There are 14 presidential candidates for next weekend’s election but for majority of Nigerians, there might as well be only two – Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.). The others have suffered an admixture of zero media coverage, lack of a manifesto, few supporters, unremarkable charisma amidst the scorched earth mien of Nigeria’s two dominant parties: the All Progressives Congress, and the Peoples Democratic Party.

This fixation on the big parties is not a new development – almost the same process occurred in 2011. The subtle difference was that it seemed a three-horse race till Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress was trounced in the AC’s backyard.

While this election is a referendum on President Jonathan -and all he claims to have achieved in the past five years – it is equally, a fact-checker for his main challenger, Buhari, and all he proposes to do if he is able to – at the fourth joust- dislodge the incumbent. It is a contest of equals and a too-close-to-call is on the cards.

The supporters of both sides are unrelenting to the point some have divorced themselves from objective realities. They cannot be persuaded from their illusions that an election season where concrete issues have not been vigorously debated; where ideas and ideologies were not traded; where developmental philosophies were not extensively thrashed; where the arena has instead been dominated by colourless maudlin presidential personalities and their vehement supporters cannot, ultimately, result in any meaningful change.

Ironically, both leading candidates have the same kind of supporters who will either be voting for or against them. For ease of counting, they are boxed into two broad categories, and either is expansive enough to accommodate shades of characters on the same continuum.

First, the Sincerely Deluded. This comprises those who view the gladiators through rose-tinted glasses. The second are the Place-Holders which groups those who just want “continuity” or “change” in Aso Rock.

The Sincerely Deluded in Jonathan’s camp are the ones who praise him for figures that indicate a growth in a depressed economy tossed hither and thither. They make spurious arguments such as saying he has “tried” for Nigeria but stop short of asking if the “growth” translates into measurable developmental impact. They tout the achievements of restoring outdated trains on outdated tracks without questioning where it leads: the whole economic plan that should drive those coaches. They praise what they refer to as the “ongoing agricultural revolution” without evaluating how it has translated into tangible benefits for the wo/man on the street. They refuse to talk about the high incidence of corruption or the insurgency that has left many people dead and lots more displaced. They hold on to their imagination of what is as against subsisting realities. Mind you, these people are not idiots. They just do not want to engage anything capable of disrupting their faith in their candidate so they rate claims over concreteness.

There is an uncomplicated way to check claims against the reality: Are people’s lives better now than they were five years ago when Jonathan was sworn in?

To answer this question sincerely, they would have to shake themselves out of their self-induced stupour. Instead, they resort to either prevarication or meretricious responses.

Buhari’s throng of Sincerely Deluded crowd are similar to Jonathan’s. They have built countless myths of messianism around and about their candidate. He is as straight as an arrow, they insist. He is beyond reproach, they insist with vehemence. He will fight corruption to the ground, they believe. He has enough force of personality to liberate Nigerians from the shackles that hold them down, they argue with undiffused passion.

If you ask too many questions that unmask their totem, they resort to insults. They label you an enemy of Nigeria and insinuate that you must have been paid by the PDP. There is no amount of critical engagement to which they can be challenged their responses are always the mantra of “FeBuhari!”, “Change!” and “Sai Buhari!” They have cultivated a vertical relationship with Buhari that is akin to that of a deity and its adherents.

The grouping of supporters who are voting either candidate simply because there is no better option are the Place-Holders. They are pragmatic. They know that apathy is not the best of choices, and, whichever way the door swings, Nigeria has to make a choice on February 14. This set of voters want someone in Aso Rock to hold the fort until one fine tomorrow when a better option would emerge.

Jonathan’s Place-Holders, for instance, know all his deficiencies but they still want him. They are of course worried things will get worse post 2015. If a President can run an inefficient administration in his first term, no one needs a weatherman to predict the temperature of his second term. They would have voted some other person but will rather put up with Jonathan’s faults than see a Buhari – an ex-dictator – march into Aso Rock. They desire a change in the polity but since they do not see one on the horizon, they hang on to Jonathan.

Buhari’s Place-Holders are similar although to a lot of extent they have transcended the sentiments of ethnicity, religion and have even forced themselves to overlook Buhari’s 20-month dictatorship. They want Jonathan out of Aso Rock at all possible costs and for that, they forgive Buhari’s foibles when he makes gaffes that expose the extent of his knowledge about how the economy functions. These categories of voters are convinced that no matter how bad things might get under a Buhari, it cannot be worse than what presently exists. Like a friend elegantly puts it, they just want to press the reset button and have Nigeria begin from hopefully, a better place. Besides, they think it would be telling if an incumbent Nigerian president could be voted out of office.

It seems to me that the Place-Holders on both teams are working towards the same ends – they are looking for a city that has foundations; a credible candidate in whom they can wholeheartedly invest. Since for this election it is rather too late to throw up such a candidate, is there a possibility after this election is over, that both Place-Holders can close ranks and work towards a choice candidate? One thing that matters most is not that either Jonathan or Buhari wins this election, but that Nigeria wins in the final count. To do that would entail a collective effort at seeking the right leadership. Will those who are making a choice regardless of their disgust this time be able to rise to that challenge?

Bravo

No Hausa man will vote development they will only vote this is my own

denko:
No Hausa man will vote development they will only vote this is my own

So the hausa votes that have gone to pdp under Obasanjo and Jonathan are of no consequence? Please park your bigotry in your own yard and let us breathe.

#change
#GMB
#APC