For The Undecided Voter: Determining the Lesser Of the Two Evils

There are 14 candidates vying for the post of president at Febuary 14th polls. On the surface it seems the electorates are spoilt for choice on who to elect as President, but upon critical analysis - separating the pretenders from the contenders - we are left with only two real options: PDP's incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan & the APC's candidate Major-General Mohammadu Buhari. When I speak to young, educated Nigerians, there's a general lethargy caused by a feeling of choicelessness. Many allude to being disappointed at the quality (or lack thereof) of the candidates thrown up by both political parties to head a country of over 170 million (majority of whom are teeming youths).

You'll hear phrases like "this is an election of the lesser of two evils" or ”a choice between the devil & deep blue sea". Renowned businessman and founder of ANAP Foundation, Atedo Peterside, posits that, in elections like this, undecided voters (who vote in the end), are likely to vote against candidates they're more afraid of (uncertain about) rather than vote affirmatively. Based on the foregoing, I'm going to try and evaluate both candidates, focusing solely on their perceived flaws and propose a method by which you (the undecided voter) can independently determine who is better (not quite as bad) for the nation.

Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
1. CORRUPTION
Even President Jonathan's ardent supporters would agree that this is one of Jonathan's weaknesses. His critics will go as far as saying this administration is on par with the ousted Alhaji Shehu Shagari's government, if not worse. Although Transparency International says we are less corrupt (Nigeria climbed up to 136th on its corruption index; in 2000, we were in last position), the common man's perception is different.
From the pension scam to subsidy thieves to Sanusi's allegation of unremitted $20b, this administration has been rocked with multiple corruption scandals. As if that wasn't bad enough, the President's body language and indeed his actions (pardoning criminals) and utterances (stealing is not corruption, Jim Nwobodo quote, not prosecuting corrupt officials but instead using only technology to fight corruption), paints a picture of a man who condones corruption.

"Corruption is a problem for all countries. A poor score is likely a sign of widespread bribery, lack of punishment for corruption and public institutions that don’t respond to citizens’ needs,” TI said.

Most Nigerians feel corruption is the bane of this nation. Solve this problem and you've taken off the shackles that has been holding the country back since independence.

2. SECURITY
Another area of apparent weakness in this administration is security. From the almost daily bomb blasts to the missing Chibok girls to the brazen atrocities committed by Boko Haram (all in the North), to the general sense of insecurity (commercial kidnapping and armed robbery in the South), the security situation in the country has never been worse.
Commenting on the performance of the Nigerian government in their fight against BH, President Obama said:
"The Nigerian government has not been effective as it needs to be in not only finding the girls but also stopping these extremist organization from operating in their territories." Social media is awash with disturbing images of the carnage caused by BH. Some have now become de-sensitized to news of their barbaric attacks - nothing shocks them anymore.
Boko Haram has grown in leaps and bounds in the last five years - from a ragtag insurgency to a daring, sophisticated terror group ransacking villages/towns and capturing territories.
All this against the backdrop of 4.4 trillion naira military spending since 2010 (not counting $1b borrowed to buy weapons last year).
In spite of the President's assurances that we are winning the battle against Boko Haram, there's a general feeling of hopelessness. No-one knows when the killings and bombings will stop. For whatever reasons (be it incompetence or sabotage), the government is at best, just about managing to contain BH - and not aggressively diminishing the threat posed by the vile terror group.


3. ECONOMY
Right now, the economy is a hot button issue. Not least due to the ongoing war of words between two of the nation's foremost economists: Minister of Finance/Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and former CBN Governor Chukwuma Soludo.
Thus, it's a bit more challenging trying to be objective with this issue because both sides can always use favourable indicators to back up their arguments; given that there's a plethora of indices to cherry-pick from. That being said, I'll reel out the stats in favour of, and against President GEJ. Readers can draw their own conclusions from them.

