With the elections getting closer and Jonathan running to traditional rulers and groups in the south for votes, one can only predict from the surface that he will win the minds of the south west, which is arguably going to be the big decider in this election.

But on a closer look, the south west is the grassroot of the ACN, one of the major parties that went into alliance to form the new APC, the main opposition in the 2015 elections. Just like the PDP is deep rooted in the south south and south east, the APC is deep rooted into the political wards in local government councils in the south west states.

If you watch the body language of the monarchs in the south west, most of them have either been silent or neutral concerning Jonathan's re-election. This is a calculated silence. These monarchs do not want to be seen as agents of destruction of their new south-west political alliance which has been betrayed in the past under Olusegun Obasanjo's PDP and recently under Jonathan's government. While these monarchs can sway their loyalists into supporting the Jonathan's re-election bid, they can only do this when the political atmosphere is friendly, not when people have made up their minds. They have got to choose this time between having a vice president from their region, and selling their conscience and reputation over some thousands of dollars.

A friend of mine in one of the south west states said their traditional ruler who recently received some thousands of dollars from the president called them to a meeting in which they discussed the Jonathan's re-election. Immediately the issue was introduced, there were people already waiting to make sure the topic of Jonathan didnt sell through. Jonathan's people had already shared N3000 each to many youths in the community, yet they will not accept a Jonathan re-election bid. They simply pocketed the money and they'll only agree to talk to talk about Osibanjo's election. One of the issues discussed in the meeting was the slandering of the names of their sons and daughters, Tinubu, and Osinbajo, the latter who a court injunction potentially stopped his name from being immersed in dirt. The community people were visibly angry that the same candidate (Jonathan) coming to seek their votes is the same person who does not care to destroy the image of their sons and daughters. Their greatest annoyance was Osinbajo's case, where they said the government does not have regard for men of God. "If these people are guilty of what you are accusing them, why not take them to court, why tell the whole world that they are guilty when you are the one who has stopped EFCC from working" said one of the youths, another said "if we are talking about corruption, we should start from Jonathan and his wife, how many of our people are even in his government to start with". These clearly show the anger of the youths.

The sudden interest Jonathan developed for the south west is an indication of where the decider votes are going to come from. based on my prediction, the south east and most parts of the south south not controlled by the opposition will massively vote for Jonathan. This of course will depend on high voter turn out. From observations, there will possibly be an average voter turn out in the south east due to the disappointment of many people about Jonathan's performance. They will not vote for buhari, and they are not interested in re-electing Jonathan, so they will not come out to vote, and Yes they have their PVCs because it is now a valid means of identification, and many fear that they will be denied services without it.

In the north, there will be a high turnout. It is not surprising that northern voters usually travel back to their states to register for voting, and that is where they vote. The truth is that wherever you come from, once you enter the northern circle, even if you were supporting Jonathan, the atmosphere is suddenly changed with this mantra of "change" that you cannot conquer, and when you look at the people shouting "change" in the first place, you will agree that they deserve it, they are desperate for it and they act like their lives depend on it. Jonathan will however win in some north central states, but i am afraid no northern state will be a comfortable cruise for the president.

That leaves us with the south west, and my prediction is that, Yes, the south west will betray Jonathan IF the election holds on March 28

You are not far from the truth

You are only stating the obvious.

The question is how many state do you have in the south west ? How many are APC state?minus Lagos and what you would be left with might shock you anyway its your opinion the middle belt is the catch ,Jonathan coming around the south west is for the undecided and his endorsement makes any yoruba man who feels like voting him vote him out of his or her concise and his coming is not to win the whole south west which is impossible.

No one is betraying Jonathan, he will only reap the fruit of the politics of tribal and religious hatred he sowed.

buharisambisada:
The question is how many state do you have in the south west ? How many are APC state?minus Lagos and what you would be left with might shock you anyway its your opinion the middle belt is the catch ,Jonathan coming around the south west is for the undecided and his endorsement makes any yoruba man who feels like voting him vote him out of his or her concise and his coming is not to win the whole south west which is impossible.

yea. You are on point.

The only states PDP can hope for from the whole North central are Plateu and Benue. In Plateu it is not going to be easy ride for GEJ The only place that may ba backing him is Benue.
Kogi, Nasarawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara are all comfortable APC strongholds.
The issue is how many states in the South will go for PDP?

