It's barely 10 days to the elections.... I can't wait for it to be over and lets get back to normalcy!!
But before then, lets do a state by state analysis and lets come out with permutations and postulations as to the likely winners!!

I have taken time to study the different electoral landscape, I have spoken with people from virtually all Geopolitical zones and I have used both historical electoral data as well as current realities to arrive at my postulations.

Now if you observe, GEJ has been visiting the South West consistently over the last three weeks and has been spending nights on end.....hmmm, It is not for nothing. If APC is wise, they wouldn't take that for granted.
This election would be decided by two factors 1) The south West voters. 2) Voter turnout. And whosoever wins will do so by a very narrow margin. It is a very close election. At the end of this analysis, you'll understand why.


These stats are based on INEC PVC collection rates(12th March 2015) and are approximated to the nearest decimal. Also it is based on an assumption of 100% turnout with is practically impossible.

NORTH CENTRAL
States-------------PVC Collected--------GEJ--%----Num---------------------GMB--%-----Num
Benue--------------------1.6 m-------------------75----1.2m-----------------------------25-----0.4m
FCT-----------------------0.6 m-------------------50----0.3m-----------------------------50-----0.3m
Kogi----------------------0.9 m-------------------60----0.5m-----------------------------40-----0.4m
Kwara--------------------0.9 m-------------------40----0.5m-----------------------------60-----0.4m
Nassarawa---------------1.0 m-------------------60----0.4m-----------------------------40-----0.6m
Niger---------------------1.7 m-------------------30----0.5m-----------------------------70-----1.1m
Plateau-------------------1.5 m-------------------75----1.1m-----------------------------25-----0.4m

______________________________Total GEJ=====4.6m___________Total GMB======3.6m

NORTH EAST
Adamawa-----------------1.4m-------------------55----0.8m-----------------------------45-----0.6m
Bauchi---------------------1.8m-------------------20----0.4m-----------------------------80----1.4m
Borno----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-----------------------------85----1.2m
Gombe---------------------1.1m-------------------30----0.3m-----------------------------70----0.8m
Taraba---------------------1.3m-------------------65----0.9m-----------------------------35----0.5m
Yobe------------------------0.8m------------------15---- 0.1m-----------------------------85----0.7m

_____________________________Total GEJ======2.7M____________Total GMB=====5.2M

NORTH WEST
Jigawa---------------------1.8m-------------------15----0.3m------------------------------85----1.5m
Kaduna--------------------3.2m-------------------45----.1.4m------------------------------55----1.8m
Kano-----------------------4.1m-------------------20----0.8m-------------------------------80----3.3m
Katsina--------------------2.6m-------------------15----0.4m-------------------------------85----2.2m
Kebbi----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m
Sokoto--------------------1.5m--------------------20----0.3m-------------------------------80----1.2m
Zamfara------------------1.4m--------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m

_____________________________Total GEJ======3.6M_____________Total GMB=====11.2M

SOUTH EAST
Abia----------------------1.2m--------------------85----1.0m-------------------------------15----0.2m
Anambra-----------------1.7m--------------------85----1.4m--------------------------------15----0.3m
Ebonyi-------------------0.8m---------------------85----0.7m--------------------------------15----0.1m
Enugu--------------------1.2m---------------------85----1.0m--------------------------------15----0.2m
Imo-----------------------1.7m--------------------80----1.4m--------------------------------20----0.3m

_____________________________Total GEJ======5.5m_____________Total GMB=====1.1m

SOUTH SOUTH
Akwa Ibom--------------1.6----------------------85----1.4m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Bayelsa------------------0.6----------------------85----0.5m---------------------------------15----0.1m
Cross River--------------0.9----------------------85----0.9m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Delta---------------------1.9----------------------85----1.6m---------------------------------15----0.3m
Edo-----------------------1.3----------------------70----0.8m---------------------------------30----0.4m
Rivers--------------------2.1----------------------80----1.7m---------------------------------20----0.4m