Pro-GEJ stats:
*Third fastest growing economy in 2015 - CNN Money
*Among Top 3 destinations for FDI in Africa - UN
*Africa's largest economy
*Steady diversification of the economy (oil now accounts for only 70% of government revenue)
*New automobile plants in Nigeria
*Exports up (cement, sugar, agricultural produce etc.)
*Food imports down due to Agricultural revolution, which has drastically increased domestic supply

Anti-GEJ stats:
*High Unemployment (24%)
*Poverty (71% in 2011- disputed)
*Depletion of foreign reserves and ECA
*Growing debt profile
*Exchange rates: Record lows of N211/$1
General Mohammadu Buhari
Given the seemingly obvious shortcomings of GEJ, it's not hard to imagine why the citizenry would be calling for change. But in spite of the frustrations felt by most undecided voters, the viable alternative to GEJ, the APC’s presidential candidate, General Mohammadu Buhari has his own areas of concern.

1. AGE (OF IDEAS)
To many, it does seem odd that a 72-year-old, former military dictator is the face of change in Nigeria today. Particularly after considering the fact that he has ruled Nigeria before and has run for the post three times prior. To some, he is part of the old era. Some even say it is unimaginable, unforgivable for a military ruler that overthrew a democratically elected government and truncated Nigeria’s then nascent democracy to be seeking the presidency in a new democratic dispensation. They feel he should be consigned to that regrettable chapter in Nigeria's history of coup d’états.

His critics argue that Nigeria in this digital age is too complex, too boisterous for a 72-year-old retired General to run. His supporters point to Ronald Reagan and Mandela (et al) who rescued their country at the tail end of the lives.

Aside the hysteria over GMB's age (which is a valid issue - considering how physically demanding the job is, and the enormous pressures faced by presidents), there's also a question of the age of his ideas.

We've all heard the bold campaign promises (tackling corruption head-on, ending Boko Haram insurgency in months, 2 million jobs for the youths, diversify the economy etc.), but what we haven't heard is the candidate himself, articulate a clear blueprint for achieving these lofty goals. His speeches are usually flat and bereft of new ideas. He doesn't seem to have a firm grasp of Nigeria's economy today. For every question thrown at him, he somehow manages to end up talking about corruption.

To many there's a disconnect between the portrayal of the person in the shiny posters and slick TV ads (face of change), and the candidate himself.

2. CREDIBILITY GAP
Given GMB is running on platform of Mr. Integrity & his anti-corruption credentials, it makes sense for him be 100% transparent in all his dealings. Therefore, he cannot afford to be seen as the typical Nigerian politician shrouded in controversies and scandals. Three issues:

A) Certificate Saga
The 2011 electoral act requires candidates to provide proof of their educational qualification. GMB attached an affidavit to his form which has raised constitutional questions about his eligibility to run for office. In an attempt to clear the air surrounding his WASC certificate, GMB addressed a press conference in Kano, where he tried (unsuccessfully I must add) to explain away the certificate issue. On the same day, a purported statement of result surfaced, issued by the Katsina State Government’s Ministry of Education of one "Mohammed Buhari". (It should be noted that neither GMB nor APC have claimed ownership of the said result.) Instead the party's publicity secretary Lai Mohammed summarily declared the matter closed. GMB himself, reacting to news of concerned citizens challenging his eligibility in court, rather disdainfully, said "we have satisfied INEC’s requirements and the plaintiffs should remain in court". The arrogance displayed by GMB and the APC in this matter is astonishing! If indeed you have nothing to hide, why not do the needful (Cambridge certified-true-copy of results)? Why have the cloud of perjury and forgery over your head going into a general election? Why not show the electorate (especially the undecided voters) you have nothing to hide and reinforce your much touted anti-corruption credentials? Mind you, should the allegations of perjury (I'm discounting forgery because GMB hasn't claimed the Katsina statement of result) prove to be true, it would amount to...wait for it...corruption!