You lie Nasarawa pdp only gov apc,taraba pdp,niger pdp,kaduna shared vote pdp state tho, benue pdp,kogi pdp,jos pdp,zamfara pdp,bauchi,, jigawa pdp go and do your under ground work well zamfara is going pdp way I would not explain why just wait till march 28 and see

Ngasky:
The only states PDP can hope for from the whole North central are Plateu and Benue. In Plateu it is not going to be easy ride for GEJ The only place that may ba backing him is Benue.
Kogi, Nasarawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara are all comfortable APC strongholds.
The issue is how many states in the South will go for PDP?

fendorf:
You are not far from the truth

I think he is a bit away from the truth.
You see.. Yourubas are not deceiving GEJ, GEJ is the on who is deceiving GEJ.


07:28:28
Sun, Mar 15, 2015

It has nothing to do with betrayal. A vote for Buhari is the duty of every Nigerian with PVC. Things Must Change for Good.

Jonathan is deceiving himself.
Betrayal?
Do the people have any covenant with him?
Before you start putting up trash again, let us leave his mismanagement and his corrupt government aside.
1 did Jonathan betray the SW voters who voted for him in 2011?
2 Did he betray those who rescued him from under Turai's wrapper or not.
3 Did he betray Obasanjo and go back on his words.
4 Did he betray the millions of displaced people from the NE and the middle belt.( dereliction of duty).

Gathering a few unmandated and sharing stolen wealth with them does not amount to a CONVENANT with the people.
His convenant is with the peddlers of snake oil.
He is wasting his time in the SW.

op is very correct d method most south west want to adopt nw is dat chop Gej's dollar and vote im out of Aso rock

Seeing jonathan wining this coming election in south west is an illusion. If you think am lying just come to any newspaper stand in southwest and create a discussion of who will win in gej and gmb and see how people will start chanting gmb

how do you betray a lying stealing cynical failure?

what a stooopid title.

We are not fools in the SW, he should continue to kneel down everywhere and keep seeking for endorsement from touts like Gani Carpenter Adams and his fellow hungry old men. I still remember the Anambra election, when some nonentity called us Awolowo people and all sort of names, GEJ was sitting and laughing like a donkey and even went to ahead to call our elders tout.

March 28th is near, we shall see.

Op, you've spoken well. I still stand my ground, If SW should fall for this greek gift from Gej and vote for him then I will give up finally on the SW. Never in my life will I fight for any Yoruba cause again. Wole Soyinka and other illustrious Yoruba Sons fought hard for Jonathan to ascend the presidency, but what did they get in return? Abuses and Insults. Called our leaders "rascal", called ObJ "a motor park tout". Even though I don't like Obj, the truth must be told. Where were his so called "pillars of his administration" when Yoruba sons fought tooth and nail? Although we know they're AGIP (suffering from the Chop-Sand-Syndrome). Where were Edwin Clark, Patience Jonathan, and Asari Dokubo? Where were MASSOB et al?
Jonadumb must be butted out.

blackjack21:

I think he is a bit away from the truth.
You see.. Yourubas are not deceiving GEJ, GEJ is the on who is deceiving GEJ.


07:28:28
Sun, Mar 15, 2015

1bottle of Amstel malt for you.

Ngasky:
The only states PDP can hope for from the whole North central are Plateu and Benue. In Plateu it is not going to be easy ride for GEJ The only place that may ba backing him is Benue.
Kogi, Nasarawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara are all comfortable APC strongholds.
The issue is how many states in the South will go for PDP?

I stay in Benue bro. Buhari and Jonathan might get equal votes here sincerely.... Mark my words

buharisambisada:
You lie Nasarawa pdp only gov apc,taraba pdp,niger pdp,kaduna shared vote pdp state tho, benue pdp,kogi pdp,jos pdp,zamfara pdp,bauchi,, jigawa pdp go and do your under ground work well zamfara is going pdp way I would not explain why just wait till march 28 and see

Just to help refresh your memory, in 2011 even with no control of a single state and no party structure, Buhari posted the following results in the states you mentioned:

He won in Niger 64%, Kaduna 52%, Zamfara 66%, Bauchi 81%, Jigawa 58%

He secured 40% in Nassarawa, 35% in Taraba and Benue 21% Kogi 24% Plateau 25%

His fortunes have improved drastically that he is projected to win in Nassarawa, Taraba and Kogi with only Plateau and Benue up for grabs for GEJ.

