EURASIA
REVERSES
EARLIER
PREDICTION,
SAYS: buhari ‘ll
win 2015 Presidential Election.
World largest political risk consultancy,
Eurasia Group, has released its
forecast for the 2015 presidential
election due in two weeks, predicting
victory for the candidate of the All
Progressives Congress (APC), General
Muhammadu Buhari.
Eurasia Group said a Buhari win
would be made possible by the
intensity of supports for his
candidature, lacklustre grassroots
campaigning by the PDP and the anti-
rigging measures put in place by the
Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC).
It said the APC candidate would
record a 60% victory against his main
rival, President Goodluck Jonathan,
who is seeking re-election.
In an earlier forecast for the
presidential election in August last
year, Eurasia Group had predicted a
victory for Jonathan, with a 75% per
cent margin against Buhari.
But in the new estimate yesterday, the
political risk advisory said the
indicators for the president’s electoral
success had switched in favour of the
APC flag bearer. “We change our
election forecast from a narrow win
for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to
a victory for opposition leader
Muhamadu Buhari (60% probability),”
Eurasia Group stated in the forecast.
“The electoral map is tilting towards
Buhari in the swing regions of the
southwest and middle belt, while high
turnout in his core northern base will
offset Jonathan’s advantage in the
Niger Delta,” it added.
It equally predicted that under Buhari,
“reliance on technocratic, business-
oriented senior officials will lead to
constructive policy initiatives.”
Other factors that would seal the
defeat of Jonathan, it said, were the
new permanent voting cards and card
readers that would “sharply reduce
the level of rigging seen in 2011, when
Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide.”
Another factor was the “enthusiasm
gap between the candidates and
widespread desire for change” in the
country, according to the group.
“While we expected the electoral map
to favor Jonathan, current trends
suggest that the swing regions may
side with Buhari, including the
Christian-majority and heavily
populated South-West around Lagos.
That could be the decisive
demographic factor in the election.
“Jonathan won the South-West and
middle belt handily in 2011, but faces
an uphill task now. Buhari has
reached out to the southwestern
Yoruba community and brought them
into the upper ranks of his campaign
and potential administration, in a
political alliance of the country’s two
largest ethnic groups (the Hausa and
Yoruba). In contrast, Jonathan has
struggled to make inroads with either
group.”
The group said the APC had suffered
fewer defections compared to the
PDP, despite inducements from the
ruling party, adding that its ability to
weather the storm showed it was “a
relatively united coalition whose
members have confidence in the
prospects of victory.”
Read full story at http://
dailytrust.com.ng/sunday/index.php/
international/19903-buhari-will-
win-28-march-presidential-election-
with-a-wide-margin-eurasia-group