____________________________Total GEJ======6.9m______________Total GMB=====1.6m

SOUTH WEST
Ekiti---------------------0.5m---------------------60-----0.3m--------------------------------40----0.2m
Lagos-------------------3.7m----------------------55----2.0m---------------------------------45----1.7m
Ogun--------------------0.9m----------------------40----0.4m---------------------------------60----0.5m
Ondo--------------------1.1m----------------------60----0.7m---------------------------------40----0.4m
Osun--------------------1.0m----------------------35----0.4m---------------------------------65----0.7m
Oyo---------------------1.6m----------------------45----0.7m---------------------------------55----0.9m

____________________________Total GEJ=======4.5M_____________Total GMB======4.4M


Now the totals:
GEJ=== 4.6 + 2.7 + 3.6 + 5.5 +6.9 + 4.5=---- 27.8m
GMB===3.6 +5.2 + 11.2 + 1.1 +1.6 + 4.4=----27.1m

Very very close. Barely 700,000 in difference in GEJ's favour but thats well within a statistical margin of error so it can swing any way.

Now my observations...

First, this election would be determined by voter turnout in both candidates strongholds.
If the SOUTH SOUTH and SOUTH EAST dont come out enmasse and the North West comes out in droves, then that would be a difficult case for GEJ.
Secondly, the SOUTH WEST is the only region left up for grabs. Like I said earlier, it is the reason GEJ is constantly in the region these days spending 5 nights at a stretch on one particular occasion,visiting Yoruba elders and holding meeting with Youth AND Nollywood. The goal is simple, get those sitting at home to come out on March 28th.The young people, the villagers, the touts, the market women. Get an extra 500,00 voters here and you have the election in your hands.

APC should be worried except they don't understand the dynamics. Yemi Osibanjo shouldn't be anywhere else right now but in the South West working the votes. Visiting churches and going to villages.


One reason APC should be worried is because in my postulations, I gave an edge to Buhari despite certain obvious realities.
For instance, I ignored historical data and awarded 15% of votes in the South South GEJ strongholds to Buhari. Its impossible for Buhari to score 1.1million votes in the south east. But for statistical balance I awarded all the same.
Also based on historical analysis and practical realities, Jonathan should score above 15% in many North West states, but I awarded 15% for statistical balance. Despite these distortions, GEJ still ends up with slightly higher numbers.

Er, what does this mean?

Op, thank you for this postulation of yours.

I have my own statistics that I've been trying to bring to the forum. Mine is quite close to what you have. I am an ardent APC and Buhari supporter and I don't support the notion that it is going to be a landslide for Buhari despite my belief of Buhari winning this forthcoming election. I believe a Buhari's narrow victory over Jonathan is going to happen. I am seeing large turn-out in the North and low turn-out in the South-west and South-east. I believe the turn-out of South-south is going to be higher than that of Southwest. I don't see Buhari winning more than 17 States while Jonathan winning 19. Jonathan is expected to win more states than Buhari but Buhari will surely have between 2 million votes and 4 million votes more than Jonathan.

My little disagreement with you is putting Adamawa and Nasarawa in GEJ's column. Political landscape has changed in those areas. The Christians in the Adamawa axis are very angry with Jonathan and are willing to vote for Buhari. Buhari won in Nasarawa last time and he's going to win there again. I don't see how Jonathan is getting up to 10% of the votes in any of the North-western states except Kaduna where GEJ is expected to be competitive.

As it stands today, Buhari is going to win all the States he won in 2011 and add Lagos, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Adamawa to his column this time around. Buhari is expected to do well in South-south and South-east. I have been surprised to see a lot of Igbos supporting Buhari this time around, unlike in 2011. There is so much anger against the incumbent. People really want change and ready to give Buhari and APC a chance. They want to see what change looks like.

kogi state is missing from north central

PVC

emiye:
kogi state is missing from north central

THANKS. I've corrected it.

Basic data analysis point of departure should be previous elections data as a basis, more so because its still the same candidates running, then points to consider:

1. Political climate changes - Against & For each candidate, in Each State e.g. Running on the same platform or different platform

2. Economical climate

3. Religious influence

4. Cultural influence vs. Educational awareness

4. Perception changers / Deal breakers or Game changers

5. Probability of fairness & credibility of the voting itself in each state

sincerenigerian:
Op, thank you for this postulation of yours.

