The presidential election of Saturday,
March 28, in which Gen Muhammadu
Buhari of the All Progressives Congress
(APC) won, is, to say the least, a game-
changing happenstance. Apart from a
change of baton from the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC, the
historic outcome of that election will
define tomorrow’s governorship and
state Houses of Assembly elections.


Considering Buhari’s landslide victory
in Kano, Bauchi, Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa,
Kaduna and Zamfara states, there is no
gainsaying that gubernatorial
candidates of the APC in these states
could be having easier rides to the
government houses of the respective
states.

There is general feeling that there may
be a bandwagon effect in the voting
pattern in the April 11 governorship
and state assembly elections in the
affected states. Similarly, the results of
the last election equally show that APC
is in a comfortable position, having
swept the majority votes in five of the
six states in the region. Some political
pundits, however, believe that the
governorship election may not follow
the same pattern, especially in Lagos,
Oyo and Ogun states.
Permutations and Defections
After the presidential election,
politicians have been hopping from the
PDP to the APC in what is clearly a
singular desire to be part of the system
and partake in the sharing of the
national cake, that is, if it will still be
business as usual. Hence, political
analysts and, indeed, the populace
have been engaging in political
permutations of what could occur in
states hitherto considered as core PDP
strongholds and vice versa for the APC.



Abia State



Mrs Eunice Uzor Kalu, leader of the
Reality Organisation in the South-East
and mother of former Abia State
governor, Dr Orji Uzor Kalu, and her
members have joined the APC. This
necessitated a high-powered thank you
visit from Buhari to Imo State.
The Ohanaeze Ndigbo also endorsed
APC for Abia. This was contained in a
statement signed by Chief Ralph
Obioha, Caretaker Committee chairman
of Ohanaeze in Enugu.
Abia, however, presents an interesting
spectacle, owing to the sharp political
division in the state. For the
governorship race, it is a straight battle
between PDP, APGA and PPA. Sir
Chikwe Udensi is of the PPA, while Dr
Alex Otti is flying the flag of the All
Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)
while Dr Okezie Ikpeazu is of the PDP.
Although, the PDP won the presidential
and National Assembly elections in the
state, the unpopularity of the governor,
Dr T.A Orji, may count against the
governorship candidate of the PDP.
Besides, the clamour for a governor of
Ukwa-Ngwa extraction may work in
favour of Otti, the former Diamond
Bank chief executive. The axis has
never produced a governor before,
despite having a high population.Jigawa State
The defection of the deputy governor
of Jigawa State, Alhaji Mahmud Gumel,
and others may have radically altered
the political paradigm of the state
ahead of the gubernatorial election in
the state.
This therefore has given room for the
Buhari factor which has become very
strong and all-consuming. A new
Jigawa is likely to emerge after the
coming polls. The issue of emirate
dichotomy, the rivalry between
Governor Sule Lamido and former
Governor Taminu Turaki will have a
minimal role to play. The coast is clear
for the “Change” hurricane




Kwara State



Senator Gbemisola Saraki and the PDP
youth leader, Chief Segun Olawoyin,
are the latest in the state to defect
from the PDP to the APC.
The Kwara State governorship election
is expected to be a three-way affair as
the ruling APC, the PDP and Labour
Party (LP) are the three major parties
out of the 16 parties that fielded
candidates for the election. The
governorship poll is expected to be the
most keenly contested in the history of

present ruling oligarchy.



Kaduna State



The PDP has won all governorship polls
in the state since 1999. Pundits are of
the view that while the PDP is in the
best position to retain its seat
because of incumbency advantage, the
APC is apparently having an edge in
terms of popularity.
The governorship candidates of the
PDP and the APC, Alhaji Mukhtar
Ramalan Yero and Malam Nasir el-
Rufa’i, are more noticeable and vocal
across Kaduna State. Both candidates
have spent the last three months
campaigning for votes as the election
get closer. Both seem to have similar
stances in terms of manifesto.
Zone one (Zaria) and Zone three
(Southern Kaduna) senatorial districts
used to be the strongholds of the
ruling PDP since 1999. In Zone three, it
received the overwhelming majority of
votes in all the previous elections.
The PDP won more votes in the last
presidential elections in Zone 3. Major
Gen SBS Biliyock (retd), Ruth Jummai
Ango, former member House of Reps
and 144 immediate past councillors
from eight local government areas
have played key roles in this direction.
But Nasir el-Rufai has a popularity
following him from when he was FCT
minister where he made landmark
achievements that are still
remembered today.
On his part, Yero inherited the
governor’s seat after his boss, Governor
Patrick Yakowa, died in an air crash
along with former national security
adviser, Gen Patrick Azazi.