U see everything that doesn't favor u as betrayal, Jonathan is busy sharing dollars among the obas and because of that u expect the southwest people to vote for him? Back in 2011 when they voted for him massively it wasn't betrayal abi?

They always betray. .

Jonathan ruined himself by using political sentiment 2 give sure p projects 2 pdp states n denying opposition party d same opportunities. What he forgot is dat those electorates in d opposition states voted massively 4 him in 2011. He is fooling himself abeg. These electorates in Majority of Apc state ll be utterly stupid 2 vote 4 him.

.

Talking about corruption not stealing,
The Federal Executive Council on Wednesday approved the purchase of N9.2billion worth of clean cook stoves and wonder bags for rural women under the National Clean Cooking Scheme.
Muhammed said the N9.2billion inclusive of Value Added Tax was approved for the procurement of 750,000 units of clean cook stove and 18,000 wonder bags.

http://www.punchng.com/news/fg-to-buy-cooking-stoves-with-n9-2bn/

Sad and sick government

Me I didn't see anyone with these stoves and wonder bags the government allocated such huge amount to procure.

Sai Baba

Sai Buhari

#ihavedecided

click like to vote GMB/PYO

socialmediaman:
With the elections getting closer and Jonathan running to traditional rulers and groups in the south for votes, one can only predict from the surface that he will win the minds of the south west, which is arguably going to be the big decider in this election.

But on a closer look, the south west is the grassroot of the ACN, one of the major parties that went into alliance to form the new APC, the main opposition in the 2015 elections. Just like the PDP is deep rooted in the south south and south east, the APC is deep rooted into the political wards in local government councils in the south west states.

If you watch the body language of the monarchs in the south west, most of them have either been silent or neutral concerning Jonathan's re-election. This is a calculated silence. These monarchs do not want to be seen as agents of destruction of their new south-west political alliance which has been betrayed in the past under Olusegun Obasanjo's PDP and recently under Jonathan's government. While these monarchs can sway their loyalists into supporting the Jonathan's re-election bid, they can only do this when the political atmosphere is friendly, not when people have made up their minds. They have got to choose this time between having a vice president from their region, and selling their conscience and reputation over some thousands of dollars.

A friend of mine in one of the south west states said their traditional ruler who recently received some thousands of dollars from the president called them to a meeting in which they discussed the Jonathan's re-election. Immediately the issue was introduced, there were people already waiting to make sure the topic of Jonathan didnt sell through. Jonathan's people had already shared N3000 each to many youths in the community, yet they will not accept a Jonathan re-election bid. They simply pocketed the money and they'll only agree to talk to talk about Osibanjo's election. One of the issues discussed in the meeting was the slandering of the names of their sons and daughters, Tinubu, and Osinbajo, the latter who a court injunction potentially stopped his name from being immersed in dirt. The community people were visibly angry that the same candidate (Jonathan) coming to seek their votes is the same person who does not care to destroy the image of their sons and daughters. Their greatest annoyance was Osinbajo's case, where they said the government does not have regard for men of God. "If these people are guilty of what you are accusing them, why not take them to court, why tell the whole world that they are guilty when you are the one who has stopped EFCC from working" said one of the youths, another said "if we are talking about corruption, we should start from Jonathan and his wife, how many of our people are even in his government to start with". These clearly show the anger of the youths.

The sudden interest Jonathan developed for the south west is an indication of where the decider votes are going to come from. based on my prediction, the south east and most parts of the south south not controlled by the opposition will massively vote for Jonathan. This of course will depend on high voter turn out. From observations, there will possibly be an average voter turn out in the south east due to the disappointment of many people about Jonathan's performance. They will not vote for buhari, and they are not interested in re-electing Jonathan, so they will not come out to vote, and Yes they have their PVCs because it is now a valid means of identification, and many fear that they will be denied services without it.