I have my own statistics that I've been trying to bring to the forum. Mine is quite close to what you have. I am an ardent APC and Buhari supporter and I don't support the notion that it is going to be a landslide for Buhari despite my belief of Buhari winning this forthcoming election. I believe a Buhari's narrow victory over Jonathan is going to happen. I am seeing large turn-out in the North and low turn-out in the South-west and South-east. I believe the turn-out of South-south is going to be higher than that of Southwest. I don't see Buhari winning more than 17 States while Jonathan winning 19. Jonathan is expected to win more states than Buhari but Buhari will surely have between 2 million votes and 4 million votes more than Jonathan.

My little disagreement with you is putting Adamawa and Nasarawa in GEJ's column. Political landscape has changed in those areas. The Christians in the Adamawa axis are very angry with Jonathan and are willing to vote for Buhari. Buhari won in Nasarawa last time and he's going to win there again. I don't see how Jonathan is getting up to 10% of the votes in any of the North-western states except Kaduna where GEJ is expected to be competitive.

As it stands today, Buhari is going to win all the States he won in 2011 and add Lagos, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Adamawa to his column this time around. Buhari is expected to do well in South-south and South-east. I have been surprised to see a lot of Igbos supporting Buhari this time around, unlike in 2011. There is so much anger against the incumbent. People really want change and ready to give Buhari and APC a chance. They want to see what change looks like.

I know Adamawa quite well. Factors that can affect Adamawa negatively is if IDPs are not allowed to vote in ADAMAWA. Most of the IDPs are Christians. The Christians in Adamawa axis appear more angry with Islam and what they perceive as Fulani domination. They would probably not be voting Jonathan, but against Fulani domination. I hope Nigeria can go past Ethno Religious voting patterns but in 2015 especially in the north that is a voracious factor.
Nassarawa in 2011== GEJ= 408,000. GMB=279,000.

As per Jonathan getting 10% of Northern votes, I'll tell you how politics works. As long as there is a strong Governorship candidate and other party stalwarts, they have the capacity to pull especially village votes to the side of thier party. In Sokoto for instance, Bafarawa would ensure that his village votes Jonathan the same way George Akume of Benue would ensure his village votes APC. In Bauchi all those on Muazu's payroll, all those on the FCT minister's payroll, all those on the Governor's payroll would ensure thier hordes of followers thumbprint umbrella, same as Oyegun would ensure his power structure in Edo state votes APC. Remember there is no candidates name or picture on the ballot paper, its just party symbol and name. So while you assume, less than 10%, I guess it would be more than.

For Lagos, the amount of IBOs and South South indigenes present would definitely have an impact on the elections.


All in all, its a very close election where every vote counts.

I await your own postulations, it would be nice to analyze it.

Close enough.

The statistics is based on 100% turnout yes? Would be nice if it is based on 70-75 to be more realistic

I have no problems with your analysis provided you are convince Jonathan will win.

PapaBrowne:


I know Adamawa quite well. Factors that can affect Adamawa negatively is if IDPs are not allowed to vote in ADAMAWA. Most of the IDPs are Christians. The Christians in Adamawa axis appear more angry with Islam and what they perceive as Fulani domination. They would probably not be voting Jonathan, but against Fulani domination. I hope Nigeria can go past Ethno Religious voting patterns but in 2015 especially in the north that is a voracious factor.
Nassarawa in 2011== GEJ= 408,000. GMB=279,000.

As per Jonathan getting 10% of Northern votes, I'll tell you how politics works. As long as there is a strong Governorship candidate and other party stalwarts, they have the capacity to pull especially village votes to the side of thier party. In Sokoto for instance, Bafarawa would ensure that his village votes Jonathan the same way George Akume of Benue would ensure his village votes APC. In Bauchi all those on Muazu's payroll, all those on the FCT minister's payroll, all those on the Governor's payroll would ensure thier hordes of followers thumbprint umbrella, same as Oyegun would ensure his power structure in Edo state votes APC. Remember there is no candidates name or picture on the ballot paper, its just party symbol and name. So while you assume, less than 10%, I guess it would be more than.

For Lagos, the amount of IBOs and South South indigenes present would definitely have an impact on the elections.


