Presidential Polls: States that may determine the winner


LESS than 14 days to the presidential election,
a number of states are emerging as votes
swinging blocs that will shape the outcome of
the polls.


WITH just two weeks to the 2015 presidential
election, there is no doubt that votes in states
with high density registered voters, would
most likely determine who wins the contest.
Unlike other states, Lagos, Kano, Rivers,
Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Plateau, Delta, Benue
and Bauchi are expected to be prioritised by
the campaign organisations of the Peoples
Democratic Party, PDP, and All Progressives
Congress, APC.
An in depth analysis of the emerging electoral
map, showed that these states have 30, 015,
291 registered voters, representing nearly 43
percent of the total number of registered
voters across the country which the
Independent Electoral Commission, INEC
pegged at 70,383,427.
In the 2011 presidential elections, Major-
General Muhammadu Buhari, retd, who was
the candidate of the defunct Congress of
Progressive Change, CPC, won in five of these
states – Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Bauchi, and
Niger
President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP also
won in five – Lagos, Rivers, Plateau, Benue and
Delta.
In spite of the fact that Nigeria’s electoral map
is continuously undergoing transmutation,
occasioned by the sustained updating of voters
register and rate of Permanent Voters Cards
(PVCs) collection, these areas remain pivotal in
deciding how far any of the candidates can go.
Since a good number of the states are being
controlled by the PDP, it may not be wrong to
assume that the party would have an edge over
the APC in those areas, but that may not
totally be the case as a result of many factors.
Prominent among the reasons are the issues of
religion, ethnicity, changing alliances and party
loyalty, which are deciding factors in these
hotbeds.
The foregoing, analysts argued, highlight the
challenges that Jonathan and Buhari may face
in framing arguments that would attract votes
in these battle grounds.
Further probe into the electoral map showed
that much as the states offer reasons for hope,
there are so many reasons for the APC and PDP
to be apprehensive.

LAGOS:
With a voting strength of 5,905,852 Lagos is
known to have the highest number of
registered voters in the country.
Out of this number about 2,2 67,039 people
have collected their PVCs, while about 1.8
million PVCs are yet to be collected.
Vanguard gathered that INEC in the state has
so far received about four million PVCs.
Though Lagos is the stronghold of the APC, it
could as well be described as a swing state
given its heterogeneous nature which cuts
across party leanings. It is for this reason that
pundits are undivided about the likely
direction of the pendulum.
To them, it is neither here nor there, hence
the circumspection against concluding on the
possible winner of the presidential race in the
state. Instructively, President Jonathan scored
1,281,688 votes against Buhari’s 189, 983 in
2011.
Whether the 2011 voting pattern would play
out in Africa’s most populous city, is likely to
be determined by the unusual audacious
outing the opposition is having this time.

KANO
Kano is officially the most populous state in
Nigeria. With a population of about 11 million
people, the state has 44 local government
areas, LGAs, making it very crucial in political
calculations in the country’s multiparty
system.
So important is the numerical edge of the
state that the fate of presidential aspirants are,
to a large extent, often determined by the
support of Kano delegates during party
primaries.
Like other core northern states, the voting
pattern in Kano, usually toe along ethno
religious lines.
In 2011, the religious cleavages in the system
were prevalent, resulting in the lean number of
votes the PDP recorded in the state.
The CPC candidate scored 1,624,543 votes
while the PDP had 440, 666. Though the state
is currently being governed by the APC,
analysts believe that the voting pattern would
further influence how far any of the leading
presidential candidates can go.
The state has 4,975,701 registered voters,
making it the second after Lagos.
Unfortunately, over 40 percent of these eligible
voters may not vote as a result of the low
collection rate of PVCs. As at the time of filing
this report, only 2,612,400 PVCs have been
distributed across the 44 local councils of the
state.

