential election that excludes certain parts of the nation will result in constitutional crisis and legal battles that may further heighten sectional tensions.

Sign 5: Impending Post-election Tension
This necessitates a look at those pointers to possible post-election tension. First, like the gathering of the clouds, the utterances of vested interests from the northern and southern sections of the country as to how they will react if the election turns one way or the other is a pointer to an impending storm that the nation must not ignore. In recent times, direct threats in this regard have been coming from vested interests in the South-South with a history of militancy. This should give the nation a grave cause for concern when considered against the massive oil theft in the region as well as reports suggesting arms build-up with ex-militants allegedly linked to a botched South African arms deal that was widely reported, and to the purchase of six warships as reported in The Punch newspaper of December 13, 2014. Mind you, the Global Terrorism Index report identified 6 terror groups in Nigeria. Contrary to public perception, according to the report, even though Boko Haram is currently the deadliest terror group in the country and has laid claim to about 90% of the terror attacks in the period covered by the report, the largest terror group in Nigeria is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) with a membership strength of about 15,000 despite its having recorded much fewer attacks than Boko Haram. Ladies and gentlemen, one does not need a soothsayer to know this is a red flag!

On the other hand, the readiness of the multitude of northern youth to violently defend what they perceive as theirs, rightly or wrongly, is well documented in our recent election experience. The nation would not want to be caught-up in violence involving two regions. Another civil war in addition to terrorism would be too much weight on an ailing nation. Why not first address the root causes of these tensions that mount up every election year - root causes that elections themselves cannot resolve but aggravate?

Sign 6: Looming Economic Collapse
Alongside these pointers to political upheaval are the signs of an impending economic collapse. Any of the following scenarios is possible:

Inflation
With the proposed diversification of revenue base from oil to taxation and with the devaluation of the naira in an economy that is largely import dependent, cost-push inflation is likely to occur. Also, the flow of money into the economy through politics within the first quarter of the year ahead of the elections could as well facilitate a demand-pull inflation. The so-called average Nigerian who has no place on the dinner table would bear the brunt. It is even doubtful that they can access the crumbs that fall from the master's table.

Deflation
With the expected reduction in government spending for a nation whose financial sector is still largely government supported and with likely reduction in purchasing power due to taxation and possible job cuts in the public as well as private sector, a fall in aggregate demand would eventually lead to deflation. An inflation-deflation transition could result in losses for investors in volatile markets such as securities and property.

Monetary Collapse
The depletion of our foreign reserves, the dip in crude oil prices and its downward impact on our foreign earnings, the weak state of our manufacturing sector, and our import dependence could lead to a sustained downward spiral in the value of our currency.

We are therefore faced with the challenge of managing a volatile transition process and a looming economic downturn at the same time. It will interest you to note that the same fundamentals that must be addressed in the political dimension of our challenges also hold the key to economic stability and prosperity for our beloved nation. However, before we take a look at these fundamentals, it is necessary to point out one more sign of the gathering storms that has to do with my constituency, the church, and its interaction with the political space in 2015.


Sign 7: Potential Religious Confusion, Betrayals, Scandals and Persecution

In 2011, when I was selected by General Buhari as running mate, there was a gang-up against that ticket by a substantial section of the church which preferred the candidate that was perceived as Christian, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. Not only was the church not convinced about General Buhari’s non-fundamentalist stance, it also refused to give support to the running mate who, in its perception, is controversial and non-conformist. At that time, the mantra amongst many men of God was that a pastor had nothing to do with politics. Reports also have it that Christian clergy received financial inducement from their preferred candidate who is again contesting against the same General Buhari in 2015. To compound the matter, General Buhari's running mate is another pastor who should ordinarily have the support of his home church, a very influential denomination in and outside the country and whose head is highly respected in the Christian establishment. Therefore, ordinarily, for those to whom religion means a lot in the making of electoral decisions, the current running mate of the APC should be tiwa n tiwa, that is, “our own” and should be massively supported by the church. But it is not going to be that easy. What would be the implication of turning away from the incumbent who was massively supported in 2011 by the church establishment? How about those for whom the president has done one favour or another, such as waivers, contracts, soft landings, protection of vested interests in one form or another, or even outright monetary gifts - not necessarily bribery, just a 'harmless' gift? Would these pastors, priests and prophets now turn against their benefactor, the president, to give support to “our own”? What will be the position of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN), organizations that have been massively behind the president and who are likely biased against APC as PFN's 2015 round-the-clock circulated prayer bulletin reveals? Would there be reminders that this same incumbent has knelt before us at our conventions where we laid hands on him and supposedly endorsed him? Or, would we make a u-turn now that this is “our own”? Would such a u-turn not come with dire consequences reminiscent of the Abimelech experience with the men of Shechem in Judges 9:22-24 (NKJV)?:

22 After Abimelech had reigned over Israel three years, 23 God sent a spirit of ill will between Abimelech and the men of Shechem; and the men of Shechem dealt treacherously with Abimelech, 24 that the crime done to the seventy sons of Jerubbaal might be settled and their blood be laid on Abimelech their brother, who killed them, and on the men of Shechem, who aided him in the killing of his brothers.

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Source: http://saharareporters.com/2015/01/05/seven-signs-2015-elections-will-shipwreck-nigeria-pastor-bakare

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u said worse than these in 1999 but all were lies,.

Make this man park wan side joooooor As den nor give am VP Slot naaaa ...e wan begin yarm opata