All in all, its a very close election where every vote counts.
I await your own postulations, it would be nice to analyze it.

I quite agree with you on this because all I see is tug of war between the duo in my dream. And this might lead to division in the country which we did not pray for. Let us all pray for a peaceful and violence free election. One Nigeria is our Joy sentiment apart

most people who make predictions about this forthcoming election always make one common error I.e giving Edo state to GEJ.I have said it here before, that the reason GeJ won here last time,was because the gov supporter him and appealed to all ACN members and Edolites to vote for him.This time around things have changed,there is nowhere the gov goes to campaign that he won't mention GMB's name.If you ask 20 people here who they will vote for,at least 15 is for GMB.I commend your effort,but you should do more thorough investigation, and not basing your conclusions on 2011 result.

Your hypothesis is somewhat flawed. We dont know how this date came about and how you estimated the percentages for GEJ and GMB what theory are you working with. The only assumption you said you made was that voting turnout would be 100%.

You need to go back to the board and check - past voters, present voters, pvc collection in the states, states with high chances of violence. states with low chances of violence. historically pdp or apc states, machinery in pdp and apc states, major achievement or failures in pdp and apc states. States where stomach infrastructure is most likely to be shared. Taking into note, atleast some part of the votes will be rigged.

These are my own analysis :
North Central. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%
North East. GEJ 20%. GMB 80%
North West. GEJ 30%. GMB 70%
South South. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South East. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South West. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%.
Putting into consideration the number of pvc collected I think GMB would be returned as the. Winner.

This is the most mature analysis and counter analysis ever read on Nairaland where people disagree without insults. We should learn to throw points not punches.

As for me, GEJ is winning, wish I could give you the reasons like the great men above me.

One thing I know is that elites don't vote as the election day is a rest day to them but the real voters are peasants, farmers, artisans etc who depend largely on other factors and not all the big turenshi we speak here.

This assumption is the closest to reality we can get from a PDP supporter

You need to make room for turnout difference

The North has a serious beef for the incumbent and I expect a large turnout of about 90%. PVC collection data shows who are more prepared for the elections

The South especially SE and some part of SW especially Lagos would witness a lower turnout in the range of 50-60% of PVC collected

Factor this in and you would see a victory for GMB.

You are free to dispute anything I said

I see GEJ winning with between 5 to 7% overall lead. It is important for the winner to have 25% in at least 24 states, please note.

Former Ministers and political appointees will also be a factor in these elections. There have been quite a number of appointments under GEJ - that factor will also add up to the incumbency edge.

There are a couple of deals that have been struck beneath the table and out of our view - they are usually the silent deciders of electoral victories especially when the contest is stiff like this.

Over the last 6 weeks leading to elections, who has worked harder? Goodluck or Buhari?

Buhari would win convincingly unless the election is rigged how they do it I don't know but whosoever wins I see big problems in nigeria.

PapaBrowne:

NORTH CENTRAL
States-------------PVC Collected--------GEJ--%----Num---------------------GMB--%-----Num
Benue--------------------1.6 m-------------------75----1.2m-----------------------------25-----0.4m
FCT-----------------------0.6 m-------------------50----0.3m-----------------------------50-----0.3m
Kogi----------------------0.9 m-------------------60----0.5m-----------------------------40-----0.4m
Kwara--------------------0.9 m-------------------40----0.5m-----------------------------60-----0.4m
Nassarawa---------------1.0 m-------------------60----0.4m-----------------------------40-----0.6m
Niger---------------------1.7 m-------------------30----0.5m-----------------------------70-----1.1m
Plateau-------------------1.5 m-------------------75----1.1m-----------------------------25-----0.4m

______________________________Total GEJ=====4.6m___________Total GMB======3.6m

you might want to change what you postulate on Benue & Nassarawa, the dynamics have changed in those places especially Benue where APC have swelled their ranks with political heavy weights, also the general feeling/action of insecurity and non payment of workers salary doesn't put PDP on the choice list. Even PDP supporters in Benue say they will vote differently in the presidential, besides those in the villages now have an anthem 'se soo or Ijaw la ga, a wase ga' meaning 'we don't want the Ijaw man, he has done nothing', in Benue its 65% - 35% in favour of GMB. For Nassarawa, its 60% - 40% in favour of GMB

From your postulations, North east is too positive for GEJ, expecially in Taraba, Adamawa, while gombe might be understandable coz of a sitting governor seeking 2nd term.
Kaduna is too positive for GEJ, it was roughly 45% for GEJ in 2011, it must be somewhere around 30% now.