B) Debate Dodger
GMB has turned down the opportunity to debate President GEJ twice, citing "unhidden bias" of the would-be organizers and/or panelists. Even if you believe the first debate organized by NEDG (BON/NTA/AIT) would give GEJ an unfair advantage, surely that argument holds no water with regards to the second group - Channels TV/Arise TV/ NPAN alliance. Channels TV is widely believed to be sympathetic to the opposition party and the rest are neutral (or their biases cancel out). Furthermore, should we the electorate, decide to be overly gracious to accept APC's allegation of conspiracy and imagined bias against their party, why then do they not take PDPPCO’s Publicity Director, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode’s challenge to organize a televised debate constituting whichever panelist they like and offer Nigerians an opportunity to see both candidates make their case to be president. It does seem rather odd that the ruling party is willing to a have debate (and even willing to bend over backwards to accommodate the APC's demands), but the opposition is stonewalling. It begs the question: why is the APC shielding GMB from a debate? What are they scared of? Again, this is an opportunity for GMB to come out and clear the air and set the record straight concerning the certificate saga amongst other issues. More importantly, the debate pitting him against GEJ, would provide GMB an ideal platform to articulate his plans and vision for Nigeria and challenge GEJ on his perceived shortcomings.

C) Questionable Associates
It is widely believed GMB's presidential campaign is largely being funded by Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Gov. Rotimi Amaechi. Apart from these APC party leaders, other prominent members of the party include: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senator Bukola Saraki, et al. All these questionable characters belong to the current political class and do not represent any change whatsoever. As president, how does GMB spearhead his anti-corruption campaign against this backdrop? Are we going to return to the days of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, when he used the EFCC as a veritable tool to persecute perceived political enemies? Or is GMB going to go against the same people that have invested heavily in his presidential campaign? Your guess is as good as mine. But be mindful of the timeless idiom: He who pays the piper dictates the tune.

3. INTOLERANCE
There's a running joke on social media that says: GMB looks like the kind of person that will ban Orijin. Silly as that may sound, there's a palpable fear among certain undecided voters on the implications of a Buhari presidency.
Given his antecedents as a military dictator, those fears are not totally unfounded. His regime was a bit high-handed, to say the least (Decree 4, political suppression, WAI, retroactive laws etc.)

I make bold to say that GEJ, in spite of his shortcomings, is the most democratic president we have ever had. Under his administration, he has allowed political space for the opposition and granted Nigerians unprecedented freedoms (he signed FOI Bill, press freedom, allowed open dissent etc.). He has also deepened our democracy by enabling INEC to conduct some of the most credible elections ever in our history. The fact that we are just a few days away from the elections, and the main opposition party feels they have a genuine chance of winning, is testament to this. (OBJ would never have allowed that.)

Many are wondering, should GMB win, are we going back to the days of political oppression and autocratic leadership?
His supporters would say, oh that was over 30 years ago, and besides you have to be heavy-handed as a military ruler to survive. Fair enough then. But GMB of now does seem irritated by criticism. In a BBC interview he granted in 2004, GMB implied press freedom was a distraction to the government, and insisted that the truth was no defence to the "crime" of embarrassing government officials. Only last week, his campaign organization threatened to sue NTA and AIT for airing a propaganda documentary against him.

GEJ as incumbent president has endured ten times the amount of criticism and abuse GMB is now receiving, and he seems unfazed by it all. One shudders to think what GMB will do as president.

CONCLUSION

When asked about the forthcoming general elections, it's little wonder, world renowned author, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie said none of the two main candidates inspire her. For a lot of undecided voters, the election has presented them with less than satisfactory choices for the post of president for a country as dynamic as Nigeria.

That notwithstanding, if one must perform his or her civic duty to vote, I suggest they take the time to critically analyze the main challengers, and in a methodical manner evaluate who they feel in good conscience, would be less deleterious to the country.

To help with this task, you can rule a table with each contender heading a column. And the rows would represent issues important to you.

For each topical issue, you should ask yourself, would candidate A or B be better, worse or continue with the status quo in dealing with this issue. Do that for as many issues you feel are pertinent to you.

Of course some issues may be of greater importance to you than others, for which you can assign double points.

At the end of this exercise, you should have a clearer picture of who you think would be "less harmful" to the Nigerian project.

The decision is yours!

Ugochukwu Onuoha
ugoonuoha@yahoo.com

Seun ishilove lalasticlala Obinoscopy Front Page pls. Would be voters will be better informed.
I know it's a bit long, but it's very objective and non-partisan. Thanks

Very insightful piece! From the analysis here, its obvious that although GEJ might not be the perfect candidate, but GMB is certainly not a match , so using your phrase, GEJ is by far the better evil!

@dadexcel thanks. The idea is for people to reach a decision based on issues important to them.