I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.

In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities: Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each
candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585

TOTAL - 16,879,650


BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996

TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967

TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013

TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the
strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.

1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate

AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 23,354,495.5

BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 32,549,776.5

VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191,
685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5= 27,451,042.05

BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5= 28,453,240.45

VERDICT: BUHARI WINS by slim margin


3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :

JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6= 24,670,045.65

BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

VERDICT: BUHARI WINS by slim margin


A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give:

1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast

2. Jonathan strong areas returning between
75-90% votes cast

3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast

4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states
50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

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GEJ TILL 2019