THERE is no doubt that Nigeria is going through one of the toughest periods in its democratic history, writes Uju Okoye, a graduate student in Political Science from McMaster University, Ontario, Canada, specialising in comparative politics with a regional focus on Africa.

The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision in February 2015 to postpone the federal elections for six weeks, due to security concerns in the north-eastern states affected by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram, shocked and angered the Nigerian electorate and many international observers.

INEC’s decision increased existing tensions in what has become Nigeria’s most contested election since 1999, when former military ruler General Olusegun Obasanjo, backed by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), beat his rival Chief Olu Falae.

While many voters branded the postponement as a dirty trick by President Goodluck Jonathan - who seeks to unfairly win the election - closer examination shows that delaying the election might have handed the win to the opposition party All Progressives Congress (APC), led by General Muhammadu Buhari.

Nigeria is enjoying its longest period of civil rule since its independence from the British in the 1960s and has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, recently surpassing South Africa as the continent’s largest economy.

However, corruption and insurgent groups have severely affected the lives of Nigerians, raising doubts over the ruling party’s governing capacities.

The PDP has won every election since 1999, thanks to an informal arrangement under which the presidency alternates between a candidate from the predominantly Christian south and one from the Muslim-majority north.

However, in the run-up to the 2015 election, the PDP splintered and the APC has emerged as the main opposition force.

On March 28, 2015, President Jonathan will face General Buhari, whom he had defeated in the 2011 poll. After that election, a dissatisfied General Buhari claimed the PDP had rigged the result.

Sectarian violence followed, which led to 800 people losing their lives and a further 65,000 being displaced. A crimes against humanity case on General Buhari’s name has been submitted to the International Criminal Court.

The INEC claims its decision to postpone the 2015 election came on the advice of the military, which said it could not guarantee the safety of the electoral commission in key areas where Boko Haram is active.

Both General Buhari and President Jonathan have narrowly escaped assassination attempts during the campaign trail, giving weight to the argument that insurgents are not simply against one candidate but against the very principle of a free and democratic Nigeria.

Many voters say this delay is a PDP strategy to win time and sabotage an opposition that had started topping opinion polls. However, there is more evidence to suggest that the INEC’s decision hurts President Jonathan’s popularity considerably more than General Buhari’s.

Goodluck Jonathan is Nigeria’s first president not to have links to the military, but his tenure has been criticised for its lacklustre response to Boko Haram and he has been at the centre of multiple corruption scandals.

There is no doubt that General Buhari will attract a significant protest vote. While Nigerian politics are often played according to religious lines, the retired major general has capitalised on his military experience and austere lifestyle to attract voters outside his traditional northern support base.

Thanks to some deft political manoeuvres, he has emerged as the wronged party because of the INEC’s decision, which has dealt a major – perhaps mortal – blow to the President’s camp.

But General Buhari has a checkered past. In 1983, he overthrew the feckless civilian administration of President Shehu Shagari and justified the coup by employing a strong nationalist narrative, painting himself as the strong man who would re-establish order and governance.

Despite the oil boom in the 1980s, Nigeria’s economy struggled, on the back of high inflation which made basic goods virtually unaffordable for the average person.

General Buhari drastically reduced social expenditure, scrapped subsidies on social services and opened health and education to private contractors. Under a nationalist agenda of rejecting outside help (including the IMF), he regulated the imports of foreign goods and tried to bring in line the country’s balance of payments. His heavy-handed reforms backfired and the country’s standard of living decreased dramatically.

In the face of decreasing public support, he was deposed in the 1985 military coup and jailed for 40 months.

How Nigeria will look after the election on March 28, 2015, is anybody’s guess. While it is unclear now if the recently formed transnational military coalition will succeed in defeating Boko Haram in time for the presidential poll, the terrorist group has suffered a string of setbacks lately, losing control of several towns. However, thanks to a renewed military offensive in the north, Nigeria’s security situation is on the upswing.

Many voters are likely put aside General Buhari’s past and rely on his promise to revamp Nigeria’s security. It remains to be seen if he can actually deliver on those promises

GEJ till 2019!!!

Story for the gods. Handwriting on the wall shows Jonathan as the conquering Lion of the tribe of Nigeria. Buhari is too outdated to be a Councillor needless to say President.

Who benefit from whhhat...

Those Kings,Pastors,Bloggers,useless group and all miserable thieves wey the clueless one bribe with DOLLARS

Modify your topic sharparly before some people go take you do suya.

This piece is just a narrative capturing the writer's personal opinions. However, I daresay that the postponement was designed to favour the incumbent judging by the significant deflation of groundswell of support for the opposition GMB. Notwithstanding, I still see APC slightly edging the election.

*rings terry.g's bell and screams...

GBAGUAN! ! !

No one benefits from your ProBomb. Mama pess pikin

@OP, I think you are the one who will benefit from it most.

The embarrassment U will get from this post will reset your brain and your spelling skill.

Its "Postponed" not "Prospond".

Diariz godu o

Ofcus those deceiving Jonathan and promising him votes as if they have the remote control of their followers

PDP and the masses. PDP has been going from strenght to strenght and reaching out to people especially in IMO.
While the masses now have the opportunity to ask questions and make informed choices

I benefited from the "Prospond" elections.