Nigeria's Postponed Election - A Powder Keg

Feb 8th 2015, 9:08



ON FEBRUARY 7th Nigeria's election commission announced that a poll due on February 14th would be pushed back by six weeks, citing security fears. The election, which will now be held on March 28th, will be the most important contest that Africa's most populous nation, and biggest economy, has held since its return to civilian rule in 1999. Nigeria has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies over the past 15 years. Last year it enjoyed a one-off statistical boost when its GDP was revised upwards to take account of the rapid growth in new sectors, such as mobile phones. It leapfrogged South Africa as the continent's biggest economy. Its population is also growing rapidly and is forecast to surpass that of America in the coming decades.



But Nigeria also has big problems. Until the generals handed over power to civilians 16 years ago, governments were usually changed at the barrel of a gun, rather than through the ballot box. Now the country may well see its first change of government by democratic means. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has run Nigeria since the restoration of democracy, faces the prospect of electoral defeat for the first time. For the moment neither President Goodluck Jonathan, who has been in office since 2010, nor his main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, fielded by the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), has a clear lead. Each commands about 42% of the vote, according to a recent poll.

Worryingly, however, polling data is showing a low level of public confidence that the elections will be free and fair. That increases the risks of violence should a losing candidate cry foul. In the 2011 elections, which are considered the fairest yet, almost 1,000 people died in election-related violence.



Nigeria is already something of a powder keg. Voting has, in the past, also tended to split somewhat along religious and ethnic lines. The predominantly Muslim north tends to support the opposition. The mainstay of support for Mr Jonathan's PDP has generally been in the more prosperous south. The worry is that, whoever wins, there will be violence in one or other part of the country: a victory by Mr Buhari, a northern Muslim, could re-ignite the insurgency in the Niger delta, the country's main oil-producing region; the re-election of Mr Jonathan, a southern Christian, could aggravate the violence in the poorer north, where Boko Haram, a jihadist group, has killed some 18,000 people in recent years. As many as 2,000 may have been killed in January alone.



Whoever wins the election will have their work cut out. Nigeria's growth has, in recent years, been fuelled by high oil prices. A fall in the price of crude has already led to a sharp depreciation in Nigeria's currency, the naira. Although Nigeria's economy has diversified away from oil in recent years, many economists are beginning to lower their forecasts of its economic growth this year. The country also suffers from dilapidated infrastructure, particularly in power-generation and transmission. Many businesses, from shopping malls to mobile-phone masts, have to install expensive diesel-powered generators to keep the lights on or the phones working. Some economists reckon that this weak power infrastructure is trimming Nigeria's economic growth by at least 3% each year. Fixing this ought to be among the first priorities of a new government.