KATSINA
The cruciality of Katsina is pegged on three key
factors: it is the home state of Buhari, has
many registered voters and 79 per cent of the
would-be-voters have collected the PVC These
three elements would be so pivotal in the race
given that they might shape the voting pattern.
Considering the fact that the twin issues of
religion and ethnicity, had in the past, played
pivotal role in the voting pattern in Katsina,
predicting a repeat of history may not be
difficult.
It is expected that 2,245, 303 voters
representing the number of PVCs collected
would vote on the Election Day out of
2,827,943 registered voters.

KADUNA
With latest report ranking Kaduna as the state
with the highest rate of PVCs collection, the
state is certainly a battle ground. Aside leading
in PVCs collection rate, Kaduna is the home
state of Vice President Namadi Sambo and also
a melting pot with high number of indigenous
Christians.
In 2011, Buhari and Jonathan ran a tight race
in Kaduna, which Buhari narrowly won. Buhari
scored 1,334, 244 votes while Jonathan had
1,190,179 votes, which reconfirmed the
unpredictable voting pattern of the state. Out
of 3,407,222 registered voters, 2,976,628
people have collected their PVCs, indicating a
62 percent collection rate.

NIGER
More than half of the entire 3,950,249
population of Niger State were registered
during the various voters’ registration
exercises in the state.
At the moment, Niger has 2,014,317 registered
voters and 62 two percent of this population
are in possession of their PVCs. Specifically,
1,250,379 PVCs have been collected.
Incidentally, Niger which is the home state of
former heads of state, General Ibrahim
Babangida, retd, and Gen Abdulsalami
Abubakar (retd), giving it a very crucial space
in the country’s electoral map.These leaders
are known to have large followership across
the country, considering the various roles they
had played in the country’s political evolution.
Already, Babangida, in a move seen as having
sweeping implications in the race, recently
declared his support for Buhari, in the
upcoming elections.
The 2011 election results showed that Jonathan
had 321,429 votes while Buhari won with
652,574 votes.

BAUCHI
Apart from having 2,054,125 registered voters,
Bauchi has so far, recorded nearly 85 per cent
PVCs distribution rate.
Another feature that stands Bauchi out as a
possible battleground is the fact that the PDP
National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, hails
from there.
Muazu, a former governor of the state, is
expected to deliver the state for his party.
Already, the state is already making the
headlines for alleged anti-Jonathan activities,
occasioned by the stoning of the President’s
convoy.
Bauchi is among the states where the PDP had
a poor outing in the 2011 presidential
election.
President Jonathan had 258,404 votes in that
exercise while Buhari won with 1,315, 209
votes.
Barring any downward or upward change in
the number of PVCs distributed, about 1, 745,
441 voters would vote in next month’s
election.

PLATEAU
The violence ravaged state, is among the few
places in the North were the President won in
2011 presidential election.
The result of that election, to a large extent,
conformed to arguments that the Christian/
Muslim dichotomy played a decisive role in the
exercise.
Accordingly, Jonathan had 1, 029,865 votes,
while Buhari scored 356,551 votes.
The number of registered voters in Plataea is
2, 001,825 while 1,141,260 people have so far
collected their PVCs.

RIVERS
Known for its usual block votes for the PDP
since 1999 the state would undoubtedly be a
battleground considering the gains the APC has
made as a result of the defection of Governor
Rotimi Amaechi.
The likely voting pattern in the presidential
election, will for a long time dominate most
post-election discourse. The number of
registered voters in Rivers is 2,537,590, but a
lower percentage of that figure would vote in
the election. The development is not
unconnected with the fact that only 1, 253,606
PVCs have been distributed by INEC.
Against that backdrop, the state that gave
President Jonathan 1,817,762 votes in 2011,
may not record up to 50 percent participation
in the race.

DELTA
With 2, 275,264 registered voters, Delta is the
second most numerically strong state in the
South-South geo-political zone.
Even though over one million of these voters
would not vote in the polls, about 1,422,595
votes are up for grabs.
The state voted massively for President
Jonathan in 2011 with 1, 378, 851 votes.
BENUE
In Benue, 1, 132,187 votes are for up grabs.
This figure represents the number of PVCs
distributed in the state out the 2,015,452
registered voters.
In 2011, President Jonathan garnered 694, 776
votes


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