Benue and nassarawa too positive for GEJ, Benue will be around 6o% for GEJ. while nasarrawa is around 40% for GEJ. GEJ will likely get more than 50% in FCT., Even kogi at 60% for GEJ is suspect, but permissible.

In the south east, i will raise the bar for GEJ from 85% to 92% in the states ,excluding Imo, where he will get around 75%.

In the South south, again, it is 92% in 4 states(Akwa Ibom, cross rivers, Delta and Bayelsa) , 75% in Rivers state, and 65% in Edo state

In South West, Lagos too positive for GEJ, 40% is realistic, Ogun at 40% too positive, 30% appears more objective. Oyo at 45 % also too positve, 35 % is more realistic.

sincerenigerian:
Op, thank you for this postulation of yours.

I have my own statistics that I've been trying to bring to the forum. Mine is quite close to what you have. I am an ardent APC and Buhari supporter and I don't support the notion that it is going to be a landslide for Buhari despite my belief of Buhari winning this forthcoming election. I believe a Buhari's narrow victory over Jonathan is going to happen. I am seeing large turn-out in the North and low turn-out in the South-west and South-east. I believe the turn-out of South-south is going to be higher than that of Southwest. I don't see Buhari winning more than 17 States while Jonathan winning 19. Jonathan is expected to win more states than Buhari but Buhari will surely have between 2 million votes and 4 million votes more than Jonathan.

My little disagreement with you is putting Adamawa and Nasarawa in GEJ's column. Political landscape has changed in those areas. The Christians in the Adamawa axis are very angry with Jonathan and are willing to vote for Buhari. Buhari won in Nasarawa last time and he's going to win there again. I don't see how Jonathan is getting up to 10% of the votes in any of the North-western states except Kaduna where GEJ is expected to be competitive.

As it stands today, Buhari is going to win all the States he won in 2011 and add Lagos, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Adamawa to his column this time around. Buhari is expected to do well in South-south and South-east. I have been surprised to see a lot of Igbos supporting Buhari this time around, unlike in 2011. There is so much anger against the incumbent. People really want change and ready to give Buhari and APC a chance. They want to see what change looks like.

your postulation is so wrong. No state in the federation that GEJ won't get at least 25%. Furthermore, only kwara will be a marginal gain for Buhari due to the saraki's factor in NC. Buhari won't get 5% in the entire SS and SE. GEJ will win at least a state in the NW and get over 32% of total votes there. NE is a 50/50. Bottomline SW to swing GeJ and a total margin of 6 to 8million win for GEJ. Buhari will try but, will be rejected the 4th and final time! Nigeria sai Goodluck!

hmmmm. nice one.

OP. . PapaBrowne

Nice attempt! Even though I am Pro-GMB, I will give you thumbs up for a good attempt.

Of course I disagree with some areas;

(1) S/S and S/E
I think you even gave GMB more than he may get in some states. I am honest enough to accept that he won't do as well as you predict esp. in Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Ebonyi and maybe abia.

But I think you under-estimate him badly in Edo state!!! (APC state, Oyegun factor, Edo people hate PDP. in spite of Oshio's declining popularity, the enormous crowd that met the APC rally in benin was unprecedented - http://www.naij.com/375105-edo-state-receives-general-buharis-team.html)
I think you also under-estimate him badly in Imo and slightly in Rivers.

But one major factor in this region is the numbers! Besides the fact that they are not large, the VOTER APATHY here is huge trust me (like you admitted might be the case)! Some people will not vote for GMB but they won't for GEJ either. They largely believe that he has failed! and he admitted that! (E/W road, 2nd Niger bridge etc) So apart from Akwa-Ibom and maybe Bayelsa, people will just stay at home!