In the north, there will be a high turnout. It is not surprising that northern voters usually travel back to their states to register for voting, and that is where they vote. The truth is that wherever you come from, once you enter the northern circle, even if you were supporting Jonathan, the atmosphere is suddenly changed with this mantra of "change" that you cannot conquer, and when you look at the people shouting "change" in the first place, you will agree that they deserve it, they are desperate for it and they act like their lives depend on it. Jonathan will however win in some north central states, but i am afraid no northern state will be a comfortable cruise for the president.

That leaves us with the south west, and my prediction is that, Yes, the south west will betray Jonathan IF the election holds on March 28

I would have agreed with your analysis 100%, if not for your conclusion that, the west will betray Jonathan on 28th of March.
It is a matter of individuals making their choices, some will for him, while others will not.
Like Henry Ford said, " you don't build a reputation on, what you will do, but on what you've done".

Jonathan is a monumental fool, he served for 6 years without reckoning with the southwest, forgetting our votes is an instrument that place him forward in the last poll. Top officials in Nigeria today, none is from southwest.

Does he think southwest people are dumb and blind? he is moving around now to distribute rush hour packages to southwest Leaders and Kings, with the motive of gaining their votes and that of their people.

It's a NO for the clueless one, Southwest is gone already.

It's time to march for change.

Meanwhile,Sai Buhari

vanilson:
Talking about corruption not stealing,
The Federal Executive Council on Wednesday approved the purchase of N9.2billion worth of clean cook stoves and wonder bags for rural women under the National Clean Cooking Scheme.
Muhammed said the N9.2billion inclusive of Value Added Tax was approved for the procurement of 750,000 units of clean cook stove and 18,000 wonder bags.

http://www.punchng.com/news/fg-to-buy-cooking-stoves-with-n9-2bn/

Sad and sick government

Me I didn't see anyone with these stoves and wonder bags the government allocated such huge amount to procure.

Sai Baba

Sai Buhari

#ihavedecided

click like to vote GMB/PYO

'What do you call corruption?'
Patience Jonathan explains
----------------
“In abroad, if a young boy
works so hard and buy a copter,
we praise the boy. But in
Nigeria, if a young boy works so
hard and buy a copter, we say
he’s corrupt. Why?" - Patience
Jonathan

You fail to underestimate the power of time and change i do work with people from zamfara their governor and anpp apc failed them i mean the youth and they all complain bitterly in zamfara and they plan to vote pdp go amd find out or call somepne from zamfara now sule lamido state has changed people now have more awarness buhari can't have the figures of 2011 again.

PassingShot:


Just to help refresh your memory, in 2011 even with no control of a single state and no party structure, Buhari posted the following results in the states you mentioned:

He won in Niger 64%, Kaduna 52%, Zamfara 66%, Bauchi 81%, Jigawa 58%

He secured 40% in Nassarawa, 35% in Taraba and Benue 21% Kogi 24% Plateau 25%

His fortunes have improved drastically that he is projected to win in Nassarawa, Taraba and Kogi with only Plateau and Benue up for grabs for GEJ.

@OP.

How can the act of seeking change from a horrible status quo , through an election, be called "betrayal" when that is what happens year in and year out in other nations of the world ? Do average Nigerians, the real victim of the misrule of GEJ, owe Jonathan any loyalty for anyone to now deem his rejection at the poll a "betrayal"? It is GEJ who has betrayed Nigerians horrendously with his misrule. They voted him in to make a difference yet he chose to reject ordinary Nigerians to then work for militants, AGIPs (any government in power), crooks, scammers, political jobbers and a political Oligarchy class.

It is Jonathan who betrayed Nigerians and he deserves their electoral rejection for turning his back on the average man, woman and child. I get your point OP but let us use words wisely because using words out of context can create the wrong impression.

The Yoruabas are not 'betraying' jonathan. Jonathan has failed and he must go back to otuekwe. QED

buharisambisada:
You fail to underestimate the power of time and change i do work with people from zamfara their governor and anpp apc failed them i mean the youth and they all complain bitterly in zamfara and they plan to vote pdp go amd find out or call somepne from zamfara now sule lamido state has changed people now have more awarness buhari can't have the figures of 2011 again.

Self gratification and reassurance is allowed if it makes one feel good.

LordMecuzy:



I stay in Benue bro. Buhari and Jonathan might get equal votes here sincerely.... Mark my words

I was in Benue state for about 3 weeks in January. You're not far from the truth.