Niger State



Before last Saturday’s presidential and
National Assembly elections, recent
developments in Niger State had
shown that all was not too well with the
ruling PDP in the state. This became
more apparent with the recent
defection of deputy governor, Alhaji
Ahmed Musa Ibeto, to the APC in the
run-up to this election. Adams Erena
pulled out with 5,000 critical
stakeholders just as the Gbagyi Elders
Forum, led by Abubakar M. Bosso,
endorsed the APC.
The defeat suffered by Governor Aliyu
Babangida himself in his senatorial
ambition in the just concluded election
was, indeed, the last straw that broke
the camel’s back. He lost to an APC
candidate, David Umaru.
With these developments, it is very
obvious that Niger is already a lost
state to the PDP. If not for anything
else, Buhari’s victory will further
consolidate APC’s hold in the state. If
the same voting pattern is recorded in
the Saturday’s governorship election,
Alhaji Abubakar Bello of APC may very
well be on his way to Government
House.



Benue State



Benue is another state where there
may be an interesting battle between
the APC and PDP. The state has been
under the control of the PDP since the
return of civil rule, but the perceived
maladministration of the state by the
present government seems to have
negatively affected the popularity of
the party. This is one state where
teachers were owed over one year
salaries by the state government.
Pundits had earlier tipped the PDP to
retain its number one position in the
forthcoming election, given its
popularity and spread of structures in
the state, especially in the southern
senatorial district which has
consistently remained in the
mainstream party since 1999.
But this view has changed after the
pronouncement of Buhari as president-
elect and the defeat of the incumbent
governor, Gabriel Suswam at the
senatorial poll. Unless there is a
substantial change in voting pattern,
victory is looking the way of APC
candidate, Chief Samuel Ortom.
Gen Lawrence Onoja, Chief Agbo Oga
and former chief of staff to David Mark
are key elements that will have impacts
in the election.



Adamawa State



The stake is a bit higher in Adamawa
State where former Vice President and
former presidential aspirant of the APC
for the 2015 election, Atiku Abubakar,
calls the shots.
Given the abysmal level of performance
of the PDP in the last presidential
election where APC swept all the three
senatorial seats, one can make a guess
that the PDP has lost state.
Although many of the aggrieved PDP
chieftains have finally reconciled with
Malam Nuhu Ribadu, the PDP
candidate, the continued wrangling in
his party may affect his chances to
garner the required votes as many PDP
members have either defected to other
parties or made up their minds to vote
for candidates of other parties in the
governorship election. The defections
of Silas Zwingina, Bello Tukur, Ahmed
Barata and Dr Idi Hong to APC may yet
play a critical role.



Rivers State



In Rivers State, a straight battle line
has been drawn between the
candidate of the PDP, Nyeson Wike,
and Hon Dakuku Peterside of the APC.
Wike has been through a particularly
controversial and rancorous political
journey to actualise his dreams of
occupying the Brick House after
Governor Chibuike Amaechi, an Ikwerre
man like him.
Wike, a former Minister of state for
education, is a burly political pugilist
who leaves nothing to chance in his
quest for victory. He is from the upland
part of the state while the main
challenger, Peterside, is from the
riverine area which has never produce
a governor.
Peterside, a federal lawmaker
representing Andoni/Opobo/Nkoro
constituency in the House of
Representatives, was the commissioner
for works during the first tenure of
Amaechi. He grew up in Ogoni, where
he spent over 10 years and
participated in the various Ogoni
struggles in 1990, where the Ogoni bill
of rights was put in place.
While the fresh victory of his party,
APC, may give him an added impetus,
the bullish tendencies and grassroots
network of Wike may swing the votes.
The campaigns in River have largely
been keen and violent, with APC
claiming recently that as many as 55 of
its members had been killed by PDP
thugs.
In the March 28 presidential election,
the PDP had a moon slide, returning
over a million votes for President
Jonathan; APC cried foul, alleging that
the poll was massively rigged.



Gombe State




The battle for the soul of Gombe is
between two accountants: the
incumbent governor and the PDP flag
bearer, Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan
Dankwambo, and Alhaji Muhammed
Inuwa Yahaya of the APC, who was
former Governor Danjuma Goje’s
commissioner of finance for eight
years.
The likelihood of the Buhari factor
affecting the chances of Dankwambo is
real as the APC got two senators and
four House of Representatives’ seats,
leaving the PDP with one senator and
two members during the March 28
presidential and National Assembly
elections.
Dankwambo seems to be having
trouble with public perception as many
see him as being unwilling to empower
the people of the state. This perception
is giving him a tough time to convince
the electorate to renew his mandate.
Many analysts, however, posit that
Yahaya may have an edge over
Dankwambo, considering the high
number of aggrieved PDP aspirants
who, after spending huge sums and
ample time, were edged out of the
race.

Sai APC.
If you dont buy this idea, lagoons can be found across the country.

While Lagos surely goes to the PDP... There is no two ways about that. Juxtaposing the two major candidates vying for the govnorship seat, Agbaje stands out. He has lagosians vote!