(2) N/C
Fair enough but Nasarawa and Kogi were badly predicted in my opinion.

Realities on ground are much more different than 2011. 'nuff said.

(3) N/E
Again, good attempt and I agree that GEJ might do a little better than 15% in some cases. But your biggest flaw here was to give Adamawa to GEJ! Haba! How did you arrive at that. Take note, ALL the major states affected by BH are voting enmasse for GMB! Because they feel Jonathan FAILED THEM! Think about it. How would you feel if someone could wait till election period to attempt to save 15,000 LIVES!! Now we are winning the war with the exact same strategies that could have been used long ago to even prevent BH from gaining so much ground.

(4) N/W
Here, spot on except ASTONISHINGLY Kaduna!! LOL!!
The factors that could have helped GEJ here are gone
(a) Sambo's unpopularity overwhelmed by GMB's popularity
(b) Yero's massive failure totally smashed to pieces by El-rufai's IMMENSE popularity
(c) Southern Kaduna "GEJ christian votes" nullified by Osibanjo's slot!

Did you see the empty stadium that greeted GEJ in their rally? It was a shame! and half of the people were chanting Sai Buhari. 'nuff said

(5) Finally S/W
This will be a shocker! I am shocked you believe GEJ's dollar spending and Oba bowing will prove significant. Don't get me wrong, it will have an effect, albeit minor one! Let me not mention the Osibanjo factor, let me not going into the other states. Just lagos.

You gave lagos to GEJ?!! CHISOSSSS!!! That's the major blunder you committed! Bookmark this - GMB WILL FLOOR GEJ in LAGOS!!
Too many factors I would need to write an essay on it - Tinubu, Less gullible elite, Fashola's stunning performance, Anti-Bode George, remember the anti-GEJ fuel subsidy was HUGE in lagos?, Tinubu. . ah let me stop. No need. Let's just watch and see.

All in all, despite your mis-calculations, good attempt and kudos to the respondents for not resorting to insults. Just present your counter analysis.

Cheers

emiye:
From your postulations, North east is too positive for GEJ, expecially in Taraba, Adamawa, while gombe might be understandable coz of a sitting governor seeking 2nd term.
Kaduna is too positive for GEJ, it was roughly 45% for GEJ in 2011, it must be somewhere around 30% now.

Benue and nassarawa too positive for GEJ, Benue will be around 6o% for GEJ. while nasarrawa is around 40% for GEJ. GEJ will likely get more than 50% in FCT., Even kogi at 60% for GEJ is suspect, but permissible.

In the south east, i will raise the bar for GEJ from 85% to 92% in the states ,excluding Imo, where he will get around 75%.

In the South south, again, it is 92% in 4 states(Akwa Ibom, cross rivers, Delta and Bayelsa) , 75% in Rivers state, and 65% in Edo state

In South West, Lagos too positive for GEJ, 40% is realistic, Ogun at 40% too positive, 30% appears more objective. Oyo at 45 % also too positve, 35 % is more realistic.

I like your assumptions but they are basically off the cuff and based on what you feel. Thats the way I feel too but the realities are different.
Your assumptions negate the fact that most voters are rural and don't make thier decisions on the same performance indices as do city dwellers. Benue is strong for GEJ. I understand the Akume and Gemade factor but it will be same as it was in 2011 and most of those votes would come from city dwellers. As for Nassarawa, the ethno religious sensitivity has changed as the previously laid back Eggon tribe and others are less likely to support a Fulani.
I agree with you on the south east and south south but the 85-15% benchmark was for statistical balance. South West is the battleground. Turnout of Ibos and south south indigenes would be a major factor. Plus Jimi Agbaje's followers would have a play. About the south west, forget what you read on the papers. Take a look at Osun state election results. Omisore scored 300,000 votes vs the incumbent Aregbesola's 400,000 votes. That's the kind of pattern SW politics follows.

All in all, let the ideal man win!

tuniski:
your postulation is so wrong. No state in the federation that GEJ won't get at least 25%. Furthermore, only kwara will be a marginal gain for Buhari due to the saraki's factor in NC. Buhari won't get 5% in the entire SS and SE. GEJ will win at least a state in the NW and get over 32% of total votes there. NE is a 50/50. Bottomline SW to swing GeJ and a total margin of 6 to 8million win for GEJ. Buhari will try but, will be rejected the 4th and final time! Nigeria sai Goodluck!

