My Opinion: The 2015 Nigerian Presidential Elections and Matters Arising

I have been following the 2015 presidential campaigns in Nigeria for some time now. A casual observer would notice the very interesting dynamics playing out on the scene. The two major political parties PDP and APC are at the forefront of the current campaigns and it can be assumed they also have the most following among the 70 million plus of eligible voters. The campaigns have been anything but issue-based, except for some throw-in here and there (Think OBJ’s recent book, Soludo’s letter et al). Maybe there aren’t much attractive issues to talk about from both camps.
However, my interest here is the very nature of these campaigns and what may likely play out after the results is announced. No, I am not thinking of any kind of violence or the routine “we will go to court” mantra. It’s the reality of governance that will be staring the eventual winner of the polls (irrespective of who wins – GEJ or GMB). I will attempt to put this in context.

Firstly, it is rather remarkable that some voters who, four years ago will never have remotely considered casting their lot with either GEJ or GMB are now leading the campaigns for these gentlemen. Here I will excuse the politicians. We all know what drives them to change their allegiances. I am talking about the young and upwardly mobile electorates; the social-media savvy youths, the average Nigerian. In my opinion three factors could be responsible for this:

1) They have truly not seen any difference in their economic circumstances between 2011 and now. Now this is very arguable. Depending on where your sympathy lies, you could very well convincingly argue this to your advantage. The Boko Haram onslaught in the Northeast part of the country in particular is seen as a weakness and a sign of un-seriousness or tardiness on the part of the GEJ’s government to tackle security issues. The spike in uncontrolled corruption (real or imagined) in the last four years is also a reason why the GEJ government should be taken to the cleaners. Every other economic setback is literally based on these – from the serious to the mundane. Beyond these, it would appear a change in government is the most attractive option. For the GMB supporters it offers hope, or it should. This leads to the next assumption:
2) They have been convinced through the media that a change will do the magic. Also very subjective. But here is where the crux of the matter lies. I am not sure we have seen so much media-based campaigns as strong as the current campaigns, especially from the APC and PDP. The APC seems to particularly have an excellent media-based campaign strategy than the PDP, leaving the latter in a reactionary situation. As someone somewhere noted, the PDP seem to be relying on past glory with regards to their popularity with the Nigerian electorate and on the national media outlets (NTA et al.). With the increasing accessibility of the Internet to the average Nigerian and the identity which social media seemingly confers, people’s opinions are being expressed in an unconstrained way and decisions on who to vote for are being shaped continuously. For those living outside the country, the only way to feel the pulse back home is through these social media as well. Little wonder then that going by what is out there, it will appear GMB is giving GEJ a real run for his money. Granted some commentaries could be sometimes very obnoxious to either parties, but they are nevertheless quickly shaping the debates around the elections and the parties’ candidates. The international audience easily feels this as well. For those who are not convinced about the effect of this social-media hype, the next assumption holds:
3) They are more comfortable with the current setup. For those on the GEJ camp, their convictions are that the status quo is the desirable. The reasons are hinged on the (rather boring) performance indicators: the transformation in the rail transport and aviation sectors, the rebasing of the nations GDP giving rise to the largest economy in Africa with the attendant international investments (FDIs, etc), the automobile industry revolution, the investments in the power sector, the agricultural sector revolution, the commitment to free and fair elections, comparative improvements in human rights which all readily comes to mind. The argument that given the known (GEJ) and the unknown (GMB) in contemporary Nigeria, the choice on who to vote for is self-validating within these contexts. A lot has perhaps benefitted them.

Unfortunately, ethnic and religious sentiments are being subtly and brazenly played up in the course of these campaigns. It will appear that whenever there is an election in Nigeria, these issues always have a part to play – for good or for bad. Everyone seems culpable – politicians and non-politicians. Unfortunately our decisions on who to vote for will always, to a greater extent or less, be influenced by this.

This takes me to my opinion on the two major candidates: GEJ and GMB.

These two have contested against each other before, with GEJ emerging winner in 2011. The dynamics then was obvious. The sentiments now are different. There is real possibility that GEJ could lose his seat on March 28th. But what are the odds?
An incumbent president in Nigeria is yet to lose a presidential election. The power of incumbency (whatever that is) is generally given as a reason. Ideally a sitting president is typically favored by the govt.-regulated national media, which incidentally, has a much wider local audience and spread; and given all the exposure to the detriment of his rivals or opponents. This is however being countered with the unregulated social media (as earlier cited).
The ‘war chest’ of a sitting president is always a factor. With elections in Nigeria still at a ‘basic’ level, it is much easier for a greater number of voters to be enticed with the enormous benefits at the disposal of the incumbent. Promises of better days ahead backed up with bags of rice and token projects here and there still sways majority of the local voters. The PDP still has a very loyal membership base across the country.
Although the PDP appears to have been weakened in several states and constituencies, its structures are still intact and capable of being deployed in full measure when the situation demands. In its folds are key ‘legacy’ politicians who have seen it all and can be considered as political strategists in their own rights.

For GMB, I am tempted to believe, (my opinion) that given his age, if he wins on March 28th, he might only have to go at it for a term (like Mandela did). If however he loses the elections, this might as well be his last outing politically. What are the odds?
GMB’s key asset for the APC is his ‘electoral-value’ especially in the Northern parts of the country. With some 22 million votes in 2011, the APC hopes to cash in on that in 2015 together with the votes from the rest of the country to glide to victory. This is not far-fetched.
With an amalgamation of mostly young key politicians previously in the PDP, there is the possibility that PDP’s ‘trade secret’ has been sold and the APC is better positioned to challenge for the presidency now.
The change mantra seems to have struck a chord with some young internet-savvy youths across the country. Although the seeming contradiction of a change with a 72-year old former military ruler does little to dampen such enthusiasm, more youths are choosing to ‘go with the flow’.
As previously pointed out, the campaign strategy of the APC seems to be more coordinated than that of the PDP. The impression created is that of a potent party that is very capable of muscling out the incumbent.

Both candidates in my opinion, can well lead Nigeria, and no doubt have best of intentions for the country. Nigerians must see and believe that first. The realities after the elections will not be wished away. The downturn in the country’s financial fortunes due to the dip in world oil prices will have to be handled carefully. Irrespective of the promises made before the elections, a lot will have to change. The economic and fiscal policies will have to be reworked. The security situation in the Northeastern part of the country will have to be conclusively dealt with. Whatever has given rise to the need for change must be qualitatively addressed.
When the results are announced, whosever wins – GEJ or GMB – must be ready to deal with these.

My final thoughts on these issues are this:

If the PDP losses the 2015 presidential elections to the APC, it will not be necessarily because GEJ and his party are guilty of all its been accused of. It will simply be a triumph of successful political campaign strategy of the APC over lackluster campaigns of the PDP.
If the APC losses the elections, then it would have proven that the PDP is still in the hearts and minds of majority of Nigerians.

LeadActor.


All comments are welcomed.

my opinion i #gej all the way.

In my opinion GEJ is far better than Buhari.
So am voting for GEJ for continuity.
In other news.
How you living Mr Ayo Fayose for exposing APC lies and propaganda?
Ans: In Mansion and Benzes giving headache to APC and it feels stupendous.
How you feeling Mr Femi Fani Kayode for dumping APC?
Ans: Am feeling good like never before.
APC is dead and is on the news.
How do you feel going back to PDP Mr Barcanista?
I feel at home.
Is been a long time coming and am glad am finally home.
Just like the biblical prodigal son i've realised my mistakes and gone back to PDP.
In Jonathan we have seen real and positive change.
Vote Wisely GEJ 2019