I don't think GEJ will win a state in the NW except maybe Kaduna swings his way which is hard but possible. NE at 50/50 is only possible if Borno and Yobe voters are not able to come out due to the insurgency. It will be a close election but GEJ is more likely to win.

DRANOEL:


you might want to change what you postulate on Benue & Nassarawa, the dynamics have changed in those places especially Benue where APC have swelled their ranks with political heavy weights, also the general feeling/action of insecurity and non payment of workers salary doesn't put PDP on the choice list. Even PDP supporters in Benue say they will vote differently in the presidential, besides those in the villages now have an anthem 'se soo or Ijaw la ga, a wase ga' meaning 'we don't want the Ijaw man, he has done nothing', in Benue its 65% - 35% in favour of GMB. For Nassarawa, its 60% - 40% in favour of GMB

No sir, elections don't work straight up like that. Benue and Nassarawa are PDP fair and square. Osun state hasn't paid salaries but that wouldn't mean PDP would trump APC there. For Akume, Gemade and Ortom, thier impact would be felt, but not so much as to improve radically to meet your 65% for APC postulations---impossible. Even core northern states like Gombe would probably superceed that postulation.

PapaBrowne:


I know Adamawa quite well. Factors that can affect Adamawa negatively is if IDPs are not allowed to vote in ADAMAWA. Most of the IDPs are Christians. The Christians in Adamawa axis appear more angry with Islam and what they perceive as Fulani domination. They would probably not be voting Jonathan, but against Fulani domination. I hope Nigeria can go past Ethno Religious voting patterns but in 2015 especially in the north that is a voracious factor.
Nassarawa in 2011== GEJ= 408,000. GMB=279,000.

As per Jonathan getting 10% of Northern votes, I'll tell you how politics works. As long as there is a strong Governorship candidate and other party stalwarts, they have the capacity to pull especially village votes to the side of thier party. In Sokoto for instance, Bafarawa would ensure that his village votes Jonathan the same way George Akume of Benue would ensure his village votes APC. In Bauchi all those on Muazu's payroll, all those on the FCT minister's payroll, all those on the Governor's payroll would ensure thier hordes of followers thumbprint umbrella, same as Oyegun would ensure his power structure in Edo state votes APC. Remember there is no candidates name or picture on the ballot paper, its just party symbol and name. So while you assume, less than 10%, I guess it would be more than.

For Lagos, the amount of IBOs and South South indigenes present would definitely have an impact on the elections.


All in all, its a very close election where every vote counts.

I await your own postulations, it would be nice to analyze it.

Broda wakeup Nassarawa is on a lockdown for APC I stay there...

PapaBrowne:


I like your assumptions but they are basically off the cuff and based on what you feels. Thats the way I feel too but the realities are different.
Your assumptions negate the fact that most voters are rural and don't make thier decisions on the same performance indices as do city dwellers. Benue is strong for GEJ. I understand the Akume and Gemade factor but it will be same as it was in 2011 and most of those votes would come from city dwellers. As for Nassarawa, the ethno religious sensitivity has changed as the previously laid back Eggon tribe and others are less likely to support a Fulani.
I agree with you on the south east and south south but the 85-15% benchmark was for statistical balance. South West is the battleground. Turnout of Ibos and south south indigenes would be a major factor. Plus Jimi Agbaje's followers would have a play. About the south west, forget what you read on the papers. Take a look at Osun state election results. Omisore scored 300,000 votes vs the incumbent Aregbesola's 400,000 votes. That's the kind of pattern SW politics follows.

All in all, let the ideal man win!

Yoruba's will want to vote for Thier own candidate . then Thier various state political parties can win other elective post

GEJ will have 100% Nigerian Vote

OP pleas dont wake up

I shown much interest in the post initially but when I start to check the Op analysis state by state I moved to the next post.imagine the analysis in Lagos,Oyo,Ogun,Kwara and even in Kogi state.so op go and do more research.